What is the Most Likely Sit X Scenario?

In all honesty, what do you consider the most likely scenario to result in a Sit. X?
Economic Collapse resulting in riots, chaos, and pandemonium and subsequently resulting in Marshall Law?

A Natural Disaster(Asteroid, Sea Level rise, even violent earthquakes resulting in tsunamis, supervolcano)?

WW3?(and what will be the catalyst that sets it off)?

Any other thoughts?

I am putting together my BOB and INCH packs.
I am stocking up on food and other necessities.....
I just have this overwhelming sense of impending disaster....

I think we are beginiing to see a major upheaval in western society, just the immense debt the US and EU have plus the debts of the other trading nations means our children will face huge fiscal tax burdons, The greed that has driven our culture since WW2 is now coming home to roost. Our economies are failing, our politicians discredited, our militarys both over stretched and dishonoured. We have let so many people who are utterly hostile to our western culture systems move in among us, This allowed attacks likle 911/ 7/7 / Bali / Madrid/ Moscow etc to happen. Those attacks I believe are in future going to be seen as small scale skirmishes comparted with what is likely to follow. Couple that to the rise in gang crime, drug wars, energy shortages rising fuel and food prices. Population explosions in the third world etc are all leading to a social and economic collapse that will cripple all but the politicians and rich city bankers.

Our options are few because there is just not the political will to deal with the threats head on , so the best the survivalist communities can do is get the ***k out of town and make a life for ourselves in smaller rural communities that can be self sustaining and self sufficient. The cities are already lost causes.

Thanks for the response.
It seems most likely that economic collapse will be the Sit X. I believe we are teetering on the brink right now.
Any terrorist attack on US soil, a huge natural disaster, or any new war declarations will drop us right off the edge into chaos.

I believe I will wake up late one night and hear moaning out side my house. I will investigate the sounds. I will notice a man bleeding from the neck walking real slow almost acting crazed. The man will start to walk towards me as he raises his hands almost as if he's reaching for me. I will point my gun at him, "freeze" "I said freeze" He will ignore my demands as he's closing in. I fire one round at his leg... He's still coming towards me. Another round fired at his chest, No response... Just kidding.
I really don't know what to expect for a SIT X, If I had to guess, I would expect some type of staged attack, but on a larger scale with more deaths that would create rioting and violence, Like the aftermath of Katrina but on a nation wide scale. People would be helpless and begging for help, and help will come in the form of a RFID chip. I believe that things have to get so bad that people will accept anything as long as their promised things will get better.

Right now, at the top of my list, would be economic collapse. We've got a pretty shaky economy and I think that it is possible that we could suffer a somewhat unexpected sudden collapse.

Second on my list would be a pandemic. Picture the bird flu mutated to become easily transmissible. Even if this is not a disease that wipes out the population, it could precipitate an economic collapse due to people being afraid to go to work.

The next two things that I consider as possible are collapse due to shortages of one kind or another. I've read many articles about fisheries collapsing. However, the countries that are exploiting this resource are not inclined to say take a ten year moratorium to led the fisheries recover. So, you could see a ca strophic collapse of the fishing industry with a cascade effect that could create wide spread food riots.

Fourth on my list is a shortage of clean water. We use far more water than we need right now. Most people don't realize how the demands for fresh water may not be able to keep up with supplies. Once again cascade effect with reduced food etc. eventually leading to riots ....

My thoughts are this:

Anger from the economic crisis we're going through will precipitate some people acting out...not in a big way. The govt will brand these miscreants as 'domestic terrorists' and then shtf with real attacks from really angry people. The govt will over react and the downward slide towards a totalarian system will roll.

Where it will end is anybodies guess.

I am going to say that on the top of my list of possibilities is a financial collapse of some kind. Whether it be in the form of the market collapsing, or the USD imploding, or total collapse of all the major banking institutions.(the recent news of china wanting a new reserve currency could be a precursor) If any of the before mentioned happened it would create swift civil unrest followed quickly by rioting.

I however also look to the pandemic scenario as a strong contender as well. With the recent news that an H5N1 strain was released with a standard flu vaccine only leads one to believe that it is probably going to happen it's just a matter of when. When and if a pandemic breaks out you would be left to survive on what you have on hand. The second the news broke that it was a pandemic store shelves would be emptied.

The third possibility is a "Terrorist Attack". Depending on the scale of the attack things could spiral out of control rapidly. I doubt that with a large enough attack that any law enforcement agency would be able to control a panicked city of people. I also think that a similar situation would play out with people raiding stores for anything they can get their hands on emptying store shelves quickly.

Being prepared for any scenario is essential. I worry about all of the possibilities, and at the same time try not to let it consume my every day life. When I go shopping for example if there are cases of say water on sale I grab a couple of extra and put them away just in case. I like many others here have also put together a BOB, and have things set asside for different given situations. The trick to all of it is to have the general basics, and not to over do it. Like having tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition stockpiled isn't going to do you one bit of good if you have to leave on foot.

This is a very interesting topic, just to see what people think might happen, or has the highest probability of happening.

I personally love probability and monitor a ton of different news, economic, and popular avenues and make up probabilities of things that could happen. Now, this is clearly, extremely, unscientific and arbitrary. However, I've been interestingly right in a few "predictions." I use quotes for that, as its inferences anyone can make if they pay attention.

So, in short, here's what I'd say:

80% chance: Nothing happens. America's history of stability and cooler heads prevailing prevents a massive destabilization. America, even if the rest of the world falters, remains the world's sole superpower and brings the rest of the world out of any chaos. This may be a catalyst to a world government. I'm not saying that the 80% chance is that there will be a world collapse, just that the United States will be insulated and safe. This is the most historical and political possibility.

13% chance: The United States moves closer to greater democratization. Remember your philosophers, when democracies go down, they form tyrannies. However, if the government remains a republic in decline, we can become an Empire. Notice, Empires are not all Tyrannies. If things begin to collapse in the United States, the SitX will be mass protests across the nation. The president will be voted emergency powers to preserve the Union (historically, this is the way it usually happens). There is the possibility of a coup, but, I wouldn't give it much of a chance of happening. The catalyst for these protests would be a terrorist attack or a major market collapse. This SitX moment is at its highest probability yet in late April 2009. The reason for this? The first stimulus package is currently buffering the economy of the United States. If steps can't be taken to preserve the economy, talk of a second stimulus will start in early May. The market will begin to fluctuate and then drop down in a huge manner.
The real SitX moment would have to come in late September with the imposition of emergency powers.

5% chance: There is a major event, such as a terrorist attack or a market collapse before the government is prepared to sweep in and restore order. When this happens, we see that there are at least five factions, geographically generated across the nation. The bonds of the nation begin to dissolve as federal troops try in vain to make sure the nation doesn't unravel. By the fall of 2010, congress will have generally dissolved,

NR has pretty much hit the nail on the head.
What we're seeing now is the combination effect taking place.
The economy and world food supply are linked and if this is balance is shifted then food shortages are IMO the most likely SITX for the UK.

The USA is a different kettle of fish though...

most likely a collapse of the banks,and possibly a terror attack..When the internet goes down I know were in the #..

To borrow from our dearly beloved Department of Homeland Security:

Natural Disasters
Conventional Destruction/Violence
Economic
Nuclear/Biological/Chemical
Wargames/Theoretical

That is the order in which I most fear them.

I believe natural disasters will occur regardless of what humanity does, because I don't believe even the Illuminati or what have you can control the weather or the effects of "Mother Nature" on her "guests".

I put conventional destruction and violence ahead of economic disaster because, left alone, economic disaster of a "Class 5" level (wherein a massive percentage of humanity dies) would take a very long time, and I believe human frustration would reach such a level that their nature would cause them to destroy eachother long before a lack of money ever did so.

Nuclear, biological, and chemical warfare are put in the list where they are due to the fact that we've not quite gotten to the point where we solve our problems with "push-button wars". If we reach a point where our concept of fighting the war on terror is to push a button and turn "terrorist harbors" into radioactive craters, this will definitely go up on the list. Also, I would put this further up on the list if countries were "demonstrating" to one another via acts of war their own NBC muscle.

Wargames and theoretical situations are at the bottom of the list due to their somewhat fanciful nature. I hardly expect zombies, space aliens, and the like to attack before I expect humans to destroy themselves. I'm not saying that the consideration of a "zombie attack" is complete crap, but it hasn't happened yet, whereas man seems bent on doing the job himself long before our cemetery residents get to it.

Thanks for posting.....
I am at a loss to even fathom zombies. Seriously people. Zombies?
Does the gov't have some secret technology to reanimate the dead?!?!?!
Come on people! Explain to me how it is even possible. WOW
But anyways.....back to reality.

Zombies are easy! It's the super zombie virus, cause unknown!

reply to post by Spypants


Come on, there's ALWAYS room for zombies so let the zombies loose, that way Milla Jovovich can come in, save the day , and show her tummy fluff at the same time.

[edit on 31/3/09 by DataWraith]

reply to post by Spypants


When was the last time you were at Wal-Mart? It is not the brain eating George Romero zombies that scare me.

Spiritowl

Originally posted by Spypants
Thanks for posting.....
I am at a loss to even fathom zombies. Seriously people. Zombies?

Have you ever seen a Republican Party Conference ?

Honestly, I think that either an economy collapse, or a natural disaster would be the SitX scenario. Either way, I think I'll be fine.

SitX, by its very nature, is impossible to predict. There are so many potential disasters..."Survivalism" has been around since the 70's...nuclear armageddon...economic collapse (yes, it was happening 30 years ago, with double-digit inflation to boot)...the total collapse of civilization and Life As We Know IT (well, actually, Life As We Knew It back then DID come to an end).

The motto of the Boy Scouts is "Be Prepared". When Baden-Powell was posed the question "Be prepared for what?", his answer was:

"Why, for any thing."

And that, I think, is the best answer to the question posed by the OP. Nobody can know what is going to happen, and one shouldn't prepare for just one eventuality. I have pointed this out in other threads. Be well generally prepared, but don't limit yourself.

Actually, come payday, I'm going to start working on my own survival kit, which won't consist of too much more, since I have most of the stuff already.

Be prepared for anything is my motto. It has been for a long time.

Daft I know but I REALLY hope it's ZOMBIES, at least that way we'd have a fighting chance as ZOMBIES are stupid and they just shamble along making groaning noises, plus they aren't very quiet when shuffling through underbrush . You can hear them a mile off and have time to run away, all the vehilces and food would be ok and there'd be enough for the survivors .
Plus all the survivors can get a compound built up to keep them out , or failing that board up a solid building ( not a shopping centre though).
;lol;