GOLD is due for about a 30% +/- CORRECTION, let me convince you in this thread

reply to post by GreenBicMan


I don't have access to the data for individual institutions. They're aggregated together in the reports, but when there's just two or three banks people like Butler draw the inference that JPM is among them.

Mathematically, x-x=0, so if you're long in one market and short in another by the same amount, then you don't lose or gain any money because what you win in one market, you lose in the other.

That's not a way to make a profit. The gold and silver price suppression scheme isn't alleged to be about making a profit for the banks that do the suppression. It's allegedly about removing the "barometer" that gives people clues about the health of the dollar, and makes it easier to prop up the value of the dollar. Just like Volcker lamented that they should have suppressed the price of gold in the 1970's but didn't, the allegation is that today they're not being negligent in that regard.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


"The reason this is the case (why you will lose) is because EVERYONE HAS THE SAME EDGE. Meaning the more participants in the same marketplace all going off the same useable data = less and less opportunity for equal weighted participants.

Just think about it for a few minutes and tell me if that does not make sense."

I agree, it makes perfect sense. Butler isn't using the COT report to guess whether the price will go up or down. He's using it to figure out how concentrated the short position is.

Originally posted by monetaryprotest
reply to post by GreenBicMan

 

I don't have access to the data for individual institutions. They're aggregated together in the reports, but when there's just two or three banks people like Butler draw the inference that JPM is among them.

Mathematically, x-x=0, so if you're long in one market and short in another by the same amount, then you don't lose or gain any money because what you win in one market, you lose in the other.

That's not a way to make a profit. The gold and silver price suppression scheme isn't alleged to be about making a profit for the banks that do the suppression. It's allegedly about removing the "barometer" that gives people clues about the health of the dollar, and makes it easier to prop up the value of the dollar. Just like Volcker lamented that they should have suppressed the price of gold in the 1970's but didn't, the allegation is that today they're not being negligent in that regard.

I don't have access to the data for individual institutions. They're aggregated together in the reports, but when there's just two or three banks people like Butler draw the inference that JPM is among them.

-- Exactly, no offense, but this is totally hearsay --

Mathematically, x-x=0, so if you're long in one market and short in another by the same amount, then you don't lose or gain any money because what you win in one market, you lose in the other.

That's not a way to make a profit. The gold and silver price suppression scheme isn't alleged to be about making a profit for the banks that do the suppression. It's allegedly about removing the "barometer" that gives people clues about the health of the dollar, and makes it easier to prop up the value of the dollar. Just like Volcker lamented that they should have suppressed the price of gold in the 1970's but didn't, the allegation is that today they're not being negligent in that regard

-- OK, now this is making more sense, but let me tell you why you are wrong. What would be the most EFFICIENT way of masking dollar strength or weakness? It would be a central bank UNLOADING on other currencies, and DEFINITELY NOT trying to insinuate this "mask" by showing relative strength or weakness in metals. Again, doesn't make sense.

This is proved time and time again with CENTRAL BANKING INTRUSIONS into spot FX Markets. Take a look at what the Swiss have been doing lately. They do not "comment" but it is obvious. That is the way to either devalue or float a currency against another, or at least the easiest most efficient way. --

Originally posted by monetaryprotest
reply to post by GreenBicMan

 

"The reason this is the case (why you will lose) is because EVERYONE HAS THE SAME EDGE. Meaning the more participants in the same marketplace all going off the same useable data = less and less opportunity for equal weighted participants.

Just think about it for a few minutes and tell me if that does not make sense."

I agree, it makes perfect sense. Butler isn't using the COT report to guess whether the price will go up or down. He's using it to figure out how concentrated the short position is.

But again he can't know for sure with these reports. He is only merely guessing and then giving you his opinion. How would he know? Maybe JPM isn't in Silver at all? It would be impossible to tell bc they don't list individual institutional ownership.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan

Originally posted by monetaryprotest
reply to post by GreenBicMan

 

"The reason this is the case (why you will lose) is because EVERYONE HAS THE SAME EDGE. Meaning the more participants in the same marketplace all going off the same useable data = less and less opportunity for equal weighted participants.

Just think about it for a few minutes and tell me if that does not make sense."

I agree, it makes perfect sense. Butler isn't using the COT report to guess whether the price will go up or down. He's using it to figure out how concentrated the short position is.

But again he can't know for sure with these reports. He is only merely guessing and then giving you his opinion. How would he know? Maybe JPM isn't in Silver at all? It would be impossible to tell bc they don't list individual institutional ownership.

True; I don't care to spend the time reading through all the articles to find out why he thinks its JPM and not somebody else. They do reveal that the number of banks involved is less than four because they don't show the number when it's less than four, and they don't show the number. The people at the CFTC doing the investigation should have access to the information.

reply to post by monetaryprotest


Yes, they def. should have access.

Will they do anything? Pfft... we both agree there. CFTC is a sham of an organization, totally agree.

I just have yet to PERSONALLY see anything that makes me raise an eyebrow. Remember, these players throw around sums of money that most likely we will never lay claim to in our lives in summation.

So, that is totally cool if that is your opinion.

But my opinion is that I do not agree until I see something more tangible. I think I have also laid out clearly why I do indeed think this is the case. Thanks for your contributions.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by GreenBicMan

 

I don't have access to the data for individual institutions. They're aggregated together in the reports, but when there's just two or three banks people like Butler draw the inference that JPM is among them.

-- Exactly, no offense, but this is totally hearsay --

True, but hearsay is actually real information. Your knowledge that Paris is the capital of France is just hearsay. Hearsay is objected to in a courtroom because you can call the original sayer as a witness and get the information first hand instead of second hand. When you can't do that, objecting to hearsay doesn't make nearly as much sense.

...It's allegedly about removing the "barometer" that gives people clues about the health of the dollar, and makes it easier to prop up the value of the dollar.

-- OK, now this is making more sense, but let me tell you why you are wrong. What would be the most EFFICIENT way of masking dollar strength or weakness? It would be a central bank UNLOADING on other currencies, and DEFINITELY NOT trying to insinuate this "mask" by showing relative strength or weakness in metals. Again, doesn't make sense.

This is proved time and time again with CENTRAL BANKING INTRUSIONS into spot FX Markets. Take a look at what the Swiss have been doing lately. They do not "comment" but it is obvious. That is the way to either devalue or float a currency against another, or at least the easiest most efficient way. --

Well there are two conflicting views of gold. The gold bugs point out that central banks, governments, the IMF and so on keep gold reserves and that possession of gold is of military or strategic importance because fiat currencies can collapse and gold is what gives them credibility and so on. The other view is that gold is just a commodity like any other.

The government propping up the dollar by manipulating gold really only makes sense from the gold bugs' point of view. If you think of gold as just like beans or wood, then, yes, as you point out, it doesn't make sense.

[edit on 12-4-2010 by monetaryprotest]

reply to post by monetaryprotest


Yeah, it really doesn't. Like I said it would be most efficient for central banks to outlandishly divvy themselves in foreign currency.

The FED only operates in my estimate in the most efficient way with the least amount of risk..

Taking on these supposed risk profiles does not fit a central bank IMO.

Again, thank you for the good conversation.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


And thank you. It's been a pleasure.

Interesting Chart Here about the dollar vs. gold breakdown that could potentially be occurring.

It is anyone's guess as to how this plays out if it indeed does keep occurring. As I have noticed in another thread about the relationship of Baltic Dry Index vs. commodities especially Copper.

This could be mostly due to Eurozone breakdown vs. dollar as well - so too early to tell what exactly is happening currently, but should be interesting either way. Or at least interesting to me

JC buy signal...typically the Kiss-o-Death

Cramer: Six Reasons to Buy Gold Right Now

So maybe we'll see the reasonable pullback I've been praying for afterall.

And this ?

Sears and Kmart to offer cash-for-gold service

What's the world coming to GBM ?

reply to post by OBE1


Saw that too.

Made me worried haha.

reply to post by GreenBicMan

Which one GBM ?

The Cramer KOD, or struggling US retail chains brokering pawn shoppery ?

reply to post by OBE1


haha

Well the "Hammer" commercials bothered me way back when gold was just breaking 1150 or so..

I sold my personal scrap when it hit the all time high, and some too because of the "retail" hype.

But the charts have sold me.. IMO this isn't over yet. Unfortunately, sometimes the best formations can turn over as well. So we will see.

** But I meant Cramer this evening

[edit on 17-5-2010 by GreenBicMan]

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
Well the "Hammer" commercials bothered me way back when gold was just breaking 1150 or so..

Yeah, those Cash For Gold commercials make my skin crawl. Some folks would mistakenly interpret the Sears & Kmart activity as evidence of a bubble, not realizing that buyers create bubbles, not sellers. The additional supply from distressed scrap sales is actually price negative. Hopefully the vultures will drain that market soon and crawl back under a rock.

Well I guess you could say on the other hand every time then you see an ETRADE commerical you should be weary because it attracts retail.

I think those cash-4-bling people just saw a good opp. coming and took advantage of it. Or who knows..

The linear regression model that was the OP was never broken yet actually, so there is still time for that model to hold strong. But gold can keep climbing at a

reply to post by OBE1


We need to break this 1230 channel we are in

I thought we were going to push through it when DAX basically turned into a state ran market.

Breaking 1230 channel = 1300 IMO

If you take the length of this channel and add it to the top side of the formation you get about 60-80 points just measuring with my eyes

finviz.com...




[edit on 18-5-2010 by GreenBicMan]

GreenbicMan, does your prediciton for gold to drop 30% apply to silver as well? If so, I'm going to take your advice and sell half of my silver tomorrow and should make a 100% profit from when I bought last November 2008.

reply to post by Alchemst7


No, if you read back a page I lifted my short and went long at 1150 in gold

I don't dare comment on Silver with all this speculation etc.

All I have to say is be careful when JP and Friends can lock you limit up or down anytime they want.

And they can.

Look at the lumber market for some real interesting information.

Im not saying that will happen.. but from what I am reading lately Silver sounds a tad bit shady..

Are you holding futures contracts in silver? You must be ballin' - In that case perhaps you should be giving me advice haha

*** EDIT - I PROVIDE NO ADVICE

[edit on 19-5-2010 by GreenBicMan]

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
Interesting Chart Here about the dollar vs. gold breakdown that could potentially be occurring.

It is anyone's guess as to how this plays out if it indeed does keep occurring. As I have noticed in another thread about the relationship of Baltic Dry Index vs. commodities especially Copper.

This could be mostly due to Eurozone breakdown vs. dollar as well - so too early to tell what exactly is happening currently, but should be interesting either way. Or at least interesting to me

I can't believe this Dollar Gold has split to such a divergence btw. Not sure what it really means either just rampant retail spec. of there could be something in the works.

Key words here are SPECULATION.

I nor anyone else unless your name is Fabulous Fabrice (lol) has a crystal ball. Be weary of all markets right now IMO. Could go many different ways and whipsaw you into submission faster than you can blink.