posted on Apr, 7 2009 @ 12:56 AM
Patterns do emerge in complex systems. However, complex systems are notoriously difficult to fully understand and therefore make predictions about
with any amount of accuracy. You cannot control a complex system, only manage it. Interactions producing a certain result today, will have
unpredictably different results the next.
A common analogy I use is the popcorn kettle. It's hopeless to try to predict when any single one kernel in a kettle of popcorn will pop - or what
precise shape it will take. There's far too many factors to take into account with our present level of technology and understanding. However, we can
fairly accurately gauge the point in time when all the kernels in the kettle that are going to pop, will have popped - and we can see patterns in
their basic geometries to indicate what shape the popcorn kernel will likely take.
We know that society will likely one day decline into a new dark ages for humanity. I don't think there are too many people who would argue this
point. However, like the kettle of popcorn, we don't know when our particular kernel (society) will pop and what the resulting shape it will take
will be. We can speculate, but that's all it is. Speculation. Claims such as the OP's source are misleading, and do not accurately reflect our
current understanding of emergent patterns in complex systems.