UFO's, Aliens - the likelihood of their existence

James Peirce, I believe an American Philosopher, coined what is referred to as Inference to the Best Explanation. As is clear from the name, the way to answer questions, be it sceintific or philosophical, is by choosing the most likely explanation among the set at hand. From this, Ochams's Razor comes to the front, stating that the simplest explanation is the most likely and thus the one to choose. Well, things are not always that simple, granted, but it is a good starting point.

Related to UFO's, explaining such things as lights in the sky, or small ships that seem to move quickly and then disappear, etc. as things caused by aliens fails to meet James' technique. Now, having done some research on this topic, I am unfortunately still sitting on the face regarding whether it is likely that Aliens exist or not. Here's why:

Reasons to Believe that Aliens do not exist:

1. Well, simply, there are other formidable explanations at hand regarding both famous and less famous UFO/Alien sightings. A quick example will illustrate the point: Roswell, 1947. The American Air Force encouters a "disc", as stated in the Ramey memo which details information about the said event, in New Mexico. The US Government said that it was a crashed ballon from Operation Mogul, a Top Secret op' testing survellience equipment. Others said it was a UFO that resulted in the seizure of a UFO and its crew. To my knowledge, there is little evidence to suggest anything of the sort. In fact, a better explanation is that it was a crashed device from the Mogul op'. There is more evidence to suggest the latter than to suggest that it was Aliens.

Let's take a quick look at some of the evidence at the site that led people to speculate about UFO's. For instance, the purple shapes that appeared on some of the crashed material. It was later said that it was toy tape used to hold peices of the device together. Why not accept that? Accept it we should. One main reason is that, rather than it coming from an alien ship, it came from the Americans. Why would the American Government want to put clear, Enlgish markings on such a device: what if it crashed over the Soviet Union? Surely the Americans would not want them to find out the probe was from them. So the markings leave the Soviets guessing, not being able to conclusively pin the probe on the Americans at that time. Remember, this was an experiment, so they were expecting these things to crash.

What's clear is that, in the Roswell incident, there are other, more likely explanations at hand in comparison to Alien explanations.

2. Why are Aliens, who are supposed to be so advanced, crashing into Earth? You think with their technology that such events were rarely, if ever, happen. Us Humans even have sophisticated, man-less probes that we send into space, why do the Aliens risk coming to Earth when they clearly are not interested in being "made"? If there were an Alien probe, one can imagine how sophisticated and long range it would be.

3. How do Aliens get their small ships into our Atmosphere without detection? Granted, their technology maybe so great they have found a way around our Satellites, but the problem still exists for them.

4. There are too many flaws in Alien sightings, which leads back to 1.

One interesting thing about UFO specualtion is that, perhaps, your Government in the US wants to create a smokescreen: while your thinking UFO's, you are not thinking about the wrong doings of your Military. It is the ultimate, long-term smoke screen.

Reasons to believe in Aliens:

1. Some US Government officials have spoken out about Aliens. For example, and I will not name his name, A US Senator wrote a letter when Hanger 18 was buzzing away about the fact that he was denied access to the building. He said in his letter that several intelligent people have told him we are "not alone." What about Bush Senior? I have heard him reply to a question about Aliens, saying "You don't know the half of it." This, coming from a former Director of the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency). The list goes on.

2. The fact that one cannot rule out, necessarily, that aliens have visited our planet. While I pointed out that there are other, more likely explanations of so called UFO sightings, Alien explanations still exist as potentials. It's the lack of evidence that presents conundrums.

3. In fact, the probablility is in the Aliens favor. This is a whole other matter, which, at the least, makes their existence, somewhere in the Universe, significantly probable. Whether they have visited Earth is what our main concern is, not just whether they exist or not.

In conclusion, we have reason to believe that Aliens exist, whatever it is they are. Have they visited Earth? I am tending to the right wing. I believe that, as of right now, their is a significant chance that they have visited us. Why? The main reason is that when Government officials side step the issue, and when some have even made statements that lead to their known existence, like the two I provided, it is likely that they do. If the Governement was not acting in this manner, I would be more skeptical of their existence.

However, UFO sightings could just be Government ran experiments, geared to be as real as possible. The unsuspecting Military personnel could all just be guinnea pigs in such experiments, construing the issue as an "Alien" enounter.

Their reasons for covering it up are, predictably, two fold. First, they do not want to create mass hysteria. Second, they want the technology and that must be kept secret. My question though is what are other Governments doing about UFO's, if they do in fact visit Earth? Surely North America is not the only place of interest. Granted, we are the most technologically advanced, and thus, probably the most interesting to them, but it also seems logical to assume that they have crashed in other countries too.

I shall continue thinking of this a welcome serious feedback.

[Edited on 1-6-2004 by Plasmamembrane]

good reading.
Yes if everyone believes in them maybe we might hear something from them to.

they HAVE crashed in other countries I believe............Russia...China.....and Japan.......rumors abound about these events. Even some photos can be found......some OBVIOUS fakes though....

Maybe they are crashing in a kamakazi kind of expedition?...to SHOW us theyre pressance in the universe? I dont know WHY they would do this when they could just land safe and wave at us.........why kill themselves? I dunno...they are Alien....and have Alien ways, and Alien reasons for the Alien things that they do.....

The metallic crafts that crashes or not, they are ours made.
The *Angels* that is flying here are long way in the development that overcomes our fantasy, the lights *Real Ufos* is pure spirits that is always connected to something they created a form of energy that got all their needs example: the memory, senses, you can say it’s another container than ours human body container. You see they are so small and take Extreme maneuvers that any body would be vaporized in an instance with the enormous G-Force. Well it could be

aliens are real and they crash into earth just for the hell to show us there existence remember that post about wheels in the sky and jillions and jillions of reports. They are real the government would deny that because since the government controls what we see on television or computer or hear on the radio...also controls video game ratings.....they would probably blind us with video games with aliens just to make us think it is all a fantasy world...and then when the public really finds out they would say we werent hiding anything we showed you all those movies and games and crap but you were too dumb to believe us and stuff like that

Plasmamembrane,
This type of a discussion has been going on for over 50 years and we have not made much progress in regards to coming up with a convincing answer. By convincing, I mean an answer accepted by the general public, not the ufo community.

A whole number of questions have spawned since the Kenneth Arnold sighting:
Roswell crash, MJ-12 documents, alien autopsy, other crashes, aductions, cattle mutilation, crop circles, conspiracy theories, secret bases, videos, and so on. This really muddies up the central question.

Most scientists take a contemptous approach to ufos, which really is not helpful. Then we have the con artists making plenty of money on ufo stories, who have no interest in the truth.

Ufology is considered by the mainstream as "paranormal" and is lumped together with ghosts, Nessie, Yete, Big Foot, etc.

IMHO we should really concentrate on resolving the primary issue before wasting too much time on all the secondary issues, i.e. the "nuts and bolts" unidentified flying object issue. Do ufos of extraterrestial origin exist? If the answer is no, then the whole house of cards collapses.

Project Blue Book and the Condon Report were unsatisfactory. Much better was the French Cometa Report (ignored by the US government).

Steven Greer's Disclosure project IMHO would have had a much better chance of success if it had in a first step just concentrated on resolving the primary question instead of including conspiracy witnesses which scares off most Congressmen.

The sheer mass of ufo sightings worldwide points to something to be taken seriously - are they all mistaken or hoaxes? Would seem incredible and not the most likely answer as you mention.

I personally fear the issue will not be satisfactorily resolved in our lifetime.

Originally posted by gzhpcu
Plasmamembrane,
This type of a discussion has been going on for over 50 years and we have not made much progress in regards to coming up with a convincing answer. By convincing, I mean an answer accepted by the general public, not the ufo community.

A whole number of questions have spawned since the Kenneth Arnold sighting:
Roswell crash, MJ-12 documents, alien autopsy, other crashes, aductions, cattle mutilation, crop circles, conspiracy theories, secret bases, videos, and so on. This really muddies up the central question.

Most scientists take a contemptous approach to ufos, which really is not helpful. Then we have the con artists making plenty of money on ufo stories, who have no interest in the truth.

Ufology is considered by the mainstream as "paranormal" and is lumped together with ghosts, Nessie, Yete, Big Foot, etc.

IMHO we should really concentrate on resolving the primary issue before wasting too much time on all the secondary issues, i.e. the "nuts and bolts" unidentified flying object issue. Do ufos of extraterrestial origin exist? If the answer is no, then the whole house of cards collapses.

Project Blue Book and the Condon Report were unsatisfactory. Much better was the French Cometa Report (ignored by the US government).

Steven Greer's Disclosure project IMHO would have had a much better chance of success if it had in a first step just concentrated on resolving the primary question instead of including conspiracy witnesses which scares off most Congressmen.

The sheer mass of ufo sightings worldwide points to something to be taken seriously - are they all mistaken or hoaxes? Would seem incredible and not the most likely answer as you mention.

I personally fear the issue will not be satisfactorily resolved in our lifetime.

UFOs have going around for the last 12 000 years! What the heck are they doing! People have carved mountains with ufos and of other people from space. It’s the biggest mystery ever.

gzhpcu:

Thank you for your reply. You are right about the vast number of UFO sightings and that they could not all be hoaxes. However, I am still skeptical. With the increase of satellites floating around, it is not hard to formulate arithmetic. Like I said, though, the pontential Alien explanation still exists. We should all err on caution when construing things as alien in nature, even Government doc's that talk about things that seem like they refer to alien material. One likely explanation of such Goverenment jargon is that it is just the typical ongoing, Top Secret, Prototype testing that they do not want anyone knowing about - hence the smoke-screen.

One other funny thing about the Roswell incident and the 1980 incident with the US Military is that why, with so many UFO sightings, do they have red, yellow, etc. flashing lights on their craft? It's like, hey, look at me. Another explanation is that those probes and small crafts are all of the American Governments hands. I see no reason why, with the available technology in 1980 - remember, we knew how to recombine DNA at that time - that a small craft like the one the personnel recovered could be a Prototype probe from the American Military.

Best Wishes.

Plasmamembrane,
As you mention, some strange government terminology has been interpreted as alluding to extraterrestials. For example the �PRESIDENTIAL EXECUTIVE ORDER 13112� by Bill Clinton mandated to protect Florida's everglades against weeds has been interpreted by some as referring to ETs... Presidential Order This IMHO is pretty silly...

The secret government prototype hypothesis IMHO might cover some things like the flying triangles but not the classic flying saucers.

As far as satellite detection is concerned, if you do research on the internet you will see that there are assertions that satellites have detected ufos...
True or not? Your guess is as good as mine...

satellites detecting ufos?

Regards





[Edited on 2-6-2004 by gzhpcu]

i think the possibilities of aliens being real out of this world creatures or them being a tool of our soul to send us meaningfull messages is about 50/50

Originally posted by gzhpcu
...IMHO we should really concentrate on resolving the primary issue before wasting too much time on all the secondary issues...

Allright here goes nothing.

What do Roswell, Kecksberg and Rendlesham have in common?

No, besides their own discovery channel docu-dramas with Briant Gumble..

In each instance, there is foreign hyroglyph-like writing either on material or on the craft.

For Roswell, it may be some toy store tape.

For Kecksburg, it may be Russian writing on the Kosmos craft.

For Rendlesham I do not know.

Here's my idea, how hard can it be to track down and digitalize all the US made tape used on toys from the 1940's???

We constantly see Marcel's son showing his little balsa wood model with the glyphs on it, imagine if we can ask, "Hey dude, look at this..huh look familiar?" while showing him a catalog of toy tape from that era.

This is simply investigative work, yet I have not seen this done.

Kecksburg. Same approach. Have the witnesses been shown the entire Russian alphabet and asked how it resembles what they saw?

To an American in Pensylvania who knows nothing about other languages, I'm pretty sure Russian will appear out-of-this world!

And finally, Rendlesham...I think only one of the witnesses claims to have seem some glyphs on the craft, has he been asked to compare those with some catalog of known languages and symbols?

You see they are so small and take Extreme maneuvers that any body would be vaporized in an instance with the enormous G-Force.

There is always the possibility there is a Electro Magnetic Field within the craft that prevents this. You probably would only feel a +1 or-1 G

The kind of maneuvers you refer to.


www.rense.com...

Originally posted by project_pisces

You see they are so small and take Extreme maneuvers that any body would be vaporized in an instance with the enormous G-Force.

There is always the possibility there is a Electro Magnetic Field within the craft that prevents this. You probably would only feel a +1 or-1 G

The kind of maneuvers you refer to.


www.rense.com...

1) what the heck are you talking about. You people throw scientific terms around on here like crazy. EM field ? Do you know what one is?

2) i would like to restate the fact that IM an astronomer by profession. I watch the skies all over the world, millions of times more than anyone on this Board. How come me or my collegues never ever see a UFO? Could it be that that " UFO " is just a military plane, or satellite ( how many of you actually " seen " a satellite anyway) or venus. Please.....inform me

Encino Man,

Very many sightings (probably a very high percentage) are certainly a case of mistaken identity. IMHO, however, a small number remain which are really unexplained. This was mentioned in the project Blue Book report and the University of Colorado Condon report.
Some astronomers have had UFO sightings:
Astronomer UFO Sightings

My understanding of astronomers (please correct me if I am wrong):

Astronomers aren't interested in moving lights in the sky any more than they are in identifiable aircraft. They do some specific imaging of nebulas and galaxies, and spend a lot of time looking through eyepieces with tiny fields of view. So they might miss seeing ufos.

Many have now switched to computer-guided scopes and spend their time in warm-up rooms,often miles away from the telescope itself. Some astronomers do not do any direct optical observations.

This might explain why many astronomers have not seen ufos. Also, astronomers are less liable to misinterprete sightings which to the untrained would appear to be an ufo. But I would like to hear your views, since you are a professional astronomer.

[Edited on 2-6-2004 by gzhpcu]

[Edited on 2-6-2004 by gzhpcu]

Senshido and any others that this applies to:

Interesting idea about the tape investigation. However, throughout our speculation on these matters, as members of a North American society without Level 9 Security clearances, we are in an "extremely" inferior position in relation to those that have the Security clearances (i.e. the President of the US, the Director of the CIA, etc.). Accordingly, we are not much different than skater boy traversing through the streets. We all must accept that our North American Government pulls the iron curtain over us - it is easy for them to do.

Their power allows them to share or not share information with us as they see appropriate. We would be foolish to believe that the Government does not have the power to withhold information pertaining to the manufacture of "toy tape", like the tape found at Roswell. We all must ban together armed with the same principles - how to go about choosing the best explanation in the absence of evidence, since that is our main dilemma as members of society investigating the most sensitive military area ever.

Perhaps I should join a UFO organization of some sort. Any suggestions on any?

Lastly, and dare I digress, I believe there are aliens mainly because it is probable and also due to the evasiveness of our Governments on the issue, not to forget about past, high ranking military (US) personnel who state that they have visited Earth.

I will not spend too much more time grappling with whether or not they exist, I have decided to accept that it is likely, albeit with skepticism. As such, all of our missions should be to persuade our Government to release pertinant information on this matter in a speedy, clear and consistent manner.

Concluding, I am not so interested in UFO sightings, but rather, the way our Governments react to our UFO related probing.

Best Wishes.

There is simply no credible physical evidence that points to their existence, simple and plain. Therefore i conclude that they do not exist, at least according to my current knowledge. As far as beliefs i belive that aliens do not exist

"There is simply no credible physical evidence "

Aside from your belief that there is no credible physical evidence, you must admit there is a high probablility of other life forms existing in another galaxy, since there are millions if not more of these in our Universe. Thus, if you discredit all other evidence available, the high probability of their existence still exists.

Moreover, one must take seriously the leaked documents accessible on this website (i.e. MJ-12 documents), which contain telling information in regards to the existence of Aliens. More precisely, an analysis of these documents has led me to believe that the Military was taking a myriad of steps in preparing for and dealing with a crashed UFO. Accordingly, these documents per sey are evidence of Alien existence.

However, I must admit that these documents could be fake and thus invalid pieces of evidence, which lends support to your position. It should be noted that some of the most telling of these documents have been analysed and determined to be authentic. Yet, I am still skeptical myself over whether these are authentic or not: for obvious reasons.

Aside from the evidence dilemma, one cannot deny the public statements of high ranking Government officials on this matter and the incredible aversion the American Government has on this issue.

Thus, with the high probability of their existence coupled with the attitude of the American Government, the theory of Alien existence is far from bankrupt.

Best Wishes.

Originally posted by Plasmamembrane


1. Some US Government officials have spoken out about Aliens. For example, and I will not name his name, A US Senator wrote a letter when Hanger 18 was buzzing away about the fact that he was denied access to the building. He said in his letter that several intelligent people have told him we are "not alone." What about Bush Senior? I have heard him reply to a question about Aliens, saying "You don't know the half of it." This, coming from a former Director of the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency). The list goes on.
[Edited on 1-6-2004 by Plasmamembrane]

Thanks for the read.

The Senator you mention is Barry Goldwater. It is common knowledge. He was allegedly denied acess to sensitive info during the 1960s. Supposedly he was denied by General Curtis LeMay. (The United State's fanatic during the ColdWar)

Though I have seen several references to it, the Bush Sr. quote is unsubstantiated. I have never seen a credible or verifiable source for it. At best, it is probably hearsay. Most likely made up IMO. Even though that quote is something I have always found fascinating..... If someone could post a legitmate source to it, it would be appreciated.

There is another possible aspect that I think alot of people seem to ignore. That is the possibility that the Goverment really does not know much more than we do. They see the lights, the radar contacts, personnel sighting reports, video tapes, etc.... and they have no idea what it is either. Perhaps they can only speculate as much as we can.

I do believe that we are at the very least being observed to some extent....but lizards in the Whitehouse fixing the Superbowl? I don't buy that for a second.


.




[Edited on 3-6-2004 by Facefirst]

Facefirst:

Good post. I agree completely with your statements. Let us discard Bush. But Goldwater makes some compelling remarks in relation to intelligent life off-world. Those are the things that are hard to dismiss. It is not just Goldwater, but others who have come forward to issue statements about Aliens - high ranking Army officers for example. Of course, they all could be lying, but there is no evidence to suggest whether they are or they aren't, in some cases. As such, we must give these people credibility, as a witness gets in a court of law, particularly when they have more to lose than gain.

Accordingly, the absence of substantiation regarding Bush's statement does not erase others' statements regarding this issue, neither does it erase the possiblity of him saying it.

It should be noted that I am still skeptical, but as shown, the Alien theory is hardly confidently false.

[Edited on 3-6-2004 by Plasmamembrane]

Originally posted by Plasmamembrane
Facefirst:

Good post. I agree completely with your statements. Let us discard Bush. But Goldwater makes some compelling remarks in relation to intelligent life off-world. Those are the things that are hard to dismiss. It is not just Goldwater, but others who have come forward to issue statements about Aliens - high ranking Army officers for example. Of course, they all could be lying, but there is no evidence to suggest they are or they aren't, in some cases. As such, we must give these people some credibility, as a witness gets in a court of law, particularly when they have more to lose than gain.

Accordingly, the absence of substantiation regarding Bush's statement does not erase others' statements regarding this issue.

It should be noted that I am still skeptical, but as shown, the Alien theory is hardly confidently false.

Thanks.

With the exception of my stated belief that we are being observed, I never put the theory as confidently false or confidently true. When considering all the possiblilties in all situations, you must weigh the options and let the facts dictate the truth. I always try to use the word allegedly until something is 100% verifiable or provable beyond reasonable doubt. There are some cases where evidence is supposedly witheld and I always take that into consideration. It just seems that a great deal of cases and claims seem to have that particular problem. One would think, with all of the ET encounter/cover-up stories floating about, that someone would be able to grab something. An intergalatic screwdriver? A memo from the last Bilderburger ET meeting? Any piece of evidence would be appreciated. Evidence with any weight behind it's credibility would suffice.

There have been some interesting military witnesses, but military does not always mean reliable. They are human and fallable as well. And a great deal of what I read on their claims was often hearsay or distorted and exagerated by others. Dr. Stephen Greer's infamous "briefing" of former CIA director James Woosley comes to mind. Then again, Greer had some interesting and seemingly credible folks at his DC NPC conference.

There is so much info out there that it is hard to tell distortion from truth.

I really do think that many of the sightings by what seem to be genuine, sane people, point towards something going on in our atmosphere.....

Just my two cents...


[Edited on 3-6-2004 by Facefirst]