Things are bad but not that bad.

Turn on your local news channel and what do you hear? Stories of job losses and recession? The dollar collapsing? Unemployment rate topping or nearing 10 percent? Of course you do because this is the picture being painted for us and we in turn take it, multiply it and spread our newly created "doom" scenario to others who in turn do the same. In this thread I hope to explore the state of things and possibly enlighten some on "what's really going on" as well examine the lack of complete economic collapse that some believe is coming soon.The unemployment numbers are the highest they have been in 26 years, bad? yes,but nowhere near the 25% present in 1933. but we will recoverm as we did after the great depression.

What would complete economic collapse look like anyways? Would it look like times at present? Maybe not as we still see full shopping malls,gas stations,fast food restaurants,movie theaters ect ect. Let's take a look at some facts.
New jobless claims continue to drop Sep 24, 2009

The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits fell for the third straight week, evidence that layoffs are continuing to ease in the earliest stages of an economic recovery.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/02ef63bd7ab2.jpg[/atsimg]
Like a yo-yo we're being led to believe that the job market is in shambles but the numbers tell us about declining unemployment numbers as noted in the article above, article dated 9-24-09 following weeks of unemployment claims declining. Wich then leads us to the following.

New Jobless Claims Climb More Than Expected

Oct 1, 2009,First-time claims for jobless benefits rose more than expected last week, a sign employers are reluctant to hire and the job market remains weak.

Quite a drastic headline chnge in a matter of 7 days don't you think?But up and down we go as hope for some rises and falls allowing panic to set in.

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT In the week ending Sept. 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 551,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 534,000. The 4-week moving average was 548,000, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average of 554,250.

U.S Population Estimate

We see unemployment claims dropping as employment oppertunities in all job sectors opens up and employers beguin to recover from financial losses with some areas slowly regaining momentum.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Sept. 12 were in Puerto Rico (6.1 percent), Oregon (5.4), Nevada (5.3), Pennsylvania (5.3), California (4.9), Michigan (4.9), Wisconsin (4.8), New Jersey (4.7), North Carolina (4.7), Arkansas (4.6), and South Carolina (4.6).

Source.

The financial industry was hit hard with high losses but some sections still reported profits through 2008, though the "average joe" would have believed in a complete collapse of the economy.Timeline: U.S. Credit Crunch & Financial FailuresSep 15, 2008
Top ten industrys

Those claiming that jobs are scarce are just enabeling the undue panic to spread like wild fire, creating fear and allowing a sense of hopelessnes to set in, fact is there are plenty of jobs nationwide and local resources statewide to aid the job seeker.
USA JOBS.
Alaska Job center network
Alabama state jobs
California,Florida,Illinois
And so on and so forth. Check your local job assistance office or workforce center for listings and openings if you are one of the many currently out of work, but fear not as the panic spread by some continues, Things will get better and once the recovery gains momentum it will continue.Also I'd like to read some situations from your area and compare with others as well.





[edit on 5-10-2009 by alyosha1981]

Hmmm... :shk: ...and here's the ~counter statement~

Friday, October 2, 2009
U6 Unemployment Tops 17%
unemploymentadvice.blogspot.com...

Unemployment in Detroit Climbs to 28.9 Percent
August 28, 2009 9:33 AM
blogs.abcnews.com...

Is the California True Unemployment Rate at 18.47 Percent?
www.mybudget360.com...

And my local stats...

Economy at a Glance
Jackson, MI
www.bls.gov...

July 2009 16.0%

Mining, Logging, and Construction
12-month % change -19.0

Manufacturing
12-month % change -15.4

Professional and Business Services
12-month % change -12.0

[edit on 10/5/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Complete economic collapse ? Yes.

But how people respond to it depends on the individual person, spirituality, and the culture..

The good guys, trust in the Almighty and try to help each other.

The bad guys stock up on guns and ammo and plot to kill to survive.

The Japanese will stand in line to get free soup.

Americans will snipe From roof tops with telescopic sights, and have no soup..

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
Hmmm... :shk: ...and here's the ~counter statement~

Friday, October 2, 2009
U6 Unemployment Tops 17%
unemploymentadvice.blogspot.com...

The official rate for Sept. 2009, otherwise known as the U-3 is 9.8%. The U-6 is the most inclusive and is 17.0%. Those are seasonally adjusted rates.

Bureau of Labor and Statistics links for some dry reading:
Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

Economic News Release - Oct 2nd

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Nothing comparred to 1933, although It's still bad the numbers change, certain sectors profit and others post losses, it's part of recession but does get better, and the media as well as fearmongers keep people thinking the worst at all times swaying their thoughts to boost sales in products and services of theor choice.

@Silver shadow:

Yes it is how people handle the situation that matters, it's jut too bad that the general mindset of the public is so gloomy.

@Enlightenup:
Thanks for the links, and adjust info that's whats important.

[edit on 5-10-2009 by alyosha1981]

reply to post by sadchild01


I'm going to respect your opinion here as an ATS'er but as a veteran I have other thoughts I'd love t send your way, also you should read the end of hate speach on ATS thread.www.abovetopsecret.com...

[edit on 5-10-2009 by alyosha1981]

reply to post by alyosha1981


but 1933 was the WORST of the Depression.

In 1930, The GNP falls 9.4 percent from the year before. The unemployment rate climbs from 3.2 to 8.7 percent.

1931, The GNP falls another 8.5 percent; unemployment rises to 15.9 percent.

For 1932, GNP falls a record 13.4 percent; unemployment rises to 23.6 percent.

In the 1930's there was no such thing as Unemployment Insurance, Welfare or Food Stamps. Those 3 programs are the ONLY reason we are not seeing things as they really are, because of government entitlement programs, people are able to continue pretending things are just fine.

We now use GDP (Gross Domestic Product) rather than Gross National Product (GNP) and if you look at the chart Here you will see that we are clearly in the negative territory.

Also, take into account that the formulas for determining the numbers have changed since the 1930's. You also have to be very careful reading reports and if they are comparing month to month, quarter to quarter or year to year, because the aggregate changes grow exponentially depending on the method of comparison.

reply to post by redhatty


Your right about the 3 government services being a saving grace for the people, but year for year we're nowhere near where they were back in the late 20's and early 30's, with May 17, 2007 being the start of the financial "collapse"

reply to post by alyosha1981


maybe yes, maybe no. In the 1920's they averaged 600 banks a year going bankrupt.

This time, we have the "to big to fail" banks that have been bailed out

in the 1930's the concept of selling the amount of debt as we have since 2007 was inconceivable!!

It was as early as 1928 when the construction boom ended, and it was 5 years later before the worst of the Depression hit. It was 1929 when business inventories grew three times larger than the year before. Public consumption was markedly down.

Automobile sales declined by a third in the nine months before the crash. Why do you think we just has a C4C program? To stop a repeat of the same numbers. Freight carloads and manufacturing also fell in 1929.

Looking at the Dow or S&P500 today to be an indicator of how the economy is is the wrong thesis. IN the late 1920's and the 30's it was the correct thing to monitor, but today, we have so much market manipulation occurring that it is not "safe" to use the stock market as an economic gage.

Sure, in 2007 we had a severe decline, and we will probably have another one in the future. But to use that & that alone as the indicator of whether things are better or worse than in the Great Depression is an exercise in mental masturbation. You can keep felling good, if you only rub the right spots.

Edit to add:

Also, a HUGE factor... in the 1930's the US Dollar was still on the gold standard. It was impossible for the .gov to simply create $$ out of thin air, like they can now. This severely limited the gov response to the failures and crash.

Now, that isn't the case, our $$ is pure fiat $$, and all it takes is a few key strokes on a computer to create more & continue to bailout or backdoor fund whatever needs to be kept looking good.

But eventually, the US Dollar will have to face the decline in value that this manipulation creates, and when that day comes, all bets on things are not so bad are off.

[edit on 10/5/09 by redhatty]

A lot of people on ATS wish there was an economic collapse for no reason other than it makes for an entertaining topic of discussion on a conspiracy message board. I would say most of the stuff I read is mindless pandering and without factual evidence. Generic statements like "the whole house of cards will come crashing down, the sheeple will be in for a big surprise, blah blah frog in the boiling pot of water."

Seems to me this belief has more to do with dissatisfaction with the status quo rather than something based on reality. Things are bad, obviously, but life will go on. The economy is on life support, sure, but it would have collapsed already if it was really as bad as people say it is.

I will eat my hat if the economy collapses and we are all standing in breadlines. You can hold me to that.

I doubt people actually want to live through economic collapse, but I think Hollywood films have a good way of romanticizing an apocalyptic scenario in contrast to the doldrums of modern civilized life.

Since this board is full of skeptics, the opinion that hell is around the corner is more easily galvanized by the mob mentality of ATS saying that everything the government says is a lie or half-truth.

If the government went public stating that the sky is blue, then the contrarians of ATS would present some bizarre conspiracy theory involving reptilian genetic manipulation through HAARP + project bluebeam bending the light spectrum in the atmosphere.

This country has been through a lot worse. I have to admit, things aren't looking great, but we haven't even spent 12% of the stimulus package. Relax folks.

[edit on 5-10-2009 by northexpedition]

I'm interested in the discussion about social structures and how we now have a system in place to support the unemployed when such systems didn't exist the last time.

But, is this structure able to be supported with ever-decreasing tax revenue and ever-increasing national debt?

A few things that I haven't seen mentioned here...

1. The global financial systems are now far more intricately connected than they were in the 1930's. The opportunities for "financial acts of war" are numerous. The chances of a single event anywhere in the world damaging the global economy have increased significantly. Imagine if (god forbid) there was a large-scale attack on any financial institution in London or NY tomorrow. With the economy already struggling, this could deal a fatal blow in an instant.

2. America is in record debt, without an end in sight. Your children and their children WILL be paying it off for generations to come. This isn't a myth or a delusion, it is a fact. The paying out is set to continue with leaders pledging to "support business" until it no longer needs it. What if that is a decade down the line? We could quite literally find ourselves unable to comprehend the amount of debt we bury ourselves under.

3. Two years ago analysts began stating that the leadership is shifting away from America. After the disastrous leadership of Bush (what did you expect, he collapsed several businesses and you expect him to make the right decisions in the running of a country?), wars on two fronts, his response to 9/11... it was seemingly inevitable that America would loose respect and dominance across the globe. China and Russia are in position to pick up the baton, so where does this leave your foreign policy? Will America allow this to happen organically, or will they fight to try to regain control? How much would that cost? Are you in a position to pay for that kind of fight?

4. Several nations are discussing the use of alternative currency as reserve. I am not certain what this would do to the $, but I can guarantee that if nations start moving away from using the $ as reserve currency, this will certainly affect your own economy significantly.

All in all, I can see why people simply don't want to face the facts of this crisis. But burying your head in the sand and pretending it's not as bad as it looks is not sensible.
None of us have experienced this kind of crisis before. And that is perhaps why we have a certain naivety as to what it actually all means for us individually. Sure, some will manage nicely. I haven't found any problems yet because I don't have my own place, I'm in a secure industry. The only thing I've noticed is things being unavailable or delayed when buying on-line.

But many will struggle.

The primary issue will be government operations and social structures. As our governments fall deeper and deeper into debt, and unemployment rises, tax income falls, cuts are made, standards drop, health drops, education drops, defence is affected, arguments ensue, skirmishes break out, they turn into war...

We have seen this before, and we need to learn from history in order to prevent its repeat.

To map the September 1929 collapse to this one we would also use the September 2008 collapse. Although there were earlier warnings of what was to happen the market collapse was the obvious sign.

We have not yet shook off the parasitic programs started after the 1930s. Those should have been temporary. We should NOT have social security, welfare, or other programs that seems to be self-supporting. Instead private churches or other private non-profits should be there for those who need it. This would result in less gaming of the system by opportunists and foreigners, who occasionally collect benefits as multiple people.

According to the BLS, 138 Million people are employed. There are 305 Million people in the US (as of June 2008), and there are 236 Million non-institutional people over 16 years old. Less than half of the people support the majority.

Anyone here questions that maybe MAYBE the numbers coming out from the Fed and from labor department are SLIGHTLY manipulated to keep the true extent of our problems from being known?

I mean, wasn't it four or five years ago that the Fed stopped reporting the M3 money supply, ostensibly because they didn't feel it important enough to report, but really to prevent the world from seeing, even then, just how much money it was printing?

Two numbers that are always sent for political review before public release are inflation numbers and employment numbers. I believe that is why there are so many different categories in those releases. Headline Inflation numbers always exclude fuel and food (cause people don't drive or eat ) and Headline employment #s only count those receiving benefits. I personally believe that U-6 is the best indicator of unemployment levels in this economy. Myself and many people I know are working in jobs under their ability and earning potential just to make ends meet.

The 9.8% number I guarantee is manipulated either through birth/death model or seasonal adjustment to keep it under 10%. If you look at the U-6 number we're pretty darn close to that 20% UE rate.

reply to post by alyosha1981


Why do you keep comparing to 1933? The Depression just started last year. So we're still at 1930.



BTW, I admire (or laught at) your trying to spread optimism. But just as it was in the 30s, those who're suffering now will be penny pinchers for life. And your myopia prevents you from seeing that oil prices will go back to pre-crisis levels if there's a full recovery. And that's a big if.

Originally posted by northexpedition
The economy is on life support, sure, but it would have collapsed already if it was really as bad as people say it is.

Notice how your statement contradicts itself. This is why paranoid folks are smarter.

This country has been through a lot worse. I have to admit, things aren't looking great, but we haven't even spent 12% of the stimulus package. Relax folks.

And what do you think will happen when the rest is spent? Inflation!

In an interesting case of syncronicity, I came across an interesting article today. It's less than a week old, and I'm sure I would have caught it had I not been otherwise occupied last week.

Floyd Norris NYTimes-blogs

The recession took a much larger toll on employment than was previously reported, the government said today. The Labor Department said that it planned to revise the job figures by subtracting more than 800,000 jobs that it had wrongly estimated were filled by workers.

Interesting little opinion piece, but most importantly you have the Labor Department saying that they have overestimated the number of jobs in the market. The money quote is this.

The benchmark revisions numbers announced today will not be incorporated into the published numbers until next February, and could be revised a bit before that happens. When that happens, the level of employment reported for each month since March 2008 will decline.

So not only is the employment situation bad, but it's worse than is being currently reported.

Originally posted by northexpedition
Seems to me this belief has more to do with dissatisfaction with the status quo rather than something based on reality. Things are bad, obviously, but life will go on. The economy is on life support, sure, but it would have collapsed already if it was really as bad as people say it is.

I will eat my hat if the economy collapses and we are all standing in breadlines. You can hold me to that.

[edit on 5-10-2009 by northexpedition]

While Black Tuesday took place in 1929 the economy of the great depression really didn't crash until late 1930 and into 1931 when deflation kicked in. Furthermore, it didn't bottom until 1933.

There is so much more (CRE, Debt, dollar value) that can / may happen while the Fed tries to get everything under control, to say that it would have taken place by now is, well, a bit short sighted.

It may be your opinion, and that I cannot argue with, but when looking at the known risks, which are greater now than before the first collapse, things could reach a situation that mirrors last fall (if not worse).

You are right, life will go on just as it did after the long depression and the great depression. The real question; however, is what will life be like AFTER the economy bottom and the problems are worked out.