Volcano watch 2010

edit for double post..... blames the red wine!!

[edit on 1/5/10 by logicalview]

reply to post by logicalview

worst plausible case

That is a licence to incite fear if I ever saw one! My honest answer has to be I don't know because you cannot second guess Mother Nature. Anything could happen, or nothing.

It is suggested that Katla erupts within 2 years of Eyjafjoll, and while that has been the case in the past, it does not mean that it will continue to be the case in the future.

In recent history Hekla has erupted around once a decade, and on that timing should theoretically be due very soon.

The Grimsvötn volcano has had an eruption frequency during past centuries close to one eruption per decade. The last eruption occurred in 1983 so is that overdue??. Next to Grimsvötn is Bardarbunga, and under the same ice sheet is Eskjufjoll (I think that is what it is called). This has been flagged as a probable eruption within a year or so. There is much quake activity in this area, and this fissure complex extends and forms a part of the system that produced Laki in 1783. I note that recently there has been quite a bit of activity around Askja as well.

In my honest opinion, but don't hold me to it, I think that Hekla, Katla and at least one of the Vatnajokull volcanoes (Grims,Barda, Eskju) will erupt in the next two years. There is no cause for alarm there, unless these prove to be large eruptions, and there are some who say that Laki is due.

The current eruption has believe it or not been classified ans VEI4 which is around 0.1 cubic kilometres of tephra (ash). The VEI index, like the Richter scale, is logarithmic. VEI 4 is 0.1 cu km, VEI 5 is 1 cu km, VEI 6 is 10 cu km etc

The real concern would be if all them decided to erupt at the same time!

Whilst I personally think that Iceland is underestimated (it does not have super-volcano status) it is a fact that generally fissure eruptions are calmer than the strombolian etc types - more akin to Hawaiian. Large amounts of material can be ejected, but they tend not to be explosively. Iceland is classified as a LIP (Large Igneous Province). As I have mentioned before Iceland has the potential to produce gigantic basaltic flows even to the size of the Deccan and Siberian traps. Now this is where we arrive at extinction events. This is because these types of eruptions go on for millennia, and even millions of years and put out vast amounts of magma - in the order of millions of cubic miles. The Wikipedia article on LIPs is also a good read. So yes Iceland has that potential.

Back to more normal realms! Erupting one at a time may cause more problems for air travellers, and a possible minor heath hazard in the UK, the Nordic countries. Two could be very difficult, and as is perfectly possible, having three erupting at the same time could bring major health hazards to the aforementioned areas, and possibly the grounding of air traffic for a substantial length of time BUT all of that depends on the weather systems.

There have been eruptions in Iceland before, and before the age of instant panic information, and we were none the wiser. I can remember the Surtsey Island being in the papers when that formed but we had no ill effects from it.

That probably did not answer your question, but I hope you at least gained something from it.

[edit on 1/5/2010 by PuterMan]

reply to post by PuterMan


Great stuff puterman. (even more impressed you can be so clear at what must be 4am in the UK!)

[edit on 1-5-2010 by MoorfNZ]

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/dee0650abf56.jpg[/atsimg]

reply to post by berkeleygal


I just woke up and I saw this thing too (after the NY failed attack).
Is that from the other volcano?? Or just other holes?

[edit on 2/5/10 by sandri_90]

reply to post by sandri_90


more steam vents are opening up

lots of discussion on it at the other ejya volcano thread
come on over

reply to post by berkeleygal


Here's news clip :

Kamchatka: Bezymianny Volcano goes on alert status (May 1, 2010)

KAMCHATKA - "Activity of the volcano continues and its aerosol plumes could affect low-flying aircraft. Strong volcanic activity of Klyuchevskoy volcano obscured seismic data of Bezymianny last week. Moderate fumarolic activity of the volcano was observed on April 27-28, clouds obscured the volcano in the other days of week. According to satellite data, a weak thermal anomaly over the lava dome was registering all week. Volcano is exhibiting signs of elevated unrest above known background level." -Russian Volcano Observatory

If Bezymianny activity intensifies; it will make it the 4th volcano active on the Kamchatka Peninsula.

mclinking

reply to post by mclinking


There's just been a 5.4 quake at the Kamchatka Peninsula, too....

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by logicalview

That probably did not answer your question, but I hope you at least gained something from it.

On the contrary friend! An excellent and informative response with minimal speculation.

Stars!

[edit on 2/5/10 by logicalview]

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/82d8324bc60b.jpg[/atsimg]

Webcam capture of Eyjafjallajökull erupting on May 2, 2010. You can see the steam plume on the middle flanks of the volcano - this is likely a lava flow coming from the summit vents.

A brief update on activity at Eyjafjallajökull:

Overnight, the lava flows from Eyjafjallajökull could be seen in the crater of the ice cap - some of the images posted by Eruptions readers are simply stunning. You can clearly see the red glow of the strombolian eruptions at the vent, and the glow of the lava flows as they had down the slope of the volcano. This has brought a lot of new melting to the snow/glacier on the volcano, and the evidence of that can be seen in the flooding near the volcano. Recent reports have indicated that the harmonic tremor at the volcano has increased today (icelandic - english translation) as well (usually a signal that accompanies magma movement underground). However, there are so far no suggestions that the nature of the eruption has changed over the last eight days. This morning, you can definitely see the evidence of the lava flows working their way downhill with a large steam plume on the flanks of Eyjafjallajökull (see webcam image above).


source

scienceblogs.com...

volcanism.wordpress.com...
niffty site

Is the ash cloud chaos back? Scotland and Ireland shut down airspace amid new safety fears

www.dailymail.co.uk...


sure wish the clouds would go away

Yellowstone got active again....www.quake.utah.edu...

An interesting comment re Eyjafjollajokull.

About the GPS data. The THEY GPS station is showing interesting behaviour. The North-South is deflating like normal. But there is a huge inflation happening on the East-West (they way the Eyjafjallajökull volcano actually lies) happening. It moved 5mm in ~24 hours or so. Given the early lead up to this eruption, it has become clear that the movement to the East-West is more important then the movement to north-south it seems.

But the North-South has it's role to play in this, that is clear already and has from the start. But the East-West movement appears to be the driving force behind this eruption for some reasons that I cannot explain. Today it just had a big inflation pulse. What happens next is a good guess. But I don't think it is anything good.

Posted by: Jón Frímann | May 5, 2010 4:27 AM

Source: Eruptions!

If Jón Frimann ( ) can't explain this I wonder who can. It is a little worrying when the residents do not know what is going on. I don't need to remind you of course that E-W is the line leading to Katla in the East.

I do note the sudden massive drop in tremor intensity, which sees to have been accompanied by the little flurry of earthquakes. Presumably that has relieved some of the pressure. I think t is a little ominous when someone like Jón says "But I don't think it is anything good."

[edit on 5/5/2010 by PuterMan]

reply to post by PuterMan


Yes, a few people startled with Jon's observations there. That guy's a legend.

So, if you had to hazard a guess... he is now perhaps worried about a Katla connection/channel ?

reply to post by PuterMan


In addition, Puterman, the East/West concerns also brought to mind a paper I found a while back.

Some interesting reading here for those that want to better understand the relationship between Katla and Eyja. Some great maps and data.

There is also a great schematic cross-section from west to east across the Eyja and Katla volcanoes.

Apologies if it's been posted before.

www2.norvol.hi.is...

reply to post by MoorfNZ

So, if you had to hazard a guess... he is now perhaps worried about a Katla connection/channel ?

Seems that way to me. I don't think I am liking the undertones in the conversations there.

Link ? Does not seem to be working.

I note Henrik from Sweden commented. Laki - joshing - go read however.

He seems to be another knowledgeable fellow.

[edit on 5/5/2010 by PuterMan]

Apologies - link to paper above didn't work - try this:

www2.norvol.hi.is...

Very interesting reading in light of the Katla speculations.

Aha - now I know which commenter you are on there I'm pretty easy to spot LOL