78 tremors recorded around Mayon

According to the Global Volcanism Program of the Smithsonian Institution, the most powerful eruption of Mayon Volcano in 1814 was VEI 4, so probably major at a local level but not enough to have more global effects.

www.volcano.si.edu...

The 1991 eruption of Pinatubo volcano was VEI 6, so 100 times larger.

en.wikipedia.org...

I have to admit, though, that I don't know if the imminent new eruption of Mayon could be larger than its largest previous one.

Originally posted by Project2501
Using Start and End Dates of 2009-12-14 through 2009-12-15 & such you will see the vortex map of 19.5 top perfectly Image type EIT 284 shows a prime example of this research.

This was the cause of the Philippines Volcano becoming active.

1035 — is growing rapidly and is seven times wider than Earth. Also take note of the recent weather in the north east of the united states as well

Mayon was put on watch early in December, while sunspots and CME's affect the magnetosphere and atmosphere of Earth it is unlikely that they affect volcanoes, if that were the case many more would be affected, not just Mayon.

Major Philippines eruption likely 'within days'

Mon Dec 21 2009 09:09:44

Major Philippines eruption likely 'within days' The most active volcano in the Philippines could have a major eruption within days.

Officials have detected a drastic surge in earthquakes and report hearing eerie rumbling sounds in the foothills surrounding Mount Mayon.

Tens of thousands of villagers have already been evacuated from a five-mile exclusion zone.

Scientists have raised the alert level to four after 453 volcanic earthquakes were detected in a five-hour span.

Level four means that a hazardous eruption is possible within days. Level five means a major eruption is in progress.

source

itn.co.uk...

Originally posted by prof-rabbit

Originally posted by Project2501
Using Start and End Dates of 2009-12-14 through 2009-12-15 & such you will see the vortex map of 19.5 top perfectly Image type EIT 284 shows a prime example of this research.

This was the cause of the Philippines Volcano becoming active.

1035 — is growing rapidly and is seven times wider than Earth. Also take note of the recent weather in the north east of the united states as well

Mayon was put on watch early in December, while sunspots and CME's affect the magnetosphere and atmosphere of Earth it is unlikely that they affect volcanoes, if that were the case many more would be affected, not just Mayon.

You might take notice of the direction of the sun, & the solar wind drift & earthly conditions such as magnetic pulse make a difference to as where the activity will hit.

"Volcanic Eruptions Interfere with the Effect of Sunspots on Global Climate" Published by NASA June 11th, 2002

Also here's a primer to help you get started I believe you may need it "How Sunspots Work" Seeing as you was without the previous read above. ty

~"All energy comes from the sun"~

[edit on 21-12-2009 by Project2501]

Originally posted by Project2501
You might take notice of the direction of the sun, & the solar wind drift & earthly conditions such as magnetic pulse make a difference to as where the activity will hit.

"Volcanic Eruptions Interfere with the Effect of Sunspots on Global Climate" Published by NASA June 11th, 2002

You should read before quoting.

from your page.

The research, published in a paper in the May 15 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, provides striking evidence that sunspots -- blemishes on the sun's surface indicating strong solar activity -- do influence global climate change, but that explosive volcanic eruptions on Earth can completely reverse those influences.

It is the first time that volcanic eruptions have been identified as the atmospheric event responsible for the sudden and baffling reversals that scientists have seen in correlations between sunspots and climate.

Originally posted by Project2501
Also here's a primer to help you get started I believe you may need it

"How Sunspots Work" Seeing as you was without the previous read above. ty

~"All energy comes from the sun"~

[edit on 21-12-2009 by Project2501]

Perhaps when your education level reaches mine you can make informed statements, however I will be quite dead by then.



[edit on 22-12-2009 by prof-rabbit]

Mayon is now at level four.

quote
Top News
Written by PNA & C. Mocon
Tuesday, 22 December 2009 22:21

THE Philippine Institute on Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) is mulling over raising the highest possible alert status on Mount Mayon in Legazpi, Albay, after observing a trend of increasing volcanic activity.

Alert Level 5 appears probable in the next few days if they observe “surface manifestations” that indicate imminent eruption, Jimmy Sincioco, spokesman of Phivolcs, said.

“But right now, there are still no surface manifestations, like voluminous eruption columns, that could cause hazardous pyroclastic flows and perceptible earthquakes,” he said.

He said the present pyroclastic flows can only be considered as secondary because they originate from the piles of lava earlier spewed out by the world-renowned volcano.

When loud explosions are heard and when earthquakes near Mount Mayon become actually felt by residents in Legazpi City, Sincioco said that would be the right time to raise Alert Level 5.

Since Sunday, seismic instruments of Phivolcs recorded activities that remain “elevated in number and size” with a total of 1,266 volcanic earthquakes at maximum deflection after a 24-hour observation period.
end quote

source
businessmirror.com.ph...

Originally posted by Project2501
You might take notice of the direction of the sun, & the solar wind drift & earthly conditions such as magnetic pulse make a difference to as where the activity will hit.

"Volcanic Eruptions Interfere with the Effect of Sunspots on Global Climate" Published by NASA June 11th, 2002

Originally posted by prof-rabbit
You should read before quoting.

from your page.

The research, published in a paper in the May 15 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, provides striking evidence that sunspots -- blemishes on the sun's surface indicating strong solar activity -- do influence global climate change, but that explosive volcanic eruptions on Earth can completely reverse those influences.

It is the first time that volcanic eruptions have been identified as the atmospheric event responsible for the sudden and baffling reversals that scientists have seen in correlations between sunspots and climate.

This is not the first time that volcanic eruptions have been identified as having the ability to have dramatic crowd pleasing abilities. Of course when plumes of smoke & ash crowd the upper levels of the stratosphere, It will provide a shielding event against the sun. And you reinforced that article for both sides of the road there old chap! So in effect once a "plinian eruption" has happened yes certain sunspots influences can in fact be deflected. But not until a plinian eruption has actually happened & that is the magnitude of the truth.

Originally posted by Project2501
Also here's a primer to help you get started I believe you may need it

"How Sunspots Work" Seeing as you was without the previous read above. ty

~"All energy comes from the sun"~

[edit on 21-12-2009 by Project2501]

Perhaps when your education level reaches mine you can make informed statements, however I will be quite dead by then.

[edit on 22-12-2009 by prof-rabbit]

Could you possibly explain this quote a bite more, I'm not following your dodgy logic behind it.

You stated:

Originally posted by Project2501

Originally posted by Project2501
Using Start and End Dates of 2009-12-14 through 2009-12-15 & such you will see the vortex map of 19.5 top perfectly Image type EIT 284 shows a prime example of this research.

This was the cause of the Philippines Volcano becoming active.

your page quotes:
It is the first time that volcanic eruptions have been identified as the atmospheric event responsible for the sudden and baffling reversals that scientists have seen in correlations between sunspots and climate.
end quote

Nowhere does the page suggest sunspots as a cause of volcanic eruptions.

The concept of sunspots causing volcanic eruptions is flawed, there are more than 22 highly active volcanoes in the area and hundreds of lesser volcanoes, only one of which is currently erupting.

2009 has been a very quiet period for the sun with little activity, yet volcanoes continue to erupt, you can check at the Earth Observatory page here.

earthobservatory.nasa.gov...

Ergo. sunspots do not cause volcanic avtivity.

quote
Intense seismic activity is being recorded as Mayon becomes more unstable. Almost all of the 47-thousand people living in the danger zone have been evacuated to emergency shelters.

Ash columns were seen rising during a break in the clouds above the volcano. Experts recorded more than 12-hundred quakes in a period of 24 hours -- down from nearly two-thousand the previous day.

A scientist says though there were fewer quakes, they were larger.
end quote

source with local video
english.cctv.com...

More news as the volcano eruption continues.

quote
Mounting activity inside Mayon volcano prompted nearly 47,000 nearby residents in the central Philippines to flee into emergency shelters.

Flows of molten lava have poured three miles down the cylindrical mountain’s slopes, burning coconut trees and other crops in their paths.

Lava fountains reaching 650 feet in height were observed spewing from the volcano's crater several times.

Officials, aided by the military, have imposed a five-mile exclusion zone around Mayon.
source www.earthweek.com...

Image montage here.
www.torontosun.com...

It is odd that this time of year, in this region, nature shows just what she can do. vis. boxing day tsunami etc.

Just an oddity.

quote
"In a yet another frightening display of its power, Mayon boomed 124 times over a 24-hour period, while belching out ash columns towering 2 kilometers over its summit, higher than its previous ejections.
end quote
source
newsinfo.inquirer.net...

The event could be larger than expected, likely to peak in 48 hours.

Still considered the most substantial pre-eruption since the 1700's.

quote
The world-famous Mount Mayon in Legazpi City glowed beautifully once again when lava fountained at its crater four times late Wednesday night, seemingly putting up a good show as a gift to tourists and residents of Albay this Christmas Day.
source

www.mb.com.ph...

Let us hope Mayon does ease off, however it is looking more like an eruption is in the offing. vis.

Lull before the storm; experts fear ‘Big Bang'
By AARON B. RECUENCO
December 26, 2009, 6:48pm

LEGAZPI CITY – Volcanologists closely monitoring the activities of Mayon Volcano are wary of the calm before the storm.

With past eruption records in mind, volcanologists here are becoming more fidgety with the sudden lull of Mayon Volcano following its awesome two-day display of fireworks, saying it could serve as a prelude to the anticipated big bang.

Resident volcanologist Ed Laguerta said they are relying on the previous eruption records of Mount Mayon in doing away with any recommendation for the more than 47,000 evacuees to return home.

source here.

www.mb.com.ph...

quote
Volcanologists have raised alert levels around the Philippines' most active volcano, warning of a possible eruption at any time.

Experts said on Sunday that Mayon volcano in Albay province continues to exhibit a high level of activity, with at least 33 ash explosions and over 400 earthquakes in the past 24 hours.

They noted that the apparent slowing down of activity compared to the past days could be "calm before the storm."
end quote
source
www.presstv.ir...

And
quote
Sincioco said Mayon remains inflated despite having spilled about 20 million cubic meters of lava over the last two weeks.

"It means that lava continued to build up inside and the lava that was being released is being replaced by magma coming from beneath the volcano," said Sincioco.

"We are closely monitoring the current activities of Mayon then compared it to its past characteristics. It might be similar to 1984 explosive eruption wherein it was preceded by four lull days," he added.
end quote
source
www.malaya.com.ph...

That would put it close to New Years day, it is unlikely at this point for the volcano to simply calm down, the question is just what size the eruption will be.

With 2 Domes nearly Capping the peak, inflation and a eruption thats a few days overdue from what the Volcanologists were predicting from previous known eruptions (given the Harmonic Tremor Seismograph recordings), I think its safe to say that when Mayon finally pops it'll be quite a biggie, not catastrophic, but large enough to be regionally noticeable.

Here's to hoping no lives are lost and that the eruption is as mild as can be!

I'm guessing it is going to pop soon.
People need to start looking for videos of UFOs flying around the mountain.

reply to post by ROBL240

Could well be quite a big one, yes. One thing to keep an eye on is the reports of a drop in the output of sulfur dioxide. (Increasing SO2 levels are indicative of rising magma.) A few days ago its SO2 output was estimated at over 6,000 tonnes/day, but in the report for Dec 24 it had dropped to a little over 2700 tonnes/day. (Refer to a report from SVE Volcano news with data from PHIVOLCS here. Scroll down about 2/3 of the way down the page to the heading "PHILIPPINES - Mayon Volcano".) I'd like to check more data from PHIVOLCS' own site but I cannot get into it. I expect their servers are overloaded and may have gone down.

To the point about a decrease in SO2 output: this could indicate a blockage and hence a major buildup of pressure, just as happened with Mt Pinatubo. Also, in such a case, previous seismological readings might not be the best indicators for predicting exactly when it will blow: with Pinatubo, the SO2 levels began dropping off around the end of May (1991) but the major explosive event didn't occur until late August of that year.

True, Pinatubo is not Mayon but I feel it's not totally unreasonable to look for comparative points in their behaviour.

The best outcome with the present state of affairs would be for the volcano to erupt sooner rather than later. As there are reports of apparent doming and inflation then it's truly a matter for concern, because unless the pressure is released soon then the volcano could literally blow its top and leave a substantial caldera.

Seeing as there are many people within this region who could be affected in such a scenario, it's not something we want to see. Yes, it's unlikely it would reach Pinatubo's 1991 VEI of 6, but it might be powerful enough to cause disruption outside of the relatively small area that has been evacuated.

And to Prof-rabbit: star and flag for your OP!. Thank you!

Mike

[edit on 27/12/09 by JustMike]

quote
Written by James Mendoza / Researcher
Monday, 28 December 2009 21:18
MAYON Volcano has continued its “intense level of unrest” as renewed ash explosions and a rise in sulfur-dioxide emissions suggested magma’s uninterrupted rise toward the surface.

This has led government scientists to warn that, while a Mayon eruption would not be as powerful as Mount Pinatubo in 1991, it would nonetheless be dangerous for a considerable radius.

Authorities warned evacuees against returning to their homes, as many had been lulled by the seeming “calm” of the volcano in recent days and the fact that a Christmas Day eruption, as feared, did not materialize.
end quote
source
businessmirror.com.ph...

The longer we wait the more powerful the initial eruption will be, there is a lot of comparisons to Pinatubo at present, I suspect much is being done to allay fears as anything else.

Everyone seems to want a ring-side as well, vis.

quote
By AARON B. RECUENCO
December 28, 2009, 5:59pm

LEGAZPI CITY — Air Force and disaster officials here have declared the area around Mount Mayon a nofly zone after they were flooded with requests from local and foreign tourists for aerial sorties to take a look and document the rumbling volcano from above.
end quote
source
www.mb.com.ph...

Yes, there were even reports of foreign tourists going on guided tours to view the lava dome! viz:

Foreign tourists ignore Mayon warnings

By Rey M. Nasol
Inquirer Southern Luzon
First Posted 16:28:00 12/28/2009

Filed Under: Mayon, Disasters & Accidents, Disasters (general), Tourism, Local authorities

LEGAZPI CITY, Philippines—The Joint Task Force Mayon, composed of the Philippine Army and the Philippine National Police, sounded an alarm on the possible breach of the zero-casualty goal of Albay province because of reports of foreigners ignoring the danger warnings on Mayon volcano.

.... [JTFM spokesman Capt. Razaleigh G. Bansawan] said teams of soldiers rushed to the vicinity of barangays Bonga and Mabinit gullies to respond to a reported presence of foreigners, who were guided by local tourist guides in the area, and conducting sightseeing of Mayon's lava dome.

Source (with further details available).

The stupidity of some people just defies belief. Or perhaps it's just Darwinian selection at its finest... If I happened to be on vacation in the region I wouldn't want to be within 20 km of that place, but here we have tourists taking valuable resources away from caring for the essential needs of locals, just because of their selfish, thoughtless and frankly idiotic desires to go and have a closer look at a volcano that's READY to EXPLODE!

Anyway, I have a report from PHIVOLCS, who seem to have got their servers up and running again (hats off to them!):

Mayon Volcano Bulletin 15 PDF Print E-mail

28 December 2009

7:00 AM

For the past 24 hours, Mayon Volcano’s (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E) intense level of unrest persisted. Seven ash explosions were observed during times of good visibility. The explosions produced dirty white to light gray ash columns that rose to a maximum height of about 2000 meters above the summit before drifting towards the southwest.

A total of 44 volcanic earthquakes and 137 rock fall events related to the detachment of lava fragments at the volcano’s upper slopes was detected by the seismic network. Red hot lava continuously flowed down along the Bonga-Buyuan, Miisi and Lidong gullies. Intermittent rolling of incandescent lava fragments were also observed. Yesterday’s measurement of sulfur dioxide emission rate increased to 4,329 tonnes per day (t/d) from the previous 2,304 t/d.

Here is the source, which contains further details.

It's actually not such a bad thing to see the SO2 output levels trending up again. Much better to see a few thousand tons more (of gas) released each day than thousands less. At least it helps from the point of view of reducing the violence of an eventual explosive eruption.