Middle East on fire

Tehran to possibly liquidate Nasrallah : ex-Iran president

French media reported Sunday that the International Lebanon Tribunal will charge Iran and Hezbollah with the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri while former Iranian president Abol Hassan Bani Sadr said Iran is expected to liquidate Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah when the report comes out.

The Islamic Revolution, an Iranian opposition newspaper known for its close ties to former Iranian president Abol Hassan Bani Sadr published an article about a French radio report stating that General Qassem Suleimani, head of the Iran's Quds Brigade, affiliated to the elite Revolutionary Guards ordered the late Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh to carry out the assassination of Hariri in 2005.
Mughniyeh was killed in 2008 in the Syrian capital Damascus and both Iran and Hezbollah accused the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad of assasinating him.

According to the French report, the assassination of Hariri was assigned to both Mughniyeh and one of his relatives called Mustafa Badr al-Din and the operation was carried out through full coordination between Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guards.

Possible... since Nasrallah is more ``independant`` than people think, he's not a total puppet of Iran.

And about the explosion, almost every news source is saying it's something different... if it was a naval mine... what ship did it sink?

the army command: we do not receive the orders of the International Tribunal

Oh boy.

As for the explosions sounds, CONFIRMED it was in fact sonic booms by the Israeli air force.... doing this at 10PM is very unusual.... so it's a message.

UPDATE on the explosion... it seems it was in fact SONIC BOMBS, not sonic booms... sonic bombs are anti-riot devices that make a loud bomb sound.

According to several Lebanese average people on the ground, the really think this time civil war will break out again as soon as this week-end and that Hezbollah will takeover without much difficulty.

Egypt FM warns: Don’t mess with Lebanon

"Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit warned against messing with Lebanon during an interview with Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Rai to be published Friday.

Any party that wants to mess with its (stability) will have to confront several foes … Lebanese, Arabs and others,” he said .

He stressed that stability in Lebanon was “everyone’s essential demand...”

Lebanon’s worst crisis in years escalated dangerously on Thursday, as a last-ditch negotiations broke down over expected indictments of Hezbollah members in the assassination of the prime minister’s father, and the prime minister, Saad al-Hariri, struck a defiant note toward Hezbollah and its allies in a speech.

“The problem now is Prime Minister Hariri,” said a senior opposition official allied with Hezbollah. “He is still a candidate and we don’t want him anymore.”

“It’s on the razor’s edge,” Walid Jumblatt, a politician and leader of a minority community who has emerged as a kingmaker, said in an interview. “I can see the nervousness of Hezbollah and the Syrians. They feel — and they are right to feel — outmaneuvered and betrayed.” He warned the crisis “might blow up the whole country.”

Finally the MSM waking up a little.

If i got that right,then Hariri wants to stay in Power,which will lead to Civil War,which will lead to Hezbollah taking over,which will lead to Israel/USA attacking Lebanon/Hezbollah,which will lead to the the rest of the Middle East and the Arabs attacking Israel/USA?

Damnit

Originally posted by Shenon
If i got that right,then Hariri wants to stay in Power,which will lead to Civil War,which will lead to Hezbollah taking over,which will lead to Israel/USA attacking Lebanon/Hezbollah,which will lead to the the rest of the Middle East and the Arabs attacking Israel/USA?

Right... but the even more crazy thing... is that Saudi Arabia and Egypt could side with Israel on this one... that would mean Syria-Iran-Hezbollah against Egypt-Saudi Arabia-Israel-US.

The only way to avoid this... is for Hezbollah to back down and accept Hariri as PM... which is unlikely.

Now I won't even talk about what would happen if full war between all those countries break out... the price of oil... the world economy... if chemical weapons are used this could lead to nuclear war.

reply to post by Vitchilo


Im worried that Turkey could join in if its escalates...we have a lot of them here in Germany...

Originally posted by Shenon
reply to post by Vitchilo

 

Im worried that Turkey could join in if its escalates...we have a lot of them here in Germany...

Turkey said they would not stand still if Israel invades Lebanon or Gaza....

Turkey-Israel relations are at an all time low.

But Turkey is in NATO and has accepted the missile shield after all... so they have ``good relations`` with NATO... but relations with the EU are not so good since the EU has been laughing at Turkey for quite some time and has not accepted them into the union, which has created much anger in Turkey.

Worst case scenario, Turkey sides with Hezbollah-Iran-Syria... and Turkey's army is quite strong, they could give Israel a run for their money.

Russia also have a big military base in Syria... now just imagine if Israel bombs it by mistake or nuke Syria... Russia wouldn't like that very much at all.

Of course this is the worst worst worst worst case... which has no chances of happening.

Israel concerned about possible fallout from Lebanon government split

The Lebanese political crisis, triggered by Hezbollah's departure from government last week, has Israel worried that the situation could become violent and spill over the Israel-Lebanon border.

Israel is concerned that Hezbollah, which fought Israeli troops to a stand-still in a brief 2006 war, might stir tensions along the border in order to prove it is an indispensable line of defense against Israel – and thus gain the upper hand in the domestic stand-off.

"People are worried that things could get out of control,’’ says Eyal Zisser, a professor of political science at Tel Aviv University, "and that Hezbollah will want to divert attention from domestic problems in Lebanon, and the result will be an escalation on the border.’’

Would Hezbollah try to take over Lebanon?

Though Israel already considers Hezbollah the strongest military power in Lebanon, many worry that the Iranian-backed group may one day completely take over its northern neighbor. Many Israelis also recognize, however, that Hezbollah might not want the headache of formal control.

"They will have to take into account the other communities, like the Sunnis and the Christians, who will not be happy,’’ says Moshe Maoz, a professor of political science at Hebrew University in Jerusalem. "I don't know if Syria would like to see Lebanon turn into a Shiite state because it is Sunni and secular.’’

Interesting.

reply to post by Vitchilo


Israel and Egypt vs Hezbollah and Syria? Think of the implications.. If something like that does occur (highly unlikely though..) things in the middle east could change radically... Also if Egypt and Saudi joins the fight I doubt Syria and Turkey are going to join the fight and risk division within the Arab nations.

reply to post by Eliad

Israel and Egypt vs Hezbollah and Syria? Think of the implications.. If something like that does occur (highly unlikely though..) things in the middle east could change radically... Also if Egypt and Saudi joins the fight I doubt Syria and Turkey are going to join the fight and risk division within the Arab nations.

I can't imagine these scenarios in *my* wildest dreams.

While Israel and Egypt are *cooperative* to an extent, can you imagine the Egyptian populace supporting an overt military op with Israel? That would bring up the underground B'hood and risk overthrowing Mubarak?

Things seem volatile...but not much MSM reporting here in the US...which makes me wonder...

Peaceful thoughts and prayers to you, and all my friends and family in the surrounding areas.

Man to be honest i thought this was a one day wonder and would've blown over by now boy was I wrong i just hope everything goes smoothly in Lebanon, those people have suffered enough the last thing they want right now is another financially ( and emotionally) draining war with their (possible) neighbors. Here's hoping to have cooler heads prevail extra points to Israel if it's their cool heads.....just saiyan (sorry for the dbz pun) xD

reply to post by Eliad

Israel and Egypt vs Hezbollah and Syria? Think of the implications.. If something like that does occur (highly unlikely though..) things in the middle east could change radically...

Well according to the sources on the ground, Hariri received a call saying exactly that... that if that happened, Israel-Egypt-Saudi Arabia would come in to get rid of Hezbollah. That's why he changed his stance at the last minute and decided to stick with his candidacy.

The Egyptian foreign minister also said that if Hezbollah tried to take over, Arabs and everyone in the region would not let this happen.

Egypt is a US puppet after all, Saudi Arabia too... and Saudi Arabia is a foe of Iran... taking out Hezbollah would be in their interest.

Remember yesterday there were armed men in downtown Beirut amassing and armed and a branch of the Lebanese army raided them? Yeah, it was Saudis and another arab country nationals...

But yeah I agree... if that happens, riots in Saudi Arabia and Egypt will happen, if not revolutions... so this would be very dangerous... and lots of very dangerous scenarios come to mind...

I hope this will end up peacefully... but if even people on the ground think it'll go hot for sure... yeah.


While this is going on in Israel..
PM: Israel will work to disconnect Gaza from power grid

Netanyahu told Alliot-Marie, who is scheduled to visit Gaza on Friday, that Israel would work toward “disengaging” from Gaza’s infrastructure, starting with removing the area from Israel’s water and electricity grids.

That's so nice.

While this is going on in Israel.. PM: Israel will work to disconnect Gaza from power grid

Netanyahu told Alliot-Marie, who is scheduled to visit Gaza on Friday, that Israel would work toward “disengaging” from Gaza’s infrastructure, starting with removing the area from Israel’s water and electricity grids.

That's so nice.

More like a "we-send-you-back-to-the-dark-ages" nice

Where I live, the MSM hasn't reported any of this, even though it's pretty serious and could have major repercussions on the world if it will start a bigger scale war.

reply to post by flk1331


MSM will only start talking about it wordwide when bullets start flying...

8:27am Caretaker Minister Ali Abdullah to VDL (93.3): We have almost reached a dead-end. Security wise, there won’t be any deterioration.

Hopefully.

8:29am Caretaker Minister Butros Harb to VDL (100.5): March 8 team’s main objective is to remove Hariri from power.

Ya think?

8:40am MTV: PSP leader Walid Jumblat postponed his press conference that was scheduled for noon Friday till 4:30 pm.

More talks behind the scenes... after all Jumblat move is very important...Basically the side he chooses will form the government.

8:45am VDL (100.5): Qatar’s emir could head to Lebanon on Friday after a surprise visit to Damascus on Thursday.

Hopefully helps.

10:40am Sayyed Ali Fadlallah during his Friday sermon: The Lebanese should unify and coordinate to have internal peace.

+1

al-Faisal: Saudi Arabia's policy towards Lebanon will not change, and we are with the legitimate and the majority

Basically are with Hariri.

ALJADEED TV: intensive Israeli mock air raids and flares in the skies of the South

Real freaking nice. AGAIN. Threatening the population to not side with Hezbollah basically. Except it can have the contrary effect...since most people believe the only ones able to stand up to Israel are Hezbollah....and not the Lebanese government...which might be their real aim.

14 March Official Site: Jumblatt was threatened directly

To side with Hezbollah.

LF leader Samir Geagea postponed his trip to Paris over the deteriorating situation in Lebanon.

Good.

Albaladnews: Lebanese army carries out the wide spread and walking foot and motorized patrols in various regions of Lebanon

Showing how the tensions are high. And a message to Hezbollah.

Washington reaffirms its support of the stl

Of course.

Hadi Hubaysh: all the possible scenarios and any armed coup will lead to the destruction of the country as a whole

Unfortunately.

2:37pm Hariri met with ISF chief Maj. Gen. Ashrafi Rifi and discussed with him the latest security situation.

Which is not quite good.

ABC: Lebanon crisis a test for the US

Really? It's more a test for Hariri and the Lebanese people. It'll be a test for the US if they can stop Israel from attacking Lebanon and destroying everything like in 2006.

hezbollah and psp deny rumors about armed forces deployment

marouni calls for postponement of parliamentary consultations

sakr: "people fear strife, not jumblatt's position."

Except Jumblatt position could cause strife.

UN's ban ki moon is worried about political crises in Lebanon

Just now?

Said: fighting a battle with all our strength to deliver the person who maintains the diversity in Lebanon

Hashem: Jumblatt supports Resistance and Syria

More mock air raids by Israeli warplanes in southern Lebanon

International Tribunal: Publication of any information concerning the resolution is a presumptive violation of the law.

TOO LATE FOR THAT.

American University of Beirut closely monitoring the situation in the country

according to psp sources: jumblatt fears internal violence and has no choice but to back hezbollah.

Jumblatt: the Court has become a tool to sabotage

Indeed.

Jumblatt: Arab peace initiative included the abolition of the Protocol of the Court and the withdrawal of the judges and the suspension of funding by the Lebanese side

Indeed.

Jumblatt: Western countries do not want to Saudi-Syrian rapprochement to achieve a settlement

From looking at him make his speech, he looks very stressed.

Walid Jumblatt says he was pressured by ambassadors and envoys to support the International Tribunal

jumblatt says justice should not come without security

+1

Jumblatt: I declare the stability of the Socialist Party along with Syria and the resistance

Jumblatt says western countries sabotaged syra-saudi talks and therefor detorated the situation to what it is today

Jumblat: stl and indictment lack credibility

Jumblatt: Any effort to eliminate a faction in Lebanon is an impossible venture so its better to be calm and discuss things

Indeed.

Veteran Lebanese politician Walid Jumblatt recently gave his prediction as the country approaches a political crisis that has been festering for almost six years.

"We're going to hell," he said.

There are many who agree that Lebanon, once a beacon of multiculturalism in the Middle East, is heading for another civil war.

Yep and it's sad.

Jumblatt has no other choice but to back Hezbollah, says official

"It is clear that [Democratic Gathering bloc leader MP Walid] Jumblatt fears sectarian violence and has no other choice but to back Hezbollah," said an official close to Jumblatt’s parliamentary bloc.

"We are hanging by a thread and maybe if Hezbollah has its way the situation won't escalate into violence," the official who spoke on condition of anonymity told AFP.

You may avoid civil war, but will you avoid a US-Israel-Egypt-Saudi Arabia invasion as the US warned Hariri would happen if Hezbollah took over?

Zahra: March 8 playing a game to reach power at any cost
And March 14 to stay in power...

One of Qabbani's Bodyguards Killed by Friendly Fire, Civilian Injured
Paranoid much?

Today’s Al-Akhbar newspaper was bold enough to run with the headlines: “March 14 forces bid farewell to power… Hariri is ousted from power with Jumblatt’s votes.”

The report also said that Hezbollah and the PSP’s security surfaced on the outskirts of the Aley towns of Qomattiya and Kayfoun.However, the report did not elaborate further.

March 14: Hezbollah rehearsal in Beirut last weekend was addressed to Walid Jumblatt

Thing is, in his most recent meeting today, a lot of his own party supported Hariri...so the PSP party will probably break up if he sides with Hezbollah.

LBC: Jumblatt said they will give votes to the opposition

Well then, a break up is probably certain.

Lebanese Army Commander, General Jean Kahwaji, received on Friday at his office in Yarzi Russian Ambassador to Lebanon, Alexander Zasypkin, accompanied by the Military Attaché, General Raphael Kormushoff, with talks touching on general situation and means to boost cooperation between Lebanese and Russian armies.
Interesting.

PSP denies halt in work of liaison commission with Hezbollah

“If Hezbollah was attempting to scare the Lebanese people, then it succeeded… and if it wanted to make everyone understand that its primary battlefield is against [Lebanese parties] and not Israel, then it has also succeeded,” the statement said

As U.S. backed government falls, Lebanon is on the brink of violence
Finally the US medias awakening.

The guided-missile destroyer USS Higgins (DDG 76) will depart San Diego Jan. 20 on a six-month independent deployment to the 5th Fleet Area of Responsibility (AOR).

Higgins will also be tasked with providing ballistic missile defense (BMD) to U.S. and allied forces in the Middle East.

Departed yesterday for the middle-east then.

The Lebanese army issued a statement on Friday that it is deploying its troops in all Lebanese regions “to maintain security and stability and reassure the citizens” in light of the latest developments.
Kinda old news since it was reported yesterday by sources on the ground.

Apparently, all is quiet for now... but lots of Hezbollah people moving around in Lebanon...unarmed..maybe they are mobilizing a part of their force. Which they are denying of course.

According to some Lebanese I speak to, the Jumblatt speech is a message to Israel... a cry for help against Syria.

AP: Potential kingmaker in Lebanon supports Hezbollah

So from reports on the ground... basically the whole Lebanese army is being deployed in Lebanon...

Why? Because Jumblatt siding with Hezbollah means the fall of Hariri and Hezbollah forming the new government.

That could lead to March 14 protests, which might bring Hezbollah response...

Could also mean that Israel-Egypt-Saudi Arabia-US... could try to invade, as the US warned Hariri yesterday if Hezbollah took over...

The feeling is that will happen by monday.

And from off the record from the Israeli army... expecting 50% chance of Hezbollah attacking Israel to unite the Lebanese people behind them... Israel said they would hit so hard Hezbollah would regret it.

Iranium - The Movie Just want you to see that. Seems like the Propaganda Machine in the US for a War with Iran is already underway...

reply to post by Shenon


Has been underway since 2005.

5:21pm Mustaqbal bloc MP Ahmed Fatfat to OTV: We will continue in nominating Hariri to head the new Cabinet. I am sure that some Democratic Gathering MPs are still on our side and they will also vote for Hariri.

Impasse.

Arab embassy requests citizens to leave Lebanon

Albalad: Qatari Embassy in Beirut requests from citizens to leave the Lebanese territory

“The upcoming parliamentary consultations [on the nomination of a new premier] will reveal the real stance of [Democratic Gathering bloc leader] MP Walid Jumblatt,” Future Movement official Mustafa Allouch said on Friday.

Threats will not stop us, March 14 youth departments say
+1

NLP: March 14 is being asked to surrender

“The March 14 alliance is being asked to surrender in return for the March 8 coalition not using [its] arms,” the National Liberal Party said in a statement issued following the Friday meeting of its higher council.

If the March 8 have the majority, why the hell don't you give up power?

Not good:

Rumours from Lebanon: Hezbollah told Jumblatt that violence would follow if he nominated Hariri for PM.

Kuwait requests citizens to leave Lebanon

Lots of people are waiting to get out of dodge. Officially because of civil war fears.

14march: 7 PSP MPs refuse to vote for Karami, so the balance has not yet tipped

PSP breaking into pieces... as predicted.

International Tribunal set February 7 as the date for a public meeting to discuss the charge sheet

Originally posted by Vitchilo
While this is going on in Israel..
PM: Israel will work to disconnect Gaza from power grid

Netanyahu told Alliot-Marie, who is scheduled to visit Gaza on Friday, that Israel would work toward “disengaging” from Gaza’s infrastructure, starting with removing the area from Israel’s water and electricity grids.

WHAT do you expect? Gaza wants no part of Israel and want to be indepedant, so there you go...
Have fun. Get your "friends" Iran and Lebanon to provide your fuel and power... Unless "Palestine" is just a political barganing tool, they should have no issue helping out.

reply to post by CanadianDream420

WHAT do you expect? Gaza wants no part of Israel and want to be indepedant, so there you go...
Have fun. Get your "friends" Iran and Lebanon to provide your fuel and power... Unless "Palestine" is just a political barganing tool, they should have no issue helping out.

Yeah but give them independence first and stop the sanctions and blockades so foreign corporations can come in and build them fuel and power.

Lebanon Military: 8 enemy planes flying over various areas

Shoot them down...

marouni: "we are expecting a plot tonight and we call on the army to interfere."

psp: 6 votes for hariri and 5 for karami

“Prime Minister Saad Hariri had his chance in the last cabinet,” Change and Reform bloc MP Hikmat Dib said on Friday.

Israel has increased flights into Lebanon

Osama Saad: Saad Hariri, lost the confidence of the Lebanese and can not accept his return

Latest number of MPs... needs 65 to have power... Hariri coalition = 66 MPs. Hezbollah coalition = 62 MPs. Because of PSP breakup, Hezbollah cannot take power legally.

If the PSP doesn't break up, Hezbollah will take power.

We won't know until they vote, at the last minute.

newtv: explosion in Bab el-Tebbaneh, no injuries

reply to post by Vitchilo

Latest number of MPs... needs 65 to have power... Hariri coalition = 66 MPs. Hezbollah coalition = 62 MPs. Because of PSP breakup, Hezbollah cannot take power legally.


newtv: explosion in Bab el-Tebbaneh, no injuries

Good news for now, I suppose?

Quite a busy newsday as it has been their "weekend"...

Thanks for all your hard work in research, and commentary on the situation, Vitchilo

Can't depend on the US media, and am having a hard time getting in touch with relatives in the surrounding on areas, so I am somewhat dependent on you! Much appreciation!