The Worst Has Yet To Come!

I wrote this article back in 2005. It's interesting to look back at that particular timeframe and see the scam before the proverbial crap hit the fan. Back then Alan Greenspan was still this financial god that everyone on Wall Street still worshipped, and the government and the pundits were telling us that everything was great. "Go ahead, put all of your money back into the stock market, and realestate never looked better."

Though I saw the realestate bubble, I didn't comment on it within the article (you will see that it's not a short one.) It's one reason that I didn't see things getting so bad so quickly. I think that I was off by about a year or so, because I didn't grasp at the time how bad the realestate bubble actually was. You have to keep in mind that before now, a realestate bubble was practically unheard of. We were all pumped with the propaganda that you could never lose with realestate and that it never went down.

Something else to make note of: I discuss a little bit about Elliot Wave analysis in this article, in particular, the Elliot Wave that had formed from the 80's and ended this decade. You will note that an Elliot Wave consists of eight waves, five trend waves and three counter trend waves. Five waves with the trend and a, b, and c waves against the trend. There formed, in the 80's and into the last decade, a five wave uptrend that culminated in a huge fifth wave dot com bubble that started to reverse into the counter trend at the beginning of this decade (it all has to do with fractal analysis of the stock market technical analysis charts.)

Well, it seems that by my analysis, we are nearing the end of the B wave up of the counter trend, which means that we will be starting the major, and always larger, C wave down. The pundits and the Fed are trying to tell us that it's all over, but the worst is yet to come, because the C wave is always the largest wave of the counter trend. I don't see any light for years to come.. The demographic trends just don't show any hope.

Those of you who trade the markets regularly may be familiar with something called the Elliot Wave Principle. Without getting too complicated here, this principle was developed by R. N. Elliot, and is based on the nature and patterns associated with what is referred to as fractals. Fractals are naturally repeating patterns that can be observed in decreasing scale throughout an object. For instance, if you were to observe the seacoast from an airplane, you would notice certain repeating patterns throughout, and even as you got closer, you would notice smaller degrees of this same repeating pattern throughout the entire shoreline, even when you are looking at a particular small section of it. R.N. Elliot identified fractal patterns within the markets, and was able to predict with a high degree of accuracy the ebb and flow of the stock market by learning to read these fractal patterns. According to Elliot, each wave of a stock market line graph subdivides into various other waves that make up an eight-wave fractal pattern. If the wave is moving in the same direction as the wave of one larger degree, then it subdivides into five waves. If the wave is heading in the opposite direction as the wave of one larger degree, then it subdivides into three waves (denoted by the letters A, B, and C in the figure below). Each of these waves adheres to specific traits and construction, as described in Elliot Wave Principle (1978). Figure 1.2 below is an example of this pattern. (Conquer the Crash, Prechter p. 23)

It's kinda like digging up an old time capsule. It's kinda fun going back and looking at all of the lunacy. As promised, here's the article: Article

If the government wants to remove the thought of economic depressions from our minds, all they have to do is change our national economic lexicon. Like a good propagandist, if you control a people's words, then you control their thoughts, and thus their actions. Call a Spade a Club, and you can erase the last two hundred years in economic history. Call socialism capitalism, and you can install a communist dictatorship in the magical guise of free market capitalism, and the people will somehow believe that they are free. Like a cult leader, the government can brainwash millions into going along with their own destruction.

Brilliant!!...A+

...the free market is about trade and not about consumption or spending. In the real market there is no such thing as a consumer. There exists in the real world no entity that merely consumes and nothing else, except in a socialist scheme where government favors are doled out to their prisoners. If one wishes to eat in the real world, he must work, i.e., produce something by which he can barter for the food that he needs. This fallacy is further compounded by the confusion posed by the terms "supply" and "demand". Idiot economists today actually believe that "demand" is the domain of the magical consumer, while "supply" is the sole domain of large corporate monsters. Such erroneous beliefs highlight how far the propaganda matrix has gone in brainwashing society into accepting socialist and communist ideals. There is no place for the consumer in the real market, but only for real producers, who seek to trade the fruits of their labor for the goods that they need or desire.

Music to my ears!!...

And yes, many folks whom I trust (when it comes to economics) are signaling the "c" wave down by this fall/winter...

Bravo.

Right on the mark, and extremely informative. A must read.

S&F

Fantastic, well thought out article! I have bookmarked your article and I will read it several more times.....soooo much info.

reply to post by RolandBrichter

And yes, many folks whom I trust (when it comes to economics) are signaling the "c" wave down by this fall/winter...

Message: Peter Elidades , author of Stock Market Cycles comments on Puetz crash Peter Elidades, author of Stock Market Cycles.

"A study was completed by Steven Puetz (pronounced Pitts) showing that 8 of the 12 greatest stock market crashes in history from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 to the Tokyo crash in 1990 fell within a time frame of six days before to three days after a full moon (usually also a lunar eclipse) that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse. The odds of this happening by chance are estimated to be less than one chance in 127,000."

It is my understanding that this lunar eclipse time period usually marks the onset of the crash wave, which usually takes a week or two to fully unfold, and the worst day of the crash does not usually fall on these few days around the full moon. In fact, Chris Carolan, has shown that it is more likely to occur approximately 55 hours prior to the following new moon. Yesterday, we had a full moon which was also a lunar eclipse and occurred two weeks after a solar eclipse. We had the same setup in 1987 where the market started tanking right on the 10/6 lunar eclipse following the solar eclipse but did not all-out crash until 13 days later, just before the new moon. source

Now, given that we are nearing the end of a "B" wave, about to begin a huge "C" wave down, according to Elliot Wave Principle, and nearing the blow off phase of the Kondratieff cycle, we should expect a big crash soon. Historically, they have come in the Spring and Fall months of the year, such as October and May (October 29, 1929, September 11, 2001, etc.) Infact, the abover source predicted the major market movements surrounding Sept. 11th!

Ok, now we have the astrolog information above, interesting, eh? Well guess what we just so happen to have coming up very soon? You guessed it, a Solar eclipse followed by a lunar eclipse within six weeks of each other. On July 22, we will have a full solar eclipse, followed by a lunar eclipse on August 6th! And if you read the quote above, you know that 55 hours prior to the following new moon can spell certain doom. That new moon is on August 20th.

[edit on 16-7-2009 by HothSnake]

reply to post by HothSnake


Simply amazing. Great post! I'm going back to re-read so I can absorb everything properly. Thank you. Ahll Be Bhaack -

great post... sums it up perfectly.

it is not often that i find a thread like this with some information that is backed by history and some rather intriguing astronomical data

i have had a glass of wine...and a tylenol pm.....so perhaps that is keeping me from trying to poke holes in the 1 out 100,000 plus figure estimated.....and the "accuracy of the estimation" which i have questions about . Regardless i have been saying that i think the market will tank in the fall (when 3'rd Q and 4Q earings don't "beat the street") because they will have to be more than "less bad" and actually increase (because that is what is forecast) now and baked into any stock market "recovery".

so it may be worth watching the dates..