Is this an early warning of whats to come?

Due to my work and having gone shopping this weekend with my wife I am seeing an increase in empty shelves at the stores and a harder and harder time getting parts for repairs of our plant in a timely fashion. I am starting to think that this is not just an indicator of a bad economy but could be the early warning sign of much worse to come. Items that I had taken for granted are not to be had, some seem to be a small thing but others are very troubling to me. If you would post what you are seeing in your industry or your stores. The items that I have noticed.
1. Boiler replacement tubes. Now it is a six to 8 month delivery for this. If you have a boiler tube leak and you do not have the proper tube material you can not repair the boiler and can not make electricity.
2. WalMart was almost completely sold out of ammunition.
3. I can not find my favorite salsa (this may seem petty but growing up in the south west this just chaps my b*tt) any where in town.
4. I am looking for a 12 gau. coach gun in a common make and it is not to be had from any wholesaler in the nation.

These may seem like little things but this may be the canary in the coal mine.

[edit on 15-2-2009 by waterdoctor]

I've bitched about this somewhere else:

Price of supermarket "own brand" foods; some have markedly increased in recent months (between October and January).

Chopped tomatoes : 23 pence to 37 pence.
Baked beans : 22 pence to 33 pence.

Bizarrely cans of red kidney beans remain around 15 pence.

All tins are the 400g approx. size (double prices for approximate U.S. price in cents)

Funny you should mention the boiler tubes. I myself work for a company that manufactures steel tubing, and boiler tubes were once our number one product.

With every thing going on in the economy right now, all of our automotive work has dropped about 25% in the past six months. Boiler tubes are almost never made in our plant anymore. Maybe several tons per year.

I have noticed something recently that is very interesting to me. Within the last year we have started producing hundreds of tons of drill rods. Every size imaginable. Our customer for these drill rods (I will omit the company's name) is one that specializes in exploratory drilling. Basically they are drilling for any type of valuable natural resource.

One of our biggest competitors has just announced that they will no longer be manufacturing tubing for the automotive industry. Oddly enough, we have not seen ANY new contracts come our way.

I can only predict that the auto industry is completely screwed. And our company might be as well unless we can start making the boiler tubes again which once drove our business.

[edit on 2/15/2009 by JesterMan]

[i
4. I am looking for a 12 gau. coach gun in a common make and it is not to be had from any wholesaler in the nation.
[edit on 15-2-2009 by waterdoctor]

I'm not expert in the US domestic gun market, but I do remember a famous American gun writer Jeff someone debating shotguns in depth many years ago and he reccomended something called the Savage Stevens side by side external hammer as one option, and the old browning trech gun as another. My own choice was for a different type and I ended up with a Mossberg 500 in stainless steel with folding stock and mag extention. Wish I still had it.

I have not signed in any certed boiler tube made in the US in a number of years. Even getting SA210 T1 is a problem. We have only been able to buy tubing if we took the whole mill run. I think that you might be in better shape than you think if your marketing guys will make some calls.

I Don't believe its a indication of things to come so much as it is a symptom of a problem with a business model. The business model is called just in time shipping. Just in time shipping in theory is a great thing. Nobody stores or ware houses any thing because they receive every thing as they need it.

As I said great theory but it all hinges on every thing being perfect. A single minor accident in one part of the world can mess with the whole chain. God help us all if there is a crises that effects more then one area. shipments get delayed and the few items that were on the shelves get bought either threw panic buying or normal use buying and then people see empty shelves. Empty shelves cause people to panick and then they buy up needless items out of fear of a shortage. That makes more empty shelves and it then becomes a self replicating chain.

Its all based on the Japanese business models. Or so I was told when My shop switched to it. I Thought I was going to get fired when I questioned the owner of the company about his decision to switch to the so called Japanese way. It has pretty much shut our shop down. instead of stocking the tube we need to make the products we make we order them just on time so they are suppose to arrive just on time. They never do then the company's who buy from us pull there orders and switch to other company's who are ware housing the tube and can make there product actually on time.

Yes the economy is bad, its horrible but one of the reasons for the acceleration of the decline is stupid ideas like just on time shipping with no ware house back up. Well that's my way of looking at it any way.

reply to post by waterdoctor


It may only be your local market. On points 2 and 4 for example, my local Walmart was fully stocked with ammunition just yesterday. They also had what appeared to be a Spartan single shot 12 gauge on the rack for $117 (I didn't handle it and couldn't see the tag clearly, but I think that's what it was). Didn't see a double barrel 'coach gun', but most people don't use them around here and I doubt they sell very many.

On the other hand, you can get a Mossberg 500 at Walmart for $217, which is probably a better value anyway. That's probably going to be my next purchase, though seeing that rock bottom price on the single shot, I'm definitely going to hit the local hock shops soon to see if I can find a good used one for around $50.

The point is, the shelves here were full and this is an area where I'm sure they sell a lot of them, too.


[edit on 15-2-2009 by vor78]

Originally posted by waterdoctor
Due to my work and having gone shopping this weekend with my wife I am seeing an increase in empty shelves at the stores and a harder and harder time getting parts for repairs of our plant in a timely fashion. I am starting to think that this is not just an indicator of a bad economy but could be the early warning sign of much worse to come. Items that I had taken for granted are not to be had, some seem to be a small thing but others are very troubling to me. If you would post what you are seeing in your industry or your stores. The items that I have noticed.
1. Boiler replacement tubes. Now it is a six to 8 month delivery for this. If you have a boiler tube leak and you do not have the proper tube material you can not repair the boiler and can not make electricity.
2. WalMart was almost completely sold out of ammunition.
3. I can not find my favorite salsa (this may seem petty but growing up in the south west this just chaps my b*tt) any where in town.
4. I am looking for a 12 gau. coach gun in a common make and it is not to be had from any wholesaler in the nation.

These may seem like little things but this may be the canary in the coal mine.

[edit on 15-2-2009 by waterdoctor]

For Number 2, walmart is not actualy out of ammo, they are limiting it, so people dont hord it. Not exactly sure why, but they just put a min. amount on the shelf to try to discourage people to hord it and cause a real shortage.
think about how much ammo they sell in a day nation wide.. if they stocked the shelf's and let people buy tons in a day, it would cause a actual shortage. I am not sure if the request came from corp headquarters or from the mfg of the ammo. But i've seen the back stock room, there is plenty of ammo there.

If you need ammo , just ask them to get you some from the back. There is a chance they could be out for a short time, due to shipping and weather, but odds are they have it in the gun room in back.

[edit on 15-2-2009 by severdsoul]

A lot of this is simply a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Our local WalMart has a reasonable amount of ammo.

Lots of it to be had at the gunshow last week.

I did overhear several dealers/vendors talking to buyers about guns & ammo being outlawed and you better buy now.
Sellers of anything will tell you anything to make a sale.


I hesitate to mention it, but when the 1st gasoline crisis hit, Johnny Carson quipped about what would happen if there was a toilet paper shortage.

Guess what was flying off the shelves and mostly gone the next day.

All about supply and demand as well as what's in the pipeline.

Shopped today for groceries and no problems in finding everything on my list.

[edit on 15-2-2009 by Desert Dawg]

[edit on 15-2-2009 by Desert Dawg]

If you want a 12 ga, get a pump. God forbid you have to actually brandish it a someone, but a least the sound of a pump racking a shell
is known to everyone so it would help as a deterent.......

reply to post by waterdoctor

The ammo deal is partly due to the ammunition accountability act
that is being passed in some states, and will cause the price of all
ammo to go up even if it doesn't pass in your state the manufacturer
will spread the cost around so that they can survive as a business.

Bringing in ammo from outside the US like some dealers do now
to get low prices on bulk ammo will be ILLEGAL.

I guess this is their end around on taking the guns away.

Make the ammo so expensive the poor can't afford it.

Same deal here in my area, I go by walmart and buy a few boxes
if they have them in stock, they usually don't and I drive to 3 or 4
different ones.

The areas of town that full of liberals sometimes has ammo,
and no I am not a republicrat.

Also some of the smaller dealers get a shipment in now and then,
but it goes VERY quick, I got none of it 3 outta 4 times.

Seen the same thing in walmart with certain LONG SHELF LIFE
food items, none to be had, all out, totally gone.

It is like someone came in and totally bought them out of that one item.

Ppl are starting to horde certain foods.

For long term reasons I highly recommend you get some non-GMO
seeds, some states are outlawing regular seeds due to monsanto's
corrupt lobby, mine is one of them.

Monsanto is coming for your non-terminator seeds

Good Luck to you all !



[edit on 15-2-2009 by Ex_MislTech]

Originally posted by severdsoul

For Number 2, walmart is not actualy out of ammo, they are limiting it, so people dont hord it.

I am not sure if the request came from corp headquarters or from the mfg of the ammo. But i've seen the back stock room, there is plenty of ammo there.

If you need ammo , just ask them to get you some from the back. There is a chance they could be out for a short time, due to shipping and weather, but odds are they have it in the gun room in back.
[edit on 15-2-2009 by severdsoul]

Good news to hear they got some in back room where you are located.

Here in Oklahoma it is a different story.

Here I know the ppl in sporting goods section of the store, and all
the ones I see the little tags saying out of stock on the shelf say
yes we really are out of stock.

The small gun dealer shops that are buying in bulk here really are
out as well too in certain calibers.

The online places that have the best prices on high powered ammo
are out as well.

There are some ovre priced ammo types at all locations that are
in stock, but the bulk cheap ammo in certain calibers is gone and
stays gone.

Good Luck to you all !

Originally posted by Pinktip
If you want a 12 ga, get a pump. God forbid you have to actually brandish it a someone, but a least the sound of a pump racking a shell
is known to everyone so it would help as a deterent.......

I have a pump and an auto, the coach gun is for my wife.

Originally posted by Ex_MislTech


Good news to hear they got some in back room where you are located.

Here in Oklahoma it is a different story.

Here I know the ppl in sporting goods section of the store, and all
the ones I see the little tags saying out of stock on the shelf say
yes we really are out of stock.

The small gun dealer shops that are buying in bulk here really are
out as well too in certain calibers.

The online places that have the best prices on high powered ammo
are out as well.

There are some ovre priced ammo types at all locations that are
in stock, but the bulk cheap ammo in certain calibers is gone and
stays gone.

Good Luck to you all !

Im in Montana, lived in Oklahoma a while as well as mo,and ks.

sad if they are actually out then the hording has already started which that alone is going to drive the prices up, let alone the coming taxes.

i picked up 2 boxes of 9mm the other day with no problem.
i relay need to stock up on 30.06 and 270 for hunting season this year but haven't been able to yet with a lil one at home. amazing how much they cost. but well worth it. i usually buy a few boxes for each gun around this time so come hunting season its one less thing to worry about.

Since my SO and I don't get into too many stores when we're on the road I can't testify as to what the stores in our area of Arkansas look like.

I can however tell you that due to the economic downturn our work has slowed down somewhat. IN general we drive about 5.5k miles a week as a team truck. Over the past month we have seen a very steady decline in our miles. Our dispatcher has applogized time and again but says there just sin't that much freight out there right now. Heck, that's why I"m able to be here this weekend on the forums. Picked up a load that goes less than 900 miles on Friday and it doesn't deliver until Monday afternoon. (To give you a general idea we usually run 1k miles a day easy).

I don't forsee this improving much over the coming months. Economic Stimulus plan not withstanding (since it all goes to government spending instead of to us).

Unemployment is continueing to rise. As people loose their jobs, they will, of necessity, spend less money. This will lead to more businesses cutting spending (i.e. loss of more jobs) and the cycle continues.

All we can do is prepare prepare prepare. Take what you can get when you can get it and store it away. Some people call it hoarding, I call it preparing.

After I read your post I had to run to the grocery to get a few things for the house and food for our cats. I did notice a lot of bare shelves at Krogers and at Save-A-Lot. Even the pet food was almost depleted. It's been like that for the last couple of weeks though, so it could be due to the ice storm we just had... It bears further watching however. thanks for the post. Starred and flagged.

reply to post by LLoyd45


This is just a little information however it is telling. It seems that we have people in laege numbers stocking up on things. We have a business model that depends on "every thing being perfect" (angryamerican) that is now starting to fail. We can infer that we have a rapidly contracting demand due to the reduction in trucking "Over the past month we have seen a very steady decline in our miles." (cnichols). That the production of metals (gold/silver?) is going great guns "Within the last year we have started producing hundreds of tons of drill rods." (JesterMan).

Granted we have limited information here but if this is the wide spread state of things what is it telling us besides the economy is in the cr@per.

reply to post by waterdoctor


Well first off, learn to make your own Salsa! Much better...

I'm in Oklahoma and I see no shortage in ammo just crazy prices. Over a year and a half ago I paid just over $10 US for a box of .45 ACP. That's doubled now. You can buy reloads at shows or ranges that are cheaper than new issue in the store.

I have family that works for a railroad. Shipments are way down, and the junior conductors are not getting as much work. If the transport system that ships us our goods isn't making as many runs you can bet it won't get to your shelf as fast.

no, the OP IS CORRECT! I too am looking for a 12g coach gun-20" barrell, exposed hammers et.al
Google it or look around yourself. Everyone is OUT OF STOCK. There are 20 gauges available but no 12G.
Local Gun Show is this weekend so maybe I'll find somthing.

Grab this one while you can...it's even purdy...

GunBroker

edit...and ya, exposed hammers are really hard to find

[edit on 2/16/09 by Bigfoot209th]