A/H1N1 (swine flu) hot zone mortality rates are over 1%, millions will die soon

reply to post by apacheman


It was one more sentence down.

June 26

Anne Schuchat, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC told a news briefing.

"Reported cases are really just the tip of the iceberg," she said of the roughly 287,000 confirmed cases of (A)H1N1 flu in the United States.

Around 3,000 people infected with swine flu in the United States have had to be hospitalized and 127 people are reported to have died.

I've no axe to grind either. On the contrary, I applaud your research. There is too little of it on ATS lately.

My point was that so many numbers are being tossed about in various reports it makes it all but impossible to get a grip on the actual death rate. Let alone start proclaiming that millions will die soon.

Same link example

A community survey conducted in New York City, where the CDC believes there have been half a million cases of (A)H1N1, showed 6.9 percent of residents experienced flu-like illness during a three week period in May, Schuchat said.

"From their virologic testing, they knew that most of that influenza-like illness was based on this new H1N1 strain, and from that, they estimated that around half a million New York City residents may have been infected with this new virus... without necessarily seeking care," Schuchat said.

reply to post by makeitso


She was misquoted.

Here's what she really said:

The novel H1N1 influenza is continuing to spread here in the United States and around the globe. What we're seeing is varying by region in the United States and in different countries. The key point is that this new infectious disease is not going away. In the U.S., we're still experiencing a steady increase in the number of reported cases. Of course, reported cases are really just the tip of the iceberg. The number of new cases that were reported to us this past week was actually the largest number we've had reported since the beginning of the outbreak. Today, we're describing the 27,717 lab-defined cases have been reported to us here in the U.S., including over 3,000 hospitalizations and 127 fatalities. There were more than 6,000 of these cases reported to us within this past week. W.H.O. is now reporting almost 60,000 cases of this new virus in more than 100 countries and they report being aware of 263 deaths. Here in the U.S., 12 states are reporting widespread influenza activity, those include Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Utah and Virginia. And you'll notice some of those states have been having widespread activity for a while and some of the states that had widespread activity a while ago, like Texas or California, aren't actually on that list right now. It's very unusual for this time of year to still be having so many states reporting regional and widespread activity and that's just one feature that helps us know that what we're seeing this year is quite different than what we usually see with seasonal influenza.

Nowhere in that briefing was the figure 287,000 used, although the number 27,000 is repeated. I think it was a reporter's goof of hitting the eight and seven keys close together.

See for yourself:

www.cdc.gov...

Wow, thats one heck of a typo, and it was not in just one article it was all over the web.

But it looks like you are right.
Check it out.

WASHINGTON (AFP)

There have been roughly 287,000 confirmed cases of A(H1N1) flu in the United States, around 3,000 people have been taken to hospital and 127 people are reported to have died, the CDC said.

VS

"Reported cases are really just the tip of the iceberg," said Schuchat, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, of the roughly 28,000 confirmed cases of A(H1N1) flu in the United States.

I stand corrected.

Originally posted by Studenofhistory
Are you serious?

What's the mortality rate of ordinary flu? I wouldn't be surprised if it's higher than one percent. Your simplistic assumption is that everyone will get infected. That is not only unlikely, it's actually impossible considering how isolated some populations are. The 1918 spanish flu was far more deadly and the plagued that swept thru Europe had mortality rates estimated as high as 70%. 1% is nothing.

1. It is estimated that the Black Plague killed roughly 75 million people.
www.livescience.com...

2. Experts predict that swine flu will likely infect 30% of the world's population.
www.atomicmpc.com.au...

3. The world contains roughly 6.7 billion people
www.census.gov...

4. 1% would be approximately 67 million people

Can you please explain to me how 1% is nothing? Moreover, if that percentage increases above 1% ever so slightly we are talking about millions more dying.

The spanish flu did not have the benefit of a much denser population who routinely engage in high speed commercial air travel. It too began as a much more mild illness that would later mutate.





[edit on 6-7-2009 by andrewh7]

[edit on 6-7-2009 by andrewh7]

OK- throwing my hat in the ring (tired and my math may be off here- so go easy on me)

We've all posted articles from CDC that say that the estimate is that 1,000,000 people in the US ALONE are likely to have H1N1:

www.healthcentral.com...

So if the ~0.5% mortality rate that is floating around as conservative is applied, then we should have about 5,000 deaths in the US by now- but only around 180-200 have been reported.

NOW-Is CDC changing its tune and saying some 280,000-ish people are infected, rather than 1,000,000? Then, that would put the mortality rate (again, at 0.46% rounded to 0.5% for ease of math) at around 1,400 deaths.

Either way- the death rate is being under-reported if it's around 0.46% fatal, and if CDC is reporting anything CLOSE to reality- just in the US?!?!?!?
If we apply conservative mortality rates from South America (say, between 1% and 1.5%,) we would see (in the US, and based on the two CDC figures published):
between 10,000 and 15,000 deaths if 1,000,000 Americans are infected, or between 2,800 and 4,200 deaths if some 280,000-ish Americans are infected.

And yet- still- CDC says "only" some 180 or so Americans have died of H1N1 flu. Nothing adds up. No one is telling the truth. No one is reporting flu deaths (they're cardiopulmonary failure; pneumonia; exacerbation of obesity or diabetes; asthma-related ARDS; name your malady.....). We need TRUE death certs; true reporting-

My husband said this pandemic might be called "The Silent Flu" because no one is talking about it- telling the truth- reporting the facts. I'm beginning to believe him.

PS- edit my math if I'm mistaken.

Peace

EDIT:
If CDC's "typo" applies- take a zero off the numbers above and you've still got far more deaths from flu than are reported to have occurred in the US- let alone elsewhere.




[edit on 6-7-2009 by CultureD]

reply to post by CultureD

Your math is correct, it matches mine...I fear the numbers are indeed under-reported. One set of numbers or the other is off.

Update on mortality:

Argentina: 2.4%, 60 out of 2485.

Health officials say the toll could be higher.

www.nasdaq.com... u-reach-60

reply to post by apacheman


Well, then we all need to open our eyes, because these numbers are of more than a little concern.

And yet-in Chicago, in a state with one of the highest infection rates in the US, we're hearing NOTHING on the local news- nothing on the MSM- and the only source of info is the web- mainly out-of-country sites or very small, local affiliates that report on a death in a small town.

Good news: There's a new rapid H1N1 test coming out of Singapore that can ID the strain in 2 hours- hopefully that technology will help TPTB scale-up the numbers.

Or- it will indeed be a "solent flu" as my husband predicted- and the world wll blythely watch Michael Jackson videos while mass graves are dug and tens or hundreds of millions of people die.

When the stores stop stocking movies, electronics, FOOD, etc., because too many people are ill to run cargo ships or trucks, SOMEONE might look up from her/his Sudoku and notice something is happening....

Hi guys new here but not new to investigating ET lol, swine flu is bioengineered for one specific reason and that is to cull the human population. Most of us will already be carrying this virus which on its own is quite harmless, that is why all the doors where left open for it to spread. It will be the trigger that will kill most people and it will be either by vaccination or more likely by chem. spraying. Anyone with O,A, or especially AB negative blood groups are safe, but do not panic if you are in the positive group as it will be down to your antigen type, the trigger is set to a certain molecular genotype which I believe is targeted mainly at the Asian population. This is why I believe large amounts of money was spent on the bloodgen project not for as they state (to save a few lives) due to rare blood group antigens becoming alloimmunised due to transfusion but for research into antigens for the trigger to activate their bio weapon. If you research all the IPCC reports you will notice that due to future weather (global warming ) the Asian content will be worst affected in the near future, this will leave the population only one way out and that is mass migration north, the problem is that the north will not have enough resources to accommodate and feed them so as stated in the IPCC report the northern borders will be closed and defended, oops big problem for the western world until some psychopath decided to use a bio weapon .

We're halfway through Winter here in Australia and I'm surprised that the death rates are quite low.
Only 2 Swine Flu related deaths here in my State (NSW).
The positive thing about Winter is that people are staying at home and indoors because it's so cold.
Therefore , there is less chance of this spreading via community contact.
In warmer months, Aussies are more inclined to get out and about for activities that involve crowds and it would be easier for the Swine Flu to spread.
So maybe it's a good thing that's it's Winter. Statistically speaking.

reply to post by hyundisonata


Please stay on topic: A/H1N1 mortality rates.

I've asked folks who want to talk about bio-engineering, bad vaccines, consipiracies to cull, blah, blah, blah, to go elsewhere.

Stick to verifiable facts relating to mortality rates, please, or I'll ask the mods to delete you.

Thanks for your understanding and cooperation.

I am trying to keep this thread as factual as possible.

reply to post by Flighty


Thank you, your report helps.

Do you have any links to published stats locally?

Can yo amplify your observations?

Thanks.

Originally posted by apacheman
One thing I'm pretty sure of is that the mortality rate is going to be a lot higher than the 0.43% forecast.

Remember these are using mortality numbers that are most likely under-reported. Factor in economic and medical collapse, and I'm not sure I want to know the number. Add in secondary effects and this could be unimaginably bad.

Also remember, that mild to moderate cases would be far, far more under reported than deaths. Most mild to moderate cases wouldn't even see a doctor, so they would not become part of the "official" figures. Most likely, making the mortality rate lower.

Here in NZ, we have had 3 deaths linked to H1N1 (not confirmed though) and we have had close to a thousand confirmed cases. Realistically, the amount of cases could be 10 to 20 times this amount, as people are no longer being tested to confirm H1N1 (unless there are other serious factors), as most cases have been relatively mild, with some describing it as no worse than the common cold.

This would lower the mortality rate considerably, quite likely in the 0.1% range, if not lower. We are in the middle of winter, and it does not appear to have hit any harder, although there is the possibility it could get worse. But at this stage, I am unafraid of contracting swine(/bird/human) flu. Well, it might even do my immune system some good.

It seems a lot of people are trying to find any info which makes the swine flu seem worse than it actually is. It's important to keep vigilant, and be prepared for potential disaster, but I also think it's important to keep your head screwed on and look at this pandemic for what it really is, and not panic unnecessarily.

reply to post by apacheman


Sure. Here's a link.

New South Wales records it's first Swine Flu death.
www.abc.net.au...

That was from the 2nd July. I heard on the radio yesterday that there has been another death, so that's 2 so far. We are 5 weeks into Winter here.

reply to post by Curious and Concerned


I agree with your assessment that the infection rate is higher than reported. I think the mortality rate is under-reported, too. That's why I'm concentrating on reported hot zones. If anything really bad is happening it will show up there first. Also, if it is abating, then that will show up there, too.

I'm not particularly fearful for myself, standard precautions at this point should suffice. But if the hot zone numbers go up, I want to know as soon as humanly possible, and I want to know why.

the infection rate is definitely higher than reported. I know three families in NYC and CT that had it - all the kids in each family.

My sister works for a large, well known, cancer hospital here in NYC and they had a staffwide briefing on the swine flu and they basically said that anyone walking around with the flu had a strain of the swine flu. plain and simple, it is uncommon to get the flu this time of year and most cases are so mild that many people don't even know they have it. what they fear most is that, in the fall, when the flu season really begins, if the swine flu blows up on us, like they expect, many people will think "oh, had it, been there, done that" etc and not worry about it as the strain they had over the summer was so mild that it was barely noticeable.

That's when the deaths could become biblical.

That said, using the current ration of deaths to cases is not exactly reasonable. NYC has 1.76% now but that might be a result of stupidity. So many people get sick and ignore it. So many doctors are blase about this that kids wind up sicker.

One of the families I know that had it, the first kid to get it was sick as a dog and the doctor said "no biggie, it's a virus, it's going around" etc so the parents did nothing. The kid wound up with pneumonia on top of swine flu. Seems the whole town was sick with Capt.Trips.

My niece was sick for a few days and my sister, who's rather laid back with these things, did nothing. Her daughter wound up with high fever and the doctor said "it's going around."
my sister then got sick. "It's going around" she was told.

My mother finally made them both go visit the doctor.

Strep for my sister. My niece? fever gone but she's still coughing.

I'd have demanded tests.

Friday 10 July 2009 Hot Zone report:

Argentina: 3.1%, 82 of 2677

www.portalangop.co.ao...

Colombia: 1.7%, 2 out 118

Costa Rica: 1.1%, 3 out of 277

Domincan Republic: 1.9%, 2 out of 108

Guatemala: 0.7%, 2 out of 286

Honduras: 0.8%, 1 out of 123

Mexico, 1.2%, 119 out fo 10262

Paraguay: 0.9%, 1 out of 106

Uruguay: 2.1%, 4 out of 195

Arizona: 1.4%, 11 out 762

California: 1.3%, 31 out of 2461

Michigan: 1.6%, 8 out of 489

Missouri: 1.5%, 1 out of 68

New Jersey: 0.8%, 10 out of 1289

New York: 2.0%, 52 out of 2582

Ohio: 0.7%, 1 out of 147

Oklahoma: 0.7%, 1 out of 150

Oregon: 1.0%, 4 out of 403

Rhode Island: 1.1%, 2 out of 177

Utah: 1.5%, 14 out of 953

Virginia: 0.7%, 2 out of 306

Aggregate hot zone mortality rate: 1.4%

reply to post by makeitso


The fact that the typo is all over the place simply means that the same source article was reprinted over and over again. This is the problem with news aggregators. AP will post and article and within an hour it's on every new site on the web and it's all the SAME article.

I think there are news reports that confirm what we're discussing:

The Argentine Health minister resigned-uproar over his ineffectiveness to stop the outbreak.
Breazil and Chile are discussing the closure of certain border regions with Argentina, in order to slow the tide of infection.
The poorest regions in BA are the most ill in Argentina- as were in Mexico, and indeed, globally.

South America, both asa Continent and as individual countries have declared varying states of emergency- schools are remaining closed for longer periods of time; non-essential med procedures are cancelled, as beds are needed; there are not enough respirators (nor are there in Canada, a country desperately trying to acquire more in advance of the flu season)----and the most telling to me: the rates of seasonal flu are being outpaced by novel flu infections in nearly every country reporting stats.

Last I read in a california paper, 90% of flu patients have H1N1 and not a seasonal flu- and it's not flu season here, so one can only imagine the rates in the S. Hemisphere.

Man-made or naturally reassorted- this flu IS going to kill a lot of people- most areas are going about thier business as though nothing were wrong- to my amazement- and all the sports events, concerts, etc., will be a special bioreactor for mutations- the very thing that could take us to 2.5% mortality.

I live in an affluent Chicago suburb and have a medical test next week, for which I've had to wait 2 months, due to flu patients needing the physicians, nurses, techs, beds, etc. I can only imagine what it must be like in areas where getting penicillin for a sinus infection is nearly impossible.

Just my two cents tonight- take good care everyone.

reply to post by apacheman


Yes, those figures are scary, but we all have to die of something - wars, disease, age, you know, I don't think it is all that scary compared to wars, which are the scourge of the planet.

What's the infection rate? 0.1%?