Dow Jones to be $0 in 3.4 months!!!

According to my scientific calculations, the Dow J was falling at about $98 average in the past 25-30 days... and if at this rate it continues, withink 3.4 months it will hit $0!! surely economy will crash before it hits $0... but it seems as we are not just rolling downhill, we are free falling..... and its part of the plan

Some people don't understand that the downside risk to stocks is always 0.

While I don't think the DJIA will be 0 for a long time, that day will come someday, I'm 100% certain of it.

In 3.4 months the Dow will probably be around 4000.

It's highly unlikely that stock declines are linear.
The closer to zero the faster it will fall...

zoom...zoom.

cheers!

[edit on 3/6/2009 by thegrandillusion]

its kinda like an asteroir, its looks very slow cuz its far away, but as its getting closer and closer its all of a sudden getting faster faster!!! right now we are in the faster faster phase!

Originally posted by NickT916
According to my scientific calculations, the Dow J was falling at about $98 average in the past 25-30 days... and if at this rate it continues, withink 3.4 months it will hit $0!! surely economy will crash before it hits $0... but it seems as we are not just rolling downhill, we are free falling..... and its part of the plan

I would like to see your "math". Are you certified to read the markets? If so what level of certification do you posses? The markets are going down but there is no model for prediction since this is the first time this has ever happenned. Or maybe god told you... The DOW will never be 0. Only an idiot would say that. Go outside.

reply to post by NickT916


I'm not convinced you've done any 'scientific' calculations. The stock market doesn't work like an 'asteroir' either.

I've done my own scientific calculation, and I calculate that you don't know what you're talking about, and just spewing nonsense.

No offense intended of course, just stating my scientific opinion.

Wether this guy's calculations are wrong or not, he still makes a good point in saying that the crash is imminent within the next year or so.

Just for the record, I am sure his calculations are wrong as well, I mean, the above poster is right, no models have been able to predict what is going on now, so we have no data to put this up against.

But I think it's a good thing really, the faster it collapses, the faster we can start rebuilding a proper economy.

~Keeper

You forgot to add in the fact that the lower stock values go, as long as someone thinks there is a chance of recovery, they will at some point decide the price is so low it's too good a deal to pass up. That will stop the fall if enough of it happens.

We have now seen a correction (down to 9000), a slow slide at the end of that (down to 7500), and a slump (to the present 6500 range). I believe the next thing that will happen will be another slump or two, ending up in the 3000-4000 range, then a free-fall to perhaps below 1000. As far as time expectations, I have none.

Just my personal beliefs, so don't go telling me I'm not qualified or being unscientific. I know that already.

TheRedneck

Originally posted by Avarus
The stock market doesn't work like an 'asteroir' either.

Perhaps he means an 'Ass Terrier'? One of those sneaky dogs that bite you in the ass.

I have a mixed breed myself. Collie and Lhasa Apso. I think they call it a Collapso but whatever it's called, it's a great dog to travel with.

[edit on 3/7/2009 by mythatsabigprobe]

Wow,
The asumption is not true or false one week we hear people saying one thing and the next it goes the opposite, i feel rigthnow we are in a free fall.

We on the bottom looking up dont know how far this could go, and want to believe for the best and see the worst. The varibles are not known right now. I feel we are all on Mushrooms and feel slow to act, with fear of not really knowing what is true and the illustion the mushrooms(MEDIA) are feed our brains. The fog is lifting, a reality check is coming and will be a shock, Apparently the Canadian reserve forces are being revampted for civil unrest and diseaster, right inline with the US policy for something they know is coming. I think from was is being said in common places and what i see, is the Shock, fear, uncertainty and soon a panic sell off, part of me thinks that it a fast controlled fall happening though, and it's a staged terrorist attack on all the world to bring prices so low, bankrupting as many as possible and the take over by a certain few larger corps to bring about the control and instate the new world order.

Best wishes, Peace

wow.. ok

first off.. what is the dow???

a combination of 30 companies, i would post them plus the formula to calculate the average but im typing this on my g1 phone.

the dow cannot hit 0 .. that much is certain. when ever a company fails, it is removed from the dow and the largest company in that field takes it's spot. there was talks of removing gm, the problem being there cannot be an internationally based corp. on the dow, and both public american auto companies are insolvent.

the dow that you see today has like 2 or 3 of the original corporations on it.. the rest get replaced with time (also the dow was not 30 companies in the begining sometimes it grows) .. it can also shrink, they have considered removing all autos from the dow for instance.

if a stock is below $1 for 6 months it is removed from the nyex and thus from the dow.

all of the major failed institutions where listed on the s&p i believe.

any ways.. dow cannot be at 0, it wont even get close. 4000-5000 is the lowest i think it will get.

As I have already posted in another thread the indexes won't hit 0.
The more companies fail the more likely it is that the whole banking and financial system will get shut down completely.

I believe this person is just making assumptions and hasnt done any calculations.

The DOW will go lower though, and we might hit a plateau around 3000-4000.

The DOW is close to the bottom. The markets would have already begun to recover if the street liked Obama's plan. They don't and until they do the markets will continue to drop. As soon as he gets a plan out there there that the street has confidence the market will rebound 2000 points in 6 months.

While I think the situation is dire, I don't believe that it is end of the world stuff. The plans, both Bush's and Obama's were ill conceived and constructed in such a manner that they have made the situation worse. Where did all of these toxic assets come from? They did not appear over night. Two things are happening right now that makes the situation much worse that it could be. First, because the banks know that they can get government cash, they are wiping any bad assets off their balance sheets all at once. banks always have assets that they need to wind off of their books and they do it in an orderly fashion. Now they are using this situation to wipe the slate clean because they know they can. The second is a misrepresentation of the value of the assets. With "Mark to Market" rules, if an asset is not worth what is on the books it must be categorized as a toxic asset with no value and be written off. A $100K debt on a house that is now worth $60K. The house is worth $60K, yet by the accounting rules the debt is declared toxic and considered as having no value.

Were they to eliminate the mark to market rules and not allow these banks to wipe their balance sheets clean in one fell swoop, the situation would be much better.

It will get worse, but not much worse. These companys have real value and at some point the folks with the several trillions that is currently sitting on the bench will jump back into the market because there will be a ton of money to be made.

When they get to penny stocks i will start to buy.

But i don't think many investors will let them fall that far.

No way it drops that far. It will be hard for it to drop anymore. You could see 6000 but it will shoot right up again.

you childrens take these threads way to seriously. i took an average fall for the last 30 days, at about 98 per day, you take current 6500 devide by 98 and you get about 3.4 months, its simple as that. I was stating that if it continues at the same rate it would be at zero within that period.

if some of you stop taking things so literally and put some logic to it, of course it will not fall THE SAME for 3.4 months, it might fall faster or slower at any given time, so it MIGHT even take less than 3.4 months. 3.4 months is a universal number, but realisticly it would fall apart by the end of this year... and im sure market will fall apart before it will hit zero.

i personally cant wait for money because ITS TIME FOR CHANGE!

reply to post by NickT916


First of all, I'm not entirely sure who you're calling 'childrens'. Second, your math is, quite plainly, wrong.

We're not necessarily taking these threads too seriously, we just don't like misinformation. You obviously don't understand how the stock market works, so is your thread just an attempt to gain points or something?

If you're going to post something like this, please provide some reputable data and sources.

I think you underestimate the time frame and overestimate how far it can fall.

The market has already dropped 50% from it's highest point last year.

The DOW has been dropping at a constant average rate of 1% a day for the last month. If it continues to drop at that rate it will be 0 in 50 business days, so lets say 2 months for the sake of convenience.

Ignore the occasional newscast which shouts up a daily upswing. In any week the market looses 5% avg. The rest is noise.

Zero is a virtual impossability. In the great depression it lost 89% of it's value.

Currently the Federal Govt is about 20% of the economy, that would leave about 30% of institutional wealth, almost none of the personal wealth.

No one knows what would happen because the country was primarily aggrarian in the Depression. Today even our agriculture is industrialized.

Meaning that even the farmers could end up unemployed. Like it or not we may be heading to a socialist government in every sense of the word just to try and survive this mess.

When everyone is unemployed, and there is nothing left to buy, it will require either the promise of a socialist savior to get people to work for apparently nothing or the point of a gun.

I wonder if Chariman Obama will be printing up little red books, like Chairman Mao.

Buckle up Flash! We're going in!

[edit on 8-3-2009 by Cyberbian]

Originally posted by NickT916
According to my scientific calculations, the Dow J was falling at about $98 average in the past 25-30 days... and if at this rate it continues, withink 3.4 months it will hit $0!! surely economy will crash before it hits $0... but it seems as we are not just rolling downhill, we are free falling..... and its part of the plan

It will not hit zero, but 1982 levels are technically possible due
to the massive derivatives fraud.

Warren Buffett explained all that in his marketwatch article about
a year ago how it is over 500 Trillion in derivatives with a " T ".