Worst Case Scenario: The Countryside

reply to post by mopusvindictus


exodus will not occur immediately after the event, rather it will be a continuous flow of people out of urban regions and will vary substantially with regards to the urban regions' size (particularly the expanse of its built up hinterlands, sprawl or whether it is connected to other urban centres) as well as climatic conditions and geographic landforms.

90% of a population is a good bet as to the amount that will never leave an urban area prior to surcoming to death in whatever form it might be; however, with large, continuous developed areas with populations in excess of 10million, that 10% that escapes will be substantial in numbers.

Albeit it will be spread out and diluted as the population moves in a centrifugal fashion away from the original population centre, but you should still expect to see groups in their thousands most certainly in their hundreds.

How far they will go before either dying or simply stopping will depend on a lot of things, but being more than 300 kilometers from the nearest major population centre will ensure your safety, at least for the first 6 months or so.

reply to post by funny_pom


I'm not sure its as big an issue for the rural areas of a country such as the US as might initially seem.

10% sounds about right, but that number will also fall off fairly rapidly as the distance from the urban center increases. My guess is that this 10% would make it to 25 miles, and you'd lose around half for every 25 miles after that.

If that holds true, then many of us in the rural US would have little to worry about. The nearest urban center to me is 90 miles away, with 600,000 people. If that above model holds, one could expect that only about 7,500 of them will ever make it far enough out to reach this small town. If we assume relatively even dispersal in every direction, one could reasonably expect that only about a couple dozen would ever make it here. Certainly, we'd have a few more from other surrounding areas, but I would expect no more than a few hundred unless we were really unlucky.

The point is, the ones that do arrive will likely do so in groups that are manageable and by the time they do, they'll have probably suffered even higher losses if they've been raiding the countryside. Once they get here, if they're still looking for a fight, I know about 3,000 well armed rednecks who would give them one.

You might want to watch the ABC movie Earth 2100
See part one here
I was especially tickled by how the said my part of the world would become a "No-Mans-land" and how the only safe way to travel through it was in a caravan... well armed caravan LOL... I find it funny seeing how the southwest if still a heaven for retired folks

"

Solar powered refrigeration is fantastic, but when you have nothing to put in it, or you are too riddled with dysentery or cholera, its usefulness is somewhat dissipated unfortunetly.

Very true, but lets say you either already live in the country so are going to stay put or need to buy enough time for the dust to settle before you can bug out. Any food in your freezer will be rancid in no time without electricity. With this info you could possibly make it last another week to 10 days....much better than wasting it. Obviously, you deplete this first before breaking into the non perishables. In a truly SHTF scenario, I would think every little bit helps and one or two things like the above could mean the difference.

Originally posted by The Utopian Penguin

Originally posted by exile1981
I live on the Canadian Prairies and here is how I have thought out about the issue of the hoards.

Although Your assessment seems quite logical generally there are still A few things for me to express.

First of all I don't think 54% in 3 days is valid for Food and Water.

I have a friend who works for the gov't and he told me that a recent survey found that 54% of the people in Canada do not have 72 hours of food and water in there homes.

I think you need to address water separately.
I would say 60% run out of food in a week.
But there would be some issues but as not quickly as you propose.
I would say water right away within 24 hrs there would minor problems.

I figure people can last 3 days on the water in there toilet tanks and what they have around the home.

Now, as far a water is concerned,I don't think there would long term problems. We have alot of food and water but there may be problems with the logistics. If it was a country wide problem then I could see it play out that way. Not as quick as your stating.
Generally most larger Canadian cities have quite a sprawl to them with little communities around them.

I was basing my idea on a sudden stop in electricity and gov't infrastructure, like an EMP or a major asteroid. A pandemic would be a much worse one as people would be more afraid of those they encounter.

We have too many resources here.
There may be logistic problems.
There may be problems with waves of unrest..
I'm thinking it may not even lead to A mass exodus in most cities.
Theres A lot of government preparedness in place, if you make the right calls you'll find this to be true. There maybe A panic but not very severe.
I'm thinking A smoldering fire, not an explosion.
Unless it's A forced evacuation situation I don't think it happen.
There are more people that have somewhere to go than you think.
There may be problem with people trying to get there.

The issue I see is that in a city like either Edmonton or Calgary, you have central areas in the city where the big grocery chains have the storage warehouses. Once the stores run out, either the gov't or a large agressive gang will take over those facilities and control the food supply. In a few weeks a city of 1 million will have eaton all the supplies in those warehouses. I figure about half of the million or so people in the city have a place they want to get to, but by the time they head out fuel access could be a huge issue. Also the chances of getting there on a tank of gas is slim.

I think this part is somewhat valid,there are people that are clueless.
Generally people will start to eventually coalesce into groups.
I think there little pockets of problems in the rural area's as well.
In the cities it will escalate. People will start to pool up where there is water.

But most of the smart people are gone already. There is alot of trucks and Hummers on the roads. The countryside can bare a lot refugees.
I think A segment of the population may turn to violence and crime.
There will be looting of course ,but the majority won't.

I think that about 5% or so will turn quickly to violence because either they figure it's thiers or they want to take it. Many others will start to head down that path if they feel desperate enough, or if "society" stays broken long enough. Rivers will become centers for new communities. Looting may not be common but people will still "forage" and may not think about who's land they are on.

Make sure you know who your neighbors are.
Hope that their good people.

Even small towns have bad apples.


[edit on 11-10-2009 by The Utopian Penguin]

After re-reading the whole thread I have a final things to add.

Plan for the worst, hope and pray for the best.
In the end if society breaks down and I don't end up with a bunch of people wandering onto my land trying to scavenge my crops for themselves then I owe Penguin a beer, otherwise if they do I guess the OP was correct and I owe her a beer.