New Earthquake Swarm at Yellowstone- October 14, 2009

Originally posted by Shirakawa
Before an eruption I think we would first have to see very evident changes in geyser patterns/temperatures and ground deformation.

Yeah well, that's what they say, but in Yellowstone's case I am not so sure- as with any supervolcano. The fact of the matter is, humanity does not have the benefit of hindsight when it comes volcanoes this large. For all they know eruptions may not exhibit the same signs as with smaller volcanoes. The volumes of magma are so large that when they give, they could very well do so without any further warning. Because we have had plenty of warnings already, for years.

Stress meter rock tests, while potentially applicable to smaller volcanoes, may not be so applicable way down deep where the majority of this magma is. What appeared to have held for a smaller volcano could give way under the staggering pressure of something this big.

You have mentioned the extra water discharge, and I just wanted to point out that if there is that much excess above ground, don't you think the same would apply immediately under the area due to seepage? And if that's the case, then you know what happens when a lot of water reaches a lot of magma. Steam to the max, and consequently, a lot more pressure.

Did you see the depth of that 2.5? 5.2 kilometers. Now that, as you know, is a particularly dangerous depth as it concerns the huge magma plume under that thing.

I wanna believe there is nothing wrong here and it is just another hiccup. But damn, one of these days we are going to run out of luck. Let's just hope it is not in our lifetimes.

Originally posted by nikiano
The web bot prediected that in October, something poisonous could be activated into the atmosphere, and circle the earth 9 times and kill off hundreds of billions of people.

You are worried because of what an internet spider "predicted"? Is there no end to human stupidity?

Originally posted by Thought Provoker
reply to post by lernmore

 

No, I'm only mad at Time Warner. I mean... reeeeeeeally mad. Here I am, a loyal customer for 12 years, one of the first people to get their cable modem service in this city, over $200 a month since then for their "services," and what do they do? They do their best to make my life miserable by blocking my IP two or three times a day, at 3am or just after they know I've gone to work. If they weren't literally a monopoly in my neighborhood, I'd have switched away from them years ago. They are Hobson's ISP. "Take us, or you get NOTHING."

"But don't you know you can get a static IP for only $15 a month more?" people say to me, and yeah, I do know that. But WHY?? It does not cost them a single penny to give someone a static IP, so why should I pay extra for it?? I'm already paying $55 a month for "Road Runner Turbo with PowerBoost(tm)", which gets me like 10 mbps here in Austin, but in Dallas (the *RICH* parts of Dallas) the same damn price gets them 15 mbps! Now tell me they aren't evil. Either that, or nobody working there has more neurons than teeth.

Okay, rant over... don't wanna create a TL;DR situation. Where were we, umm... oh.

You're welcome. :-)

---------------

(Wow; someone starred this?? Must be time for a revolution!)

[edit on 10/15/2009 by Thought Provoker]

My first thought was DDNS but that would involve people having to use a new url... Maybe worth it depending on the amount of headaches you are getting. I also may have misunderstood how your ISP is "blocking" your IP. If they block it, how are you getting it back. Send me a U2U if you want to discuss further.

**This does relate to the thread as his site is about Yellowstone so holdoff on the premature mod'ing**

By the way TA, keep kicking @ss!

editted to fixx miy speeling prablum

[edit on 15-10-2009 by Roadblockx]

reply to post by YourForever

Why do you care so much about whether this poster is worried, anyway?
Is it affecting you personally in some way?
Are you invested in web bots competition or something?
Just asking.

It's better than just coming on here to bad mouth someone else! IMO

Unless you have a better prediction that is more accurate
and not so "stupid", by your definition.....
We're all ears, I'm sure......
feel free to share your intellectual insights with us!
Or is that too much to ask? Is bad mouthing just easier and fun?
Do you feel all superior now?
Must be therapy, or maybe it's really just a kneejerk response to deal with
some deepseated feelings of inadequacy.
Hopefully it's that and not just about being a stickhead.

Stupidity has nothing to do with it! Its a computer program!
Whether someone is worried or not is a personal reaction,
and completely irrelevant anyway! And possibly off topic!
One can ignore what one chooses to!

I dont think the YS volcano cares much about personal feelings.
Or web bots. But I could be wrong of course.
Sorry for the rant. Some "people"!

Edit, I just read your signature....nevermind!


[edit on 15-10-2009 by dodadoom]

Originally posted by undo
reply to post by TrueAmerican

 

are we only interested in vertical movement?
cause east west has been consistently the biggest in every example i've seen so far.

Actually, the BHN channel of H17A has consistently shown the largest displacements in this swarm. BHN= north/south movement.

Normally, to answer your question, I am only interested in BHZ channels (vertical movement) so that I can detect things. But once something happens I may also load BHE and BHN channels, or EHN and EHE channels, if need be to get a better picture of what is going on. The HE and HN channels are useful for times like this when a hotspot is discovered and there are lots of quakes. Or if a big quake occurs somewhere and you want to further scope it out.

But this is similar to last year in that most often the HE or HN channels showed a higher displacement than the HZ channels.

I have come to learn that by monitoring just HZ channels at first, you can monitor many more stations, and have more on the screen at once. So that also helps. Hope that answers your question ok.

reply to post by dodadoom


Considering the length of your response and overuse of emoticons, I'd say you're the one getting worked up here. I may be ignorant in this, but have any of the webbot's predictions come true? If you have a thread with a list of the ones that it got right and wrong so that I can make a fair judgment, that would be great, but from my experience from all the talk of the webbot on ATS and other forums, it has very little credibility.

Originally posted by YourForever

Originally posted by nikiano
The web bot prediected that in October, something poisonous could be activated into the atmosphere, and circle the earth 9 times and kill off hundreds of billions of people.

You are worried because of what an internet spider "predicted"? Is there no end to human stupidity?

the same spider predicted the tsunami and the fall of the dollar and the financial decline of the us, within a moth as far as accuracy. i didnt used to believe it as well, but after research, it has been pretty creepy.

they even used the program to predict (accurately) events for the DC sniper shootings, as in, names of places and people who were going to be killed.

just sayin...

hey, on GEE under the Tools tab, there's a menu option called
"Seismogram Info".
Edu.iris.Fissures? interesting name. I gots a feeling this is where the stuff gets a bit more technical. I can see it's referring to an event or events. the event has a begin and end time, a station identifier, a channel identifier but what's the sampling and unit count?

US.LKWY.00.BHN
Channel IDUS.19910328T00:00:00.000Z.LKWY.00.BHN.20090506T02:10:00.000Z
Begin TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:29:25.516 GMT
End TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:49:25.516 GMT

edu.iris.Fissures.seismogramDC.LocalSeismogramImpl@199600b
IDBHN-2009,288,12:29:15
NameBHN-2009,288,12:29:15
ChannelUS.LKWY.00.BHN
Num Points5418
Begin TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:29:04.556 GMT
End TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:31:19.981 GMT
Sampling5418 in 135450.0 milliSECOND
UnitCOUNT
Min-4070.0
Max2939.0
Mean-718.7155777039497

edu.iris.Fissures.seismogramDC.LocalSeismogramImpl@15cccf1
IDBHN-2009,288,12:31:19
NameBHN-2009,288,12:31:19
ChannelUS.LKWY.00.BHN
Num Points5272
Begin TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:31:09.131 GMT
End TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:33:20.906 GMT
Sampling5272 in 131800.0 milliSECOND
UnitCOUNT
Min-4070.0
Max6362.0
Mean22.420523520485585

edu.iris.Fissures.seismogramDC.LocalSeismogramImpl@1d5efc
IDBHN-2009,288,12:33:20
NameBHN-2009,288,12:33:20
ChannelUS.LKWY.00.BHN
Num Points4931
Begin TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:33:09.931 GMT
End TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:35:13.181 GMT
Sampling4931 in 123275.0 milliSECOND
UnitCOUNT
Min-5929.0
Max5081.0
Mean-2731.4224295274794

edu.iris.Fissures.seismogramDC.LocalSeismogramImpl@14a0f81
IDBHN-2009,288,12:35:13
NameBHN-2009,288,12:35:13
ChannelUS.LKWY.00.BHN
Num Points5179
Begin TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:35:01.881 GMT
End TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:37:11.331 GMT
Sampling5179 in 129475.0 milliSECOND
UnitCOUNT
Min-3893.0
Max1281.0
Mean-579.3168565360108

edu.iris.Fissures.seismogramDC.LocalSeismogramImpl@5992c6
IDBHN-2009,288,12:37:11
NameBHN-2009,288,12:37:11
ChannelUS.LKWY.00.BHN
Num Points5321
Begin TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:36:59.456 GMT
End TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:39:12.456 GMT
Sampling5321 in 133025.0 milliSECOND
UnitCOUNT
Min-3180.0
Max755.0
Mean-1262.0599511370044

edu.iris.Fissures.seismogramDC.LocalSeismogramImpl@b315c1
IDBHN-2009,288,12:39:12
NameBHN-2009,288,12:39:12
ChannelUS.LKWY.00.BHN
Num Points5536
Begin TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:39:00.381 GMT
End TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:41:18.756 GMT
Sampling5536 in 138400.0 milliSECOND
UnitCOUNT
Min-3715.0
Max3031.0
Mean-1198.2574060693642

edu.iris.Fissures.seismogramDC.LocalSeismogramImpl@1b834b9
IDBHN-2009,288,12:41:18
NameBHN-2009,288,12:41:18
ChannelUS.LKWY.00.BHN
Num Points5183
Begin TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:41:07.156 GMT
End TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:43:16.706 GMT
Sampling5183 in 129575.0 milliSECOND
UnitCOUNT
Min-3266.0
Max2321.0
Mean-1324.5996527107852

edu.iris.Fissures.seismogramDC.LocalSeismogramImpl@65808d
IDBHN-2009,288,12:43:16
NameBHN-2009,288,12:43:16
ChannelUS.LKWY.00.BHN
Num Points5253
Begin TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:43:05.556 GMT
End TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:45:16.856 GMT
Sampling5253 in 131325.0 milliSECOND
UnitCOUNT
Min-3373.0
Max1269.0
Mean-1559.3725490196077

edu.iris.Fissures.seismogramDC.LocalSeismogramImpl@e87717
IDBHN-2009,288,12:45:16
NameBHN-2009,288,12:45:16
ChannelUS.LKWY.00.BHN
Num Points5077
Begin TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:45:05.331 GMT
End TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:47:12.231 GMT
Sampling5077 in 126925.0 milliSECOND
UnitCOUNT
Min-3910.0
Max1217.0
Mean-1464.5570218633052

edu.iris.Fissures.seismogramDC.LocalSeismogramImpl@d4b575
IDBHN-2009,288,12:47:12
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ChannelUS.LKWY.00.BHN
Num Points5415
Begin TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:47:01.431 GMT
End TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:49:16.781 GMT
Sampling5415 in 135375.0 milliSECOND
UnitCOUNT
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Mean-1476.1793167128346

edu.iris.Fissures.seismogramDC.LocalSeismogramImpl@83368a
IDBHN-2009,288,12:49:16
NameBHN-2009,288,12:49:16
ChannelUS.LKWY.00.BHN
Num Points886
Begin TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:49:06.206 GMT
End TimeAD 2009.10.15 12:49:28.331 GMT
Sampling886 in 22150.0 milliSECOND
UnitCOUNT
Min-2388.0
Max536.0
Mean-1608.6117381489842

reply to post by YourForever


Depends on what you define as human stupidity. If it's about something that hasn't provided proof, then yes (webbot).

Btw, hundreds of billions of people, then the moon is affected by it,too?

[edit on 16-10-2009 by -Thom-]

here's an abstract on yellowstone caldera. it's pretty descriptive, gives precise measurements and offers additional info that i found surprising (the columbia plateau data)

excerpt

Integration of geophysical and geological data show that the Yellowstone hotspot resulted from a mantle plume interacting with the overriding North America plate, a process that has highly modified continental lithosphere by magmatic and tectonic processes and produced the 16-17 Ma, 700-km long Yellowstone-Snake River Plain (YSRP) silicic volcanic system. Accessibility of the YSRP allowed large-scale geophysical projects to seismically image the hotspot and evaluate its kinematic properties using geodetic measurements. Seismic tomography reveals a crustal magma reservoir of 8% to 15% melt, 6 km to 16 km deep, beneath the Yellowstone caldera. An upper-mantle low P-wave velocity body extends vertically from 80 km to 250 km beneath Yellowstone, but the anomalous body tilts 60 °WNW and extends to 660 km depth into the mantle transition zone. We interpret this conduit-shaped low-velocity body as a plume of up to - 3.5% Vp and - 5.5% Vs perturbation that corresponds to a 1-2% partial melt. Models of whole mantle convection reveal eastward upper-mantle flow beneath Yellowstone at relatively high rates of 5 cm/yr that deflects the ascending plume into its west tilted geometry. A geodynamic model of the Yellowstone plume constrained by Vp and Vs velocities and attenuation parameters suggests low excess temperatures of up to 120 K, corresponding to a maximum 2.5% melt, and a small buoyancy flux of 0.25 Mg/s, i.e., properties of a cool, weak plume. The buoyancy flux is many times smaller than for oceanic plumes, nonetheless, plume buoyancy has produced a ~ 400-km wide, ~ 500-m high topographic swell centered on the Yellowstone Plateau. Contemporary deformation derived from GPS measurements reveals SW extension of 2-3 mm/yr across the Yellowstone Plateau, one-fourth of the total Basin-Range opening rate, which we consider to be part of Basin-Range intraplate extension. Locally, decadal episodes of subsidence and uplift, averaging ~ 2 cm/yr., characterize the 80-year Yellowstone caldera monitored history and are modeled as hydrothermal-magmatic sources. Moreover a recent episode, 2004-2009, of accelerated uplift of the Yellowstone caldera at rates up to 7 cm/yr has been modeled as resulting from magmatic recharge of a 10-km deep sill at the top of the crustal magma reservoir.

read the rest here:
tiny.cc...

[edit on 16-10-2009 by undo]

I think the New Madrid will shake before the Yellowstone Caldera will blow.
Either would be ABSOLUTELY devastating.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


When was the last time the Yellowstone caldera blew it's top?

reply to post by BigDaveJr


Last big eruption occurred about 630,000 years ago

www.earthmountainview.com...

Originally posted by spinkyboo
Wow - you sound angry.

I know about the others -
I don't have a blank stare on my face.

I never saw the Discovery Channel special on Yellowstone.

I track all of the volcanoes - earthquakes - floods - etc. Have for years.

I don't think we should ever discourage people from looking at the information available and make them feel like fools for researching, learning, tracking and discussing amongst themselves - and the poster that I originally posted to was doing just that.

Now - please go be angry at someone else.

As have I, as it's been a love since I was a little child. I'm also probably more familiar with the caldera than most here, as I actually visit the place frequently.

I go for the Geysers, which require me to be up to date on all quakes going on in the Caldera -- even the small ones. I was actually kind of hoping the swarm at Lake Yellowstone last winter would have kicked up activity at West Thumb Geyser basin, but it didn't.

It's more of an anger at these very threads that immediately have doom sayers or imply that Yellowstone is going to go kaboom over inconsequential quakes that have no bearing. Those are the ones that don't research, learn, or track. Instead they discuss how it's going to boom tomorrow. I think the 400+ thread still semi-active on this board proves my point.

Maybe I should celebrate it. The more people who think this and avoid the place, the less people who stay at Old Faithful Inn, and the cheaper the rooms would be to fill vacancies.

I can only imagine the threads that will start when Yellowstone WILL have another 6 to 7 magnitude quake in or near it.

So am I mad at you? No, I'm mad at the very situation. A sensationalized caldera thanks to the Discovery Channel, when far more active an dangerous caldera systems are out there acting up, but are steadfastly ignored. I'd have to say your comment on people being dumb about Yellowstone is what irked me greatly.

No one cares about the South America Caldera uplifting ground the size of Yellowstone, but a few 2.0 quakes at the resurgent dome(s) in Yellowstone causes panic.

As for last eruption being posed here, it was ~70,000 years ago that did NOT cause a caldera forming eruption, just like the 79 or instances of volcanic activity or so before it.

As for tracking, Lion Geyser has been acting strangely since the Giantess Eruption and/or quake swarm starting yesterday. We're not sure if this is perm, or just a glitch yet, and still monitoring the Lion Complex. It would not be unheard of for a small swarm to cause long term changes in geysers.

Lion had a series of 11 eruptions yesterday during the daylight hours, when it usually averages 2-3 and a short pause before another active phase. Even more strangely was the durations increased and were fairly long before sunset took in. As the fog just cleared up in the basin, we're watching it to see if it continues the strange behavior.

Originally posted by justine093
I think the New Madrid will shake before the Yellowstone Caldera will blow.
Either would be ABSOLUTELY devastating.

I'm with you on this one. I think YS is gonna be fine.

Also, the Cascades in Oregon I feel is an area to watch.

After reading through 9 pages of volcano information, theories and ideas, I see where those that have a passion for volcanos may be a little touchy when the crowd suddenly shows up to see a huge bang. Must be what those that live in the northeast think when all of those travelers come look at the leaves change and make a hell of a mess.

So that I don't offend or disrespect anyone, I would really like to read more about these calderas but am not sure where to begin. Yes, I know where Bing, google and yahoo are but those that have a passion for this kind of thing would be able to quickly say, try looking up x or y which would save me (and those reading this post) a lot of time.

Thanks in advance.

Originally posted by Not Authorized
As for tracking, Lion Geyser has been acting strangely since the Giantess Eruption and/or quake swarm starting yesterday. We're not sure if this is perm, or just a glitch yet, and still monitoring the Lion Complex. It would not be unheard of for a small swarm to cause long term changes in geysers.

Lion had a series of 11 eruptions yesterday during the daylight hours, when it usually averages 2-3 and a short pause before another active phase. Even more strangely was the durations increased and were fairly long before sunset took in. As the fog just cleared up in the basin, we're watching it to see if it continues the strange behavior.

You think this may be due to the increased water runoff we were talking about earlier in the thread?

With such a complex but efficient hydrothermal system, it may be this is Yellowstone's answer to get rid of any excess water that has worked its way underground.

But that is most definitely curious that this has been happening since this latest mini swarm. That of course implies that whatever happened during this swarm caused it, but that may not necessarily be the case. Lion Geyser is about 14 to 16 miles to the west of where these recent quakes (many of them) have been occurring, so it could be related, but it may not be.

Activity appears to have returned to normal levels in the area of this recent swarm for now. But I am picking up some small activity, and have been for the last couple of days on the northern and northeastern rim of the caldera.

About the Lion Geyser, I found this while searching more information about it:

www.geyserstudy.org...

A site with Yellowstone geyser information and updated data about geyser eruptions.

www.geyserstudy.org...

Information and data about Lion geyser

And in particular this:

www.geyserstudy.org...

Lion Geyser eruption data.

Unfortunately it doesn't include recent data, it stops at mid September. It's probably updated once a month, so maybe we will see soon recent data.

[edit on 2009-10-16 by Shirakawa]

Originally posted by Not Authorized
I was actually kind of hoping the swarm at Lake Yellowstone last winter would have kicked up activity at West Thumb Geyser basin, but it didn't.

You know, that might be more of an important statement than I first realized. So what does that very fact indicate?

1) Considering that the Geyser Basin is reasonably close to where that last swarm occurred, maybe there isn't a direct correlation between EQ swarms and geyser activity?

2) If that's the case then maybe the Lion Geyser oddities have nothing to do with this recent swarm, and it was just a coincidence?

3) That if there is no correlation, then maybe scientists shouldn't use a change in the geothermal system as an indicator of an imminent eruption?

I dunno, just thinking out loud here, but I'd be curious as to more thoughts on this.

3.1 greater los angeles. how bad is a 3.1?