Top Flu Expert Warns of Swine Flu-Bird Flu Mix

This is not looking very good.....

Top Flu Expert Warns of Swine Flu-Bird Flu Mix

MEXICO CITY — Bird flu kills more than 60 percent of its human victims, but doesn't easily pass from person to person. Swine flu can be spread with a sneeze or handshake, but kills only a small fraction of the people it infects.

So what happens if they mix?

This is the scenario that has some scientists worried: The two viruses meet — possibly in Asia, where bird flu is endemic — and combine into a new bug that is both highly contagious and lethal and can spread around the world. Scientists are unsure how likely this possibility is, but note that the new swine flu strain — a never-before-seen mixture of pig, human and bird viruses — has shown itself to be especially adept at snatching evolutionarily advantageous genetic material from other flu viruses.

Should You Be Worried?

"This particular virus seems to have this unique ability to pick up other genes," said leading virologist Dr. Robert Webster, whose team discovered an ancestor of the current flu virus at a North Carolina pig farm in 1998.

The current swine flu strain — known as H1N1 — has sickened more than 2,300 people in 24 countries. While people can catch bird flu from birds, the bird flu virus — H5N1 — does not easily jump from person to person. It has killed at least 258 people worldwide since it began to ravage poultry stocks in Asia in late 2003.

The World Health Organization reported two new human cases of bird flu on Wednesday. One patient is recovering in Egypt, while another died in Vietnam — a reminder that the H5N1 virus is far from gone

"The H1N1 has the unique ability to pick up other genes"- I don't want to cause any panic but I think we should be very careful here. even though many has argued that this is a mild virus, it has the potential to mutate and mix with other deadly viruses and the H5N1 is still lurking around and it is a matter of time that these two meet and mix....

Many of us on here have been trying to warn people of this for 2 weeks now..say response..Ah,its just a flu...

Its gonna get ugly..

reply to post by Redpillblues


Agree with you....this is going to get very ugly indeed. I posted a previous thread showing the possibility of H1N1 mixing with HIV and now this article showing the possibility of it Mixing with H5N1.....I sincerely hope this does not happen....but if it does

The other point people keep missing is that even if this didn't combine with that, it can still go on to get a footing around the globe and infect potentially hundreds of millions of people. Then of course for each person who actually has it there will be several who "think" they have it and you can just imagine the way the health services would be completely overstretched, unable to deal with all but a certain percentage of all these people coming in ill. A scenario like that could just as easily result in massive death toll because of people not being able to get the health care needed which would help them make it through rather than die.

My gut told me at the start of this swine flu, that this isn't THE one, but as soon as it begins to mutate and travel the globe, we are certainly in for some major trouble.

This next phase is gonna get very ugly.

Kind of gives a whole new meaning to the phrase "when pigs fly."

I thought that the current H1N1 was a combined strain of swine, avian and human already. So are they saying that the more lethal to human H5N1 avian flu is different than the avian flu that's already in there?

"The new strain contains gene sequences from North American and Eurasian swine flus, North American bird flu and North American human flu, said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."

I'm confused now.

reply to post by blujay


WHO has already warned that a second wave is going to be devastating. It is as if the virus has gone shopping for some ammunition as it has the ability to pick up other genes and come back a super virus....This was just a warm up the war has not stated yet

from what I gather this flu has,say the foundation already layed for avian..It can easily mutate with it and spread it from Human to Human..As just regular avian can only be trasmited from animal to person..

Originally posted by Iamonlyhuman
I thought that the current H1N1 was a combined strain of swine, avian and human already. So are they saying that the more lethal to human H5N1 avian flu is different than the avian flu that's already in there?

"The new strain contains gene sequences from North American and Eurasian swine flus, North American bird flu and North American human flu, said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."

I'm confused now.

I am no scientist but I think that the Avian flu that is already in there is not the H5N1. However, since the current H1N1 strain has a connection with 'birds', then I believe that it will be easier for it to mix with H5N1. Any expert here who can clarify this?

I wish people would stop being so alarmist. Saying "it's gonna get ugly" means a mutated supervirus is a sure thing. This is not the case. From listening to the guy who fought and discovered how to curb the H5N1 in the first place, he said it's 'not very likely' for this to occur. It COULD happen, sure. But it's unlikely.

So there is a very low chance it 'could get ugly.' Stop stating this as if it's fact. I get weary of people trying to sensationalize and alarm people with over the top fear-mongering.

We ALL carry an 'A' type influenza virus..............

All mammals do.

The truth is, we don't know how it may pan out. New anti-virals take 4-6 months to produce and by then the current virus may well have mutated to a stage where it is resistant anyway.

My advice, for what it's worth is.....................no need to panic, practice good infection control measures xxx

Originally posted by Redpillblues
Many of us on here have been trying to warn people of this for 2 weeks now..say response..Ah,its just a flu...

Its gonna get ugly..

Ive been trying to warn people for over a month but all I run into is "OMG its just hype!" or "SWINE FLU IS TEH STUPID!".

Lets see what they think when it mixes. Vietnam has a large ammount of h5n1 cases and h1n1 is spreading there as we speak.

For the people who asked if this has bird genes in it hows it different. Well h5n1 has problems crossing the species barrier so it hasnt been a big threat but we know thru viral evolution it could be eventually.

Think of it this way, h5n1 bird flu has certain proteins on its surface to allow it to attach to bird cells. This allows it to reproduce in birds. But it doesnt have the right proteins for humans to attach to human cells.

h1n1 has the right proteins on the surface to attach to human cells, bird cells and pig cells. So if can jump thru multiple species. This is why its a pandemic risk.

Now lets say the more lethal h5n1 mates with h1n1 and h5n1 decides it likes h1n1's surface proteins. It decides to add it to its own 'very common in flus' then h5n1 can attach to human cells. So now we have a deadly virus that was just a bird virus but now it can jump from human to human, it becomes as infectious as the h1n1.

Can this happen? Oh yes and it will, its not if its when. Because of the spread of h1n1 'spanish flu' (thats supposed to be dead and gone mind you) people who know biology are freaking out. If the people who have the education to understand it are worried then you should be too.

en.wikipedia.org...

Think of the surface proteins as a key to the door of a cell. Also h3n2 has been confirmed in Mexico as well. You might wanna ask yourself where all this came from since someone had to dig up a dead body to get h1n1 in the first place. If someone is releasing these virii they have something even worse than this. So if h1n1 doesnt combine with h5n1 they might release their special mixture, or they might do it anyhow.

Read the wiki article, its easy to understand. h3n2 should not be in Mexico either. If I was Mexico Id be pretty ticked off. Unless Mexico did this itself to crush or slow down the civil war happening right now.



[edit on 8-5-2009 by Memysabu]

reply to post by rattan1


Looks like the WHO is aware of- even expecting- an H5N1 outbreak, as well:

www.who.int...

Warning from the Secretery-General about H5N1 during an H1N1 outbreak? Hmm.....

Great catch! S&F.

H1N1 mixing with H5N1 is a real possibility and huge danger. This AP article spells it all out nicely, and accessibly.

"My great worry is that when this H1N1 virus gets into the epicenters for H5N1 in Indonesia, Egypt and China, we may have real problems," (Webster) told The Associated Press. "We have to watch what's going on very diligently now."

FYI - A news article last week said H5N1 bird flu has been found in pigs in Indonesia. ...Does not bode well, but is all entirely predictable.

sofi

Originally posted by fleabit
So there is a very low chance it 'could get ugly.' Stop stating this as if it's fact. I get weary of people trying to sensationalize and alarm people with over the top fear-mongering.

The W.H.O. said it has 5 million doses of Tamiflu. It also followed that statement with 'clearly this won't be enough'.

That's in addition to each industrialized country having tens of millions of their own doses. The USA has 50 million for example.

When these organizations that understand pandemics say that hundreds of millions of doses around the world 'won't be enough' ... then they are saying that they expect this to be A VERY BIG EVENT.


Facts are not fear-mongering. They are just facts.
No use putting our heads in the sand.
Ignorance kills.


Edited to add - I just finished reading the swine flu chapter in 'The Coming Plague' .. it says pigs are a wonderful mixing bowl for all types of virus' and flu. They all live happily together inside pigs and sometimes those virus and flus combine inside pigs.

[edit on 5/9/2009 by FlyersFan]

Just sayin'...two years ago researchers unearthed the body of an Inuit eskimo woman who had died of the 1918 Spanish flu, and since she had been buried in permafrost her body was preserved well enough that they were able to revive the Spanish flu virus and infect monkeys to study the effects. Which were ghastly, by the way. This was done at the Army's medical research facility in Fort Detrick Maryland. And THEN....in February of this year(2009) three vials of an undisclosed virus were discovered missing from Fort Detrick.

Just sayin'.

Do you know where I could read about the missing three vials? I would love to see the articles on that one!

Thank you.

[edit on 9-5-2009 by solarstorm]