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Originally posted by Conclusion
reply to post by OldThinker
lol. I am afraid that would be over my head.
In his book The Design Inference, William Dembski introduces the "explanatory filter" as a device to rule out chance explanations and infer design of observed phenomena. The filter also appears in his book No Free Lunch, where the description differs slightly. In essence, the filter is a variation on statistical hypothesis testing with the main difference being that it aims at ruling out chance altogether, rather than just a specified null hypothesis. Once all chance explanations have been ruled out, ‘design' is inferred. Thus, in this context, design is merely viewed as the complement of chance.
To illustrate the filter, Dembski uses the example of Nicholas Caputo, a New Jersey Democrat who was in charge of putting together the ballots in his county. Names were to be listed in random order, and, supposedly, there is an advantage in having the top line of the ballot. As Caputo managed to place a Democrat on the top line in 40 out of 41 elections, he was suspected of cheating. In Dembski's terminology, cheating now plays the role of design, which is inferred by ruling out chance.
Let us first look at how a statistician might approach the Caputo case. The way in which Caputo was supposed to draw names gives rise to a null hypothesis H0 : p = 1/2 and an alternative hypothesis HA : p > ½, where p is the probability of drawing a Democrat. A standard binomial test of p = 1/2 based on the observed relative frequency ˆp = 40/41 ≈ 0.98 gives a solid rejection of H0 in favor of HA with a p-value of less than 1 in 50 billion, assuming independent drawings. A statistician could also consider the possibility of different values of p in different drawings, or dependence between listings for different races.
What then would a ‘design theorist' do differently? To apply Dembski's filter and infer design, we need to rule out all chance explanations; that is, we need to rule out both H0 and HA. There is no way to do so with certainty, and, to continue, we need to use methods other than probability calculations. Dembski's solution is to take Caputo's word that he did not use a flawed randomization device and conclude that the only relevant chance hypothesis is H0. It might sound questionable to trust a man who is charged with cheating, but as it hardly makes a difference to the case whether Caputo cheated by "intelligent design" or by "intelligent chance," let us not quibble, but generously accept that the explanatory filter reaches the same conclusion as the test: Caputo cheated. The shortcomings of the filter are nevertheless obvious, even in such a simple example.
Originally posted by Conclusion
reply to post by OldThinker
I do get your meaning as to your question. Why are all or most of the scientists that are believers looked down on by mainstream scientists? ....
Originally posted by madeioo
Just a couple of questions:
If a creationist couple, both white skinned, blond and blue eyed get pregnant and when the baby is born it comes out brown skinned, brown eyed and brown hair, did Jesus made it that colour?
Do creationists believe in selective breeding?
Originally posted by Jadette
Because 'god did it' isn't science.
Because you never sift through facts in order to build a predetermined conclusion - and Creationism or whatever other flavor of 'god did it' cannot be anything other than that - after all, you already have all your answers in the bible.
Originally posted by Jadette
Because 'god did it' isn't science.
Originally posted by Conclusion
reply to post by OldThinker
I think science has become a religion. Any thoughts on this?
Originally posted by Edrick
Oh my.... this should be interesting.
Creationism (Intelligent Design) should not be taught in school for two very good reasons.
1. Evolution is only a Theory.
2. Intelligent Design does not even QUALIFY as a theory.
Do you want to know more?
-Edrtick
Intelligent Design does not even QUALIFY as a theory.