China will own Taiwan within 2 yrs.

And who will oppose them?

It's not usual for me to make a prediction but in this case it seems inevitable.

As far as i am aware Taiwanese and Chinese are the same people and the island was originally part of China.

I don't know why the west wants influence in Taiwan, do we have investments in Taiwan? Does anybody really care what happens in Taiwan?

Anyway, today i am prepared to bet that China will do a deal with the west that involves Taiwan becoming part of China.

Any thoughts?

[edit on 10-3-2010 by Cosmic4life]

reply to post by Cosmic4life


I agree with that our waning influence and China's explosive growth means we will most likely step back from the situation in a few years time.

However if I am not mistaken the people of Taiwan want nothing to do with China...we are not in Taiwan as an occupying force(can't say THAT too often )

[edit on 10-3-2010 by Shark_Feeder]

reply to post by Cosmic4life


I am not sure if your familiar with the China/Taiwan thing. But Taiwanese people fled the mainland after Mao’s revolution... It’s an interesting story I recommend you read it.

reply to post by poedxsoldiervet


I am doing so as i write.

Do you think China will use Taiwan as bargaining chip?

reply to post by Cosmic4life


Tawian has advanced fighter planes, If the Chinese are to invaded Tawian the fight would not last long, that is for sure... Now as fas as a barging chip I dont really think China is in the postion to bargin with the US, and we are not in the postion to bargain with them.. We find ourselves in a love/hate relationship.

reply to post by poedxsoldiervet


Wrong.

Taiwan says China now has edge in air power

China now has better fighter jets than Taiwan, according to a military report by the island's defence ministry as the air force Monday renewed its bid to obtain new F-16s from the United States.

Of the three types of fighter jets in Taiwan's air force, only the F-16A/Bs have a slight edge over the Chinese aircraft, the report by the defence ministry found, the Liberty Times newspaper said Monday.

The island's Indigenous Defensive Fighters (IDF) and French-made Mirage 2000-5s were both inferior to the Russian-made Su-30s deployed by China, it said.

reply to post by poedxsoldiervet


you said that taiwan has advanced fighter jets right, and then you said if china invades then the fight will not be long. are you saying that taiwan will win and end the war quickly because they have advanced fighter jets??

I can assure you that the US will not let that happen. There are plans already in place for such an event With US personnel forward deployed only a short distance away in Okinawa, they can be on scene quickly.

China has a well known policy .. the ONE CHINA policy .. they have been wanting Tawian back for sometime ..
www.chinapost.com.tw...
The United States and China came close to conflict over Taiwan in 1996, when President Bill Clinton deployed warships in response to China lobbing missiles into waters near Taiwan... If China could take Taiwan in one small swoop ... I think they would do it ...

Originally posted by Vonour
China has a well known policy .. the ONE CHINA policy .. they have been wanting Tawian back for sometime ..

You're forgetting (or unaware of) the other side of the issue: Taiwan ALSO has a One China policy. That's been the issue all along: Taiwan is not simply a small island wanting independence, they have - from the beginning - seen themselves as the True rulers of Mainland China* as well. In the beginning, the West backed Chiang Kai-shek in the hopes that he would be able to overthrow Mao after the revolution, and then they'd have a nice western puppet state. Didn't quite work out that way, though.

Personally, I doubt China will make any military move at all towards Taiwan in my lifetime. China doesn't need Taiwan nearly as much as it did 25 years ago. Taiwan, on the other hand, needs China a lot more than ever. Thus, trade will open up further between the two, and where there are good trade relations there's rarely ever a war. Bad for business, see?

*note: Mainland China includes everything within the current borders of the PRC, Mongolia in its entirety, as well as parts of India, Nepal, Burma, Bhutan, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Japan. map

reply to post by vox2442

It seems that you are the only one who really understand the background of the
whole Taiwan issue. so called "知华派".
I had prepared to say something in this thread, finally decided to give up.
For, most of Americans don't have basic knowledge about Taiwan affair, discussing this issue with them just wastes time.


[edit on 11-3-2010 by gs001]

Originally posted by RizeorDie
reply to post by poedxsoldiervet

 

you said that taiwan has advanced fighter jets right, and then you said if china invades then the fight will not be long. are you saying that taiwan will win and end the war quickly because they have advanced fighter jets??

No I am saying the Chinese would steam roll the little Island state, Taiwan may have advance tech but there is China who has numbers and some tech to boot.

Originally posted by gs001
reply to post by vox2442

 

It seems that you are the only one who really understand the background of the
whole Taiwan issue. so called "知华派".
I had prepared to say something in this thread, finally decided to give up.
For, most of Americans don't have basic knowledge about Taiwan affair, discussing this issue with them just wastes time.

[edit on 11-3-2010 by gs001]

To be fair, before I moved to Japan I don't think I'd ever even considered that the way China (and Japan, and Korea, and in fact most of Asia) is shown in the media might not be reality.

I feel a bit embarrassed about it sometimes, because for all the time I spent railing against government backed half-truths and lobbyist funded lies in the media on other issues, I'd accepted as fact the same things when applied to a good chunk of the population of the planet.

It helps to remind myself of all this sometimes. People are willing to accept at face value some extremely far-fetched claims about what goes on in this part of the world, simply because they've never been and they don't speak the language, and they've never had any reason to believe that things might not be the way they think they are. Therefore, all Chinese are government agents or oppressed, all Japanese are samurai or otaku, Taiwan is full of freedom fighters, Korea is a land of dog meat shops and laundromats, and nothing ever happens in Mongolia.

It's changing though, albeit slowly. Took me quite a while, I know that.

Originally posted by gs001
reply to post by vox2442

 

It seems that you are the only one who really understand the background of the
whole Taiwan issue. so called "知华派".
I had prepared to say something in this thread, finally decided to give up.
For, most of Americans don't have basic knowledge about Taiwan affair, discussing this issue with them just wastes time.

[edit on 11-3-2010 by gs001]

I wouldn't exactly say that.

ATS is not the same as mainstream America, though that's slowly changing as well, imo.

However, many US citizens have close friends and family that are Taiwanese. Also Chinese.

We certainly are interested in everything going on with China, and thanks to the poster of the China map.

Also, with all the different contaminated products from China, a lot of people are interested in them in that regard.

Originally posted by Cosmic4life
And who will oppose them?

It's not usual for me to make a prediction but in this case it seems inevitable.

As far as i am aware Taiwanese and Chinese are the same people and the island was originally part of China.

I don't know why the west wants influence in Taiwan, do we have investments in Taiwan? Does anybody really care what happens in Taiwan?

Anyway, today i am prepared to bet that China will do a deal with the west that involves Taiwan becoming part of China.

Any thoughts?

[edit on 10-3-2010 by Cosmic4life]

Actually, China, (The People’s Republic of China) used to be part of Taiwan (The Republic of China). Taiwan is the remains of China after the war with Japan and the civil war against the communist party.

I don’t see China ever invading Taiwan, unless Taiwan declares independence. I don’t really see wither doing this. Neither wants a war.

At least the cover of my current notebook is topical...





Also, that cover art would be what is known as 'retro' because China has been singing the "Taiwan belongs to us" song for about 60 years now.

If Mao came back from the dead tomorrow, his first question would be: "Where in the hell is Taiwan?" His second question? "Does that KFC place make a good chicken?"

Be that as it may...

Taiwan thinks IT is the real China.

And, you guessed it, China thinks IT is the real China.

Sometimes I think I am The Omega Man (The Chuck Heston version).

But none of that matters. As others in this thread have already mentioned, as long as the business of doing business keeps going on...nothing will change. No war, no change of ownership.

However, both Taiwan and China's governments enjoy employing the Taiwan/China "issue" as a way of distracting their cattle, I mean citizens, from thinking about other more mundane things...like quality of life.

The Omega Man.

Taiwan may well end up being the US's "Suez Moment".

Wonder what will happen to that big toumb of Chiang-Kai Sheck?

I'm betting most of the treasures hidden at the National Palace Museum will quickly be spirited back to Beijing, from whence most were originally taken in '49.

You know what will really be interesting? In 20 years or so Taiwan will long since have become part of China, and the same kinds of sphere-of-influence arguments the US and China are now having over Taiwan they may then be having instead over, say, Japan or Korea.

[edit on 7/5/10 by silent thunder]

Here's an interesting article that details an agreement that boosts trade normalization between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan.

The additional analysis on site offers a lot more information.

the u.s has used taiwan as a bargaining chip. the reason why China has liberalised its economy so much over the years is because the west has threatened to use taiwan as a staging area for destabilisation. the west has several bargaining chips in the asia pacific theatre. one is obviously taiwan, but others include hong kong, south korea, and japan. the west can easily use taiwan or hk for destabilisation, and have a bunch of hongers, and taiwanese start some riots on the streets and then use this as a reason to send western troops. this type of destabilisation is very threatning to the central govt. taiwan is of no use to neither the usa, nor mainland China, but the usa must use taiwan to destabilise China in order to prevent China from becomining strong, or developing economically. if mainland China is tied up with a subversive taiwan, then it must divert attention towards taiwan that it might otherwise use to develop its economy, military and other parts of mainland development. i dont see beijing invading taiwan, but i do see taiwan possibly using terrorism to threaten the mainland. taiwan also threatens beijing with independence in order to extort investments from the mainland towards taiwan. if not for mainland investments on taiwan, the taiwanese economy would have tanked already, even the taiwanese themselves will admit to this. however, they are far from thankful for the investments that they have extorted from the mainland. in a bigger picture, you can see the same style of extortion used by the filipino govt. most taiwanese are politically unaware, and play right into the desires of the imperialists. taiwanese are very pro imperialist, worship westerners, and japanese. they are the perfect pupet state.

Originally posted by poedxsoldiervet
reply to post by Cosmic4life

 

Tawian has advanced fighter planes, If the Chinese are to invaded Tawian the fight would not last long, that is for sure... Now as fas as a barging chip I dont really think China is in the postion to bargin with the US, and we are not in the postion to bargain with them.. We find ourselves in a love/hate relationship.

That sounds a bit dull to me.. Just because a country has more advance fighter planes does not mean that the fight would not last long..
What happened in Afghanistan, Iraq and Vietnam..