On the North Korean Situation

DPRK is doing exactly what is best for them. They mainly only manufacture military hardware and right now atomic weapons and missile systems are the hot selling big ticket items. Here is the situation IMO.

NK cannot lose unless they are pounded into oblivion and that is unlikely to happen, very highly unlikely IMO, no matter what happens. There is nothing but positive results for them aside from that unlikely scenario.

NK has China standing behind them...yes China isn't all that thrilled over NK, but they are not about to throw them to the wolves either. NK of course knows this. The USA or South Korea will not pre-emptively first strike because of this alliance with China, we probably wouldn't in any case under Obama no matter what provocative acts NK commits including troop deployments, nuclear bombs being hot tested, missile launches etc etc...and in fact of course we have done nothing other than whine to the UN about tellin em to quit it. We have not even engaged in any aggressive diplomacy and do not even have a high level state dept official assigned and confirmed to carry out diplomatic missions with NK.

So in that situation the current actions of NK suit several purposes for NK. One they are now being recognized as a nuclear armed nation, that is an elite club. There was speculation and doubt as to whether the 2006 test was successful, faked, or to what degree successful if it was. As far as I can tell this latest test has erased all doubt, if it hasn't? the next one which I predict will happen shortly, will. You cannot move 15,000+ tons of explosive to a test facility and generate a 4.5 mag EQ and not have it seen by the worlds many satellites. In case no one has noticed the last test we had much forewarning and lot's of heavy trucks were seen entering and leaving the test site and this time there was zero activity of that nature. So Kim has put NK on the map as a nation that possesses atomic bombs and as I said if there any doubt remaining, there won't be soon. So with that? he elevated himself several links up the geo-political foodchain and even more so on the worlds military hardware arms dealers ladder.

So then Kim shoots off a half dozen heavy missiles. Just to show he can and to more or less say # you to anyone who cares and wouldn't want him to. It also demonstrates that he has enough of those missiles to not be concerned with lighting several off and has the confidence in the weapons systems to do so when he chooses to.

In a nutshell as far as that aspect is concerned he knows he has the Dragon behind him and nothing will happen as long as he only tests and shows off his weapons systems and nobody will attack him for it. Even if he does get sanctioned that will do little if China does not participate in those sanctions which they have always been hesitant to or have refused to do. So all America will do is scold him and there won't be any punishment that will really bother him.

The second non military aspect and positive gain for NK and Kim is that America and the west are demonstrated to be more or less powerless to stop anyone including, critical point here, including but limited to North Korea from doing what NK is doing right now. We did virtually nothing when NK launched a long range ballistic missile over Japan into the pacific. I seriously doubt there was ever any satellite and that launch was a second stage boost test and was a successful one, my opinion there. The entire world watches the reaction of the west and America especially when these these events happen and they will be watching for next months to see our posturing. I suspect that posturing will remain as weak as it currently is and was/is on par with reaction to the long range missile launch. In this second aspect there are many nations that will feel far more comfortable in making a business transaction with either the DPRK or other nations that wish to trade arms and weapons related technology with other countries or even organizations that would feel they were taking a far larger risk in doing so in the past. In essence? Kim has created a much more open market for weapons systems by demonstrating that he can use his own and not face harsh repercussions. He also generates an increased need by creating the atmosphere that "Rogue Nations" such as himself can launch missiles and blow up atomic bombs so not only does he take away some fear of repercussion? he increases the need for what he wishes to sell by his own actions. Kind of like a burglar alarm salesman busting a window in your house and showing up to sell you a security system soon after.

In summation he creates the need, opens up the market and demonstrates what he has to offer for that market. Major players on the world scene have his back so nobody will bully him as long as he doesn't over step too bad...and of course...those same players sell goods in the same market, so all this is good business for everyone...as far as the international arms trade is concerned anyway. Kim is a nut and nuts either scare people or become an excuse for arming up. As long as he doesn't really hurt anyone?...he is allowed to slide along. That trade is always a two edged sword....you don't want to arm other people as well as you are armed because they might attack you one day, so the balance is one that the most well armed try to keep balanced, not always easy to do, but something for discussion another day. However regarding North Korea and the family dynasty? there is much more involved than just the arms dealing aspect behind Kim's actions....

Kim Jongs father Kim sung was the first leader of North Korea. He was a Hero among the people, he liberated the North from Colonial Japanese rule in there eyes, he also waged the first war of re-unification which many historians believe was not all that unpopular with many of the South Koreans who were not too happy with the west (USA) re-installing some of past landowners, police and various cronies into positions of power and taking much of the power away from the local communist committees. Kim led an army from the North which was armed by the then Soviet union to recapture the capitol in the South...Seoul. He was successful, the fledgling North Korean army occupied Seoul and also occupied most of the south. This war of re-unification or civil war was also known as the "Korean war"

China was not very thrilled with the prospect of a reunited Korea, but Kim convinced China by telling them his actions were approved by Stalin himself, but actually he took the initiative personally. Stalins intel had assessed that the US would likely not intervene, it was wrong. The US and UN forces re-took Seoul and Kim's army fled to China, then after several warnings to US/UN to halt it's advance. China flooded thousands of soldiers to assist the NK army and took Seoul back. After that the US/UN opened a new offensive and took Seoul back again. It went back and forth several times during the conflict. Things eventually settled down and the current dividing line we know today was established and an armistice was reached, but not before 50,000+ American lives were lost as well as over 3 million Korean lives. The North was devastated by bombing campaigns and Kim and his army went back to Pyongyang and began to rebuild what little was left of an economy and country. Kim Sung was a hero to the people and was the leader of North Korea from before the war and remained the leader until he died in 1994 at the age of 82. His son Kim Jong il took over officially in 1992 and was running much of govt before that, but Kim Sung was technically still the "Dear leader" until he died.

During the reign of Kim Sung the DPRK became increasingly more isolated from it's communist sponsors. Kim Sung did not like the reform policies of the Soviet leaderships and he felt China was an unreliable ally. He went back and forth between loyalties with both his communist neighbors depending on who's policies he felt were the most Orthodox communist as he believed himself to be. In the 60's when China and Russia more or less parted ways Kim would swing toward allegiance with one, while never completely severing ties with the other and this gave him constant support to some degree, but never really got him the firm backing that might have allowed North Korea to prosper further.

I wanted to give some history in short form because many people do not know the history of Kim and his father and it is important as it relates to Kim Jong Il's mindset. Which brings me to the second aspect of Kim's current actions and which is the wildcard in this whole North Korean scenario that is being played out and which no intelligence analyst can decipher or account for because it is all in Kim Jong Il's own mind and Psychology. Will he wage a war for re-unification of Korea again? no one knows but him...but could he? and would be successful in light of current events and current climate...IMO if he did undertake this action? He would be sucessful....

First of all the DPRK has virtually been built, from a military standpoint, to invade and or assault South Korea. They have literally thousands of hardened underground facilities all within very close proximity and within striking distance of the Armistice line and the Demilitarized zone. Within 100 miles of the DMZ the DPRK has over 4,000 hardened bases, 170 divisions of infantry, mechanized infantry, tank divisions, artillery divisions and special forces. Over 12,000 proven artillery systems including anti-aircraft, hundreds of mobile multiple rocket systems, 2,000+ tanks, 750+ aircraft and aprox 700,000 soldiers all deployed within that distance, many closer. He also has several short, medium and long range missile systems all well within striking distance. Over half of the entire North Korean military is deployed in forward position. What this means? The DPRK could strike South Korea at virtually anytime very swiftly and without notice and most importantly...without re-deploying any troops or moving a single piece of hardware from where they are right now, until the assault is committed to and then the movement of all of the above becomes part of the assault. The DPRK is poised to attack, they always have been, it is how most if not all of their entire military industrial complex is set up and this is nothing new. They may move a few thousand troops around here and there, but their deployment of major forces has always been forward and as close to the line as they could be.

Now we have a newly added piece of ordinance in the North Korean arsenal, Atomic bombs. Likely Kim posses about 6 of them and most intelligence annalists agree at about this number but even it were 2? it really wouldn't change the situation all that much, but 6 is about a reasonable number IMO, perhaps 4 after testing, but as I said, it doesn't change the hand all that much. Nuclear weapons are rarely used in strategy as an offensive weapon. In todays day and age they are used as a defensive weapon or the more common concept as a deterrent weapon/option. No one who doesn't want to get nuked in return nukes another country first if they possess atomic weapons and if they do not? well there really isn't any need to nuke them unless they posses an overwhelming force and intend to annihilate your country conventionally or create a massive causality war which you wish to avoid at all cost and risk....there is always risk involved of deploying a nuclear weapon even in self defense because the tend to piss a lot of people due to their inherent messiness...fallout, cancer and so forth. So an atomic weapon is really a weapon of last resort in all cases.

Kim has military strategists and some very educated people around him so he knows all the ramifications involving his new atomic weapons as well as use of his entire military. He is not all that bad of a strategist as you may be beginning to see if an Assault on South Korea is his objective and up until now? I would have said myself that it would be a suicide mission even if the DPRK had a more formidable force, but now with the addition of the nuclear arsenal? I am not so sure it would be....

One thing about Atomic weapons besides there destructive force is the extreme psychological force they also inherently possess. Blinding flash, people melted in extreme heat, waves of intense radiation mutating and cooking people, clouds of cancerous radioactive fallout truly creating a horror of horrors. All of that true, but the radius of fear surpasses the actual effective radius of the weapon itself. This huge impact of psychology is not such a bad force multiplyer...it also works very very well in swaying public opinion to side of absolute aversion to ever using such a weapon...or....ever forcing some other country to use one if it was not absolutely necessary to stave off whatever could possibly be worse....which brings me to my Kim attack on South Korea war of re-unification battle plan....and it's not too difficult to see where this is going...or shouldn't be by now.

Initial assault with currently forward deployed missiles, rocket batteries and artillery on defensive forces along the DMZ. The DPRK can sustain a rate of fire of 500,000 rounds per hour for several hours from currently deployed artillery and rocket batteries without moving a single piece of weaponry anything more than a negligible distance and only to gain clear target acquisition. After pouring on as much ordinance in as short as period of time as possible, perhaps an hour at most, while defending their own positions and advancing batteries forward entire divisions of mechanized infantry and tank battalions advance to the line and by then most of the defensive forces would be overwhelmed and overtake with a force roughly half the size deployed in the immediate vicinity, about 300,000 infantry and advance toward Seoul Simultaneously shelling the city with a far lighter artillery barrage but still doing immense damage to infrastructure and command and control. Occupy and capture as much of Seoul as possible and further move up reinforcements from the 400,000 or so strong remaining divisions and split off a large force from your central legions and repeat assault and capture of the city of Incheon which is a mere 20 miles away. By the time the defense forces could react to such a Blitzkrieg like assault and deploy reinforcements you have captured and occupied the two cities and destroyed and demoralized the defenders if only temporarily but you have the time to deploy your nuclear weapons...which you do...one in Seoul, one in Incheon, the remainder if any along the path back to pongyang....then you announce, "The peoples army has routed the western usurpers from the southern portion of the Korean homeland and any attempt to intervene in this internal matter of Korean statehood by any nation will result in the detonation of an Atomic Bomb in either one or both of the 2 cities. Have a nice #in day" Then you let it be known that you have several other Atomic bombs deployed along the path back and if any Yankee invaders try and push you back? they will be nuked. You also use your deployed forces to occupy the sounding areas and secure the cities as soon as possible....but your trump card has already been played, you have an atomic bomb now and if anyone attacks?....Nuke city.

Now China would not be very happy about Kim invading South Korea. He does have contact and relations with China and while China would probably be very upset about this, if there was an excuse, some deemed act of aggression on the part of the west, some naval scuffle perhaps, they likely would be a whole lot less pissed off about it and would understand if only to a minor degree that North Korea wanted to save face. Although China would not be at all happy...what would they actually do about it? What would the world do about it? Will the world risk that you won't set off an atomic bomb in a city that you just occupied? Will Obama a new president with barely any experience? The world already thinks you are a nut, you have already gone to great lengths....or really we have, to portray yourself as such and that reputation is as well known as anyone's is. How many across the world would even commit to risk a conventional war? and one that certainly would be very bloody and likely drawn out and one that raises the very real specter of becoming a WORLD WAR involving China, maybe Russia, a war that could escalate into a global thermonuclear war? over South Korea?......How many would say, "Sorry guys, but this just isn't worth it. You are all Koreans and we're just gonna let the UN sort this out, it's what they're for"....

So now...if you made it this far reading this, put yourself in Kim's position. His health is failing, he is dying, he doesn't really have an established successor in a powerful position of leadership for any length of time. His two oldest sons of 3 whom he wished to take over crapped out and were caught up in scandalous activities such as going to Disney land and rock concerts while abroad. Delving into Western cultures and since have been demoted. Kim's youngest son...Kim Jong-un a mere 26 years old was just appointed to a very powerful position in the National Defense Commission the most powerful decision making body in the country and is said to be being groomed for the position of leader, but due to his age and lack of experience he is vulnerable to an internal power struggle between brothers, the military generals or both and very well could face a coup or possible external overthrow attempt. Kim is very much aware of this.

So with all that Legacy, the family ruling North Korea since it was truly North Korea, your father a hero of the people, a war hero and it all seems to be in jepordy....but what if you could restore the great divide that was always your fathers dream to do, to re-unite Korea. You would possibly even surpass his glory. Your son would be cemented in a position of leadership and honor forever as you would be. Your dynasty would be intact and your legacy of greatness would be set upon the world for all eternity.

Of course in real life the South Koreans would hate your Communist guts and you'd never be able to hold the countries together and nobody would trade jack squat with the new unified Communist Korea and would fail and do so epically in short order...but you don't think that....because you're a #ed up dude who very likely believes that he will be welcomed as a hero and a liberator...now where have I heard that before......

Will Kim go for it?...time will tell...but I believe he is thinking about it....a lot...

Maybe Korea wants to tell the world they opened shop.

New missiles up for sale. Come in and get yours at a discounted price.

reply to post by Mexican against NAU


Okay, I am on it.

Can we have the Spark-Notes' version? Bullet points? Thesis statement clearly stated first-thing, or in the first paragraph. That is a lot for plucky to ingest.

www.youtube.com...

i read the entire thing, very informative S&F.

just a thought, perhaps since both Kim jong il and his father where war hero's in the eyes of the people, what better way to make a country accept his young sons rule than to attack SK and make a war hero out of the youngest son.

seems like he personally has more to gain than lose with an attack if he wins.

reply to post by phi1618


Thank you very much.

Very good conclusion. I agree. That´s a possibility that has logic.

reply to post by pluckynoonez


I thought of asking everybody first how they wanted me to write this article, but definitely I chose literary license.

Otherwise, good point. I will write all my posts the way you want me to, just in case you decide to come in and read them.

My fault.

[edit on 30/5/2009 by Mexican against NAU]

you left out one major point. the U.S has thousands of troops and US nationals in south korea under NO circumstances would the US allow them to be in a warzone of course when it comes down to the nuclear issue they can threaten all they want but according to US intel they havent perfected the miniturization technology needed to equip missiles with there nuclear payload. they would have to be delivered by bomber. currently the aircraft carrier uss george washington is underway in westpac, just recently departed the sea of japan. not to mention we do have air force bases in south korea. but we come to the other end of the problem. we are in a unpopular war the public is sick of war. the economy is in shambles and it is unclear if obama has the support to declare a war even though i believe by treaty we have to come to south koreas aid. there is the strong possibility that we would negotiate to get the DPRK to let us simply evacuate our people which is going to send a very weakened message to other countries that oppose the US if we fail to make good on our promises then whats to stop china from invading taiwan or india from taking sri lanka. this is eerily close in tune to a book i read by tom clancy called debt of honor.

Interesting trip into Kim Jong-Il's mind but, quite frankly, you don't have a clue what and how he thinks. Your assumptions are based on what you perceive of him through the western MSM and what he wants us, westerners, to perceive of him. He needs to be portrayed as a crazy leader, capable of anything and uses it as diplomatic/political tool.
I don't know for sure a single thing about his personality or temper apart from what I am told in the newspapers. I barely know if he is alive or lying in a bed and what is his actual power.
He already has legacy, he is the son of God for his people.

Originally posted by justanothergangster2
you left out one major point. the U.S has thousands of troops and US nationals in south korea under NO circumstances would the US allow them to be in a warzone...

Unless, of course, we have it all backwards. Turn the situation around and see if it's a better fit. What if it's the U.S. that is saber rattling, setting up troops, and getting ready for the strut across the DMZ?

How convenient would it be if Kim Jung Il was incapacitated before he was able to fully coach a successor into position? How convenient for the U.S.to be right next door? Unite the North and South, pretty it up, and offer it over to China as a debt negotiation?

How much is it again? That China holds in U.S. bonds?

How much of NK's border is shared with China? It seems like it'd be a pretty seamless transaction, to me.



[edit on 30-5-2009 by SourGrapes]