Alert - Imminent STock Market Crash

Try studying the graph of the DOw Jones form 1980 to Today.

finance.yahoo.com...

It forms a classic TRIPLE TOP FORMATION. The left shoulder was long ago completed. The head was completed by the Credit Crunch. The right hand shoulder is not being completed.

For a crash to take place, two things must available:-

1. A blind panic setting in
2. Enough people in the market to panic to shift the market enough.

On this basis, a crash is likely at some time in February-March and in May 2010.

With Britain required to go to thepolls by 3rd June 2010, some things possibly able to crash the market...

1. Tuesday's vote in UK House of Commons. If the vote for proportional representation is carried, it means that if the Tories don't outright win, Labour and Liberals would combine in a post General Election to keep Labour in power. Result? UNending borrowing and bond sales. With that ahead, investors in UK bonds might start selling hard, causing a fiasco at Government refinancing and a sharp de facto rise in yields, resulting in a crash.

2. UK Government does giveaway budget to get the voters in March. Panic as the haenous budget deficit is clearly not being tackled, sharp sell off in bonds. Loss of assets triggers new bank failure and with the Election days away, Gordo promises to bail it out at any cost, triggering whole new cycle of crash.

3. New Greek budget fails to meet IMF hopes for deficit tackling. Moody's and astandard & Poor downgrade Greek bonds, resulting in panic and crash.

4. With Greece on the ropes, Gordo's budget continues to run out of control. Standard & Poors and Moody's rerate UK bonds down from AAA to AA - panic selling on market as peopel realise that he can no longer finance, result crash.

5. New terrorist incident.

6. Iran proudly announces that its scientists have achieved 50% enrichment on 11th. Israel goes to war days afterwards triggering at least what is perceived to be WW3. Result? Crash.

7. Figures on Christmas shopping and recovery revised or updated with ones showing recovery is not slow but non-existent. Result CRASH!

8. Selling that has brought DOW JONES down to 9900 is perceived to be "someone knows something" as there is no "dead cat bounce" or retracement, but it is persistent selling.

Either way, there is no way out of this box other than a crash in the near future. ANd when it does, the market will fall to about 4400 or lower within a few weeks.



[edit on 9-2-2010 by aristocrat2]

reply to post by aristocrat2


Well if this is the case, I am calling my broker to start shorting my positions...anxiously awaiting.

Are these your opinions or the uncited content of another website? If they are yours I applaud the swivet!

If you are using the triple top method, or head and shoulders theory, then the real crash is still years away because the right shoulder will still need to develop. If this is accurate then we will se stagnation for several more years and then KABOOM.

reply to post by Moonsouljah


They are my opinion. (I used to work for a commodity brokerage at the time of the great crash in the Tin Market and later for a stock brokers in the late 1980's).

And this is something that is going to surprise anyone? The economy is extremely voilitile and it seems February is a key month for some major events thanks to the 2010 Olympics; lots of war rhetoric and propaganda.

Remember Georgia during the Beijing Olympics with the US/Russia proxy war?

This is a month that could be very bad for both war and economy... I am wary of it; but again... I'm a lot more wary of everything since 9/11.

Interesting read. Not sure how serious I would take the tea leaf translation, but its a good what if Short creative writing piece..



I would not be suprised to see the the Middle East jumping off soon. Just dunno how or the when.. Think its getting close thou.. Year or two..

[edit on 9-2-2010 by Bicent76]

reply to post by aristocrat2


save the picture, analyze what you are saying by using paint or something, then paste it back on this thread, if you need help let me know

reply to post by TruthWithin


Actually, the as the market works on ADAPTIVE EXPECTATIONS not RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS< the right shoulder is often a shadow of the left shoulder.

Even so, I would hazard a guess that the snow and time of year means that there are still too few people actually trading to drive a crash until, probably about March. A garbage budget form Alastair Darling ( a true oxymoron of a name ) on a Tuesday near the end of March would probably do it.

INterestingly enough, by the way, I am hearing, admittedly on here, ATS, of a bunch of currency trades from Switzerland and also a meeting of bankers in Sydney AUstralia, one of the places which many feel will be the new political capital of the new NWO currency and ultimately the One-World Government.

Maybe it's all about to blow and theya re just keeping it ticking along ofr a few more days whilst they make the necessary arrangements for when they let it go bang in a few days time.

The biggest problem you are going to have is number one it is not logarithmic, so your results are way skewed. Actually totally worthless. Try again with a LOG chart.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by aristocrat2

 

save the picture, analyze what you are saying by using paint or something, then paste it back on this thread, if you need help let me know

The shape of the Dow Jones graph and other factors indicate the DOw Jones and world markets are about to plummet about 5000 plus points, wrecking the "recovery".

No flight to "quality" this time around as US and UK bonds would appear to be shady and dangerous.

US Dollar plummets in days to leave the Canadian dollar hurtling into the stratosphere..

Bank failures follow until the FDIC runs out of cash a few days later.

US Government becomes quickly unable to raise money on the bnod markets to bail out the banks.

In a few weeks, US Government can't even raise enough dough to finance paying the interest. Finally defaults. US disintegrates - strikes, riots, states ceeding, the works!

reply to post by aristocrat2


no... just no

get a logarithmic chart, then we will talk

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
The biggest problem you are going to have is number one it is not logarithmic, so your results are way skewed. Actually totally worthless. Try again with a LOG chart.

Some beileve in logarithmic charts, I happen to believe in good 'ole fashioned flat numbers, which is why i removed the LOG, even so, it still shows roughly the same on the log chart.

[edit on 9-2-2010 by aristocrat2]

Here is what he is talking about.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/891327ebdf35.png[/atsimg]

[edit on 9-2-2010 by TruthWithin]

reply to post by aristocrat2


no it doesnt

not even close

logartihmic charts are based on percentages. did you even know this?

are you reading this all from karl denninger and his friend tyler d?

dont waste my time (actually, i dont mind, just kidding) I would like to see you analyze a logarthimic chart and prove your thesis. without this, this is just another bunk ass thread

reply to post by aristocrat2

If Iran sets off a small nuclear bomb in a remote area of Iran,
will the stock market crash???

Take a look at a chart from like 1930

This same exact formation has happened many times.

In fact one formed from 35-45 - same thing, then the market took off

This doesn't have any historical prescedent, so you will have to be quite convincing.


Here




[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/b3eab8c5453b.jpg[/atsimg]

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by aristocrat2

 

no it doesnt

not even close

logartihmic charts are based on percentages. did you even know this?

are you reading this all from karl denninger and his friend tyler d?

dont waste my time (actually, i dont mind, just kidding) I would like to see you analyze a logarthimic chart and prove your thesis. without this, this is just another bunk ass thread

In late September 1985, I predicted the Tin Market would crash. My boss at GW Joynsons was angry as she said this was rubbish. I was fired, but she was so angry that, curiously, she made me work my notice period. My last day at Joynsons was, ironically 24th October 1985, the exact day that the price of tin fell by over 50%.

In January 1987, I predicted that the stock market would crash and probably in the same week that it had in 1929. I thought that I was getting my friends out of stock by a safe margin of time, but I actually only just got them out in time. And the market did crashon exactly the same week as it had in 1929.

I fulyl realise that logarithmic charts work on percentages, but as I said, some of us don't work on just the percentages but do technical analysis on the hard figures. If this was not so, how come that people like YAHOO would provide such data if all were agreed on using log charts? Your argument makes no sense.

Originally posted by Eurisko2012
reply to post by aristocrat2

 

If Iran sets off a small nuclear bomb in a remote area of Iran,
will the stock market crash???

No of course not, why, doesn;'t everyone love eating glow in the dark oranges from Jaffa in Israel?

Sorry, but that was sarcastic of me. I guess another sarcastic answer would be DUH!

reply to post by aristocrat2


lol

ok.

i am done on your thread, but I warn you dont be too short and use good risk management.

GL

EDIT:

Ill add my 2 cents, this is a consolidation phase

(as are those others I highlighted)

again GL

[edit on 9-2-2010 by GreenBicMan]