10 year old UK article: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past

Originally posted by nik1halo
Easy reply:

It is well known that most of that warming is NOT due to the direct warming effect of the CO2 by itself, which is relatively weak. It is instead due to indirect effects (positive feedbacks) that amplify the small amount of direct warming from the CO2. The most important warmth-amplifying feedbacks in climate models are clouds and water vapor.

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D.
December 27, 2008 (last modified December 29, 2008)

Source

You see anyone can get evidence to back up their point of view from accredited professionals.

Yeah, an easy reply if you don't think to much about it. Roy isn't actually contradicting anything which is proposed. Did you not note I mentioned about high temps in arctic regions which influence albedo by reflecting solar energy? By reducing such snow/ice cover we will find a positive feedback. Similarly, by increasing temps via our emissions water vapour will induce more positive feedback by a very simple mechanism.

I'm not sure that helps your case.

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on this one my friend. Although I do love a good debate as much as the next man, I've had about 3 hours sleep and my brain work not much goodly today. I'm just gonna end up getting frustrated and sarcastic as hell.

Maybe on the next climate thread I'll be more alert.

Peace out \m/

Go get some sleep! Cheers.

ABE:

[edit to add]
Just noticed also that your data is a little outdated compared to mine. by at least 8 years.

One is a posted opinion on the interdweebs and t'other is a peer-reviewed study with evidence - Spencer doesn't provide data, but I don't disagree with him anyway, feedbacks are very important.

I can post a number of other more recent studies which only consolidate the Harries et al. study. If you want them, can do so later (have things to do for a little while).

[edit on 7-1-2010 by melatonin]

reply to post by nik1halo

It is well known that most of that warming is NOT due to the direct warming effect of the CO2 by itself, which is relatively weak. It is instead due to indirect effects (positive feedbacks) that amplify the small amount of direct warming from the CO2.

So if you light a fuse (CO2) which causes a bomb to go off (methane, vater vapor positive feedback), the resulting explosion is not your fault, because you didnt light the bomb directly, only the fuse? Thats just weak excuse.

the fact is, manmade CO2 can in theory cause climate change. Its all right to take certain precautious in so important causes like global climate, even if its not absolutely proven. Of course, not carbon tax or similar TPTB moneymaking frauds, but sanely limiting fossil fuels and reorienting our energetic policy to alternative sources is OK.

Even if there is no manmade GW, fossil fuels will still run out in century or two, so if we dont start promoting alternative sources now, then when? When people start freezing off due to lack of fossils? It would be already too late..

And I have also witnessed a few almost snowless winters over here in central Europe in past years, which is weird, because we had almost half a meter of snow in the past and certainly not snowless Christmass.

Two days ago on BBC Breakfast TV a female presenter posed the following question to a representative of the Met Office - "Last summer the Met Office stated that this winter would be the mildest on record - can you comment?"

His response was that the Met Office short range forecasts (24 hours and less) were extremely accurate but longer range was very difficult and subject to untested software modelling. He felt that it would be years before the short range forecasting accuracy could be replicated in long range forecasting.

What we are talking about is a range of 24 hours (extremely accurate - his words) to 180 days (totally inaccurate - my words and supported by numerous bloomers).

The presenter then asked, "Well we've had a lot of people suggesting that this weather is not consistent with the idea of global warming."

He commented, "Well we need to consider the bigger picture and the fact that we're dealing with much longer time spans." "We've got data for the last 6 years that shows that average global temperature is rising and higher than at anytime in the past." "This weather is only affecting Northern Europe and overall world global temperature is rising - global temperature increase is a real issue."

Firstly - my understanding is that the USA as far down as Florida is going through severe winter weather along with China. A report I saw today suggested that the weather system currently over the UK is because the Jet Stream has moved towards the Equator as a result of El Nino. The result - Norther hemisphere suffering winter weather whilst Mediterranean Europe is having a very mild winter.

Secondly - the theory and scientific base for Global warming is based on an unproven computer model. The difference between short term and longer term weather forecasting is based on similar computer software models with the range of extremely accurate (24 hours) - to worthless (180 days). On that basis it would suggest that climate change data (projection) for 1 year is extremely accurate but any theoretical models/conclusions over the longer period (6 years) are useless - need I say more!

reply to post by dww25


here is footage of the MET chief:

news.bbc.co.uk...

John Hirst, head of the Met Office, defends the record of the weathermen after they predicted a mild winter.

Andrew Neil asked him to justify his salary which is higher than the prime minister's.

Originally posted by dww25
Secondly - the theory and scientific base for Global warming is based on an unproven computer model.

I'm amazed that Arrhenius had a PC in 1859.

Whaddooeyenose

reply to post by Deny Arrogance


climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia

Yeah...ever hear of climategate? The CRU has less credibility than a used car salesman now.
I encountered a greenpeace volunteer in washington D.C. who said she wanted to sign us up for a monthly donation to fight global warming because, I quote "polar bears can't swim"

Human caused global warming is a platform used to gain money and power, and its supporters get more pathetic daily.

I don't know what Global Warming is, but here in the U.S. we've had one of the worst Winters in history so far...



[edit on 1/8/2010 by Brainiac]

reply to post by dww25


This is true. This isn't just an "out-of-place'' snowstorm in Europe. These harsh winter storms are happening all over the place. Here in the U.S. (Wyoming to be exact) the ground has not been fully clear of snow since late October-November. It is currently Four degrees out right now. The winter weather we have experienced thus far is consistent to weather that we typically don't see till about January-March. Not to mention that the U.S. this year reported record breaking lows all over the country for the month of July. To even further add, Wyoming has been in a drought for as long as I can remember (I am quite young.) Which has basically ended this year. Between more summer rainfall and a whole heck of a lot more snow, we've received a lot of moisture in a small period of time.

Anywho, the OP's article reminds me of Al Gore's latest thing about the Polar Ice caps being Ice-Free in the next 5 years. I feel like there are too many variables when considering Global anything. It's hard to predict things like earthquakes and volcanic eruptions because when one happens somewhere else in the world it can change everything. An earthquake happens and a very active volcano suddenly goes dormant. Likewise, the constant changing nature of the earth (and its surroundings: Namely that big yellow thing in the sky we call the Sun), I think it's hard to form any conclusion at all on Climate change other than: Yes the climate has seen changes and things are different, but who the heck knows the cause or if it is a long-term thing. As for the whole Ice Age theory, I'm quite certain the Earth isn't thrown into an Ice Age over a short period of 30-40 years with out some very drastic cosmic event (In which case We probably wouldn't be alive to even discuss this if something that big happened to make that drastic of a change.) Just my 2 cents + a bunch of extra crap probably few will even care about.

Edit to fix some minor errors.

[edit on 8-1-2010 by Dienekes]

Yep global warming IS real folks. Remember, the dust bowl? It was decades ago in the midwest...this week, the midwest was around -50(F) and blanketed in some of the roughest cold weather to date. Also, I spent my New Years and Christmas in Dallas, TX and saw the first snowy week on Christmas in recorded weather history in the area...thats like since 1877 or something around there. Also, if everyone already forgot, Italy got snow last year and people (who've never seen snow) were 'shoveling' snow with cups and plates as they had no available tools to deal with such a phenomena.

All of this is happening while our Electro-Magnetic pole races into Russia at 40 miles per year...pole shift anyone? Regardless of what may be going on, its nothing to fret about. The Earth is supposedly billions of years old (these same scientists say they KNOW that too). Scientists and the easily led public with the help of the MSM are convinced that 200 years of industrialized civilization (of which originate from only a handful of countries) have effected our globe in such a way our planet is imploding. "Naive and pompous claims", I say.

BULL#. Gore and all his cronies are fascists and blah blah blah, but the real 'entity' to blame, is the masses of civilians that sit back without a proper education or the ability or want to question whats inside of the # they're being spoon fed, and take it balls deep, day in day out, and never do a damn thing about it.

Originally posted by superdebz
IT was. up to maybe the past few years theres been hardly any snow. then 2 years ago it started snowed from march til april.
Now its just like BAM!
you gotta remember through. because of where the uk is. global warming will make it colder. as if our weather cant get any more #e as it already is

The UK was supposed to get particularly cold, only the problem is the mechanism by which that is supposed to happen - the gulf stream.

See what is completely inconvenient for the global warming/climate change people is that the gulf stream has not shifted as it is supposed to, and has not affected the UK climate, yet here we are, record lows.

reply to post by TheBandit795


news.bbc.co.uk...


Watch the video.
50 year trend in plant flowering arriving earlier and earlier, observed.
100 trend in warming, also observed.
Human emissions of CO2 is observed and observed to be increasing.

But these are "short term trends" that many of you will easily dismiss with-
"Wow, lets trend out this cold snap into dismissing Global Warming".


Awesome guys. Just awesome work.

Just awesome.

Everyone forgetting how easy it is to make it snow?

www.weathermod.com...

I got my local U105 Radio Station to talk about how easy it is to modify the weather. Pitty it was aired at 1am lol.

Its as easy...as making it snow

OMG its snowing! In winter! Oh noes! Imagine that.

The media hype it up, not once do they mention weather modification.

Everyone complains, YET here I was tonight looking out my window seeing cars slide all over the road, seeing people slip and fall; did anyone do anything about it? NO!

Ya'know what I did? With my cold, chest infection, throat infection and fatigue; I went out with a longtail shovel opened up the grit bins and gritted my entire estate! It took me an hour and I was very weak and tired. I watched everyone looking at me, as if I was not right in the head.

What was I thinking?

I was thinking that people are so damn lazy and so damn quick to complain about something but wont do anything to correct that mistake.

I can now look out my window and see the roads covering over 50 houses all gritted. My estate is now safe because of me, no child will get knocked down and killed, no car will crash on the road and not one person said "well done" and I dont care. You know why? Because it was self gratifying and I hate stupid people.

Complaining about something? Correct it!

omg the lights in my house just flickered, looks like my electricity is going to go out again

- Thankfully I am the only one in my entire estate that has his own generator

Complaining about something? Correct it!!

Dont forget about the weather modification, its all apart of bringing in the Eco-NWO. I see it, do you? (Knows that he is preaching to the choir :@@ Oh well.

Let's not forget China that is having a severe winter.

However, like the University of East Anglia, I will pick my the points around the globe that show gloabal warming like Leeming Bar, North Yorkshire, Linton On Ouse North Yorkshire and Driffield also in em. North Yorkshire to show graphically that the Earth has colled down.

In seriousness. there was an article in Sep that some claimed the sunspots had something to do with climate and our lack of sunspots may cause cooling; I wonder if they were being prophetic?is

Everyone complains, YET here I was tonight looking out my window seeing cars slide all over the road, seeing people slip and fall; did anyone do anything about it? NO!

Ya'know what I did? With my cold, chest infection, throat infection and fatigue; I went out with a longtail shovel opened up the grit bins and gritted my entire estate! It took me an hour and I was very weak and tired. I watched everyone looking at me, as if I was not right in the head.

You have grit? You're lucky! I haven't seen a drop of the stuff here in the North of England.

You are right about the complaining though, yes it's cold so I've got 4 layers on and I've walked to the shops instead of getting the car stuck in the ice and snow. Keeping on topic, scientists are not predicting the weather and 'climate change' correctly with their models, that's why I don't buy AGW.

Originally posted by DrHammondStoat

You have grit? You're lucky!

I haven't seen a drop of the stuff here in the North of England.

You are right about the complaining though, yes it's cold so I've got 4 layers on and I've walked to the shops instead of getting the car stuck in the ice and snow. Keeping on topic, scientists are not predicting the weather and 'climate change' correctly with their models, that's why I don't buy AGW.

LOL Well, we had normal grit, I just gave the last bucket of it to a kid who was trying to get some of the "new" grit from the bins. His dad couldnt get his car out. The grit I had was proper grit, this morning due to me complaining to the local residents association the grit bins were filled up. Although, the grit they filled it with looked like normal tarmac stones, gravel. It doesnt melt the ice, instead it just gives more grip for the car tyres.

I posted in another thread regarding the conditions of places like England that have no grit, like your place. I suggested that it would make logical sense for the road services to work with the government, to collect and gather sand from local beaches and use that instead of spending millions on importing grit from other countries such as Spain.

Originally posted by ElectricUniverse


Gotta remember also that the Global Warming scammers now call it "Climate Change".....perhaps it has something to do with the fact that the climate is ALWAYS changing....

Funny how this is the only little fact you keep dangling on in lieu of any real information.
If that is the best you can come up with, then you just want to belittle and skeptical for no good reason.

It was sorta changed to climate change as global warming gave people the idea that the whole planet is going to be like the Caribbean. When in fact it causes the weather to go wacky. Since most people don't understand the effects.

But the only mistake they made was thinking that changing the name was going to work, since skeptics still think that snowing in December means that there is no global warming.

Still extremely cold weather in some parts of Europe today. In the last week of May.

reply to post by TheBandit795


Yeah, we were supposed to be heading into winter too.

The first four months of 2013 have seen average national daily maximum temperatures reach 1.34 degrees above the average for 1961-1990, shy only of the blisteringly hot start to 2005, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

Read more: www.smh.com.au...