Probability of NUCLEAR WAR at least 10%!!! (Happy New Year)

Nothing like a little doom & gloom to ring in the New Year!

According to Prof. Martin Hellman, Stanford -

Physorg.com/M Hellman Article

What are the chances of a nuclear world war? What is the risk of a nuclear attack on United States soil? The risk of a child born today suffering an early death due to nuclear war is at least 10 percent,

Hellman gives another analogy: “The risk that each one of us dies as a result of failed deterrence is thousands of times greater than the risk you would bear if a nuclear power plant were built right next to your home.” Determining such a risk seems a little like predicting the future, but Hellman is confident about his numbers. He justifies his probability by breaking down a catastrophe into a sequence of smaller failures, incorporating expert opinions, examining history and estimating within a range of numbers.

Based on the outcomes of these events, Hellman estimated these numbers: • Rate of initiating events: six percent per year • Probability that an initiating event leads to a major crisis: 33 percent • Probability that a major crisis leads to the use of a nuclear weapon: 10 to 50 percent The third probability is hardest to estimate because we have yet to drop a bomb on Russia (or vice versa). Hellman used the 10 to 50 percent range based on studying what transpired in the Cuban Missile Crisis and on statements by the participants. People can make irrational decisions when under the gun, he explained. Once a major crisis erupts, it becomes a question of who will back down first; like a game of nuclear chicken, he said.

**Guess I wasn't done when I said I was ** - I Am Done.

Will Humans really ever change?

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/0af186a316bf.jpg[/atsimg]

Happy New Year's?

Signals is that you looking at the earth?

Those facts are in fact sad.

That's why Bill Maher and many others are not comfortable with fundies in office; with having their trigger happy fingers on those nuke buttons.

Your post put me in the the mind of checking the "Doomsday Clock". For those not aware, this symbolic clock maintained by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, measures how close humanity is to total obliteration. While first focused on the use of nuclear weapons, it now also takes into account Climate Change and other modern day threats to civilization. www.thebulletin.org...

As near as I can tell, the last change was made in 2007 to 5 minutes to Midnight. Midnight being the end of everything, of course. I can't help but wonder if they will be moving the time even closer, with all the recent world events that seem to point to war in a highly volatile region with many players in possession of nuclear weapons.

Happy new year's eve, everyone!!!

Well looks We're all going to die horrible horrible deaths from nuclear warfare

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!!!!



[edit on 31-12-2009 by Rising Against]

Well hell get it over with and do it already..

We have been hearing about these nukes since before 9/11/01.. Where tf are they for real..

People talk so much hoopla... stupid stupid stupid people....

Remember though, If a nuke does go off, it will be some bearded dude in a cave with a laptop computer coordinating it exact as is and over powers to trillions we spend on defense in the US.

So.. Wanna buy some land in the sky while I am at it.. I have alot to sell, only problem is, I cant tell you where it is at any given monment because it moves with the clouds.. If you buy today, I can give you timeshare on URanus..

Im probably a tad older than most here on the site.

I remember growing up in the COLD WAR era.


Back then they used to use a term NUCLEAR CLOCK

I remember hearing at the height of the Cold War , the Clock was at

11:59

12:00 , means Bombs are in the Air

This 10% does not worry me

hmmm... i would have thought it to be closer to the big bang time... well good i can still get some additional things added into the underground shelter....