Economic Growth's on the way!

NEW YORK (AFP) - - Top US administration officials said that economic growth is highly likely to resume in the second half of the year, but warned of "hard choices" to contain rising deficits once recovery is assured.

Geithner and White House economic adviser Larry Summers went on the Sunday television talk shows to make the case that President Barack Obama's economic stimulus program was gaining traction despite rising unemployment and worries about the US deficit.

"A very great likelihood, and this is what most professional forecasters say, is that we'll see growth going forward in the second half of this year," Summers said in an interview with NBC television.

Their prognosis was backed by former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, who told ABC the worst US financial crisis in a half a century was "not quite" over, "but we're getting there."

Well, frankly, that's fantastic news!!!

And considering it's only been what, seven months, I'm definitely happy! No sarcasm here, I'm actually glad that there are some results to come from all these policies!

"As you go into 2010, we can't just limp out of this thing, we need to be growing robustly to make sure that the unemployment rate comes down."

But as the US economy emerges from recession, the administration will be faced with another daunting challenge: bringing under control the huge deficits used to refloat the economy.

Republicans have zeroed in on the issue as their main line of attack on Obama's economic program and his push for reform of the US health care system.

"What I worry more than anything about is the long-term effects because we are committing generational theft," said Senator John McCain, the Arizona Republican who ran for president against Obama last year.

"We have put trillions of additional debt on future generations of Americans. And there is no one that I know that sees a way out of it."

Geithner said the administration's first priority was to stabilize the economy but he acknowledged that the recovery will not be "strong and sustained unless we can convince the American people that we're going to have the will to bring these deficits down once recovery is firmly established."

Asked whether that meant raising taxes, Geithner said, "We're going to have to do what is necessary."

Taken from: sg.news.yahoo.com...

Now, fellahs, don't go starting on the MSM-is-corrupted thing again. Don't see these same issues when you get your news articles from underground sources with questionable tastes. Apparently underground sources hold more credibility than proper news outlets. A reversal of common sense if ever there was one.

Anyway, it's about time the economy is recovering, and this news article only serves to give us hope!

What do you guys think?

You're kidding, right?

I mean when you look at the unemployment and it is only increasing "a little" or that the deficit is increasing by 24 trillion, or that Geitner came out and said middle class taxes were going up, what do you see that is good here?

Please explain how MORE people losing jobs is good.

Please tell me how tax increases are good.

Please tell me how our dollar, that is being devalued as we speak, is good.

Every day we get something different from this president. "The economy is the worst since the great depression"

Now, "The economy is improving"

We are now in the fourth quarter of a negative economy. By definition, the ONLY time that has ever occured in this country was during the 1930's.

I am not an economist. I hope someone out here can clarify this a little better than I can.

I think they are just trying to talk up the economy hoping that more people will begin to invest. It won't be long before we see manipulated data, graphs, and charts to go along with their feel good speech.

Fact is that we are already into the second half of the year and people are still losing their jobs, jobs are hard to come by, losing homes, can't get credit, etc.

The tax increases they speak of is the truth. Hell with Obama's promise. Taxes are coming to everybody in every shape, size, and form imaginable.

reply to post by KarlG


If you are getting you info from MSM and .gov I feel for you. Every figure coming out of the White House in the last six months has been garbage, doctored or spun. This has been proven time and again.

Originally posted by traderjack
reply to post by KarlG

 

If you are getting you info from MSM and .gov I feel for you. Every figure coming out of the White House in the last six months has been garbage, doctored or spun. This has been proven time and again.

"time and again"... Proof?

Google searches must be plummeting along with tax revenues. People aren't working, no tax being taken and thier internet being shut off, so yeah I can see where Summers might be getting optimistic. I think the big question has to be asked of the American people "Why so serious?"

Originally posted by KarlG

Originally posted by traderjack
reply to post by KarlG

 

If you are getting you info from MSM and .gov I feel for you. Every figure coming out of the White House in the last six months has been garbage, doctored or spun. This has been proven time and again.

"time and again"... Proof?

Nope! Sorry, Karl......this time, considering the montrosities we as a nation have had to endure, the burden of proof is on you.

The fact is, you won't and you can't...plain and simple. This is a fishing thread designed to distract and divide.

I don't know where you fit in the social spectrum, and honestly I don't give a crap.

Let me give you an analogy of what our society faces in the next 12 months.

THE PUMPKIN EFFECT:

The middle class is being rotted out to the core....eaten out like a virus inside out. Imagine a pumkin you would carve for Halloween, except you don't gut out the center contents, instead you just place it out on the mantle and leave it out. Slowly but surely the middle contents begin to rot and rot.....until it loses it's integrity and the top of the pumpkin literally collapses onto the bottom part. That is what is transpiring right now in America.

Soon there will be no buffer between the elitists and whom they consider the dredges of society.

People who continue to flaunt their sh$% around town are going to start getting jacked.

Those who are discovered to be corrupt will begin to be snatched in the quiet of the night. Assasinations and disapperances will soon become rampant.

This is not a possibility this is a certainty! We are all just in the waiting room right now.

Four key factors prompted the American rebellion. The factors consisted of Parliamentary taxation without representation, restriction of civil liberties, British military measures, and, most importantly, the legacy of colonial religious and political ideas. These issues shaped our government into what we know it as today. Parliament's taxation of the colonies was one of the most significant influences in the Americans' rebellion. Such acts as the Stamp Act, the Townshend Acts, the Sugar Act, and the Tea Act greatly angered the colonists for a number of reasons. One of the most important reasons was that the colonists did not feel as though they were being represented in British legislative assemblies. That would be inclusive of feelings pertaining to Americans' taxation without their consent.

[edit on 5-8-2009 by OnTheFelt]

reply to post by KarlG


If you can take some time and step on the last few pages of the Market thread it explain why the contraction that has been going on in the nation right now is going to be exploited as economic recovery.

The illusionary recovery is all staged to boost consumer confidence and investors confidence.

Taking into consideration that we are seen more debt instruments for sell and within weeks of each auction than before and the toll that unemployment is taking on the generated taxable income in the nation, that alone will make anybody have second thoughts at what the cheerleaders in Washington are telling.

No, our nation is no even closes to recovery, taxes increases will be needed and we should all expect them before the year is over or by the beginning of the next year.

But be aware people because if the government has to bailout again the economy in fall when the G-20 is to bring to the table the additional 10 trillion dollars of bad assets still circulation around that will be a very negative sight for our foreign debt buyers.



[edit on 5-8-2009 by marg6043]

I don't see it improving any in my sector. I work in the LTL transportation area. Most LTL's are just trying to hold on and are operating at break even points to as much as 107% OR. That means some companies are paying out $1.07 for every dollar they take in. YRC is the largest and they are right on the edge of collapse. Look at their stock, under $1.50 with a low of $.89. Speculation is they can not make it past January. Right now their union has the workers voting on taking a 5% pay cut and getting a 5% stake in the company, if they turn it down get out the nails for the coffin. This is on top of a 10% pay cut for a 15% stake in the company this spring. Those will be some lucky workers to own 20% of nothing when it goes under. They just posted a loss of$309 million last quarter. They lost a Billion last year and are on pace to loose over a Billion this year. They have put up property in exchange for making payments into the union pension fund for the next year.

I predict that it will be one of the worst Christmas seasons if not the worst on record. I don't believe the housing is starting to recover yet, though it is showing some sign of possible stabalization but I don't think it will hold. We have 600 foreclosures in our county and that has kept us from selling our house, despite being on the market for over a year. So we are going down the bankrupsy road as we have gone through all our money and our house is worth 50K less then we paid for it pre bubble in 2005. I now make less then I did when I started here 10 years ago and I make $7 an hour more now. We are being pushed to do more with less people every day. Many companies we deliver to are now working 4 ten hour days to keep open and reduce costs. Some are closing for two weeks at a time to stay in the game.

The newspaer just did a story on how the economy has had a positive effect here locally. With all the job losses and gas prices there is less traffic on the roads. Well there is good new, less traffic can only mean less buying at the stores. We have lost about a third of our restaurants and many of those were right off the interstate so I guess there are less people going by our city too.

Amazing how history repeats itself

A few select quotes during the depression years of 1929 to 1931.

Notice the “Expert” opinions which convey optimism, the bank bailouts, government assurances, the Hoover (Paulson) plan, and the deliberate attempt by the main stream media to manufacture consent for bailing out Wall St. Has anything changed?

“There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue”
- Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury. September 1929

Stock Prices Will Stay at High Level For Years to Come, Says Ohio Economist .
-Dr. Charles Amos Dice, professor of business organization at Ohio State October 13, 1929

“FISHER SEES STOCKS PERMANENTLY HIGH”
-Irving Fisher, Yale economist, October 16h, 1929


“BROKERS IN MEETING PREDICT RECOVERY; Partners in 35 Wire Houses at Conference Agree Selling Has Been Overdone.” October 25, 1929

NEW AID IS PLEDGED TO BANK COALITION; G.F. Baker Jr. Joins Parley at Morgan Offices and Many Other Offers Are Made. SUPPORT EASES ANXIETY
-October 26, 1929

Brokers Believe Worst Is Over and Recommend Buying of Real Bargains
– New York Herald Tribune, October 27, 1929

October 29, 1929 - Stock Market Crashes!

BROKERS BELIEVE BOTTOM IS REACHED; Others Say a Sharp. Recovery Is in Order.
-October 30, 1929 (Glad they covered both sides of the story!)

“FISHER SAYS PRICES OF STOCKS ARE LOW; Quotations Have Not Caught Up With Real Values as Yet, He Declares. SEES NO CAUSE FOR SLUMP”
-October 22, 1929

“Time to Buy Stocks” John J. Raskob, one of the country’s leading industrial and political leaders
-October 30, 1929

Headline “INSURANCE HEADS URGE TO BUY STOCKS”
-October 30, 1929

ROCKEFELLER BUYS, ALLAYING ANXIETY; Elder Financier Says Business Status Does Not Warrant the Destruction of Values. October 31, 1929 (Remember Warren Buffet in Sept 2008?)

Stocks Up in Strong Rally; Rockefellers Big Buyers; Exchanges Close 2-1/2 Days
– New York Herald Tribune, October 31, 1929

SEES NEW BULL MARKET.; President of Philadelphia Stock Exchange Makes Predictions.
-November 22, 1929

BANKING CIRCLES SEE TURN FOR THE BETTER; Several Developments Cited as Presaging Recovery of the Stock Market. -November 15, 1929

HOOVER CALLS LEADERS OF NATION TO CONFER ON WAYS TO SPUR BUSINESS;
-November 16, 1929

Headline: The Quieting-Down of Wall Street–Aspects of Government’s Relief Projects.
-November 25, 1929

“The Government’s business is in sound condition.”
Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury
-December 5, 1929

RESERVE BANK AREAS FORECAST NEW YEAR
Despite the obvious slackening of the pace of business at the close of the year, leaders in banking and industry throughout the country maintain an optimistic attitude toward the prospects for 1930.
-January 1, 1930

MORTGAGE MONEY SCARCE
-February 23, 1930

“The worst is over without a doubt.”
James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.
- June 1930

‘BUSINESS CYCLE’ SEEN AT NEW PHASE; Bankers Hold Downward Trend in Markets Indicates Recovery Is Near. DENY ANALOGY TO 1920-21 Economists Point to Superior Credit Conditions Now, Holding Easy Money Points to Revival.
-July 6, 1930

BIG BANKERS PUT UP $100,000 SAFEGUARD; House of Morgan Among Those Required to Provide Protection for Investors. -August 3, 1930
“We have hit bottom and are on the upswing.”
James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.
-September 12, 1930

BIG FIRM SUSPENDED; Prince & Whitely, 51-Year-Old House, Is Unable to Meet Its Obligations
In the midst of the severest market reaction in two months, the New York Stock Exchange announced yesterday that the 51-year-old firm of Prince Whitely, one of the largest and best known houses in Wall Street, had been suspended on its own admission that it was unable to meet its obligations. (Can we say Bear Stears?)
-October 10, 1930

SCHWAB FORESEES RECORD PROSPERITY;
-October 25, 1930

“30% OF STOCKS SELL UNDER BOOK VALUES; Capital Is Above Market Price.”
-December 14, 1930

NEW YORK JOINING IN BRITISH CREDIT; Federal Reserve Bank Agrees, if Requested, to Buy Prime Commercial Bills.
-August 2, 1931

REDISCOUNT RATE CUT TO 1 % RECORD LOW; Federal Reserve Bank Here Takes Drastic Action
-May 8, 1931

RELIEF FUND URGED MEMBER BANKS
Out of the experiences of the depression, resulting in the necessity for organization of the $500,000,000 corporation to relieve banks temporarily in distress, may come a remodeled Federal Reserve System that will be so constituted as to meet the requirements of present-day commerce and industry.
-October 9, 1931

BANKERS OF NATION BACK HOOVER PLAN; October 8, 1931 (Paulson Plan 2008)

HOOVER’S BANK PLAN GETS WIDE SUPPORT; November 15, 1931 (Media Manufacturing Consent)

$2,000,000,000 POOL FOR BANK AID URGED; October 26, 1931 (Bail Out Bill)

URGES BUILDERS’ AID IN HOME FINANCING; Bank Official Says Industry Could Help More With Second Mortgages.
-August 30, 1931

REAL ESTATE MEN ON THE HOOVER PLAN; Some Skepticism Is Voiced, but the General Belief Is That Good Will Result.
-October 11, 1931

HOOVER PLAN HAILED IN HOLIDAY SERMONS; (Praise the lord)
-November 29, 1929
“The depression has ended.” (Finally see the “D” word, but only to refer to it in the past tense…very common)
Dr. Julius Klein, Assistant Secretary of Commerce.
- June 9, 1931 (Stock market did bottom one year and 50% later)

5-YEAR MORATORIUM PROPOSED BY KEYNES; Hoover Plan Is a “Stop-Gap” Device
-July 1, 1931

WORLD COOPERATION: A NEW STEP AHEAD; The Hoover Plan Has Focused Attention on the Problem of Economic Unity THE NEW WORLD COOPERATION
-July 12, 1931

reply to post by mikerussellus


Thank goodness someone else sees the inflated reports for what they are.

"Economic increase" does not put us where we were. Did you note the latest bill on the table: increasing federal taxes for the few of us left that actually are still "legitiment" businesses and not run by governmental handouts that come with a string attached.

Those that are working for big corporations, don't get too secure in the idea of job security! Did you notice that the rate of new unemployed has not decreased? That means jobs are still being lost at the same rate!

More people unemployed and those that have been unemployed beyond the limits of unemployment insurance are going to support the econoomy how? If my business tax goes up and sales go down, I am going to do what with my employees?

Economic increase really means that the government is spending more money, right? The money that the government is spending has to come from somewhere, right?

My real question is: What do we need this government for?
Economy? Define economy, please?
Homeland Security? Define how we are secure pissing off the entire world?
Infrastucture? Have you seen any improvements or more wasted money?
Education? Good question when the local governments are considering closing down schools due to lack of money.

Excuse me? Did I say lack of money? Of course I did. We need the government for money, right? How absurd this idea becomes. Did you know, it is illegal to trade without paying a tax so we become criminals for solving our economic problems ourselves! Back to the real question: We need our federal government for what? Oh, geez, how obvious... we need the government because it spends outRAGEOUS AMOUNTS OF MONEY IT DOES NOT HAVE TO PRODUCE ANSWERS THAT DO NOT MAKE SENSE!

Unemployment is always the last indicator to come up. The rest of the economic sector goes up long before employment comes. Businesses have to be profitable for awhile before they feel comfortable enough to start hiring again.

reply to post by BEER980


Yep. The economy is improving alright, unfortunately in the direction of haves and have nots. The perfect situation for a world domination of slaves because when everything is said and done, we work for food, shelter and clothing that we are led to believe is money. Ask yourself, what does money buy? Yep.

What I find very funny is the notion of the housing market. People rent a piece of land from the government, pay outrageous sums of money to put up a structure and then lose it because they could not pay the rent. Funnier still is the number of people that borrow the money to put up these costly structures and if they can pay it back, pay what? $300,000 on a $40,000 structure? Yep.

Sometimes the only word that comes to mind when I analyze the behaviors and trends of modern people is the word: DUH.

For those relying on the current dynamics of capitalism and governmental interference, just you see this time next year. The world as you know it will be haves and have nots and unfortunately for us here on this forum, we are the have nots.

reply to post by nixie_nox


Nixie, before a business can start hiring the business must be in business. Has nothing to do with confidence in the economy. What you stated is a quote that has been used and abused for the last several months. I saw your words almost verbatum in the Chicago Tribune in May. Didn't believe it then and I do not belive it now. Do you really believe that or does it just make you feel good delivering someone else's words in order to appease your longing for someone to be ridiculously hopeful?

Confidence before they rehire. That is funny! The hopefuls forgot to take into consideration all the businesses that no longer exist. That leaves the question of who is going to do all the hiring?

reply to post by KarlG


Proof??????

New American

And the source for this article were articles from Bloomberg. The economy was far worse in 2008 than predicted. Moreover, the GDP shrank 1% and Obama is trying to spin by saying "well it was less than the 1.7% predicted!"

This tantamount to saying well the cancer in your brain is only 1 mm not 1.7 mm. It's still a tumor.

Need I drag out more proof?

reply to post by peggy m


This is fact! An abused statement. When you look at the impending commercial lending implosion unemployment is, more than likely, going to shoot over the moon!

Originally posted by KarlG
And considering it's only been what, seven months, I'm definitely happy! No sarcasm here, I'm actually glad that there are some results to come from all these policies!

"As you go into 2010, we can't just limp out of this thing, we need to be growing robustly to make sure that the unemployment rate comes down."

"What I worry more than anything about is the long-term effects because we are committing generational theft," said Senator John McCain, the Arizona Republican who ran for president against Obama last year.

"We have put trillions of additional debt on future generations of Americans. And there is no one that I know that sees a way out of it."

Geithner said the administration's first priority was to stabilize the economy but he acknowledged that the recovery will not be "strong and sustained unless we can convince the American people that we're going to have the will to bring these deficits down once recovery is firmly established."

Asked whether that meant raising taxes, Geithner said, "We're going to have to do what is necessary."

Anyway, it's about time the economy is recovering, and this news article only serves to give us hope!

What do you guys think?

You will likely not like my take on what is coming, but here it none
the less.

It has been confirmed by other news sources now that the
$134 billion in US bonds were likely real, and the japanese
men sneaking them around were likely japanese ministry of finance.

If that is true and they are trying to quietly dump them on the
market and other countries start doing it, we don't have long and
it is likely the trigger event for the Wall street journals mentioned
upcoming nationwide bank shutdown.

*** The two below say that the two japanese men stopped
with supposedly fake bonds were released...And if they
had been fake they would have broken the law and be
held on counterfeiting charges.
This says the japanese are dumping US bonds secretly
to get off the ship before it goes beneath the waves...

www.freerepublic.com...

market-ticker.denninger.net...

We saw a failure of the 5 year bond sale.

market-ticker.denninger.net...

*** Below says US foreign Embassys are being told to horde
1 years worth of non-US currency due to a possible
lengthy banking shutdown.

www.marketwatch.com...

Speaking of shutdown, 7 banks in one day went poof...

www.fdic.gov...

FDIC top level official says bank closures to increase 10 fold.

moneynews.newsmax.com...

I can see why she would say that with near 2,700 banks being
rated D+ or lower.

www.moneyandmarkets.com...

Over 1,000 Trillion in derivatives are set to implode.

theinternationalforecaster.com...

Once they monetize the debt and start printing money like mad
to buy our own debt up, they will devalue the currency and
turn the US into a modern day Zimbabwe.

They outline how this is likely to happen in these three videos.

www.youtube.com...

www.youtube.com...

www.youtube.com...

The tax revenues have dropped more than anytime since the Great Depression.

www.huffingtonpost.com...

Good Luck to you all !

[edit on 5-8-2009 by Ex_MislTech]

If you need a job, relocate to South Louisiana.

Every store on Main Street here in St. Mary Parish has a Now Hiring sign.

The problem is people no longer want to work, they're waiting for food stamps, they're waiting for the check that comes every 3rd of the month. Their just downright lazy if you ask me. I can promise you a job if you moved to St. Mary Parish tomorrow and I can promise it will sustain you for a moderate lifestyle in cajun country.

Originally posted by soultorent
If you need a job, relocate to South Louisiana.

Every store on Main Street here in St. Mary Parish has a Now Hiring sign.

The problem is people no longer want to work, they're waiting for food stamps, they're waiting for the check that comes every 3rd of the month. Their just downright lazy if you ask me. I can promise you a job if you moved to St. Mary Parish tomorrow and I can promise it will sustain you for a moderate lifestyle in cajun country.

Good information, thanks for the heads up.

I imagine the jobs don't pay real well thou.

As high as things keep heading, wages do not seem to be keeping up,
but for those with no job at all and no free money rolling in it sounds
better than nothing.

Money wise I am doing ok here, I ratholed my money while times
were good and bought my house with cash.

I have a decent paying VERY part time job right now.

I lived rough, sleeping on friends couches, renting just a room,
sharing an apt with several ppl.

I picked up a trashed house at a foreclosure sale real cheap.

Cheaper than some ppls cars.

So no credit cards, no car loans, no school loans, no home loan, etc etc.

I have stocked up for the coming crash, just like I saw the DOT COM
one coming at us.

I also saw this one coming in Oct. 2008, but I did not know when it
was gonna completely get toasted.

I thought it would start to crash in 2007, but they propped it up.

So this next crash is gonna be EPIC FAIL.

As Mr. Perkins said in his book we are headed for Hyperinflation
because it was planned that way.

And so it goes...

reply to post by peggy m


Living on the east coast I am gonna read the chicago tribune.

What it is referring to is when the economy is still staggering out of a bad economy, it can easly trip back in. So businesses big and small tend to wait to make sure there is sure footing. It is just common sense.



Many of those businesses are not coming back. It was unsustainable. Nor should they. I don't believe we should return to pre recession state of affairs, it was unsustainable. Americans do need to learn to conserve and save a little bit.

No one is proposing thigns are better now, but that the runaway freight train is grinding to a halt.

[edit on 6-8-2009 by nixie_nox]