CME might be heading for earth - how can it be a 'big unknown'?

Originally posted by nltkn
reply to post by Phlynx

 

I have been questioning if they knew exactly what was coming.. and when. and their obvious and sort of to me obnoxious aloofness about what and where it was heading was their way of telling us they knew but were not telling.

I've been wondering the same. It just doesn't make sense. They can either track a CME or they can't. And if there are complications to this tracking procedure (like someone posted earlier) then why no mention of this? They could say "It is currently a big unknown, but scientists are working on tracking it..." etc. with maybe a few lines about the (possible) complications of tracking a CME. But I haven't found anything about that. I've been to all the major space websites and nothing else has been mentioned. Is it that just not enough people are interested, so they don't bother? But that's inconsistent, if they bother to say that three CMEs have been generated, you'd think they'd update about that saying whether or not they were earthbound - rather than leaving a loose end. I mean why bother making this comment in the first place:

"If any of this material is heading for Earth--a big unknown! It should arrive on Feb. 27th or 28th. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras on those dates."

- if they're not going to follow it up with any information. (Especially with that dramatic "a big unknown!".) Frustrating to say the least.

ive been watching the magnetosphere monitoring site over the last few days ( www2.nict.go.jp... )

theirs been some interesting activity today, im not sure if it might be the signal that its arrived .. but it deffinitelly is something hitting out atmosphere.

12:14 today (just over 4 hours ago)

one thing weird i have noticed, the pic from 15 mins before the one linked above,does not have the image which shows the pressure? . (is this normal, im not a hardcore magnetosphere watcher)

all seems to be back to normal for now... (im still watching though)

btw, this is more of a question .. as im unsure on this type of science, i enjoy pretending to understand but dont fully understand! ..all i know is that the magnetosphere shoudl do something when/if the cme hits us.

[edit on 28-2-2010 by boaby_phet]

[edit on 28-2-2010 by boaby_phet]

reply to post by boaby_phet


Yes it's still a question to many, the truth is we can only go on the data we have been shown. Who knows what is being kept from us, I agree with the theory though. However I think there is more too it than just energy from The Sun, and thats Gamma Rays or other types of energy from outside our Solar System.

Maybe worth keeping an eye on Gamma Rays over the next 20/30 hours.

Link

Originally posted by Aelfrede
I've been wondering the same. It just doesn't make sense. They can either track a CME or they can't. And if there are complications to this tracking procedure (like someone posted earlier) then why no mention of this?

I've been trying to research this, and I found an interesting paper that sheds a little light but not much:

redalyc.uaemex.mx...

If I understand their technique correctly, it allows the tracking of CMEs which are NOT headed toward the earth quite well, especially of they are emitted from the sun radially in a direction perpendicular to the direction of the Earth. They have pictures in the paper showing what the CME looks like when they track it.

They are trying to measure it accurately enough to tell whether the velocity is speeding up or slowing down.

Now as far as I can tell, this particular technique won't work at all if the CME is headed straight for earth, so there may be other techniques to track those CMEs. In fact this paper mentions some other tracking techniques, but most of the other papers seem to be paid articles and I'm too cheap to pay for them, especially since they may not give me any more answers than this free paper.

[edit on 28-2-2010 by Arbitrageur]

Whether they can ttrack them or not, a big one just went off:

sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov...

This is a bigger one than most I've seen. Should be interesting if it's headed our way.

reply to post by Aelfrede




A show on the History channel explained it well once. Just like the poster stated, you need to points.

If you have a train of unknown length coming right at you, it is hard to know how long it is, and how fast, because you are looking at it head on.

You have to look at it from teh side, then you can take the starting point and any other point on route and do the calculations.

reply to post by apacheman

This is a bigger one than most I've seen. Should be interesting if it's headed our way.

It isn't.
Here's the view from STEREO B. Earth is to the left.



[edit on 2/28/2010 by Phage]

[edit on 2/28/2010 by Phage]

Massive cme, thank goodness it's on the farside.

Here's a movie:

spaceweather.com...

Latest SOHO:

reply to post by apacheman


aye carumba!

just imagine how big that explosion actualy is! its ming boggling!

how many earths could fit in that blast?!?!?!

things are getting hot upstairs (magnetosphere level)

in the images that show the pressure on the bow shock / magnetosheath has gone through the roof in the last few hours, its actualy reached the top of their scale (its gone to the white stage, after red .. but i suspect they can change the scale at will )



im no expert, but i think this is the cme hitting us now... and the tv is still working

[edit on 28-2-2010 by boaby_phet]

New movie, long range camera:

spaceweather.com...

Latest SOHO:







Comment: Yikes! Getting lively.

reply to post by boaby_phet


Yes maybe the CME is hitting us (Not from the recent blast, as that was away from Earth), and yes the bow shock does that "It means the magnetosphere is doing it's job"

Remember it takes around 2-3 days for a CME to hit Earth if it's heading in our direction.

PHAGE posted a brilliant topic on RTMS, probably worth checking it out.

What else does the Magnetosphere Simulation tell us?

What the latest CME tells us is there is possible sunspot activity on the farside of The Sun, should be interesting to see when it's facing Earth. Nothing to worry about though, Sun Spots happen, just a few of us are excited to see them again. Especially now we have so much tech up there to gain a better understanding of Solar Activity.





[edit on 1-3-2010 by NotAgain]

reply to post by NotAgain


cool, what you said is pretty much what i thought anyway , thanks for clararying

im not worried , im excited ... theirs a small chance of some colors in the sky, and i want to see it. (unless this was the wrong sort of activity lol , then im waiting for nothing hahaha)

so when the sun erupts a massive cme like the one it did on the 28th, is it different than the large filament (caused by a cme.. right?) which was being observed before the japan and chile quakes hit? in comparison, the cme on the 28th looks huge compared to a lot of other cme's recently expedited from the sun. also.. are people generally under the impression that the solar activity as of late (cme's in particular) is the primary factor at work behind the chili quake.. that's the impression I have been led to believe. or is it generally acknowledged as normal geological activity? I definitely have been keeping a wary eye on the 3d sun app on the iphone lately.. calm my fears/wariness please if i have this all wrong.

reply to post by Aelfrede

Big CMEs are caused by planet-sized debris or chunks of rock or Iron splashing into the Photosphere (surface) of the sun near a sunspot or flare. The magnetic loops of the flare become heavily laden with pieces of the surface ,snap like a rail gun and fling the particles of photosphere toward the earth- only if that planet-sized boulder comes in at an angle aimed at the earth. Just last week , I saw a lasco 3 movie showing a large planet-size rock fall rapidly toward the eastern limb, disappear around the back of the sun, then emerge around the Western Limb and then skim along the surface , splashing up a huge CME as it headed far below the surface of the sun. The inside of the sun is pitch dark and is a mystery. Is the sun hollow ?

Originally posted by siluriancryptic
Just last week , I saw a lasco 3 movie showing a large planet-size rock fall rapidly toward the eastern limb, disappear around the back of the sun, then emerge around the Western Limb and then skim along the surface , splashing up a huge CME as it headed far below the surface of the sun. The inside of the sun is pitch dark and is a mystery. Is the sun hollow ?

What's your source for this?

I don't think there are any planet size chunks of rock in our solar system in the vicinity of the sun aside from the 8 planets we know about (not all of which are rocky), and unless we are missing some planets (are we?), there are no planet sized rocks crashing into or barely missing the sun.

Regarding the sun being hollow, does this mean you don't accept the nuclear fusion theory?
What makes you think the inside of the sun is pitch dark? And if it's a mystery, how do you know what it's like?

reply to post by Arbitrageur


I too would like to know what this guy is talking about...


Must be imporant enough to bump a two year old thread haha.