GOLD is due for about a 30% +/- CORRECTION, let me convince you in this thread

reply to post by GreenBicMan


My feeling is this shakeout could go deeper as well, just how deep is the real question. I would certainly not sell any physical though in this pullback - that would be madness as the volatility in the swings (witnessed last Friday week) can be brutal. Plus, depending on your location, it seems some gold outlets are raising their premiums in concert with the drop.

I did sell gold stocks Thursday, hoping to get back in soon. Other paper gold investment, I unfortunately did not sell, will weigh that up over the weekend and make a decision just prior to Asia/Sydney opening.

Gold ain't in no bubble. Still got a long way to go for that, as the real parabolic moves in gold have yet to manifest.

I'd like it if your 1080-1090 projections were hit! I think at around those levels, and certainly around 1040-1050 is where the oft talked about Beijing put will rear its head, if gold can manage to get to that level.

I hope for a 30% downtrend this coming week...
because on 2 Dec '09 (the full moon)
i sent a 1/2 weeks wages to my GoldFund/ROTH account, to buy more shares.




I'm Also crossing my fingers about Gold remaining down in the $1k oz. area until the end of the year,

so that i might accrue more year-end shares when the GoldFund distributes annual dividends in the form of shares, sometime around Dec 26-28th. ~ its a marginal ammount, but compounding over time would make as few as 3 extra shares... worth several Thousand$ more in the account in a decade.~



[edit on 5-12-2009 by St Udio]

Originally posted by cloudbreak
I'd like it if your 1080-1090 projections were hit! I think at around those levels, and certainly around 1040-1050 is where the oft talked about Beijing put will rear its head, if gold can manage to get to that level.

Hi CB. I think the OP is calling for a 30% correction (850-ish). Major support between 1030 - 990.

A-lot depends on what the dollar does here. Bucky's approaching the apex of the wedge. Up..or..down , somethings gunna give....soon.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/71b26e264903.jpg[/atsimg]

I don't understand why some folks continue to think mine supply is a bearish factor. Demand has outstripped supply for better part of the past two decades. Besides , when prices run high miners engage a practice known as "low grading"...meaning it becomes profitable to mine their lower grade ore-bodies. Low grading causes overall output to trend downward...but the life of the mine is extended , and ultimately more gold is produced in total.

They mine their higher grade deposits when prices are soft.

South African mines run out of gold

In Wall Street language trends are fun to talk about. What about One World Currency? What has to happen before we go to One World Currency? Does gold have to have equal value for the G8? G20? Who isn't up to currency value? Did the recent India purchase balance that?

reply to post by OBE1


Ok yes, thanks - sorry I actually couldn't bring up the OP's chart earlier as my connection went mind-numbingly slow for some reason; I had read all the replies on here, and when I posted was thinking about the OP's post plus your levels at the same time.

Anyway, I agree about the mine-supply factor - it's been documented time and again output is on the wane, and all the good, easy-to-access supply is dwindling.

It is only when prices are high that the harder to reach and process gold - which takes much longer to reach market, and hence less timely supply to the market - is mined, because the high gold prices enable the mine to be profitable to access that grade ore.

All the easy stuff is gone, and supplies are dwindling.

30% down from here is a big call. But anything is possible, and it would present a monumental opportunity to load up, but I don't think it will be quite that easy. At that level I would expect explosive upsides in price of the likes we have not seen before. If it gets to 850, in my opinion it would not stay there very long at all, as gold is still in a long-term secular bull - and the fiat games being waged on an international level have as much to do about gold as they do about currency supremacy.

It's going to be an interesting couple of weeks. I really have to do some thinking prior to Monday.


[edit on 5-12-2009 by cloudbreak]

Good post CB.

Talking about supply , you've probably already read that 2009 Buffaloes just went the way of 2009 Gold American Eagles. I wonder if fractional supply will make it until the end of the year ?

US Mint Ends 2009 Buffalo Gold Bullion Coin Sales, Inventory Depleted

reply to post by OBE1


Your correction to the 50 ma would be a good start as depicted in your 2nd graph - your first one is too short a timeframe for me to comment on

reply to post by cloudbreak


I think for this rally to remain "healthy" it needs to go to around 1000 first yes. At some point if this wants to remain intact, just like the SP500 right now, it will need to test the 200 EMA as well - at one point the SP500 will do that, but I am VERY STRONGLY BULLISH on that as well - a few conflicting thoughts I know, but lets see how this all plays out

Remember my first chart posted in the OP is on a weekly scale, so it could take a while for this to fully develop

reply to post by St Udio


Well if you are in it, or looking to get in it, I wolud NOT if it all happened next week. That would be not good, this weekly scale thing should take a while to develop fully

reply to post by OBE1


In reality you are correct, all markets are SUPPLY VS DEMAND and FEAR vs GREED

FEAR always plays the fastest part of course, although anything is possible with so many random players involved

reply to post by cloudbreak


Yes, its another buying opportunity it seems, but judging by that chart I posted there will most likely be better buying opportunies, at the same time while letting the chart unfold and it may do something totally unexpected - giving yourself time to get into a historically high priced overextended market would be "priceless" at this point

[edit on 5-12-2009 by GreenBicMan]

[edit on 5-12-2009 by GreenBicMan]

[edit on 5-12-2009 by GreenBicMan]

I realized I never put this in LOG format - that really does not depict the whole story otherwise - although it really was not too far off

www.sierrachart.com...

When it comes to TA , the smartest man in the room is a woman. Louise Yamada is arguably the most celebrated mainstream technical analyst on the planet. She's no Goldbug either , but she was one of the very few to call the bottom in back in 2000 , and she's been right on Gold ever since (along with other markets). In the pits of the 2006 correction when all the top callers were screaming "the Gold bubble had finally burst" and several seasoned bulls were throwing in the towel , she said Gold would break 730 in 2007 , with a target of 3000 minimum within a decade.

If anyone thinks Gold is in a "bubble" they really need to listen to this King News interview recorded at the end of Oct.

Purely a technician , Louise begins with Gold , covers oil , bonds , interest rates...and finishes with her technical outlook on the dollar...dollar bulls may want to F/F through this portion of the interview dollar bears/Gold bulls will want to keep the Gold:dollar inverse in mind

I am soooooo not worthy: Link

reply to post by OBE1


An old Smith Barney employee

Back in the days where you threw the chair through the window in the interview - Being 26 I missed the boat with those days and the Internet boom (even though I caught the last part that took me out lol)

There is no reason to fight a bull tape ever. Gold is obviously that right now, no one can argue that of course.

Gold is not going up......the dollar is going down.
It takes more of them to buy gold
The dollar is being devalued and has since the Fed in 1913 and
expotentially since Nixon in 70'

Gold is the standard, the base.

One ounce of gold in 1920's ($20) would buy a nice suit.

That same ounce (~$1000) today will buy the same suit.

Only way for the number of dollars to buy gold can go down
is to strenghten the dollar. You can't do that by printing more of them
to cover your debt.

.02c

[edit on 5-12-2009 by Pinktip]

reply to post by Pinktip


I can buy most of that, but I think GLD has a supply/demand issue going on right now

reply to post by OBE1


Yes, I had read about lack of some coins and halting of production on some lines. Well, all I know is that if we do get a big drop, I would expect premiums to increase on physical, along with an even greater scarcity! Fractionals certainly will see alot of demand with any sizable drop, as it's fairly clear the uncertainty around the world is nowhere near behind us.

Greenbicman - Well it is going to be an interesting week, that's for sure. I'm kind of hopeing on one hand your call is correct. But it is going to be very tricky timing the bottom I think. Let's see.

I will also add, that less than 5% of the US population even own gold
(paper or physical)

As more people wake up to the fact that it is a global currency, demand will increase.

I own physcial gold and physical copper,lead and brass in combo.

reply to post by cloudbreak


Its all just "guesses" in the end, although I feel I roll a loaded die. Anything can and will happen of course

MSM attributed Friday's sell-off to the "positive" November jobs report. Dubious gubmn't stats told us the unemployment rate had improved to 10%....down from 10.2% in October.

The Jobs report is issued at 8:30am NYT....


DEC 4
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/d67b565e5f69.gif[/atsimg]

BOOM! - down.


Under the media' rationale , it follows that the negative Oct jobs report 10.2% (highest in 26 yrs) would have caused an immediate spike in Gold.

But look what happened last month , again , precisely at the 8:30am release....


NOV 6
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/2bf1e9c37d8a.gif[/atsimg]

BOOM! - down.


The moral of this story?

Positive numbers , or negative numbers...Gold ALWAYS gets hit on the release of the jobs report.

On Friday the takedown stuck. TMOTU (The Masters of the Universe) were able to leverage a technically overbought market...a condition that needed to be reconciled before Gold can begin it's next leg-up . Good news for sidelined $ looking for a softer entry.

On Friday morning the RSI was tracing 82...down to 56.38 at the close.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/15b5d81316ae.jpg[/atsimg]

Not even stellar fundamentals can halt a technical correction , nor should they , but lets see what happens if the market reverts to oversold after another day or two of selling.



[edit on 6-12-2009 by OBE1]