Will Saudi Arabia ask for US protection?

I have been reliably informed that the Saudis will have to choose between more cash flow (by increasing oil production) and pleasing their historical business partners in the United States or placating the fundamentalists in their society. In doing the latter, they would be striking a working relationship with al-Qaeda in support of its goal of achieving a unified Middle Eastern Islamic State under religious rule, one that would permit the Saudi Royal Family to remain in place with its vast wealth and privileges.

Al-Qaeda staged guerilla attacks on Saudi soil on the following dates:

* April 21st
* May 1st
* May 20th
* May 29th

The message delivered by these attacks has to be quite clear as to what is at stake in the decision now being considered by the Saudi Royal Family. Logically, increasing oil production would cause increased guerilla activity that would target expatriate workers whom the Saudis rely upon to maintain their oil production at both existing and expanded levels.

www.jsmineset.com...

Of course this would mean that Al Quada would be angrier still at the desecration of their holy sites by the U.S.
Looks like you can prepare to open your wallet even wider at the pump!!!

[Edited on 1-6-2004 by ab2tw]

I have a gut feeling that if Saudia Arabia does ask US for assistance the US will not assist after all they (US) have done this in the past.

[Edited on 1-6-2004 by drunk]

Yeah but we have never faced the prospect of Al Quad running around distrupting the flow of Oil.

Al Q. could dramatically constrict oil production and suply in very short order without adequate security!!!

By "US protection" I take it that you mean US military involvement with forces on the ground?

If so, I find this highly unlikely. It took the US years to pull their forces out of Saudi Arabia and there are many reasons why they won't be going back in a hurry.
In reality, the only way that terrorists can harm Saudi oil production is by striking at the foreign experts who work in this field. The refineries and pipelines themselves are very well protected and it would take a massive co-ordinated strike by a terrorist organisation to put them offline for any length of time. It is highly improbable that any extremist group has the ability to pull off such an attack at this time.

www.arabnews.com...

Hitting at foreign oil workers does cause problems though. Most of the technical expertise for oil production comes from Western sources. If these workers feel too insecure to work in Saudi Arabia it is possible that there may be some difficulties within the industry and that production may slow, thus causing prices to rise. The extra security that has already been put into place also affects the cost of oil.

Al Qaeda has sworn to depose the current Saudi regime. The only way that they will be able to do this is by destroying the Saudi economy. And the only way to destroy that is by severely damaging the oil industry. The regime is aware of this fact and, although slow to act in the beginning, has recently accelerated activities against suspected militants and put more stringent security measures in place.

As stated, oil prices will be affected by these measures. But they are not the only thing which causes a rise in prices. Investment is another major issue and any negative occurence persuades the money to go elsewhere - even a rumour can affect the oil market. Not only that but there is a lot of economic politics being played. Saudi Arabia itself can make a buck or two by bringing into play some uncertainty over the regular supply of oil.

Try thinking outside the box by assuming that:

The USA is in fact subservient to the Saudis;

And that many of our high government elected officials are �employed� by the Saudis;

And that al Qaeda is not a terrorist organization, but the asymmetrical armed forces of Saudi Arabia.


Working with those assumptions does in many ways goes to explain of the reasons for some of the �odd situations� of the mix, so to speak, since 9/11.

I don't see US as ground forces in Saudi, but I will see patrolling oil fields by US service members, after all Saudi oil is very important in US enconomy, the attacks on Saudi prompted a response in the stock market.

Originally posted by gmcnulty


The USA is in fact subservient to the Saudis;

And that many of our high government elected officials are ?employed? by the Saudis;

Quite simply, the world does not work that way.
The Saudi regime was installed by the West. Not the other way round.

Interesting question ab2tw.

To ask for U.S military aid would exacerbate the internal troubles they already have and would see a blurring of the Iraq insurgency into Saudi Arabia itself.So Saudi Arabia can not ask for obvious military aid and I expect they already have covert military aid in the form of intelligence and "advisors".

The other interesting question is how long could the U.S not intervene ,even without an invitation, if the Saudi oil supply was effected by continued terrorism or even revolution/civil war ?

When it comes to oil supplies in my oppinion US will intervene, but then even when Saudi knows that this will be controversial, what do they care if american get kill in their country? as long as their oil supply is safe.

As long as the ones to get kill is americans we are welcome anywhere.

Interesting replies!!!

John Bull,
how long could the U.S not intervene ,even without an invitation, if the Saudi oil supply was effected by continued terrorism or even revolution/civil war ?

That is a critical question.
How high does the price at the pump have to go before the President has no option but to intervene??

Oh, has anyone considered that with the majority of 911 t'rists being Saudi, we could pretty easily find that "THE SAUDIS HARBOR/SUPPORT TERROR PEOPLE!!!" "ON TO BAGDAD, err TEL AVIV, umm WHEREVER!!!!"
(just a bit of humor there at the end...lol) (If in fact they do harbor/support, then lets by ALL MEANS go in, but I HIGHLY doubt that's the case)

Oh!!! US knows they support terrorism, and the rest of the world knows too. But they have oil and we need it, so is business as usual when it comes to Saudi and US. and we go blind to the terrorism conections.

Compared to the news management capability of the Saudi Royal Family, the distortion of news events within the oil kingdom by Fox News pales in comparison.
The Saudis allow terrorists to escape under dubious circumstances then claim to have shot a few "suspects" (see story below) a short time after.

If it were not so close to an election, there is a strong possibility that regular US troops would be a present in Saudi Arabia as they are now in Iraq. Yes, it is well known that US Special Forces are operating in Saudi Arabia, albeit keeping a very low profile.

Those who do not believe this is World War III will in time have their St. Thomas doubts rudely set straight. There is little doubt that when it pleases the hostile opposition, the US mainland and Europe will experience al Qaeda attacks using either nuclear or biological weapons. About this, US presidential hopeful, John Kerry is correct. His timing for protective action, however, is wildly optimistic.

Looks like the bases will be reopening there in SA, if things go for the worse.

One of the resons that Saudi support and finance terrorist I see it like a pact between them so Saudi be spared, because most of the Al-Queda are Saudi nationals, but thinks are turning around and is kicking them in the butt because the relationships between US and Saudi oil.

What a country to do when their people turns against their own?

Scream for help to the US.