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The U.S. savings rate is now the highest it's been since 1998. Tess Vigeland talks to former Undersecretary of Commerce Robert Shapiro about whether he thinks the rate will stick.
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Outstanding U.S. consumer debt fell by $10.3 billion, or 4.9 percent at an annual rate, to $2.5 trillion, the Federal Reserve said. That's a much steeper cut than the $4.7 billion analysts expected, according to Thomson Reuters.
Originally posted by wayouttheredude
I would hardly call the savings rate a positive economic indicator but people are going to need it when the hyper inflation really starts to kick in from these massive stimulus cash injections.
You should put on a happy face for your avatar instead of a scowl because you are going to need it.
Other programs will have to be managed more actively. Fed holdings of agency and long-term Treasury debt won't disappear on their own but will have to be run off gradually as the Fed reduces the reserve base, a process that's already beginning. Total reserve bank credit has dropped 8% since April.
The money supply has responded. M2, the broad measure of the money supply and the one that has the clearest relationship to nominal gross domestic product growth, slowed to a 5.4% annual rate in the first six months of 2009 after jumping at a 12.7% rate in the second half of 2008. (It rose at a 6.6% annual rate in the first half of last year.) This pace seems consistent with stable long-term inflation of about 2.5%.
The idea that the inflation genie can be painlessly rebottled has no historic precedent. Even mainstream economists, who’ve never met a fiscal stimulus they didn’t like, agree that central banks must act preemptively with regard to inflation. Bernanke is making the case that the new set of liquidity tools, hastily developed in the panic of late 2008, will act just as well in reverse. But liquidity is a lot like liquid, it’s a lot easier to spill than to un-spill. The Chairman believes that his new gadgetry will allow him to perform a feat of monetary magic no other central banker has managed to pull off. But given his history of getting it wrong, why should we assume that this time he will get it right?
WASHINGTON — Stagnant unemployment, shrinking tax revenue and a struggling economy threaten to quadruple the size of last year's federal budget deficit, raising more questions about the timing of costly proposals to overhaul health care.