Economical Meltdown THIS November

People are always coming up with rubbish dates, ignore them.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by cpdaman

 

its based on a mean pe ratio of 18 which is actually mid to in the lower range for a bull rally - thats why pe's should run a bit higher, so stall a bit on the earnings while prices move higher

[edit on 30-9-2009 by GreenBicMan]

only thing is it is not a "bull market rally" it is a Bear Mkt rally on PPT/FED liquidity steroids....but still a bear Mkt rally...keep on pray'n to uncle Ben...

[edit on 30-9-2009 by cpdaman]

reply to post by cpdaman


HAHA

up more than 50% from lows on year, I would call that a bull market and take a look at the hourly candles over the past 6 months if you think otherwise

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/353f629b377a.jpg[/atsimg]

There is nothing wrong with being hopefull. But after numerous times losing money in the market, most people are rather gun shy. How many times does it take getting kicked in the -----you know what I mean. Sometimes financial advisors forget to mention, after losing say 25% one year on your portfolio, how many good years it will take to make all that money you lost back. And that's only if you have all good years.

When I see our economy, I try to look at it realistically. The small ammount of good news out there is way overshadowed by continous worse news. If some want to believe that we have turned the corner on this recession, go ahead, I tend to believe we have turned the corner into a blind alley. Common sense tells me there is too much misery to overcome the tide. We have fallen off the cliff, and are waiting for someone to tell us "it's only a dream"...

Reality and cold hard facts will catch up with all the green shoots people soon enough. I believe everyone's gut feelings are right. All is not well, and despite the government mantra that all is well, listen to your gut, it's probably more accurate.

So when are they gonna admit that it's a depression?

Whether a meltdown occurs or not, I think it's inevitable given the tactics and habit world business is based upon. It doesn't take a genius to see that this path leads to an end of business as usual. I mean who actually thinks printing trillions out of nowhere is a sustainable remedy? It's like putting a wet paper towel on your severed arm-stump and then happily going back to work. It's insane. It makes utterly no sense whatsoever to me, and I'm completely astounded the world is buying it. It's like painting over rust and rot before you sell your house and not worrying about whoever moves in next. It's irresponsible, and downright dangerous.

OK, rant aside, a meltdown of some sort will happen. When? It's hard to say - I, like you, have heard from many sources that it will be around October 25th, early November, or next summer. Given the past year where the phrase 'economic collapse' has dominated the headlines, it's much easier now to see our next phase of collective financial pain.

I can't put a date on this economic event, because my background involves calculating the future based on 'fractal time' and rate of change - meaning, I can tell you when great change will happen, not exactly what will happen. The program I use is called Timewave Zero by Terence McKenna. Considering time as a cycle, you can look at our point on the current cycle compared with the exact same place on a previous cycle and then obtain what is called a resonance. This information gives you then some idea as to what 'theme' this shift carries with it. The days surrounding October 25, 2009 match July 10-17, 1942 and May 1810-December 1811. Those periods of our history were quite eventful, full of epic change and pain, and were turning points when considering the grand scale of events, however these don't necessarily point towards economic disaster, only substantial change.

The web-bot guys are getting a heap of economic related linguistics, and quite a few people 'feel' a change coming, but I only know of the timeshift we approach as being on or around Oct. 25th, and as far as I know this shift will bring with it heightened novelty - that is, tremendous change and even chaos. Many times these shifts involve sustained tension expressed in the news, and ongoing personal tension due to reaction to world events. Through this tense time, the interconnectedness of people peaks because everyone's talking about it, posting about it, twittering, etc. An example would be the last dip in the Timewave graph - June 25th, 2009 (the day Michael Jackson died). You'll remember that in the weeks before it, the media was saturated with Iran's election and subsequent protest, as well as North Korea's testing and threats. When MJ died the world's attention shifted to something entirely different on that very day. That period matched the French Revolution - which played out as Iran's Revolution.

Here's the graph I've been referring to, it's a screenshot from the program with annotation added by me. The lowest point is plotted as early October 26th GMT.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/99a13a97f811.jpg[/atsimg]

I've been doing a bit-o-reading... "Volume Zero, Issue Two" and I went back and got "Volume Zero, Issue One" just for the backfill.

Taleb's "The Black Swan," pretty much dumps all over the idea of being able to actually see The Black Swan coming... but on the collective, this still holds true even if a few people pick up on it as it unfolds.

George Ure (urban survival site, and another web-bot guy, economically focused) thinks that this is a replay of the great depression.

I personally can't buy the Timewave Zero idea... but this is more to me having a lack of understanding of it than anything else. I pretty much stay in the Web-bot camp. Conceptually I can get a grip on that.

Now... one MAJOR thing that I have discovered from "The Black Swan"... is that economic experts are not experts at all. Cab Drivers and College Students have just as good a track record at predicting the the market as the experts do. And if you go poke around at The Market Ticker and read Karl Denninger's musings about the rampant corruption in the Banking-Fed-Gov flow of cash... you'll see that the idea of something bad coming... is well founded.

The National Retail Federation threw some cold water on the holiday:

WASHINGTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The National Retail Federation today released its 2009 holiday forecast, projecting holiday retail industry sales to decline one percent this year to $437.6 billion.* While this number falls significantly below the ten-year average of 3.39 percent holiday season growth, the decline is not expected to be as dramatic as last year’s 3.4 percent drop in holiday retail sales nor as severe as the 3.0 percent decline in annual retail industry sales expected for all of 2009.**

No, really? Gee, who saw this coming?

On the Pearl River Delta, China's major export base, orders at many shoemakers were already low as the situation has gone from bad to worse. According to China Business News, a European customer's sudden cancellation of an order for original high-end shoes at an unnamed company might cause that company's bankruptcy as it has already bought materials and entered production.

And what foreshadowed this report? Why this Ticker and the article that spawned it.....

Remember, this is the time when Christmas goods are on the way. You can't order something from China, have it produced, and then have it sent in a ship in a week. Uh uh. Those goods have been ordered now, they are in the pipeline for delivery now, or they're not coming.

They're not coming.

Flat to down 1% is insanely optimistic folks.

market-ticker.denninger.net...



[edit on 6-10-2009 by RoofMonkey]

i'd be looking for a date soon after March 2010 for the commercial property market to fold, which will make the sub=prime mortgage crisis pale in comparison.
see, in March, a lot of the mechanisms propping up the commercial/industrial property baloon will expire, or lack financial support
the layers of taxes will be due with nowhere to borrow
as the 'market maker' financial institutions will be bearing the expenses of forward payments of FDIC insurance being due for themselves.


just One of the Two house of cards to collapse...(just as the twin-towers did as a precurser to the ever accelerating TWZ compression of events)

reply to post by Raud



Things may get dirty and bad.

It's best to buy a piece of farm land, underground shelter and clean water source. Grow your own food, potato the simplest.

We can survive by eating boiled potato every day. Just do enough exercise to stay healthy.

All the best.

There will be a major war or a terrorist attack well before the powers that be allow a total economic collapse. That is not an option for them.

reply to post by RoofMonkey


I remember reading an article in New Scientist about Nassim Teleb's 'Black Swan' book - I have an archived copy deep in the back of my bookshelf (where it will have to stay for the time being). I never read the book however from what I gathered from the article he put forth a very logical theory on predicting the unpredictable.

Anyway, given you're interested in the Web-Bot Project and are open to the fact that some events in the future are able to be detected prior, I think McKenna's Novelty Theory (Timewave Zero) would be acceptable as well, given further research of course. I'm sure you've also heard of the Global Consciousness Project - it measures pretty much the same thing the Web-Bot tracks, however it's more accurate, short-range predictive, and near real-time. It's definitely worth looking into.

Back to Web-bots and Timewaves - there are major correlations between the data collected by the Web Bot project and the data contained within the Timewave Zero program. Time and time, again both endeavors point to the very same dates as being major shift points. I would like to point out, the information comprising the Timewave is very old (and is derived from the ancient Chinese I-Ching) - October 25th has been earmarked as a date of high novelty since the program's inception, which was in the mid-80's. The version I use was released in 1993. The Web-Bot Project came up with October 25th around mid-2009 using data in constant flux.

During their Coast to Coast interview on July 21, 2009, the Web Bot guys Cliff High and George Ure, talk about upcoming shift points in time, and oddly enough both dates mentioned are the same as what's present in Timewave Zero. During the discussion, they mentioned Terence McKenna's work on 3 separate occasions along with John Calleman's and Ian Lungold's. The video below is a very brief summary of the interview and was put together to highlight the similarities between the two and the acknowledgment of fractal time by Cliff and George.

The mentions occur at 2:52, 8:27, and 9:03.



2:52

Our data seems to confirm the theories that are expressed by Terence McKenna, as well as Mr. Calleman, and Mr. Lungold in their own ways because we do appear to see, as George puts it, waves of increasing pressure, and as the wave passes you into a kind of stabilized equilibrium for a brief period of time, and then this is what we're calling the 'building of emotional tension' and 'release of emotional tension' periods. So as we go forward in time, the pressures will get quite severe...

8:27

The initial emotional parameters I set seemed to have been altered, and I've had to constantly adjust the data, which has led me to the conclusion that Terence McKenna is right, that time is fractal, and now I think that there may be an actual physical or quantum reason for this...

9:03

...and it's really strange when you start to look at some of the work of Calleman and McKenna how they describe the Eschaton, the 'end of time' so to speak, and the Meso-American calendar how they also discuss the compression of events within these periods as we go forward - and it's really woo-woo spooky that it's all lining up this way at the same time we see these people reacting as predicted.

Here's another video I posted on Youtube regarding Cliff High's opinion of McKenna's work:



All 3 endeavors work well with each other (Timewave Zero, Web-Bots, and the GCP). Here's a quick analogy using the 3 theories in relation to time described as a roller coaster. The Timewave is the track - it doesn't change. We change while experiencing events along the track. The Web-Bot tracks our expectations of upcoming loops and drops - our fear, our building excitement, our anxieties, etc. The GCP tracks the experience as we traverse the track - it tracks the 'now' (and very slightly into the future - it tracks our scream just before we inhale as we see the approaching drop in the track). All 3 projects track in total what it's like to experience events along a timeline. Each has its place and importance. The Timewave provides few specifics and gives a long-range prediction of event windows. The Web-Bot gives specifics which can change, and the prediction is medium-range. The GCP is shockingly accurate, however you have merely minutes to react before something big happens.

If you would like I can provide more links if you want to research the GCP or Timewave further. Here's a video on the GCP featuring Dean Radin:



Lastly, here is the Timewave graph for the entire year of 2009. I put this video together using 365 screenshots from the DOS software, and all major shifts are present:



[edit on 7/10/09 by Evasius]

Originally posted by Evasius

...If you would like I can provide more links if you want to research the GCP or Timewave further...

As long as I dont fry any synaptic junctions trying to figure it out....


I was a bit disappointed in Rense this evening... Cliff High was scheduled to be on and I went as far as setting up an audio snag only to have some one else show up. George Ure was on in his scheduled spot, so it wasn't a total loss. Probably the only time I'll ever go to the Rense feed.

Anyway...

My opinion.. is that part... (as in not the whole thing) of the reason we are in the dire straits that we are... is that someone (or a group) was monkeying around and trying to profiteer off of Kondratiev cycle five.

en.wikipedia.org...


[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/01b5fd67ccce.png[/atsimg]

Technically.. we should have rolled into a recession period off of the IT tech starting around 1983. Greenspan came to power in 1987, and came up with a monetary policy that drove the h### out of the Dow and Nasdaq. This staved off the recession but peaked around 14 Jan 2000. Then it popped.

As pointed out in this New York Times opinion article, from 2002:

The basic point is that the recession of 2001 wasn't a typical postwar slump, brought on when an inflation-fighting Fed raises interest rates and easily ended by a snapback in housing and consumer spending when the Fed brings rates back down again. This was a prewar-style recession, a morning after brought on by irrational exuberance. To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.

And low and behold... a housing bubble forms... propping up the economy with rampant consumer debt. About 12 Oct 2007 it peaks... and about 7 Oct 2008, it falls apart. (Gee, where have I heard that date before).


Meanwhile, Greenspan's protégé, Ben Bernanke has stepped up to test out the '"helicopter drop" of money into the economy to fight deflation' thing that appeared in his thesis. Greenspan goes on to do consulting work for Pimco (see the NYT quote from above) and later goes to work with ... wait for it... "Paulson & Co hired Alan Greenspan as an adviser on economic issues and monetary policy" All this time, his wife, Andrea Mitchell continues to spew whatever popular B/S is available on the boob tube.

Yee Haw....


Note... in the previous four Kondratiev waves we had a knock down drag out war at each bottom part of the cycle. War of 1812, American Civil War (accompanied by a German semi civil war in Europe, the Austro-Prussian War), WW-I, WW-II... all related to economic strife in one way or another.

This time... the null happens to coincide with 2012. The economy is in the toilet, we have forces over seas p##in people off, and the people driving the show have no clue just how precarious things are.

Edit Add: BTW.. that "NewElectrics" meme that Cliff High mentions... if the Kondratiev wave theory is correct... should start showing up or being implemented in the 2016 - 2034 time frame. That's about the time that new technology pops up for the next wave. Provided some country somewhere retains capitalist.




[edit on 8-10-2009 by RoofMonkey]

Our economic collapse is engineered. Ever since the fed.reserve act of 1913, the banks in control figured out how to remain in control. Now the value of the US dollar is at an all time low. Its all problem, reation, solution. Soon the gov. will have a solution by going to the Amero. Once our nation becomes destabilized by this crisis the North American Union will be another solution. If that doesnt do it, theres always the h1n1 virus, fuel & food shortages.

i really like how now that the banks got their bailout funds all the bad news isnt bombarding us as "breaking news" to scare us into doing whatever they say.
now the news goes like this "the dow is up 54 points today sparking optimism on the recovery. Oh and we lost 300,000 more jobs, but the dow is up folks!!!"

As soon as they need more money the fear campaign starts again in earnest.

Doesn't really matter.

The show is over.

Government Violates The Citizens (Again)

This is going to be an ongoing series, I suspect - tracking government abuse of the citizenry via debt-shifting.

What am I referring to? Simple: Back-door bailouts of banks and industry (notably the auto industry) through farcical programs that con the citizens of the nation to take on unsustainable debt, thereby transferring what should be a corporate or bank failure to into a whole bunch of personal bankruptcies.

There are two programs in particular that exemplify this attempt; "cash for clunkers" and the various machinations in the housing space, including the insanely loose FHA credit procedures.

Cash for Clunkers violated two basic premises: It destroyed perfectly good capital assets (older cars that were in good running condition; indeed, it required 12 months of continual insurance coverage and registration - that is, proof of being in good running order for the past year - to qualify!) and replaced them with a vehicle that had a presumed debt load on it.

Now we find out that indeed (as I have long suspected) the government's insane FHA approvals of patently unsustainable loans was an intentional act:

Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in an interview that the defaults were, in essence, worth it.

“I don’t think it’s a bad thing that the bad loans occurred,” he said. “It was an effort to keep prices from falling too fast. That’s a policy.”

Got that? It's a policy to intentionally bankrupt people so as to allow banks who have made bad mortgages a chance to avoid their own bankruptcy.

market-ticker.denninger.net...

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[edit on 10-10-2009 by RoofMonkey]

[edit on 10-10-2009 by RoofMonkey]

Gawd I hate responding to myself... people truly are sheep.

Dennis Kneale, Larry Kudlow, hell, name a "mouthpiece" on ToutTV or in the sell-side of Fraud Street and you'll find someone claiming that "the recession is over."

But if it is, how can this be true?

Lockyer’s spoke before Controller John Chiang said state general fund revenue fell $1.1 billion below estimates during the first three months of the fiscal year that began July 1.

Let's boil this down a bit: Sales tax revenues came in at $99.8 million, or 4.5% lower than expected.

Income tax revenues were also off big, but remember that income taxes are (usually) progressive, so a loss in income translates into a larger drop in tax revenues (as an aside this, my friends, is why "tax the rich" only works when the rich are getting richer - when they start to get poorer as a consequence of your redistribution schemes and move down the tax ladder, your income tax receipts collapse!) while sales taxes are a straight percentage of sales, often with the only exception that would skew on an income basis being food.

This strongly implies that California saw gross consumer sales off about 4.5% from where they expected; this, of course, raises the question "what was expected?"

Denninger again.

Which is why Queen Nancy is pushing the VAT idea around. That way they can soak the hell out of everybody for the Corruptocracy of the United States.



I pledge allegiance to the Crooks of the United Sheep of America, and to the Corruptocracy for which they stand, one Nation full of fools, in perpetual crisis, with hidden taxes and fees for all.


Edit Add:

We have a regulatory environment where The Federal Government has intentionally left out of the Federal Legal code strictures on operating a bank while insolvent, when many states explicitly define such an act as a felony, thereby giving The Federal Government cover in allowing banks to operate long enough to generate 20, 30, 40 and even 50% losses as measured against their asset base before being closed. To date nobody has been criminally charged in relationship to these events.

We have banks that are intentionally sitting on "NODs" (Notices of Default) and foreclosure actions, with many people in bubble areas not having made a payment in more than a year. There are those who view this sort of thing as "good" for the economy (since those individuals continue to spend in the local economy instead of being evicted.) Banks are doing this to avoid having to take the "mark" on the defaulted asset; by refusing to recognize the current value of those assets as the recovery value and instead holding the note at "par" or near to it, they effectively cook their books and appear healthier than they are. Government is allowing this and claiming that it is "for the good of the economy" to keep these blown-up banks in business but along with the default on the mortgage comes a default on the impound account (if there is one) which means state and local governments are not receiving their property tax revenues.

We also have banks that have homes that have either "jingle mailed" or otherwise been left empty, and the banks are refusing to sell these properties off for the same reason - maintenance of these "assets" at unrealistic values on the books of these firms. This also results in the property tax bills not being paid as there is nobody living in these homes and nobody making the payments to state and local governments.

It has become clear during the last two years that despite the royal screwing that is imposed on state and local governments as a direct consequence of these actions Federal regulators, lawmakers and administration officials will not step in and put a stop to it, as they are fully bought and paid for by the financial industry.

market-ticker.denninger.net...

[edit on 11-10-2009 by RoofMonkey]

As we have now passed the 7th of November with all limbs intact, I feel the need to quote myself so that we might avoid the "HA HA, YOU WERE WRONG!!! LOLZ!!11!" as much as possible...

I don't know if this is going to happen ka-blam, or if the slide is just going to speed up a whole lot more, or what ever.
All I know is that the situation is going to be a hell lot worse before it gets better...

The Mayan calendar is to be viewed upon like this;
At the beginning of every shift, it is the sowing of a seed.
At the end of it, you reap the fruit.

On the 7th, a little seed was set to grow. In about a year, as the 7th day begin, we shall see how it turned out.


So far, the results are nothing more than symbolic.
Oil went down, gold went up (to a new record).
US stock market closed a little up after an initial down. Overall, the eastern markets did better.

So...might not be much to show for just yet, but things will continue down the preset route, inexorably...



Now I have covered my ass with whatever cloth I could find.
If you still feel the need to flame it, you may do so now.

Nothing will happen. We had these doom predictions all over the entire year. The recession and unemployment will continue, but no big crash.

[edit on 12-11-2009 by segurelha]

I am leery of "date-setting" of all sorts, from the October 25th thing up to 2012 in general.

Nevertheles, to play devil's advocate for a moment, it is technically possible that something earth-shattering actually did occur on October 25th...if so, it could be that we little people who are not part of the TPTB won't learn of exactly what happened for some time. That's usually the way it works, by the way...the power brokers get the shockwaves first, and it takes some time for the damage to percolate out to us "little people." Just some food for thought.

[edit on 11/12/09 by silent thunder]