Dear Oil SCREAMongers: REALITY CHECK!

To the OP:

You said to Apacheman:

People are still acting as if nobody has ever heard about the ordeal and we have to get the word out

And you are doing the same thing with a different twist.

We are all aware we need to reduce our dependency on oil. Everyone of us. We've known it for decades. The political climate waxes and wanes.

You started this thread in seemingly "attack mode". It hasn't worked for you so please don't continue to copy what others have posted in other threads, to somehow try to "incriminate" them, placing yourself as the one who has a true handle on this. You don't. Nobody does.

You've made some valid points, granted. But can't you do without attacking other members and the threads they've produced to make them?

Without angrily stating we all use oil and should consequently kill ourselves?

I'm not without my own ire in these threads. Just seeing the word "NUKE" gets it going. I haven't tried to temper it, because I don't want to.

My thoughts are we have some fantastic threads on this issue. Insightful, technical, passionate, and instructive. There are threads based on the technical aspect, and others more emotion-based and exploratory. I like both kinds. What you call fear mongering, I see as exploring possibilities.

If you don't like the emotional threads, then why not try to temper your own? Especially when it's not directed to the issue, but to the innocent people trying to figure it out?

I do share your optimism to a point. We will find a way to fix this mess.
BP has an open arena for suggestions, but as far as I can tell, reject all suggestions. They go into a black hole and are never heard from again.
Is it pride? I wonder.

My entire post may be OT. If it disappears, I'll know why.

reply to post by IgnoranceIsntBlisss


Thank you. At last a post about the 'oil thing' that contains some (well, a lot) of common sense.

First of all - well done for mentioning the fact that 11 people died due to the oil rig explosion - this is a fact that seems to have been forgotten, and that's a shame. I feel for these people's families and friends.

I've been reading around on ATS and have noticed (well, you can't really miss 'em) all the scaremongering "the sky is falling" type threads with ridiculously dramatic titles, and frankly I'm sick of it. I've avoided posting on any of them because it seems that anyone with a modicum of common sense is ignored - I guess its like that saying "never let the facts get in the way of a good story".

I mean really - people have even started wondering if the drilling has gone right down to the earth's core - do these people not realise how stupid they sound? Sorry to be so blunt, but it is getting ridiculous and I have no idea why the mods don't curb some of these threads - most of them, although with different hollywood-esque titles, are just talking about the same thing anyway, I don't know why they should all have their own threads.

As for your points, OP, about all the items that require the use of oil - plastics and stuff - excellent point. I think the people who declare "we need to stop using oil right NOW" need to step back a bit and really think about what they're saying, then see if they can 'put their money where their mouth is' and truly live without oil if they feel that strongly about it.

Rant over

Originally posted by ladyinwaiting
You started this thread in seemingly "attack mode". It hasn't worked for you so please don't continue to copy what others have posted in other threads, to somehow try to "incriminate" them, placing yourself as the one who has a true handle on this. You don't. Nobody does.

You've made some valid points, granted. But can't you do without attacking other members and the threads they've produced to make them?

Read his post. He "attacked" me, directly. I didn't start the thread titled 'Dear apacheman'.

Without angrily stating we all use oil and should consequently kill ourselves?

Then stop trying to make me and everyone else feel that way.

If you don't like the emotional threads, then why not try to temper your own? Especially when it's not directed to the issue, but to the innocent people trying to figure it out?

Those threads arent as 'sexy'. Look at the threads I linked in. Most of them hardly have any flags / stars, or replies. Then go look at the sensationalist threads et al and they're 180 flags and 8 pages of replies. Those threads push down the 'lame' threads on this issue and others.

I do share your optimism to a point. We will find a way to fix this mess.
BP has an open arena for suggestions, but as far as I can tell, reject all suggestions. They go into a black hole and are never heard from again.
Is it pride? I wonder.

They just finally sent me a reply that they're processing my submissions, just yesterday, after THREE weeks! Too cheap to hire enough people to go thru them in any useful amount of time. I've taken the position that they're ignoring them now, but eventually willl become profitable in cleanup using our ideas.

reply to post by IgnoranceIsntBlisss


Sorry if you are so sensitive that pointing out facts that contradict your opinions seems like a personal attack to you. It isn't.

When this catastrophe started you were yelling (large fonts, bolded, etc) at everyone that the Exxon Valdez was far worse, that the Ixtoc blowout was far worse, that it would be fixed soon, that oil seeps are perfectly natural, that bacteria would eat all the oil and there's nothing to worry about.

You've been wrong on pretty much every count, but have never acknowledged it, you just change the subject or set an impossible standard (stop using plastics, oil, etc if anyone thinks this is a tragedy).

You have consistently said that the Gulf will swiftly recover, that the economic losses are inconsequential in the larger scheme of things, etc. None of that is true or factual either.

The Gulf that I knew is dead and gone: just because you can't seem to project farther than next week won't change that. That doesn't mean that we can't save some of it if we accept the enormity of the disaster and act swiftly and massively.

In another thread you berate me for thinking that tens of billions of cubic feet of methane is a severe problem, asking whether I'd rather have oil or gas. That isn't a choice: we have both and both are huge problems. I've been harping on it because I've seen no one address it properly. It's an invisible problem, both figuratively and literally. There isn't a shred of doubt that methane levels 10,000 times normal is deadly and dangerous to most of the life in the Gulf...are you trying to make the case that it is somehow beneficial to sealife?

I've pointed out to you several times that the bacteria that eat the oil create a couple of seperate problems: anoxia (they deplete oxygen in the water, deep down that oxygen is not easily or quickly replaced) and they give off fresh water as another byproduct, changing the salinity of the water. These are not inconsequential problems. The more oil they eat, the more CO2, the more H2O, and the less O2 there is. One problem traded for several others.

This is a complex emergency with many different problems evolving out of the original one, and we haven't even begun to percieve the mid-term consequences yet, much less the long-term ones.

I've offered my solutions to the problem before, but the situation has changed and most of the solutions everyone of us have offered has been mooted by the developing crisis. The well casing is broken and deteriorating: capping is no longer an option. The best idea I've heard so far is to make a skirt big enough to encompass the BOP and anchor it to the seafloor to isolate the leak as much as possible and just keep pumping it out until the relief wells can try to kill it.

One of the difficulties in trying to communicate with you and others of your ilk is that whenever anyone looks at the problem and foresees (frequently accurately, I might add) the potential problems coming down the pike you go off on rants about doomsaying. A few years ago we had severe wildfires around here. Early in the day I went up the hill and observed the progress of the fire. I realized in short order that there was no way they would be able to stop it from reaching where I live. So despite the fact that it was miles away, I immediately began preparing the ground to fight it, soaking the yards, trees, and plants, packing important and cherished items, getting the critters out, and generally preparing to evacuate. Ten hours or so later the fires roared over the hill and destroyed most of my neighbors' homes. I stayed on after evacuating evryone else and did what I could to help stop it. The fire crews managed to halt it two driveways up from mine, at one point there was about a 290 degree arc of fire around my house.

A lot of my neighbors ignored the fire assuming that it would be stopped long before it hit us, becuase we have wildfires fairly frequently and they never got this far before, we've the best fire crews, etc.

Your logic seems the same as my neighbors': because we've never had an oil blowout on this scale before you keep measuring it by past ones.

This beast is different.

I appreciate what you are trying to do.

I understand why you don't want to acknowledge the enormity of the disaster.

But please stop yelling and screaming at everyone who disagrees with you, it doesn't help. Debate and debunk where you can, but also acknowledge when you're wrong and the valid points others are making instead of labelling absolutely every concern expressed as fearmongering and panic.

All possibilities must be examined, even extreme ones. It is far better to have thought through and develop a plan to deal with the rare and extraordinarily unlikely occurence.

If BP had done this we wouldn't be in this mess. But alas, they thought like you.

You've been wrong on pretty much every count, but have never acknowledged it, you just change the subject or set an impossible standard

lol, this is dead on. he started a thread called oilapocolypse

IgnoranceIsBlisse's Lame Oilapocolypse Thread where I shoot him down

He used the same lame tactics. Read my last post on page 8 of that thread where he begged me to quote him. You are so right apacheman, this guy hasn't said one thing that is right. he took the stance early on that this wasn't that bad, then I show him he's wrong and but he still doesnt' fess up. he says 'show me where i'm wrong' so I show him and he just twists around what he says. he goes on to say 'but i said it was going to effect people, its not bad but it is' so he takes both sides of it after he is proven wrong and then claims that he was never wrong.

i had great fun shooting down his twisted logic

anyway no wonder none of his film projects haven't gone anywhere. obviously because he can't maintain a coherent argument in a debate, and i can extrapolate from that, that he can't possibly write a coherent film script.


the fact is ignorance IS Bliss for IgnoranceISBliss,

a word of advice for him, its ok to admit your wrong when your wrong, you will be a better person for it and you might actually feel better.

Originally posted by insideNSA
IgnoranceIsBlisse's Lame Oilapocolypse Thread where I shoot him down

Oh, so you want to carry your little pissing match over here now do you? Enjoy my response to you over there.

It's funny you talk about my "twisted logic" when you've never even read a logical fallacy list before.

Read my last post on page 8 of that thread where he begged me to quote him. You are so right apacheman, this guy hasn't said one thing that is right. he took the stance early on that this wasn't that bad, then I show him he's wrong and but he still doesnt' fess up.

You havent' shown anything. You've trolled my thread, which is about the oil not being THE END OF THE WORLD, for weeks now, saying I'm wrong, and now that you've finally learned to use quote brackets you still haven't shown that. Me asking questions and being skeptical about worst case scenario estimates doesn't make me wrong about anything.

anyway no wonder none of his film projects haven't gone anywhere. obviously because he can't maintain a coherent argument in a debate, and i can extrapolate from that, that he can't possibly write a coherent film script.

You're a nasty little person, the perfect spokesperson for environMENTAList extremists actually. Technically, the films I've released aren't exactly constrained by a script. The ones that are scripted I haven't gotten around to releasing. It's a lot of work (for no pay) that you wouldn't understand, considering you can't even figure out how to use the external link brackets function on ATS. Anyways, where are they supposed to go? One of them alone, my first one in fact, had hundreds of thousands of views on Google Videos before they removed the number of views feature (as well as comments and everything else besides just the video itself) about 2 years ago. In fact, my films aren't hardly even on Youtube because I haven't gotten around to putting them on my channel. Nice try. Go to hell anyways though.

a word of advice for him,

I have some advice for you... I introduce you to what is known as a Logical Fallacy List. Read up!

EDIT:
You might also learn a thing or 2 here:
Absolutist Terminology: How to not sound like an Idiot

There you go: the big 'secret' "tactics" I use that ensure it's virtually impossible for me to ever lose a debate. How you like that logic? So there, now I'm 'busted'. Perhaps you might you might commission the Board Business forum for a 'The State of ATS vs. IIB' 'war crimes' tribunal. The charges: Being the worst debate nightmare of people who spew absolutes in every breathe. Guilty as charged!! Now can a get a damn badge or something?


[edit on 15-6-2010 by IgnoranceIsntBlisss]

Originally posted by apacheman
Sorry if you are so sensitive that pointing out facts that contradict your opinions seems like a personal attack to you. It isn't.

I didn't say personal. The other person said I attacked you, and I pointed out that you came in saying I'm the screamonger or whatever. I can't recall you actually attacking me personally, unlike many of the others who surely flag your threads and all.

When this catastrophe started you were yelling (large fonts, bolded, etc) at everyone that the Exxon Valdez was far worse, that the Ixtoc blowout was far worse, that it would be fixed soon, that oil seeps are perfectly natural, that bacteria would eat all the oil and there's nothing to worry about.

Granted, I like to use the the various features to show emphasis on certain words and things. But to me "screaming" is like when someone is yelling their hair is on fire. Ew, Ew, my hair!

You've been wrong on pretty much every count, but have never acknowledged it, you just change the subject or set an impossible standard (stop using plastics, oil, etc if anyone thinks this is a tragedy).

Wrong about what? Please quote me. Show me the rest. It's pretty rare I don't respond to damn near every sentence someone posts.

You have consistently said that the Gulf will swiftly recover, that the economic losses are inconsequential in the larger scheme of things, etc.

Quote me.

The Gusher hasn't ended, yet you're already declaring this? Are you psychic? I've used historical examples to provide insight in how to look forward on this event. And I've never said swiftly. I've used those various formatting features your you just brought up to exclaim that the initial impact is and will be really bad. Long term is what I've said should pan out alright, as history has proven.

Note it's rare you'll even catch me speaking in absolutes, meanwhile a vast percentage of oil screamongers speak in total absolutes at nearly every corner. Kind of like your next statement:

The Gulf that I knew is dead and gone

In another thread you berate me for thinking that tens of billions of cubic feet of methane is a severe problem, asking whether I'd rather have oil or gas.

I never said its not a problem, I said it's better than if the contents of the gusher were 100% oil.

And I see you still won't answer the question.

I've cited your citations for the amounts of gases to show that the contents of the 'gush' are better than pure oil. And I've shown how 75% of the Gulf Gusher oil is raw solvents and volatiles that will evaporate and go away soon enough. This is better than if all of the 'gush' were Heavy Crude Oil like what hit at Exxon Valdez.

Thing's could be much much more worse than they are.

reply to post by TheRedneck


What happened to you? Surely you didn't "give up" in our little respectful 'debate'????

I was hoping we'd go further with the in's & out's of my solution concept, and in the process each learn more of the little details needed to better understand what CAN be done to stop it.

reply to post by IgnoranceIsntBlisss

No, didn't 'give up'... just got a lot going on here and lost the tab that this thread was open in. Sorry about that; I'll try to pick up from your last reply to me:

Originally posted by IgnoranceIsntBlisss
They seemed to have gotten that cap on there. (I never did see video of how they pulled that one off. I wasn't confident they could do it.)

I have to admit I was a bit surprised as well, considering the hostile environment they were working in.

There are methods of stopping pressure flows. We use them all the time in valves. One can insert a barrier at right angles to the flow, for instance, and not encounter the same pressures they would if the barrier were inserted into the flow. One can use mechanical leverage to increase the strength of the barrier so it can be implemented. But this is simply not feasible when trying to insert a pipe into a pressurized outflow. Not only do you get the resistance to the pipe being inserted, but you also get sideways forces from the eddy currents within the flow.

As a real-world example, consider a fire hose. It contains tremendous water pressure, yet with a turn of a control wheel we can stop that pressure. We don't stop it by trying to shove a plug into the end of the pressurized hose; instead we insert a barrier inside the valve at right angles to the flow. That is possible, and even practical. Trying to shove enough golf balls into the end of the hose to stop the water from coming out is not.

Originally posted by IgnoranceIsntBlisss
I looked at that thread last night but it was painful to try and make sense of.

So now the leak isn't certain ruptured fittings, from the massively 30,000 horse power reverse pressure operation, but now the entire pipes length of fittings are ruptured? I doubt you're going quite that far, but overall that's kinda the feeling still. In any case that scenario seems implausible. Basically all of those fittings would have had to at once because once enough path of least resistance free up then things would 'chill'.

Yes, that is basically what I am saying. The real damage is along the length of the casing inside the well itself.

When that thing blew out, the blast sent a series of shock waves along the length of the casing. That casing is primarily concrete. Concrete has little ability to withstand seismic stress, and a shock wave is just that: a seismic event. That led to cracks in the concrete casings, and quite possibly ruptured the steel as well. Remember that a rupture does not have to be a massive failure; it can also be microfractures in the grain of the steel. Anyone familiar with welding understands this well. The primary reason for welds to break is the existence of similar microfractures in the grain of the steel that cause it to crack when stresses are applied.

Then, when the rig itself sank, that placed a huge sideways stress on the entire well, a stress it was never designed to withstand. This stress translated to rips along the casing and lining, probably where it had fractured under the seismic stress from the explosions.

The fractures are not a creation of the pressure of the oil itself; they have resulted form the catastrophe that befell the rig. The oil will simply take advantage of these cracks now. As one is plugged, another will open.

Originally posted by IgnoranceIsntBlisss
Good times. Sounds like a cool shop. Mine is filled with electronics, with a huge urban garden outside. There are advantages to being the last employee some place, in this economy.

You sound quite learned. That's good! Now look up 'metallurgy' and 'concrete stress' and you will understand some of what I have been saying. There is a very valid reason concrete is almost always steel-reinforced.

Originally posted by IgnoranceIsntBlisss
Well, they did manage to get that "cap" on there. And a pipe a few inches thick wouldn't be like if they were trying to totally cap it all at once. DO they have a release valve on the "cap" where they could let out more pressure while trying things like what we're talking about?

I'm pretty well versed in structural matters (worked for over 20 years as a structural steel designer), but not so much with oil drilling procedures. So I really don't know. Perhaps someone else with more knowledge could answer this question?

Originally posted by IgnoranceIsntBlisss
What is actually down there? Isn't it desolate? It would certainly change the natural state, but would it matter? The shifting would mostly be above the leak, right?

What matters at this point of questioning is how hard is the data (1) on the thing existing and (2) more importantly the data on the nature of this sidewall issue. If it's only 1000' down then what does it matter when life is up above being killed? The odds if it causing the oilfield to truly erupt are what I'm reaching for here.

What's down there is rock. Rock, believe it or not, can be fluid. It can also be eroded, sometimes quickly, by fluids under pressure (look at the Grand Canyon for an example; that was carved under atmospheric pressures). Rock can also be brittle and crack/fracture. So we really don't know what exactly is down there, so far as knowing how it will respond to pressure leaks. The reactions will depend on several variables, such as the rock composition, hardness, and the pressures from outside the well itself (tectonic) that may or may not be present.

My concern is the same as yours, which is why I am so pessimistic about any attempt to close off the well. If that casing is ruptured along its length (as it seems to be), and we stop the pressure at the top, those fractures along the casing will lead to other leaks... those leaks will erode the rock around them, as well as applying pressures to them... under sufficient pressure rocks can move, fracture, or even break apart. If that happens, we will be in a truly unstoppable situation. As much trouble as we are having trying to stop a 10" diameter hole from leaking, think what would be involved of the oil began leaking from cracks in the seafloor across several acres? Absolutely impossible to contain!

BP actually seems to be taking the right approach to the leak itself if this is all accurate: trying to contain as much of the oil leaking as possible at the source, and working to clean up what is already in the water and what is still coming in. But it won't be solved in a 'TV sitcom' 30 minutes. This is going to take a lot of time to correct and a lot of damage is going to be done. We have only seen the beginnings of ecological destruction.

That's not defeatist; it is pragmatic and realistic. The result is far superior to being unable to stop the leak at all due to seafloor fractures.

Originally posted by IgnoranceIsntBlisss
I only meant that as a rough reference for shape and size. Sorry for not being clear of why I said "silver dollar".

...

I was hoping there were some way of orchestrating it from a ship.

Two problems with your idea here: in order to propel sealants down a pipe from magnets, the sealants would have to themselves have a magnetic field which was held in opposition to the driving field. That means we have to use magnets themselves, attach magnets to whatever we are using, or have some material which is naturally repelled by magnetism. The only material I know of that has any reasonable amount of such repulsion is bismuth, and it would be far far too weak to work across any usable distance. (Incidentally, the repulsion form bismuth is due to it's inability to form any magnetic fields in its structure, not from an induced opposing field... just in case anyone wanted to 'correct' me on that. )

The magnetic attraction/repulsion force dies off pretty quickly with distance, especially through non-magnetic materials (like air and water). To achieve the forces needed, we are talking about huge magnets very close to the driven material. Even if the operation were conducted from a ship, a magnet aboard that ship is going to have almost no effect on something, even another huge magnet, a mile below it. The driving magnets would have to be positioned all along the pipe.

Completely impractical, sorry.

Originally posted by IgnoranceIsntBlisss
I once read a little psychology 'exercise' about:

I like that story!

But in order to solve that problem, the student did have to use the realities of mathematics... and that is where your concept is flawed. You have ignored the physics of the situation.

I do hope someone will come up with a plan that will stop this disaster in it's tracks. I live in Alabama; I know all too well the devastation being wreaked on the Gulf Coast inhabitants and the wildlife. But wishing something were possible does nothing but frustrate. Any solution will have to be not only possible, but practical as well. As of now, I know of no such solution save the ones being implemented.

And believe you me, it pains me to have to say that.

TheRedneck

great thread by a great disinfo
gl dying
ignorant mf

Originally posted by TheRedneck

Originally posted by IgnoranceIsntBlisss
So now the leak isn't certain ruptured fittings, from the massively 30,000 horse power reverse pressure operation, but now the entire pipes length of fittings are ruptured? I doubt you're going quite that far, but overall that's kinda the feeling still. In any case that scenario seems implausible. Basically all of those fittings would have had to at once because once enough path of least resistance free up then things would 'chill'.

Yes, that is basically what I am saying. The real damage is along the length of the casing inside the well itself.

I not sure that there is enough evidence to speak that in absolutes.

Then, when the rig itself sank, that placed a huge sideways stress on the entire well, a stress it was never designed to withstand. This stress translated to rips along the casing and lining, probably where it had fractured under the seismic stress from the explosions.

I beg to differ. The BOP was still standing straight up, with the kink above it. Once the pipe goes down into the solid floor that stress would be cut off. For all anyone knows, unless theres something I'm missing here, that fractures could just not too far down below the surface.

The fractures are not a creation of the pressure of the oil itself; they have resulted form the catastrophe that befell the rig. The oil will simply take advantage of these cracks now. As one is plugged, another will open.

Right. If that's the case then I argue that scenario is nearly impossible, as I noted above. I'm shocked to even hear you saying such a thing. Wait, who logged into The Redneck's ATS profile. Impostor!!

The magnetic attraction/repulsion force dies off pretty quickly with distance, especially through non-magnetic materials (like air and water). To achieve the forces needed, we are talking about huge magnets very close to the driven material. Even if the operation were conducted from a ship, a magnet aboard that ship is going to have almost no effect on something, even another huge magnet, a mile below it. The driving magnets would have to be positioned all along the pipe.

Completely impractical, sorry.

Mechanical and massive magnetic force at the ship level, and perhaps down the pipe... or rather at the wellhead seafloor level... forcing the RE magnets + spacers down into the abyss...

If they have pumps that can crank out 30,000 PSI, they can do this.

What is impractical is all of that oil disaster going on. That's impractical.

Thank you, OP, for saying what needed to be said.

People need to realize that unless you stop using fossil fuels and all the products that use fossil fuels, you're contributing to the spill.

Originally posted by IgnoranceIsntBlisss
Only a tiny handful are about solutions, while the vast majority are guilt and fear mongering scream fests.

Excellent. Maybe this time enough will feel justifiably motivated to help us shut down the industrial age before we end up totally trashing and destroying the world! I've lost count of the number of species we've driving into extinction already. Doesn't anyone want to stop what we're doing before we're next? One day our luck will run out, and that could be any day after today. The solution? Surrender, and give up this attack against nature! NOW! Before it's too late!

reply to post by FearNoEvil


Yep, you know the score.

"The problem is not the little guy - it's the greedy CEOs and politicians."

Most people dont'

Originally posted by Just Wondering

Originally posted by paxnatus
reply to post by IgnoranceIsntBlisss

 

I will not take my part in BP's and our Govt. along with countless other governments, GREED!!

Ok then don't drive a car, don't catch a taxi, walk, ride a horse or a bike.
Otherwise you are a hypocrite.

or use a computer, or buy food at the grocery store, or use a computer, or turn on the lights, or buy clothes shipped from asia, etc etc etc

Buy Made in the USA only!

Make your own Biodiesel for $1 per gallon!