Recession Over?

Experts on ABC are saying that it may not feel loke it yet but the recession is over. Are they living in the same world I am living in? Are they kidding?
What are yall's thoughts on this? Is the recession over?

cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com...

Yes the Recession is over this year for sure.

Because its turned into a Depression.

Not in my opinion, not by a long shot. All of the numbers are being manipulated and even the manipulated numbers they come up with are terrible. Just more lies from the talking heads.

Before the year started, I was thinking the absolute earliest it would be over would be in 2010. I didn't think the stock market would be where it is now, but I don't think those gains are really justified. But job market is still a mess, and everything else in our economy is dysfunctional. 70% of our economy is consumer spending, and that is not something we can keep up now or in the long run.

I see no reason really for any improvement in our economy, job loss will continue, outsorcing, national debt, personal debt, trade deficit ect. nothing is improving. I think it's going to take a collective amnesia to get us over our economic woes strangely enough, with a spice of greed thrown in. Real change they don't want, they just want to "restore confidence" in a broken system.

I still think it'll be a long term downturn for America, standard of living will decline.


[edit on 29-5-2009 by ghaleon12]

You know a recession is over only after the fact.

The truth is that most money managers are on vacation and are not really paying too much attention to the markets right now. Remember that the next wave of mortgage foreclosures is on the horizon.

Option ARM's were extended to those with better credit than sub-prime, and that seems to be the next wave coming. Foreclosures are up and the economy is still declining.

The key missing ingredient in this so-called recovery is the US consumer, if a consumption based economy does not have consumers that means its still bad out there.

Unfortunatley people are still hoping for a return to pre-collapse stock levels and home prices and that is not going to happen for awhile.

My predicition is sit back and watch because TSHTF in Sept (again) and possible recovery won't be seen till 2010-2011 earliest.

They're most likely basing this on the fact that the unemployment rate of change has slowed down. In four of the past five recessions, it "ended" when this happened.

Of course, that's a lousy sample-size to attempt to extrapolate conclusions from, especially when the causes of the recessions were significantly different.

It's not over, just wait. Everything will start getting worse very shortly.
Then the media is going to look like complete fools.

It's definitely not over. The banking system, for one, is still in shambles. Unemployment is still quite high, and more and more people continue to lose their jobs. GM still has yet to file bankruptcy, and when it does, expect a ricochet effect to reverberate through the economy.

Eventually, the whole country will look just like the city of Detroit at 32% unemployment. It's not a matter of if, but when. I am deeply afraid that we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg as to how bad this economy will fall.

The gains in the stock market are an illusion and unwarranted. Expect things to get much worse before they get better.

On the bright side, this recession has forced people to re-think their personal finances, and to hunker down and reduce personal debt. It has also forced many people to re-think their values, and not to place money so high on their totem pole. Maybe we will actually have a return to old-fashioned values and common sense for once.

When we emerge from this downturn, we will hopefully have an American consumer that is much more debt averse, and not as gullible to these bubble economies. And hopefully some smart entrepreneurs will come up with some creative solutions to the loss of our manufacturing sector.

If the politicians were smart, the would level a flat tax across the board, and free up businesses large and small to create jobs again. Cut taxes to the bone instead of looking for new taxes to burden the American taxpayer. Attack the deficit with a vengeance.

They would reward innovation. They would pull out of these senseless wars. They would cut government spending to the bone - both nationally and at the state level. They would stop illegal immigration and aggressively prosecute businesses that hire illegal immigrants. They would rein in government spending. They would give huge tax incentives to companies that employ Americans, and punish those companies that engage in tax fraud and shipping our jobs overseas.

I doubt I will see this happen in my lifetime. It could be done, but the country's elected leaders aren't likely to take the much needed action to make it happen.

The pundits are warning to expect hyper-inflation soon. The Fed claims that they should be able to control hyper-inflation, but who really knows? It may be high time to grow that vegetable garden and move to the country!

reply to post by Sundancer


The numbers have been manipulated from the start. What else is new?

CNN also has a program called Road to Recovery for quite some time now so it is true.

More reason not to trust the evil MSM.

its not over by a long shot. When TPTB can no longer manipulate the market it is going to get worse. I figured there would be a pretty good uptick in the market be for the next sho drops. we will see and I believe we will see very soon.

I think the markets are easily manipulated and this gets the general public to believe it is getting better. But they can only do this fir a short period of time until the money for the manipulations is gone.

It's certainly over for big oil (as I watch gas prices steadily climb towards the 2.50/gallon mark)

Recession Over? sure I can see that...
given the bonds are in free fall 12% of mortgage holders are now facing default. Mortgage rates on the rise again. the unemployment number while down month over month are shockingly high with more layoffs coming... add to that a growing world sentiment to replace the US dollar as the standard and reduce out fed notes to junk bond status...

then by all means I would say the Recession Is Over... welcome to hyperinflation which will be followed by the total collapse of the US free market system

reply to post by Melissa101


They are trying to keep the sheep in dreamland

just wait till the SHTF

Economy Shrinks 5.7 Percent in First Quarter, Less Than Initial Estimate

rest of story at the above link

The economy sank at a 5.7 percent pace as the brute force of the recession carried over into the start of the year. However, many analysts believe activity isn't shrinking nearly as much now as the downturn flashes signs of letting up.

The Commerce Department's updated reading on gross domestic product, released Friday, showed the economy's contraction from January to March was slightly less deep than the 6.1 percent annualized decline first estimated last month. But the new reading was a tad worse than the 5.5 percent annualized drop economists were forecasting.

0.4% less than expected big whooptido!! Recession is over, nothing to see here, move a long, spend your money and get mortgages you can't afford!!!

[edit on 5/29/2009 by pcgeek]

Happy days are here again!!

Unemployment is not too bad, stock market is up, food prices are down, gas is going down, oil has stablized, the whole world is at peace, and Obama saved the world.

All the illlegals have went home, Obama told everyone that Aliens have visited earth and live in the artic, Canada legalized weed, and Arnie has rehired all the school teachers, cops and such as California has lots of money.

WEEEEEEEEEE!



Right on.

When is Jesus coming back...wait..we don't need him as we have solved all the worlds problems.

posted twice..lol

[edit on 29-5-2009 by whiteraven]

the experts are not on TV because they are Accurate! they are on TV because they CAN mold.....strengthen......or reverse PEOPLE's Opinions about the Financial crisis into something more bullish

because to a degree it works....and you can fool alot of the people alot of the time.....especially when they ARE WILLING to be fooled.......see they want people to keep spending ...they don't want consumption to nose dive MORE and then unemployment to reach the stratosphere (this will cost them getting re-elected).....

on the negative side....the people who take this to heart based on wanting to believe....will just ensure their "dumb money" will be there abit longer should we fall some more (like when 2'd and 3'd Q earnings come out) and the smart money can get out at a higher price

also the word recession has a fickle definition........see unemployment could hit the MOON......the GDP could go down 40% and then the next quarter even with unemployment in the stratosphere....they could boost GDP thru gov't spending (on anything) and say.....GEE the recession is over because the spending raised our GDP

recession is the new normal........this will not change into the debt is reduced...........any green shoots will be the result of finding creative ways to kick the can down the road....at some point the can ...reaches the sewer..(Bond market pukes or currency pukes)....all the while the infrastructure for a future fascist -totalitarian state is stealthly being put in place......but individually we can still prosper

[edit on 29-5-2009 by cpdaman]

Originally posted by CookieMonster09
It's definitely not over. The banking system, for one, is still in shambles. Unemployment is still quite high, and more and more people continue to lose their jobs. GM still has yet to file bankruptcy, and when it does, expect a ricochet effect to reverberate through the economy.

Eventually, the whole country will look just like the city of Detroit at 32% unemployment. It's not a matter of if, but when. I am deeply afraid that we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg as to how bad this economy will fall.

The gains in the stock market are an illusion and unwarranted. Expect things to get much worse before they get better.

On the bright side, this recession has forced people to re-think their personal finances, and to hunker down and reduce personal debt. It has also forced many people to re-think their values, and not to place money so high on their totem pole. Maybe we will actually have a return to old-fashioned values and common sense for once.

When we emerge from this downturn, we will hopefully have an American consumer that is much more debt averse, and not as gullible to these bubble economies. And hopefully some smart entrepreneurs will come up with some creative solutions to the loss of our manufacturing sector.

If the politicians were smart, the would level a flat tax across the board, and free up businesses large and small to create jobs again. Cut taxes to the bone instead of looking for new taxes to burden the American taxpayer. Attack the deficit with a vengeance.

They would reward innovation. They would pull out of these senseless wars. They would cut government spending to the bone - both nationally and at the state level. They would stop illegal immigration and aggressively prosecute businesses that hire illegal immigrants. They would rein in government spending. They would give huge tax incentives to companies that employ Americans, and punish those companies that engage in tax fraud and shipping our jobs overseas.

I doubt I will see this happen in my lifetime. It could be done, but the country's elected leaders aren't likely to take the much needed action to make it happen.

The pundits are warning to expect hyper-inflation soon. The Fed claims that they should be able to control hyper-inflation, but who really knows? It may be high time to grow that vegetable garden and move to the country!

reply to post by Melissa101


OOPS... Sorry...

You are right unemployment right now if the numbers were accurate is closer to 18% in my neck of the woods. The media says it is around 11% but that is just whose on record as drawing unemployment. There are many who have drawn all they can, some that could not draw at all and these numbers are not included in the current unemployment rate.

I do think that the economy has slowed families down and people are taking stock of what is important. Family values in some hard hit homes are returning. This is a good thing IMO.