It's Becoming Increasing Messy In Iran

It's Becoming Increasing Messy In Iran

www.poligazette.com

The timing of it is rather unexpected, but it seems that a true revolution is taking place in Iran. Many commentators and politicians, President Obama first and foremost, have insisted in recent weeks that the difference between Ahmadinejad and Mir Hossein Moussavi is neglectible, but Iranians seem to strongly disagree on that. This battle is not between one group of extremists and another, it is between those who want reforms, more freedom, etc. and those who want to continue the status quo.

(visit the link for the full news article)

I feel this news article represents a good overall picture on what's been going on in Iran. Unfortunately our mainstream media can only concentrate on individual facts at hand, which can be in short supply due to the lack of official news coverage allowed there, and so they either have not yet produced a true analysis of the overall situation or don't yet see the importance yet to do this as they may not be entirely convinced a full blown revolution is taking place.

In my opinion even when BBC Persia talks about re-count and the guardian council investigating as an option, I feel it is too late for that. Khaminei has already rejected these as options and begun massacring his people. The last thing on Iranian protestors people's minds now is a re-count, they want Khaminei to be punished for his crimes against humanity.

It is also important that we don't associate Persians and Arabs as the same, and that we do have confirmed reports of the basij thugs having arabic origins, as the reports state that they don't speak Farsi.

Therefore this is becoming a war between these arab militias such as Hezbollah brought in from Lebanon and the arab militias based in terrorist training camps in Iran, to back up the failing and miserable Khaminei regime and parts of the revolutionary guard (as a large number of Iranian police just don't want to murder their own people), versus revolutionary guards who may switch sides away from the regime and possibly the Iranian army who have yet to really get involved, and of course the majority of young Iranian people who are children of the Islamic revolution from 1979, and are protesting often with their own children, and also some of the older generations who have had enough as well.

Today even the mullahs who have deserted Khamenei to join protests which have been less organised today have been shot at by the basij. Don't let this make you think the revolution is finished, they will likely regroup for further protests tomorrow and of course tuesday is confirmed to be a day of national strike.

They won't have the strength to protest strongly every day, although many clashes will resume at later dates.

If the oil workers strike, the regime's funding is cut dramatically and I put an estimates of a week before it begins to damage the regime. But the oil workers may not strike, we'll just have to see. Alternatively we could look at boycotting Iranian oil temporarily, but that would mean the UN and getting the West involved which is not a preferred option yet.

Obama did warn Iran on Saturday to stop the killing, does this mean he would be willing to go and request the UN boycotts Iranian oil, or just write a nasty letter to Khaminei?

Also unconfirmed reports of airports shutting today which I said would likely happen on a previous thread. We have to see if that's confirmed later.

Also in my opinion I see (yet unconfirmed reports) that a few top army commanders inevitably will revolt and joining the people if the killing goes on. Many protestors again are likely to have been killed today, but we'll stay away from figures for Sunday until they are confirmed. Although Satuday's figures for Tehran could be as high as 150, and a few hundred from other cities.

Even 1 death is too high! When this army revolt may happen is anyone's guess, and I would say it depends what the regime chooses to do next, which I'm guessing will be to attack protestors again and strongly protect state tv station buildings. Whether tanks come into play again is yet unknown.

IMHO I reckon with this possible army revolt and possible revolutionary guards to switch sides as well this would help finish off Khamenei, as his main backing in terms of military strength would then oppose him. We will have to see if any such development occurs.

Twitter reported that the tanks did go into Tehran last night, but later left, and were controlled by the revolutionary guards. I don't know what to make of this, how much of these reports are true. But there were 2 other website sources in Farsi, so in my opinion that could be what happened.

If this means tanks will later roll back in Tehran or not is anyone's guess, and whether this will lead to an all out clash between parts of the army and ordinary Iranian's with parts of the militia and possibly loyal members of the army is also anyone's guess. Could we see tanks vs tanks fighting on the streets of Tehran? Or, whether there is a more peaceful way to plausibly solve this, is also up for discussion.

I see many people crying out for sources all the time, but I'm sorry we don't always have many or at times none at all except twitter, and Farsi sites. We just don't have any western media sources able to corroborate this until much later. The BBC and Sky in the UK have only just got round to reporting the many deaths from yesterday, and haven't got up to speed with that even in my opinion.

But the more you study the twitter comments, you more adept you become at picking out the comments most likely to be true and from Iran, and you also learn more about regime tactics that are used constantly as attempts (becoming more failed) to misinform us with propaganda.

www.poligazette.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

[edit on 21-6-2009 by john124]

Just started new thread where Iranian guardian council admits that over 100% voter turnout in some areas, therefore admitting election results a sham.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

The Tweet Revolution will be a victory. I can feel it.