Reinhardt - "The storm arrived.." - Market sell off on 05/11 week?

reply to post by Anonymous Avatar


Dow closed at -155. Almost 2% lower. Not a lot but still down.

If there's a massive drop tommorrow, new trend is now Tuesdays after the event?

The banks are still broke, people are still losing their jobs, our debt is STILL there and growing at a crazy rate. We can no longer afford anything without inflating the currency..or taxing...which is really the same thing.

Many have predicted a huge rise in stock prices....only to see a major drop.

Is this the day it starts?

Who knows.

well its 5/11/09 and he seems to have been correct, in fact right on the head

Wall Street Takes a Break After Strong Rally
Source

and more @
finance.yahoo.com...

reply to post by eldard


Yes the Legatus meetings always take place on Wed - Fri. The following Monday is "normal" then the slide begins the following Tuesday.

I don't see a huge drop coming... just a continuing downward spiral. With a rally here and there but it will keep sliding down.

reply to post by Anonymous Avatar


But October 6 last year was a monday and the market dropped 800 points immediately after the opening bell. Then it went up 500 points in the last two hours of trading (which really was suspicious.)

Have you seen the dow jones chart he's just put on his site? He seems pretty right to me, We'll have to see what happens in the stock markets to see if he is right this time. If theres another downturn as shown in his Feb 9th prediction then he's got it right this time too. We'll have to wait and see.

After Hours the market is already down. Tuesday has been the trend. Lets see what happens.....

Oh man Bernenke is speaking tonight....uh oh......

I'd really like to know what: "The negative news hasn't been made public means".

If he's talking about this little sham the banks are pull with mark to market then he could be on to something. Thats little trick is only going to work for this 1st quarter and then maybe the second.

For those who don't know about mark to market, heres a definition from Investopedia:

What Does Mark To Market - MTM Mean?
1. A measure of the fair value of accounts that can change over time, such as assets and liabilities. Mark to market aims to provide a realistic appraisal of an institution's or company's current financial situation.

2. The accounting act of recording the price or value of a security, portfolio or account to reflect its current market value rather than its book value.

3. When the net asset value (NAV) of a mutual fund is valued based on the most current market valuation.

For further info, check out investopedia.com.

So lets say for this coming quarter that the banks show more positive gains....how much of it is going to be attributed to MTM? How much is going to be attributed to raising capital? Remember, the capital raised is to cover themselves. But more importantly, the scenarios used are basically the BEST CASE scenario. How can one predict the "stress" placed on ones bank when one does not use a variable that actually uses stress?

So if this is the negative news that hasn't been made public...I'd agree that bank stocks, and the greater market would take a hit. Will we reach the lows seen in March? I'm skeptical to go that far...however, even though I own stock and would hate to see it lose value again, I'd love to see the market go down so I could go bargain hunting again.

And yes, I own bank stocks. They run as follows: DB, FRE, FNM, AIG, AIB, IRE, RBS, and QCC. Why? One, good dividends, two, I believe they will eventually return, and three, I have hope that through all of this people will stop spending like a bunch of idiots.

reply to post by tjeffersonsghost


Fed's Bernanke Defends Outcome Of Stress Tests As Positive

The Fed reported that if its worst-case scenario was realized banks' additional losses could total around $600 billion. Under the test, the Fed determined that 10 of the banks would collectively require $185 billion in new capital. Bernanke pointed out in his remarks much of shortfall has already been covered, and that the affected banks need only increase their equity buffer by $75 billion.

The Fed has taken criticis from some quarters that the exercise was insufficiently tough, and that the outcome understates the true nature of the financial challenges facing banks. Bernanke's speech sought to allay those concerns.

"Projecting credit losses in an uncertain economic environment is difficult, to say the least, but the intensive, painstaking nature of this process gives us confidence in our results," Bernanke said. "We believe that our estimates of needed capital buffers are appropriately conservative," given that they are based on decidedly pessimistic potential outlooks, he said.

While noting projections based on forecasts is a process that's "inherently uncertain," Bernanke nevertheless viewed the stress test process as worthwhile.

this was posted at 7:30pm around the time he was supposed to speak this evening.

Monday's pullback was expected from the last min spike on Friday and just in general.

R specifically said some bad news will be unveiled.. nothing has happened yet.

GM bankruptcy is nothing new either.

Looks like the economic crash is not yet over. IMF today is warning of the economic storm of a lifetime and more preparations are urgently needed. Related?

www.bloomberg.com...

Europe Needs More Coordinated Stimulus, Banking Rules, IMF Says

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- European countries should improve coordination of economic stimulus plans and go further in integrating financial regulation than they are now considering, the International Monetary Fund said.

“Europe is the most economically integrated market economy in the world and yet the policies to address the crisis have been undertaken at a national level,” Marek Belka, director of the IMF’s European department, said today in a statement. The region faces the “economic storm of a lifetime and it urgently needs to weatherproof its institutions,” he added.
...
“Further actions by policy makers, particularly in the financial sector, are needed to restore market trust and confidence,” Belka said. “What is mostly needed is a robust approach to coordination, in particular on financial and regional macroeconomic stability.”
...
“Further room to reduce interest rates should be exploited swiftly and additional unconventional easing will have to be considered,” the IMF said in today’s report.

R seems to be wrong on this one, unless as others have said that this is just the beginning of something else. Market was looking to keep a slightly downward trend until Greenspan opened his mouth and projectile vomited roses all over the place.

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks erased an earlier drop as former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the housing market may be on the verge of recovery and financial markets should continue improving.

Financial shares in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index reversed almost all of a 4.7 percent decline after Greenspan told a conference that companies are able to raise more capital than they expected. Pfizer Inc. led gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average after Credit Suisse Group AG said the company may boost its dividend after taking over Wyeth.

Bloomberg

EDIT: I just read R's little journal and it does indeed sound like some 'bad news' is brewing and it may have something to do with auditing or something. I'll bet no-one assumes responsibility for it - whatever it is. Then again, what do I know? It is anybody's unsubstantiated guess as to what it could be.

[edit on 12-5-2009 by nydsdan]

reply to post by nydsdan


interesting..... we'll have to wait and see what happens in the coming days/weeks

Dow down another 2% after closing up 50 points Tuesday. The week's not ovah.

And so it began...

...S&P is starting to fall

S&P top 919

did you get it?

today's 19-05-2009

[edit on 19-5-2009 by strange-emily]

I can't help but think that the bottom is going to really fall out this fall. I think this fall will be one that we will all remember.

Dow 8,504.08 +235.44 +2.85%

Nasdaq 1,732.36 +0.00 +0.00%
S&P 500 909.71 +0.00 +0.00%

Tuesday, May 19, 2009, 8:05AM ET
U.S. Markets open in 1 hour and 25 minutes.


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the above was the DOW increase yesterday the 18th of May '09

add that the Volitity Index hit '30', and the recurring theme
when the VIX goes into the low '30' is that a 6% rise in the Market starts.

~~~~~~~~~

in any case, on 15 May i got my moderate (100%+) profit in the shares of DowChemical i bought for $7.85---then sold for $17.17 some 40 days later.

the profits will buy me that apartment sized refrigerator i'll need to keep my Adult Beverages cold !


i will continue to use 'Reinhardt' as a contrarian indicator !

Thanks,

Unless somebody has shelled out the $750 no one knows what the crap R is saying.
I read a bit on the now hacked Wired Pirate site....I think...but that person got shut down fast.
The idea that nobody with a subsription has complained and outed R indicates that R may be somewhat accurate.

We can only guess unless somebody comes out of the closet although I get the feeling nobody will.

[edit on 19-5-2009 by whiteraven]

Originally posted by Karlhungis
I can't help but think that the bottom is going to really fall out this fall. I think this fall will be one that we will all remember.

It's just a coincidence -- a non-consequential identity.


btw, where's that storm?
I want my money back.