Worst Case Scenario: The Countryside

reply to post by xynephadyn

'Thats why its just best to stay where you are, in your homes and prepare for the worst by having stocks of food, water, and alternative energy. Having a gun wont hurt either.'


Once your stocks of food & water run out, how do you intentend to replenish them? Also, what type of alternative energy are you talking about?

Originally posted by The Utopian Penguin

I'm aware the scenario funny_pom TY,Exile made reference to A prairie Canadian city Of around A million people. It will play out differently there than elsewhere. As far as government preparedness not playing out,I know your wrong.Trust me on this. When I reference to logistics,I know what I'm talking about.

I currently live in a small city, of just over 1 million, and despite it being located on along a large river system, there is quite a distance to travel, possibly, depending on where your destination is.

where my house is currently, i an around 40 kilometers from the central business district, and at least 15-20 from any water source i know about.
This is also a key factor too, knowing something exists is one thing, knowing its geographical location is another.

following on the subject of logistics and communication, i would like you to perhaps elaborate on why i should trust you on that, because as i stand now, i cannot see the evidence to support your argument. I can tell you, that if i wanted to raise some issues, about anything, with a person or organisation that i would deem fit to do so, without using a phone or other electronic form of communication, i would have absolutely no idea where to start.
Just because a city of even 200,000 is tiny compared to the big capitol cities, 200,000 is a very large number of people. A very large number of increasingly hungry, confused, scared and desperate people. 200,000 is the size of an Army, ask any experienced General and they will lecture you all day on the issues of logistics with such a number of people. In fact, the military is a good place too look, aside form the level of professionalism that is a bit disparate to mainstream, modern urban population, it is a great comparison, due to the issues of communications and logistics present.

After you have a chance to examine those two cities you will realize that
There is A lot of water and agriculture in the area.
There is A lot of parks,campgrounds and food production in the area.
That also means people have all summer to settle in for the winter.
Both cities have rivers that run through them and lakes near by.
I don't see any major problems.

200,000 people camping out in weekend campgrounds, with limited food stores and limited knowledge of how to produce it is a bad combination. Coupled with the fact that so many people, given their mental and physical conditions by the time they "settle down", will be a good one for over-exploitation and mismanagement. They would enjoy a time of plenty, for a while, until they eat or burn it all in a few months.

although there might be plenty of water in a city, especially one in a temperate or cool climate, access to it will be limited. if there are no working water mains, one might have to travel some distance to find a running water source, i.e. a stream, river, lake or whatever the case might be.

Thats not valid upon further investigation

enlighten me on that

food will also spoil if all measures of preservation have failed, so that will reduce available stocks dramatically. See here for the thread on this topic

That wont be a problem.

again, back up your argument

Although you make some good points, please back them up.

Originally posted by SANTA CLAWS
Work together to survive and don't try to take over what we have worked hard to keep from the "Money Changers"

Try telling that to a mob of desperate, hungry people who have walked for 100 miles for some food.



[edit on 11-10-2009 by funny_pom]

reply to post by whitewave


Very good post WW. People need to shed their misconceptions about those of us that are countryside dwellers. Lots of us, believe it or not, are college educated and in tune with the modern world, contrary to popular belief.

My husband and I would take a very dim view indeed, if people thought they could descend on our property unscathed, without first asking. Depending on the situation, asking politely might not work either.

Seriously though, you won't find a better armed group of people, nor a more charitable group of people. Extending the olive branch will get you a lot farther than assuming you can take what you want.

WW's post are words to live by if you find yourself in a sitx and decide to head out for parts unknown.

[edit on 10/11/2009 by soldiermom]

reply to post by soldiermom

I agree also with WW.

Us country folk weren't the ones buyin' fancy houses and cars we couldnt afford.
Instead we were saving for the rainy day that always comes.

We wont appreciate bailing out, helping and feeding the stupids once again.

Dont forget to bring plenty of ammo on that 100 mile hike.
You can always trade it for food. Beats wearin' it.
And, good luck whatever you decide.






[edit on 11-10-2009 by dodadoom]

I can tell that you put some serious analytical thinking into this thread, and it could very well turn out that a situation such as this, might in fact be resultant of a major crisis situation.

But, I do have some input about this mass migration of people out of the cities:
Firstly; most people will not be desirous of walking anywhere. Taking into account the demographics of any particular metropolitan area, one would readily observe that a certain segment of the population are underage, infirmed, and elderly. Thereby, approximately 40% of a city’s population will not have the ability to effectively go trekking across the countryside.
You also didn’t state what type of crisis would engender so many people to evacuate their home. It would have to be of a monumental proportion, and occur in such a manner, as the entire population would be panicked and without hope, or resources. Probably not a likely scenario.

FEMA, even though they are basically ineffective, there are also other community based aid groups that would materialize; not to mention the goodness of people itself. The government agencies would also provide some level of aid, even if its ineffective, there would be some kind of aid. Your migration scenario doesn’t take into account any of these potentials.
I gave this some thought myself, and attempted to compile a list of crisis situations that could possibly cause a mass migration as you have described. (In no particular order of importance…)

1) Nuclear Radiation (Attack or Contamination)
2) Chemical Spill/Contamination/Attack
3) Meteor Strike
4) Flooding
5) Tsunami
6) Earthquakes
7) Virus pandemic
8) Volcanic eruptions
9) Terrorist (Street level) Attacks
10) Foreign Invasion
11) Wild Fires
12) Coronal Mass Ejection Scenario (CME)
13) Magnetic Pole Shift
14) Communist (Political) Domination Theories

To be truthful, I cannot imagine one single scenario, where a mass migration as you described would be resultant of any such crisis. Each of the 14 described above, believe it or not, are localized events, with a few exceptions, such as #12, #13, and depending on varying factors, #3. In which case, your bacon is cooked anyway, and no survival or evacuation will be neccessary.

Each therein are “containable, “Survivable” and would in fact result in aid from community organizations, as well as government organizations. I see no reason why a mass evacuation would then be played out as you have described. In the event of a mass migration effect, there would be resources made available to insure population evacuation. Perhaps not in time, but none the less, it would occur.

Also, you go on to depict that “staving masses” as being something akin to ravenous mobs bent on destroying everything in their path, much a locust plague sweeping across the countryside. You base this scenario on what?

Essentially; what you have accomplished is create an evacuation scenario, but failed to offer any credible basis for the execution of said evacuation to support such criteria. In fact, it think it’s more of an event representing your own personal fear, as opposed to analytic forward thinking in “real” terms. I my opinion, this thread is simple put-fear mongering.

Additionally, you don’t give much thought to the “humanity” of people itself. There are good people out there, and not everyone will be the ogre that you think.
I ask you this simple question:
“If you are sitting on a stockpile of food, and three underage girls (16, 14, 8)approach you for food, you would shoot them, turn them down-sending them on their way, or perhaps you would actually forget this silly “Me Against The World” thoughts process, and offer hospitality…?

Though I admire your having the forethought to think this through, it’s really not a perceivable scenario, in my personal opinion.

Your thoughts are…?

reply to post by Franke_In_Alaska

For a real world example, look no further than katrina.
Good stuff everyone! Thanks!

A thread like this is after my heart I swear!

Hope and pray it doesnt come to this, but if it did,
it doesnt hurt to be prepared a little either.
Mama nature sometimes throws a tantrum!
And you dont mess with mother nature! You hunker.

I like your list Franke, but you forgot supervolcanos!
That one would be in your cooked bacon scenario I think!

[edit on 11-10-2009 by dodadoom]

Originally posted by funny_pom

The inherent problems with such broad scoped scenarios is that even if you break it down to cities of just 1 million people,each city has a different environments and availability of resources.The people are different. The geography is different. Levels of preparedness.The density of population outside of the designated Zone.Are you aware of Absorption refrigeration, A process used by large storage facilities because it's easy to maintain.
All it needs is heat source.Exile brings up a specific location And now I'm having troubles with the inherent flaws in your OP.The general area mentioned exports so much food that when people migrate there wont be a way to export all that food. They may even have to scale back some of the food production in the area just to keep it from piling up and going to waste.

Just to re-inform the readers, there are no electronic devices period. No means of government preparedness can be put to use without communication equipment.

Under my scope of knowledge,thats impossible. Explain this to me with details. Using reality as your guide. Your precipitating your desired outcome with statement like that I think.Your going to have substantiate your statement.Then I'll continue.

I currently live in a small city, of just over 1 million, and despite it being located on along a large river system, there is quite a distance to travel, possibly, depending on where your destination is.

I'll walk 300 yard. I'm boiling water and fishing. Right in the middle of one of those cities in Alberta. It's not even likely I'll have to deal with unruly mobs at all.


[edit on 11-10-2009 by The Utopian Penguin]

reply to post by Franke_In_Alaska


I can see your points, but it is not an evacuation i am talking about here, its an exodus of population out of urban areas.


i understand that people are somewhat confused as to the reasoning for the topic at hand, "the countryside" is a rather odd subject perhaps and appears to be taken out of context.
it is not an immediate "lets all go to the country" moment either, its the final phase of a series of events following a worst case scenario:
for whatever reason, a global and complete failure of the worlds electronic grid, and their associated devices.

Although im not sure, in reality, what could cause such a situation to occur, i would say the most logical explanation would be the option you pointed out Franke, the CME event.

I really do apologise for the lacking of background theory as to why i chose this subject, but if you really are interested, please read this post (which really should have been created before this one): www.abovetopsecret.com...

Originally posted by The Utopian Penguin
Under my scope of knowledge,thats impossible. Explain this to me with details. Using reality as your guide. Your precipitating your desired outcome with statement like that I think.Your going to have substantiate your statement.Then I'll continue.

This is not a question of how this will occur in the first place, it is a question as to what happens when or if it does.

I'll walk 300 yard. I'm boiling water and fishing. Right in the middle of one of those cities in Alberta. It's not even likely I'll have to deal with unruly mobs at all.

I do not live right in the middle of the city, i live in the suburbs surrounding it, as do many people.




the over all point here being that the countryside will be an eventual destination for a good number of people. That is not to say that they will become self-sufficient survival experts over night, immediately beginning subsistence farming on whichever patch of land they settle on. Neither am i saying that they will be murderous bandits out for your country estate, raping and pillaging as they go. It will be months perhaps, before people start to move anywhere out the cities in any large numbers. By that time, there will have been major collapses in social order starvation will effect everyone, disease will be spreading like wild fire and perhaps wild fire will not be too far behind. Violence will occur everywhere, over everything and for any reason.

yet, talk about the "human factor", which cannot be avoided as a subject, has been confused. It is something that will be omnipresent throughout the course of events.
However, it wont be a case of "lets help each other out and get through this", rather it will be a case of survival at all costs. If one thing is certain about humans, they are survivors. You all hate to admit it, but if you are in a situation that is so dire, you will commit unspeakable acts to sustain your self.

I direct your thought to this quote, in the thread on food related to this subject:

Originally posted by Citizen Smith
...those who I choose to kill will be both food, and the eradication of competition for scarce food resources. It will be done swiftly, silently, and with grace...whether bunny rabbit or the Joneses from over the road

more will come soon, but now i have to go to school

Sorry for double post, but i had time to re-read some posts.

Originally posted by The Utopian Penguin

Are you aware of Absorption refrigeration, A process used by large storage facilities because it's easy to maintain.
All it needs is heat source.

I haven't heard of that, but i will look into it, share some info on it if you have any.
Could this method function without power at all?

The general area mentioned exports so much food that when people migrate there wont be a way to export all that food. They may even have to scale back some of the food production in the area just to keep it from piling up and going to waste.

Could there still be food production regardless of a lack of an electrical grid? And how far are the facilities from the population centres?

Also Penguin, you should better structure your post, about 3 topics were in a single paragraph and it took me several passes to work out the different things you were saying. Just a friendly piece of advice

Just to re-inform the readers, there are no electronic devices period. No means of government preparedness can be put to use without communication equipment.

my response was

Under my scope of knowledge,that's impossible.

Explain this to me with details using reality as your guide.

Your precipitating your desired outcome with statements like that I think.

Your going to have substantiate your statement.

Then I'll continue.

Now can you give me a link to where it's says that there are no electronic devices.

Can you define an electronic device for me ?

~The definition of Electronics~
Of, based on, operated by, or otherwise involving the controlled conduction of electrons or other charge carriers, especially in a vacuum, gas, or semiconducting material

Now.... verbal and written communication CAN still occur.
A printing press is mechanical.
So is an old typewriter.
A megaphone doesn't need electronics.
PLYWOOD and PAINT and PAPER dont need electronics.

An air balloon with fliers.

Most modes of transportation don't need "electronics"

The cooling units I spoke of use common gasses,water and any flame.

Large storage facilities and camping fridges use it.
I can keep my food cold with A candle !!!!

An electrical device does not need electronics to function.
My lawn mower has no electronics.
theepicenter.com...

My old truck uses A battery. an alternator, and A coil ~no electronics~
Discrete components will still work.

I can make ethanol.
With yeast and sugar.

I can make electricity with wire and A magnet.
Need I say more ?
My horse doesn't need an ipod.
There is A lot of horses here.
My Mountain bike gets me out of the city in an hour.

Originally posted by The Utopian Penguin

Now can you give me a link to where it's says that there are no electronic devices.

I dont understand your point here, are you relating to this article (my OP) or the scenario in general

if it is the prior, this is the link where my entire scenario shall be:
mmdswild.com...

Keep in mind, however, that it is an early draft and is not complete, nor edited.

Now.... verbal and written communication CAN still occur.
A printing press is mechanical.
So is an old typewriter.
A megaphone doesn't need electronics.
PLYWOOD and PAINT and PAPER dont need electronics.

An air balloon with fliers.

A good point, you made here. Although they are limited in their reach, perhaps a balloon being the only exception (although hardly able to reach a specific audience, i.e. an individual), such communication will be wide spread in place of electronics, ie short-wave radio and satellite broadcasting.

I would add that homing pigeons will make a comeback as well as messengers on horseback. Lets not forget the almighty pen or pencil either.

The cooling units I spoke of use common gasses,water and any flame.

Large storage facilities and camping fridges use it.
I can keep my food cold with A candle !!!!

Glad you enlightened me to this technique, although i am curious as to the heat source, or more rather its fuel, in the larger application (if it uses natural gas, there may be a problem in supplying that). However i can easily see it being very useful in the smaller scale, as you said with camping fridges.

An electrical device does not need electronics to function.
My lawn mower has no electronics.
theepicenter.com...

My old truck uses A battery. an alternator, and A coil ~no electronics~
Discrete components will still work.

True again, but there in lies another issue. In situations of mass movement, people tend to attempt to flee an urban centre, and by doing so will choke transportation routes. Also, having a vehicle in working order, with a supply of fuel and that is not bogged in traffic, may draw unwanted attention to your self.

I can make electricity with wire and A magnet.
Need I say more ?

great in the small or individual scale, but not for the large scale, and i doubt that many people will know how to harness such power, or create it in the first place. Crank radios and flashlights use such techniques however, and as such will become incredibly valuable.

There is A lot of horses here.
My Mountain bike gets me out of the city in an hour.

aside from bipedal locomotion, the latter will be a primary mode of transport i would have to say. Horses are tricky, however, as they are difficult to learn to ride. They will most certainly play a role in the years following mind you, as they have done for many, many years.

[edit on 12-10-2009 by funny_pom]

reply to post by whitewave




well said ...and very accurate

reply to post by funny_pom

Rural communities, in particular, will be destroyed as migratory groups pass through. Any and all resources will be taken and when there is nothing left, the group will move on.

What is the the source of this statement ?

Urbanites are NOT migratory.
The majority that die, will do so within 10 miles of their homes.
Most will seek food,water,safety within the confines of an urban environment or very close to it.

There will be A percentage that will try to live in rural environments
Many will fail.

The death levels will be dependent on sustainability of any definable region of goods and services. You have to factor in transportation.


That means that large urban area's will suffer great losses in life.
The majority of people can't sustain themselves in rural area's.

In your W.C.S. I estimate that 60 to 80% of all the population that has very little skills and resources in sustainable living will die.

On the subject of refrigeration, check this out....

Solar refrigeration

Now, I see no reason why you couldn't drill some holes in a black plastic trash can, place wire around the inside, put a metal trash can inside then pack around it with old pillow stuffing/blankets/whatever is on hand and wet them down for a larger version. Close up both lids, place in sun and viola! Your own trash can sized refrigerator.

Talk about barter value....





[edit on 12-10-2009 by americanwoman]

Originally posted by The Utopian Penguin
reply to post by funny_pom

 

Rural communities, in particular, will be destroyed as migratory groups pass through. Any and all resources will be taken and when there is nothing left, the group will move on.

What is the the source of this statement ?

There is none, its purely theoretical, yet based on the fact that that is more or less "mob rule", happens in riots when there is looting, natural disasters when there is lack of law and order.

as for the rest, you are right about urban folk not being the migratory type. However, in times of desperation, people will tend to end up following the person in front of them, especially if they propose an even remotely possible destination, or reason for attempting to reach it.
for some it will be perhaps a last minute, last resort for salvation. Not everyone will charge headlong into the country in swarms of the millions, yet groups in the thousands, perhaps quite spread out, will roam the place. How far they get, and what they do when they get there is determined by their number, and the geography of the area.
A large urban conglomeration may not see anyone from its centre get to anywhere close to countryside, yet smaller cities may see more "success".
There will be movement within an urban centre and that will make up most of the "migration" that people undertake after the event, what ever that may be. Yet the countryside is like a final destination. After that you will see settlement, however unsuccessful or rudimentary it may be.

Originally posted by americanwoman
On the subject of refrigeration, check this out....

Solar refrigeration

Very interesting link there, so simple its a joke that it hasn't been thought of before in such application. Anyone with knowledge of this will be better off indeed, so long as they aren't "hindered" by other factors that is.
Solar powered refrigeration is fantastic, but when you have nothing to put in it, or you are too riddled with dysentery or cholera, its usefulness is somewhat dissipated unfortunetly.
Point being made here, technology, regardless of how innovative, simple, ingenuative and effective is all peanuts if not in a situation in which you are in control of, more or less.

reply to post by funny_pom


So you understand my position.
1. I like your W.C.S. threads,they are fun.
2. Some of the information is skewed and fantasy.
3. They give me the opportunity to think outside the box
3. I often wonder if they belong in A survival forum,instead of Psychology or Human behavior forum,because they are not based on facts.
4. The only real involvement you have in the "survival techniques" forum is presenting and fostering your fantasy W.C.S. based threads.

When you fail to accept some of these points I have referenced to through out your threads,it bothers me.

[edit on 13-10-2009 by The Utopian Penguin]

People in the country are aware that city dwellers intend to invade them during situation x. People in the country are extremely well armed and if they don't recognize you (or your truck) the assumption is that you're a "suspicious character". If you're not 3rd generation born and bred there, you're a "stranger".

You hit the naill on the head with this post ,
I moved to a rural area about 5 years ago, there are some really good people out here, I have been here at least long enough to find out that if push ever came to shove and city dwellers started comming over the bridge to our little island, these slow taking country types are the folks I'll be with.













reply to post by whitewave

reply to post by The Utopian Penguin

I would have to say I agree with you on this, it is almost entirely theoretical (I wouldn’t go so far as to say “fantasy” myself). As one can imagine, there is little to go by in empirical study on the absolute worst possible scenario of global reach (an important aspect, as the world is significantly globalized and interconnected).
Perhaps then it doesn’t belong in the Survival board, but I would have no idea where else it may belong given its overbearing disaster subject matter.
This remains, however, a subject that I am most interested in perusing and shall (when time and available funds permit) be engaging in some active research into its hugely varying aspects.


reply to all the country folk

Your spirits amaze me, even in the event of a flood of disease ridden, desperate and potentially ruthless urban refuges you still man the wall, so to speak.

You should, however, remain cautious. Most certainly, small rural towns will be the least affected of settlements throughout the modern world (affected relative to their population and distance from other centres) yet as a result, they will become the target of those less fortunate.
A small, relatively intact and unaffected town is like a cup of water in the desert, or the pot of gold in the monastery, depending on their intentions.

TUP's go this hands down...

No one will even get to my community, there is a 2000 ft drop on one rd from the south that can be blocked by a couple overturned trucks... and one road to the East that is 360 miles to the nearest city and another to the west 360 miles of the same... 2 lanes...

No one will make it to flood and if we want to stop them it can be done with ease

People just wont get out of the cities anyway, rush hr clogs them let alone a violent exodus...

Being in the city is a sit x is an utter fail to escape for 90%

Hate to say it but you might as well be in a roach motel in the event of a real crisis

Another alternative to refrigeration....not solar...but used successfully in vegetable markets in Third World countries is the Zeer pot.

www.scienceinafrica.co.za...