reply to post by zeddissad
In 5 years ? It is hard to say. Basically people should understand that the games market is what funded the technology push, it is why personal
computers took off so big originally and it is where a lot of money came in for the original hardware and software houses. From that perspective the
companies (or company in the pc field) that managed to lock down the market with powerful integration of software and hardware, and then made it easy
for 3rd party developers to work with them but would insist that they work ONLY with them (in the console market this happened a lot as well) led to
application driven sales of hardware. bla bla you can see the loop.
So yea of course DivX gave Microsoft a huge edge over Apple in that regard.
So we have to consider that if "serious" games are taken off PC's that the expotential growth in PC power will slow down, however the games market
whilst still a driving force of profit for the tech industry is no longer the driving force behind PCs.
So what is ?
PCs nowdays are multi-media manipulation centers. They fufill all kinds of functions, though again these functions could easily be performed on other
devices (such as the consoles which are basically modded PCs).
Google are pushing the idea of Cloud (and you can expect them to push it very heavily in the coming years) moving the idea of having "your"
operating system bound to any given physical workstation, to instead being something you call up on various devices wherever you are, which if it
takes off would mean that the home PC market will change massively.
It would not surprise me to see that people who need personal computers for powerful application software (bulding website / graphics / publishing /
accounting whatever) moving into apples court. Whilst the casual user moves over to Google and other Cloud companies that will spring up.
This is partly because with the rise of powerful personal hand held units, with rumors of Apple working on a portable permanently wireless connected
I-Tablet style device. Really I would expect everything to change very soon in what devices and operating systems we use.
If you have a high def 40-50inch tv in your living room and a ps3 (for example) you can download music, movies, tv, you can surf the internet and you
can play games. All you need is access to some word processing apps and a usb keyboard and the casual user suddenly no longer needs a PC. Furthermore
the consoles are designed with the intent that they kinda break semi-regularly, sure microsoft or sony will fix them for you and send them back, and
do it quick, but not if you modded it. Which means no illegal downloading of media (because the ps3 wont let access those channels), which means no
illicit upgrading of your machine, no unexpected stuff cropping in your hardware that may throw software off of kilt.
All of that sounds very attractive if your a third party developer looking to get paid, or a large media conglomerate looking at how to maximize your
money coming in via the internet and to replace fading revenue streams.
Cloud operating systems will work in the same way, I expect for that reason they will receive massive support from the financial backers. The
difference is these operating systems will eventually (quite a way off) be truly multi-platform.
Microsoft know this, and they are adjusting ready for it. Gates bid of total world domination has failed and now they are getting ready for round
two.
Whats round two ? Oh well you see the Nattal how it works is its actually a series of cameras, like the i-toy but several of them are used to gain
depth perception etc. Microsoft would like to have that kind of tech built into monitors so that home users of computer workstations will able to use
microsoft driven software to have a Nattal like experience for everything they do on the PC (and obviously other microsoft devices eventually). The
Nattal is the prototype for this.
Think about it, multiple cameras built into the frames of your devices (Microsoft TVs anyone ?!?). Reliable touch screen tech, dont even have to touch
the screen it can sense you near it. It can also do a lot of other things if you have a suspicious mind. Of course companies will still need to be
compliant with Microsoft if they want their software to be run properly using this new peripheral type.
They keyword for tech in this decade is going to be portable though, and portable will mean your "cyber presence". Most of this we wont see proper
signs of until the end of the decade I expect. It will take time for software houses to adjust, not much time, but the development cycle of things is
normal 1-3 years. The starting projects for these things will be coming out this year, but I would estimate 5 years before casual take up begins to be
significant with dominance happening within 10-15 (3 more development cycles).
[edit on 14-1-2010 by gYvMessanger]
[edit on 14-1-2010 by gYvMessanger]
[edit on 14-1-2010 by gYvMessanger]