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A research team led by geographer Thomas Gillespie of the University of California-Los Angeles used geographic analytical tools that have been successful in locating urban criminals and endangered species.
Basing their conclusion on nighttime satellite images and other techniques, the scientists suggest bin Laden may well be in one of three compounds in Parachinar, a town 12 miles from the Pakistan border. The research incorporates public reports of bin Laden's habits and whereabouts since his flight from the Tora Bora region of Afghanistan in 2001.
The results, reported in the MIT International Review, are being greeted with polite but skeptical interest among people involved in the hunt for bin Laden, the al-Qaeda leader behind 9/11. Bin Laden's whereabouts are considered "one of the most important political questions of our time," the study notes.
"I've never really believed the sitting-in-a-cave theory. That's the last place you would want to be bottled up," Gillespie says. The study's real value, he says, is in combining satellite records of geographic locations, patterns of nighttime electricity use and population-detection methods to produce a technique for locating fugitives.
"Island biographic theory suggests bin Laden would end up in the biggest and least isolated city of the region," Gillespie says, one among about 26 towns within a 20-mile distance of Tora Bora.
"To really improve the model, you would need to include intelligence data from 2001 to 2006," Gillespie says. "It has been eight years. Honestly, I think it is time to be more open. This is a very important issue for the public."
The study also makes assumptions that bin Laden might need:
• Medical treatment, requiring electricity in an urban setting.
• Security combining few bodyguards and isolation that requires a walled compound.
• Tree cover to shield outdoor activities from aircraft.
Originally posted by die_another_day
shouldn't Bin Laden be dead by now if this is true?
And also, I won't be surprised if the CIA used tactical nukes on those places.
Originally posted by Majorion
Originally posted by die_another_day
shouldn't Bin Laden be dead by now if this is true?
And also, I won't be surprised if the CIA used tactical nukes on those places.
So you're absolutely certain, that Osama Bin Laden represents a threat to the CIA?.. He's not working with them?
It doesn't matter if he's dead or alive. His task seems to be over at the moment.