Worst Case Scenario: The Migration of Populations

This is actually the third posted chapter in my Worst Case Scenario series
1st: Worst Case Scenario: Food
2nd:Worst Case Scenario: The Countryside
its actual, proper location is between food and countryside so that might change discussion about the latter.

THE SUBURBS

• Due to lower density, as compared to the areas closer to the urban centre’s central business district, the suburbs will attract a large portion of the population from the interior of a metropolitan area.
  
• The availability of many resources, such as distribution of food goods will make them an attractive residence for the displaced population, that was once living in the down town regions.
  
• Due to the suburbs usually being a border between the higher density, core regions and the rural countryside, suburbia will be at least a stop off region for those migrating out of the metropolitan area.
  
• A large influx of refugees into suburban areas will hasten the effects of degradation and will increase the probability of fires occurring
  
  
  
  • Due to the failure of all essential utilities the suburban regions will quickly become overwhelmed by waste as populations increase
    
  • Disease will spread rampantly as hygiene systems breakdown and population densities rise, particularly in makeshift campsites and among the homeless.
    
  
  
• An increase in the overall population in suburban regions will cause a competition for residence as well as a significant increase of homelessness.
  
  
  
  • It is likely that ramshackle communities will develop by refugees from the inner metro areas.
    
  • Tent cities will most certainly be created throughout the suburbs on parks or other unoccupied land, including roads.
    
  
  
• Resources, that were used by existing suburban residents i.e. food and usable equipment, will be of high demand by refugees.
  
  
  
  • Crime rates will escalate exponentially in all regions and by all parties involved.
    
  
  
• Climbing death rates, due to a combination of factors (food, water depending on the environment and climate, disease and crime) will cause firstly, greater competition of resources or residence, and secondly an increasing undertaking of migration out of the metropolitan area altogether.
  
  
  
  • This will be a trend that increases over time rather than a spontaneous event as the exodus out of the central metro areas (downtown) was.
    
  • It will be a period spanning up to several years, starting immediately after the event has occurred.
    
  
  

EXODUS

• After the event has occurred, a migration out of metropolitan areas will occur into various surrounding areas, most notably the rural countryside.
  
  
  
  • This will occur in various amounts over time but it is certain that overall a trend to migrate in a centrifugal fashion away from the central core of a metropolitan area will exist in some form.
    
  
  
• Exodus from large and highly populated urban regions such as the conurbations or megalopolis of the North American north-east coast will cause a major population shift within a moderate space of time, which will create havoc along major transport routes which will most likely being the primary routes of refugees.
  
• Groups numbering in the hundreds of thousands will travel in droves out of urban areas and will ravage the regions they pass through for resources, be it natural or artificial produce.
  
  
  
  • Towns will be looted and wiped clean of food and other supplies.
    
  
  
• Criminal activity will further escalate as resources will get ever scarcer within groups.
  
  
  
  • Deaths over very trivial things such as blankets, cutlery, plastic water bottles (be they filled or not) and most importantly: food, in any form.
    
  
  
• Death due to exposure, disease, starvation or violence will wipe out huge portions of the population causing panic and an ever increasing presence of what would be called ‘primal instinct’, that is the unquestionable will to survive regardless of consequence.
  
  
  
  • If the climate is not in favour of the general population (i.e. if it is winter in the northern USA or Canada, Northern Europe, Russia and Northern Asia) there will be a significant increase in the amount of deaths in all counts, as well as exposure being one of the top causes of death alongside starvation and its related effects.
    
  
  
• It is likely that some groups will stop to create rudimentary campsites or “Tent cities” in various locations along migration routes.
  
  
  
  • This will most likely occur where there is a large supply or a natural source of resources
    
  
  

DESTINATION

• Most refugees will follow the person in front of them with no real idea where they are headed, apart from perhaps the knowledge of moving into the “country”.
  
  
  
  • They could attempt to move to other cities or urban centres, as a widespread knowledge of the extent of the event will most likely not be known.
    
  • Many would think of it to be a localized event, something attributable to a nuclear exchange, which would not be a scarcely mentioned theory
    
  
  
• Most with any idea of a destination will inevitably head to the country in hope of a supply of food with the assumption that all agricultural activities are located there and can support large populations with a continuous supply.
  
  
  
  • Millions of others, however, will either make the same assumption or will learn of this idea from others and follow.
    
  
  
• Of cause, there will be the fraction of a percent that will have somehow prepared for a crisis such as this in one way or another and as a result may have predetermined destinations complete with preservations and other supplies; however, the limiting factor in getting to it may lie in the routes taken by refugees, as well as its distance away from the urban area.
  
  
  
  • These few, however, will most likely have set out to reach these destinations very soon after the event has occurred ahead of the large refugee migrations.
    
  
  
• If any group of people were to arrive at particular area, a national park for example, there would be a creation of a small community, which could perhaps take up an initiative and become self sufficient for a time.
  
  
  
  • Subsequent waves of refugees will arrive in some form or another at the same location, and as this happens the partially established community will break down, after consuming most of the natural resources in the area.
    
  
  
• Farms will be a universal destination in some form or another, due to the idea of massive quantities of renewable food supplies and large open space
  
• Rural communities, at least for a short while, will become a destination for many, until they become completely drained of any resources, at which point the migration will continue, along with the community’s original inhabitants.
  
• National parks will be a universal destination also, depending on the resources available (a river with fish, for example)
  
• Refugees will follow pre-existing transport routes with the knowledge that they will, eventually, lead to some sort of community, which will mean resources
  
  
  
  • It will also, however, cause large groups to converge on one another, at least at a common destination and will therefore reduce the open space of regions such as the USA or Canada, at least in the first migration.
    
  
  

Thank You a very realistic veiw of what would happen after a breakdown of infrastructure as we know it

Very interesting read to makes me wanna check out your other posts.

S&F for you

I am inclined to think along the same lines... but for a temp reason... I think people would leave but would after awhile go right back into the cities because that is what they understand, an there would be literally thousands (if not more) that would stand around and actually not know what to do about anything except hope and wait for big brother to come along and take care of them...

Then there would be the survivors that actually were smart and put away food and weapons and other provisiions that are going to have to fight for what is theirs... If those people actually do make a run of it they are going to be the ones that would stay in the subburbs and live a long time... self reliance and skills are going to be a huge factor in defeating those that would take what they have away....But there is one draw back here ...a weakness as it were.... those that live in the burbs are the ones that are going to have to kill to survive, and they will very quickly realize that they are going to have to do things that require mental conditioning and a toughness to do the hard thing...at what ever cost.

The ones that actually do fight back are going to make it usually...but there is also going to be the ones that have for whatever reason refused to defend themselves and they will be the first to go... when they are removed by the armed criminal element that will be going hog wild killing and looting and all other atrocities thinkable...

but in the end the strong will survive and those in the cities will either fall victim or just flat out die, and I feel that suicide will also be very high on the charts as a cause of death...

but then again I could be wrong


btw... an excellent post..... it gives people something to think about...

[edit on 12-5-2009 by lilwolf]

Originally posted by lilwolf
But in the end the strong will survive and those in the cities will either fall victim or just flat out die, and I feel that suicide will also be very high on the charts as a cause of death...

I must admit i never even thought of suicide, although im not sure if it will have as much an impact as the other big killers, i.e. starvation, disease and exposure

suicides will occur within the first weeks to a greater extent i believe, i think a lot of bankers will jump much like they did in the 1929-30 depression

reply to post by funny_pom


Good read!

I, for one am already seeing huge population rises and immigration levels skyrocketing living the City... I can see a number of your scenarios already in full development, those being the lack of work for those who want to work and the lack of communication among the young generation (those who have no jobs or comprehension or meaning of life filter out into gangs). The latter is becoming increasingly evident. Swaths of immigrants have moved into the City areas and apparently work for less therefore pushing the guy above them in the pecking order out the door.

I can see there possibly being a lack of food in the future with the means for this possibly being the fact that as you say people will eventually move out into the suburbs and camping out wherever possible which could be on farms or general fields & parks creating less habitate for Animals to eat and breed (Of course this will be a major problem for the Carnivores to begin with but will soon become a problem for the Herbivores too) and of course a lack of communication will inevitably bring chaos to communities as many will not be able to understand what the next person is chatting about ( a bit like it is already in certain areas) but the scenario will be worse because of lack of space and no places to live or too many being crammed into the same space...

There will undoubtedly be many arguments & fights breaking out because of the lack of resources and breakdown in communication... many people will die because of this and there won't be anywhere to bury the dead! Their bodies will rot in the streets & fields creating many diseases....

With this possible scenario to look forward to we really do need to start closing the borders to immigrants and enforcing a 'no more than 2 or 3 kids per couple rule.' We also need to stop creating more Housing Projects to reduce our effect on the Environment!

I forgot to add that we are already seeing increased dis-harmony, demonstrations & violence in the Cities!!

S+F

[edit on 18-9-2009 by TruthxIsxInxThexMist]

Interesting topic.
Population density, gender imbalance and resource depletion all have the same results that apply. Governments need to be designed with this in mind.

Originally posted by JJay55
Interesting topic.
Population density, gender imbalance and resource depletion all have the same results that apply. Governments need to be designed with this in mind.

Quite, population density is the major factor in such a "migration", as it expands the issues of food availability, water availability (and quality) the spread of disease and on top of all that the violence that will exist as a result.

Originally posted by TruthxIsxInxThexMist
I, for one am already seeing huge population rises and immigration levels skyrocketing living the City... I can see a number of your scenarios already in full development, those being the lack of work for those who want to work and the lack of communication among the young generation (those who have no jobs or comprehension or meaning of life filter out into gangs).

I was referring to the lack of communication in the literal sense, being limited to direct person to person communication instead of having the ability to utilize electronic equiptment, but i see your point. A lack of social interaction will be a major factor in the fracturing of the population at a later date

[edit on 8-10-2009 by funny_pom]

I