Hurricane Making a B-line Approach to Cape Cod

Late Tuesday morning, Bill was centered about 700 miles east of the Leeward Islands and moving west-northwest near 17 mph. Bill was a large system, about 300 miles across, so Bermuda faces a potential threat even if the Atlantic island avoids a direct hit. But where Bill will go isn't certain, but meteorologists said they don't project the storm to reach the U.S. at this point.

Federal forecasters only provide five-day forecasts for hurricanes and have difficulty making reliable projections of the storms' paths beyond three days. Storms also can change direction at short notice.

online.wsj.com...

Now listen Wild Bill, you stay from our favorite love creature dg, ok? Just stay away, go back to where you came from and dissolve...k?

There, I vanquished it for you lovey.


[edit on Tue Aug 18th 2009 by TrueAmerican]

TA,

Thank you for the magic spell. If it doesnt come i will know it was you who took care of this heathen, and i will let everyone know.
You will be famous!!!!!

Heya DG,

Seems like this is how things started out last year -- you were ducking from an extratropical [things happened in between] and we got slammed by at Cat4/5. Hope it plays out the same or better for you, and different for us.

Well, it looks like many of the early model runs such as the GFDL are developing it and looking at a steering track that would make it a fish storm -- one that recurved out to sea. Still, even in that event, could be fairly harrowing for you all on de Cape. NOAA's Wavewatch III models over 120 hours look like [a probability of] wave heights in exess of 10 feet for much of the Eastern seaboard.

The SSTs are expected to rise a bit, which seems likely to develop and already symmetrical Bill into a major hurricane.

On the other hand, the Saharan Air Layer has a fairly strong area ahead of Bill, although the shear tendancy looks negligible.

I think it all depends upon that low trough developing in the NE, as to how far Bill is pushed offshore. I don't think you're being kneejerk at all in looking at it and being concerned. As others said, it can do nearly anything in 5 days. Myself, I always feel comfortable and safe right in the "cone of doom". Why? BECAUSE it always changes. It's when we're on the edge of the probability that I get concerned.

Hopefully, you take this opportunity to review your systems, supplies and safety strategy (hey! that's almost an alliteration!)

We'll all keep an eye on this with you. I hasten to add, in case it wasn't already apparent, that I'm merely a weather weenie, this isn't a forecast, and I haven't a clue what I'm talking about. You want some professional weather analysis, maybe you can get OZ in here.

Be safe.

Originally posted by dgtempe

Well, if you want one, we could discuss HAARP.

Hahahaha

Lets not

Seriously though, will be keeping an eye out for you. Remember for large storms, such as hurricanes, typhoons etc, 5 day forecasts arent as accurate. Keep checking the 3 hourly updates

Edit to add images

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/50f32108d2c3.gif[/atsimg]

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/4d8e082a8829.jpg[/atsimg]

[edit on 19/8/2009 by OzWeatherman]

Heya DG,

I kinda expect ol' Bill to weaken as he heads toward you. That might also cause an enlargement of his influence, but overall if that happens it will be good for you, at least windwise. The NOAA site I linked in my earlier post indicates a probability of very high waves..... perhaps in the 15-20 zone. That's merely a computer model, so it could go less or MORE. If you are coastal, I urge you to get your procedures and safety strategy in order. If high waves are a serious threat, please consider getting out of there before Sunday. Sunday -- at least at Bill's current forward speed and track -- could be midday or thereabouts for Bill to be at his closest point to you, although I wouldn't doubt feeling the effects much sooner.

If the low I talked about develops and pushes Bill northward, you might get by with only low tropical storm force winds. Of course, there will likely be gusts at least 50% higher.

Hard to advise, and I'm not qualified to do so anyway. We chose to stay in our house for Paloma last November, even though we're just a stone's throw from the beach, but there were mitigating factors: 1) Paloma ramped up rapidly, but it got smaller overall as it did so 2) it's forward speed increased from 4 to 10 mph, and best of all, I could see that it would likely arrive here at low tide, which it did.

Just be safe. Hopefully, you have contacts out of your area that can relay messages to us. Bill looks to be a very symetrical and well-formed storm and is currently a Cat 4.

Thanks for all the information.

I guess by Friday night we will know more. I have candles galore, oil lamps, canned food and i can always play solitaire with real cards and bother the neighbors
Sometimes they're coherent.

Anyway, thanks and i'll hope for the best!!!!

reply to post by dgtempe


Mmm, my parents live in Bermuda and there's a pretty high probability that it will hit them pretty hard ...

This seems to be a pretty major storm and I think they will start making preparation tomorrow ... I think they got an official warning about it today.

reply to post by dgtempe


Good luck....I rode out Ike and several others on the Gulf Coast. Stock up on food, water, and ice....get some gas and hopefully you have a generator.

RIDE IT OUT! WOOO HOOO HURRICANE PARTY!

ok, so i am gonna blow my cover here.

i am a forecaster here for the Northeastern US, i will keep an eye out on this and monitor track trends for ya and post updates here.

DISCLAIMER!!!

while i do forecast the weather and that is my job and i do get paid to do it, and i have been to school and all that yada yada yada, i am not in ANY way providing information on which any living creature great or small should make any financial personal spiritual or sensual decision. The information i provide here is not intended to be used for anything other than entertainment value! (for all those here who would do something crazy based on one forecasters oppinion...) AND i in no way represent ANY meteorological firm foundation or company, etc;

with that being said, in about an hour or so i will post the latest.

latest reports have bill slightly weakening to about 110kts due to some shear, forecast for some moderate strengthening as shear decreases over next 24-48hrs to 125kt, transitioning to extratropical after 96hrs with path west of bermuda.

with bill appraoching UL Trof off the east coast, expect increased shear but increased UL divergence, some models favor the divergence and show continued strengthening others favor the shear with moderate weakening, IMHO i expect some initial strengtheningto 135kt before mid-level shear finally disorganizes it and weakens it to 100kts by 84hrs.

with a storm this size, and with it strengthening to a strong cat4 it can be possible for it to track outside of UL steering and the potential for a westward-of-forecast track exists.

models show filling of the UL trof over the next couple of days and the next trof coming off the coast will stall as well, though it looks like the weakness in the Subtropical ridge will still be significant to track bill to the north/northeast, though i dont agree with the sharpness of the turn at around 96hrs on the latest track.

i would imagine the greatest impacts to cape cod will be a slight sealevel rise and wave hights up to 20 feet for a period, and maybe some borderline tropical storm strength winds. the fetch area for the waves at that time is going to be very large, indicating high coastal swells all along the new england coast, considering latest reports of wave hieights NE of eyewall are closing in on 40ft.

look for storm to remain east of cape cod.

again- this is all just for funsies here!!!

reply to post by dgtempe


We are watching this closely, my Grandma lives in Hyannis Port so my family up there would need to drive over and bring her to East Providence to ride it out.

Ok, so I just spoke with the family and Bill has now come and gone ...

It passed just to the West of Bermuda but really ended up being a rather minor event.

Medium winds, high surf, some beach erosion, a few trees down, but apparently almost 0 rain. Which is unfortunate because Bermuda actually needs rain right now as it is the main source of drinkable water and it hasn't rained enough.

Here are some videos I found on yt taken by some locals:







As it heads towards colder water it is of course going to weaken even further so hopefully for our New England friends any damage looks to be minimal.

reply to post by dgtempe


What's the atmosphere like on the Cape at the moment? Are you being advised to do anything by local authorities? Are people concerned? I have family on the Cape.