OP/ED: Is China preparing for a conflict over Taiwan?

After all the talks with Chinese officials, it has always been clear that China's actions have always contradicted their claim of wanting a peaceful reunification with Taiwan. A new Pentagon analysis states that China may be modifying its tactics for military action over Taiwan.

 

Study: China readying for conflict
Communist leaders in Beijing have long talked of a "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan, but military preparations seem to contradict that talk, according to a Pentagon analysis.

China's "determined focus on preparing for conflict in the Taiwan Strait -- to include accelerated deployments of short-range ballistic missiles opposite Taiwan -- casts a cloud over Beijing's declared policy," the U.S. Defense Department has said.

Once in a while Chinese officials have been bold enough to state that there will be a conflict with the United States, and that the Chinese prefer to take this conflict to us and do it sooner rather than later. They have claimed that they will do anything to stop the independance of Taiwan.

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Links to China's readiness for a conflict over Taiwan



[Edited on 1-6-2004 by Nerdling]

This one isn't exactly surprising. Taiwan has been a thorn in the side of mainland China since it's inception. Dale Brown, an author of military thrillers, wrote a book entitled "Fatal Terrain", that deals with this very subject. I suppose that the real question is, exactly how much is communist China willing to risk to reclaim it's rogue province, and where will the US stand on the issue. It could very easily become very nasty.

if china is serious about taking military action, what better time then now while the US is bogged down in the middle east, hindered by worldwide oposition towards US foriegn policy there, and upcoming US elections.

-raven

They know our response would be Nuclear, that is our response to any aggression by China. At most they'll just try to scare the Tiwanese into giving-up.

We will not be using nukes against the Chinese. The only way we will ever use nukes, if we ever do it, is if we are attacked with nukes ourselves and know who did it. But i believe we would look for other means to defend Taiwan.

Logistics is the key, the Chinese could invade right now if they decided to absorb the losses to the Taiwanese navy, airforce and army. The thing is they have to have positive control of the air and sealanes to resupply their invading forces to be ultimately successful. If they can achieve that control quickly then I doubt the American public would have to stomach to live up to our obligations with Taiwan against another nuclear power such as China. China's military build-up is aiming exactly towards this goal in my opinion.

The question then becomes "Will America absorb the losses necessary to free Taiwan" I'm not betting on it.

[Edited on 1-6-2004 by Phoenix]

They install secret agent provacateurs who will call loudly for independence and start demonstrations.

China does a first-strike with small neutron bombs against Taiwanese military targets, and one against the Taipei international airport. Civilian casualties are about 1500, less than US did in Iraq and Afghanistan, as China points out.

The Taiwanese navy and airforce is devastated---planes have nowhere to land. Airfields are too radioactive to rebuild. Naval ships have nowhere to supply. China has total air superiority from the mainland, and protecting their invasion convoys.

The US is too far away to do much. Their long range aircraft cannot take out the massive Chinese fighter fleet, with new SU-30MKK's and more advanced weapons, new Russian air-to-air missiles better than the AMRAAM. The USA doesn't have enough F-22s in service sufficiently close to help. Okinawa is far away, and all aerial refueling tankers are far too vulnerable to the Chinese fighters, which can take off and land from shore.

China informs US that their attack submarines deployed en masse are equipped only with nuclear torpedoes and ship-ship missiles for attack and defense. They have no conventional option. USA will not risk obliteration of a carrier battle group (10,000 sailors) and doesn't get close enough to help Taiwan.

Taiwan is given 24 hours to surrender. They do. Chinese army marches on shore unopposed. Taiwanese Parliament is executed. China promises low-taxation zone for 10 years. Taiwanese businessmen itch to get back to making money. French itch to get back to selling weapons to Chinese, and veto U.N. sanctions.

mbkennel, combine the scenario you laid out with a Chinese backed major terrorist attack here in the states and the recipe for disaster is complete.

The only way we will ever use nukes, if we ever do it, is if we are attacked with nukes ourselves and know who did it. But i believe we would look for other means to defend Taiwan.

errr... Hiroshima? Yes you guys did used them. Twice if I can recall. And no you were not nuked back then.

Originally posted by Muaddib
After all the talks with Chinese officials, it has always been clear that Text. A new Pentagon analysis states that China may be modifying its tactics for military action over Taiwan.

Communist leaders in Beijing have long talked of a "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan, but military preparations seem to contradict that talk, according to a Pentagon analysis.

The US has always declared to China that the US will abide by the principle of the one China. On the contrary of this, the US, However, have abjectly support Taiwan for independence, which demonstrate that the US purely is a liar. The US is selling advanced weapons to Taiwan but banning other counties to do so for China, publicly supporting the separation movement of Taiwan, swinishly setting several obstacles for China to unify their country, and etc.

China loves peace, but US loves war. The Chinese people do want the "peaceful reunification", but US don't want. The US wish there would be only a separated China in the world. If the US disappeared in the world I hope so, there wouldn't be any war between mainland and Taiwan.
I think if US continues to do so, the war is inevitable not only for China but also for US. I don't hope this will happen, but we, China , must be prepared well for possible anything.




[Edited on 2-6-2004 by devmim]

The US is selling advanced weapons to Taiwan but banning other counties to do so for China

One reason: Taiwan is Democratic and China is Communist/Socialist.

The vast majority of Taiwanese people I know support eventual independence from China, unless China becomes Democratic. Even if China becomes Democratic, 50 years of separation have created a separate Cultural and Nationalistic identity for the Taiwanese Nation.

Originally posted by Osiriss

errr... Hiroshima? Yes you guys did used them. Twice if I can recall. And no you were not nuked back then.

We were hit heavily, losing lots of lives and part of our defense and were trying to avoid an invasion. We did not start that war......and we learnt from that mistake. Also China is too close to other European countries and too big for us to use nukes. If we used nukes in China, the amount of nukes needed would be so great that most of western Europe and all of Asia will suddenly light up green at night every night for a couple thousand years.

Originally posted by devmim

China loves peace, but US loves war. The Chinese people do want the "peaceful reunification", but US don't want.

[Edited on 2-6-2004 by devmim]

Huh....did you say China wants peace?............

" Speaking at the PLA's Military Command College in December 1999, Defense Minister Chi Haotian painted a stark picture of Communist China's future relations with the United States. "Seen from the changes in the world situation and the United States' hegemonic strategy for creating monopolarity, war is inevitable," Chi said. "We cannot avoid it. The issue is that the Chinese armed forces must control the initiative of this war." Accordingly, he announced an increase in the PRC defense budget and noted that fully 52 percent of the budget through the year 2003 would be targeted on retaking Taiwan.

Excerpted from.
www.insightmag.com...

And that's not the first time China has hinted at......what did you call it?.....peace?.........

BTW did you ever hear about Tiananmen square?........yeah...China loves peace....that's right............

Originally posted by mbkennel


China does a first-strike with small neutron bombs against Taiwanese military targets, and one against the Taipei international airport. Civilian casualties are about 1500, less than US did in Iraq and Afghanistan, as China points out.

The Taiwanese navy and airforce is devastated---planes have nowhere to land. Airfields are too radioactive to rebuild. Naval ships have nowhere to supply. China has total air superiority from the mainland, and protecting their invasion convoys.

The only one problem is that China has no neutron bomb.

The question then becomes "Will America absorb the losses necessary to free Taiwan"

The answer will be yes. The American public will see the war as defending a small, defenseless, friendly, Democratic country against an evil, imperialist, communist invader. This is what the American people believe is their best contribution to the world both past, present, and future....Defending Democracies

We will not be using nukes against the Chinese. The only way we will ever use nukes, if we ever do it, is if we are attacked with nukes ourselves and know who did it

The US maintains a 'first-strike posture' meaning that if a threat developes it isn't necessary to have to wait to be attacked before attacking that threat, such as the case was in Iraq and is possible in China if they attack Taiwan.

too big for us to use nukes

America currently maintains some 5,500 nuclear weapons on hair-trigger alert. The official Pentagon strategy remains unchanged: to fight and win a nuclear war. The explosion of 1000 hydrogen bombs on 100 cities -from such weapons as MX land-based missiles, B-2 air-based stealth bombers and Trident II nuclear submarine sea-based missiles would most likely induce a 'nuclear winter' and the end of all life on Earth.

-raven

Originally posted by Muaddib

Originally posted by devmim

China loves peace, but US loves war. The Chinese people do want the "peaceful reunification", but US don't want.

[Edited on 2-6-2004 by devmim]

Huh....did you say China wants peace?............

" Speaking at the PLA's Military Command College in December 1999, Defense Minister Chi Haotian painted a stark picture of Communist China's future relations with the United States. "Seen from the changes in the world situation and the United States' hegemonic strategy for creating monopolarity, war is inevitable," Chi said. "We cannot avoid it. The issue is that the Chinese armed forces must control the initiative of this war." Accordingly, he announced an increase in the PRC defense budget and noted that fully 52 percent of the budget through the year 2003 would be targeted on retaking Taiwan.

Excerpted from.
www.insightmag.com...

And that's not the first time China has hinted at......what did you call it?.....peace?.........

BTW did you ever hear about Tiananmen square?........yeah...China loves peace....that's right............

Hi, Muaddib, thanks for your reply. As for the above excerption as well as the Tiananmen square, I have already learned them somehow before.

For one thing, I want to emphasize the fact that the China has always attached much more weights to the peaceful reunification than the military reunification. In an effort to realize real peace, the China has proposed the policy of ��One China with Two Systems�� to Taiwan, in which Taiwan can have its own capitalism with its own military force, independent revenue, interior and etc. So far China has shown its maximal sincerity for Taiwan as well as the whole world. Secondly, the Taiwan has been rejecting the mainland's sincerity and some Taiwanese have openly promoted the separation of Taiwan from mainland mainly because of the US supports openly and stealthily. Therefore, I firmly believe that what the Chinese Defense Minister Chi Haotian has said is absolutely right, and I completely support him! BTW, the US have just deployed six of the B-52 in island Guam and one aircraft carrier in Yokosuka, Japan, and reinforced the American military force in Okinawa, Japan. All these American actions are to prepare the war with China. China has no other choice than the preparation mainly for the war with US.

And that's not the first time the American presidents have menaced China with military force and forced China to give up his unification. ......what did you call it?.....peace?.........

As for the Tiananmen square, this is our own interior thing not to do with the peace, and you didn't talk to the point or beyond the thread. However, I'd like to say something about it. I admit that the event of the Tiananmen square is wrong for Chinese government to some extent, but in a way it is also right. Perhaps, only the history can give the just conclusion. Today, the democracy is come to Chinese more and more close although there still exist some limitations in China. The Chinese democracy can only be realized by Chinese themselves and can not be dependent on any other countries, especially on US because of its being a rat-face.
What I have said is not to despise the American democracy. I have been appreciating the American democracy of its individuals greatly, but the US as a whole country is gruesome.


[Edited on 2-6-2004 by devmim]

[Edited on 2-6-2004 by devmim]

Originally posted by longbow

Originally posted by mbkennel


China does a first-strike with small neutron bombs against Taiwanese military targets, and one against the Taipei international airport. Civilian casualties are about 1500, less than US did in Iraq and Afghanistan, as China points out.

The Taiwanese navy and airforce is devastated---planes have nowhere to land. Airfields are too radioactive to rebuild. Naval ships have nowhere to supply. China has total air superiority from the mainland, and protecting their invasion convoys.

The only one problem is that China has no neutron bomb.

I'm very happy to look at your ignorance. If the all American are like you, I will more happy. In order to reduce the number of the American ignorant people, let me tell you the truth about the neutron bomb .

On July 15, 1999, the China has officially declared the possession of its own neutron bomb.

America currently maintains some 5,500 nuclear weapons on hair-trigger alert. The official Pentagon strategy remains unchanged: to fight and win a nuclear war. The explosion of 1000 hydrogen bombs on 100 cities -from such weapons as MX land-based missiles, B-2 air-based stealth bombers and Trident II nuclear submarine sea-based missiles would most likely induce a 'nuclear winter' and the end of all life on Earth.

-raven

Whether the US possesses some 10,000 nuclear weapons or more, it doesn��t matter for the wise Chinese. US��s possessing more nuclear weapons only mean that US can devastate China 100 times or more. As for China, it only need to possess a certain number of nukes to devastate the whole US one time after US has first attacked China with nukes. I think the number of China��s nukes is about 500-800, which is cost-efficient for China and is of enough nuclear deterrent to US. I hope US will possess more and more nukes and hydrogen bombs, perhaps 100,000 is best! After 100 years, all these will be wastes and will cost much money to dispose them.

Originally posted by devmim

For one thing, I want to emphasize the fact that the China has always attached much more weights to the peaceful reunification than the military reunification.
And that's not the first time the American presidents have menaced China with military force and forced China to give up his unification. ......what did you call it?.....peace?.........

As for the Tiananmen square, this is our own interior thing not to do with the peace, and you didn't talk to the point or beyond the thread. However, I'd like to say something about it. I admit that the event of the Tiananmen square is wrong for Chinese government to some extent, but in a way it is also right. I have been appreciating the American democracy of its individuals greatly, but the US as a whole country is gruesome.

You are totally wrong....Tiananmen Square was not right in any way...not at all....those people were not even armed, and it shows the way that the Chinese government resolves what you call "peace."

The Chinese government said there were 300 deaths, but the body count was much higher. Amnesty International said the toll was 1,000 deaths, and other western estimates puts the count higher. None of these people had a gun to defend themselves or to have the Chinese government order their police to open fire on these people.

Another thing, the US has never openly said that a war with China is inevitable, it has been the Chinese government's decision to state in public, several times, that a war with the US is inevitable either way, and it has always been China who starts "military exercises" close enough to Taiwan to try to submit the Taiwanese people with a show of force.

If it was only a small portion of the Taiwanese people that wanted this then I would understand why China wouldn't want the independance of Taiwan, but all or most Taiwanese want this independance, there is only a 10% of 23 million people consider themselves Chinese. I am sure they do not want to see another "Tainanmen Square" in Taiwan if the people ever have to peacefully protest against the Chinese government.

You can find some information in this site.
What Taiwan wants

" Taiwanese hope that even yesterday's small opening will stabilise their problematic relationship with China. They also hope it will put a damper on the booming illicit trade in seafood, produce and consumer goods between the islands and the mainland, so that legitimate business and investment take over. "

Excerpted from.
www.guardian.co.uk...

BTW, i was born in a communist country, and lived under communism until I was 8 years old. I remember what being under communism means, how the regime controls the media and the people completely. Any sign of disagreement with any communist/true socialist regime means either torture and jail or death.

And you want to name the US as a gruesome country.....you have really got to be kidding... Any communist country is evil incarnate, and I am not religious. If evil really exists its manifestation is communism/socialism.

Your so beloved government has killed since 1900-1987 35,236,000 people. That's over 35 million of your own people, and that's only what we know....

Do not even think you can lie here about which government is gruesome. Communism should not exist at all, in a way communists share what the radical Islamists want. Either the total submission of the west and the world being communist, or the destruction of the west. The difference with radical Islam is that the terrorists want Islam to dominate the world or the destruction of the west.


[Edited on 2-6-2004 by Muaddib]