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Originally posted by waveguide3
For any geomagnetic disturbance caused by a solar flare, the flare must have left the sun four days earlier. We get a four day warning if a mass ejection will hit the Earth. 99% of SME's never come near the Earth. They have to be ejected at exactly the right angle to impinge with the our manetosphere. There will be no events on 7/8 July because nothing of significance happened on the sun on 3/4 July. Not directed at us anyway.
WG3
Originally posted by Cmdraleon
reply to post by questioningall
I believe a cosmic message is being given to us .
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 1024
(S27W13) produced a C2/Sf flare at 05/0713Z, as well as frequent
B-class flares. Minor changes were observed in the region since its
rapid emergence yesterday. It retained a beta magnetic structure
with some polarity mixing evident in its intermediate spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is also a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1024.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels throughout the forecast period (06 -
08 July).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 072
Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 05 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
SUDDEN SUNSPOT: What a difference 48 hours can make. Only two days ago the sun was blank and calm, displaying the sort of unrelenting quiet we've come to expect from the deepest solar minimum in a century. Then, with startling rapidity, sunspot 1024 burst onto the scene: movie. Unlike other recent "sun-specks", this active region is a full-fledged sunspot group with more than a dozen planet-sized dark cores, crackling with B- and C-class solar flares.
"Sunspot 1024 is putting on a spectacular show," says amateur astronomer David Tyler of Buckinghamshire UK, who caught it in mid-flare on July 5th:
"This is the best sunspot I've seen in two years," agrees Michael Buxton of Ocean Beach, California. "Here is a one-hour time lapse movie of activity in the sunspot's core. It is exciting to watch."
The magnetic polarity of sunspot 1024 identifies it as a member of new Solar Cycle 24. That makes sense. New research shows that solar jet streams are beginning to stimulate new-cycle sunspot production. Sunspot 1024 appears to be a sign of the process at work, heralding more to come. Monitoring is encouraged.