Lets Talk About The Market

reply to post by redhatty


I had read reports on the Bloomberg service that Japan's currency was rising due to the G7 not talking about currency? .. Other then that, I don't follow Forex markets anymore and your charts don't work.

DOW Futures - 101.00
7,678.00

S&P 500 806.40 -13.70 -1.67%

Of course, this means nothing for tomorrow.. in this volatile market.

reply to post by Rockpuck


The Yen is tanking, as is the Euro and GBP

The dollar is being bought all over the world!

Bernanke's swap lines are gonna bite us in the arse

Yeah I just noticed the futures. WHo knows I might still have some hope for my goldman short I think this week looks to be ugly. You are going to have the bailout passed and I think some really bad news is going to come out that will break us below the dreaded 7500 level. If that happens watch out.....

Edit to add look at where the futures are more so than down 101 they are at 7677 which means they think the down will hit at least 7677 which is actually much lower than the 7850 we closed at...almost 200 pts lower.

[edit on 16-2-2009 by tjeffersonsghost]

reply to post by tjeffersonsghost


There's like a 90 pt conversion, so it would only be 110 down at open. I don't understand exactly how that works, I just accept it

We may see them get those stops under 800 in the S&P futures afterall. We are just 7 handles (1.00 increment points) above that level currently.

Trading Day 2-17-09

Ok we today was a crazy day. It was started last night really with the piece written by KD which is seen here...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Redhatty jumped on that and it turned out to be some interesting news. We I should say non news because the source of the money moving still is not known. The markets all over the world was down especially in eastern europe where there are some rumors flying around about a country or a countries central bank being insolvent. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

Now on our markets we were down pretty much the whole day with some rally attempts especially in the last hour. All attempts however were pretty much quelled. As I have pointed out all throughout this thread we have now broken out south of the bearish pennant. This is not a good sign and Im am sticking with my bearish attitude. The chart is shown here this is the SPX daily....




I think this week will be an ugly one so for you shorts out there Id say get ready to cash in this week. For you longs...well cost average baby cost average.


EDIT TO ADD: That we are at a double bottom on the Dow daily chart. That could actually be bullish. Lets see if we break that double bottom tomorrow.....

[edit on 17-2-2009 by tjeffersonsghost]

Originally posted by redhatty
There's like a 90 pt conversion, so it would only be 110 down at open. I don't understand exactly how that works, I just accept it

Each day after market close, the large trading desks assign 'fair market value' to futures contracts. FMV is based on the relationship between the price of a derivative (e.g., S&P front-month futures contract), and the cash price of the underlying index (S&P 500).

FMV = the value of the S&P 500 cash index...plus...the interest you would pay your broker/bank to borrow the total purchase price for each stock in the index (theoretical cost)...minus...dividends received until contract expiration. In essence, FMV is the net cost to carry stocks until settlement.

If you keep in mind the total value of the stocks in the S&P 500 cash index vs. the face/time value of the relevant futures contract...FMV attempts to reconcile this disparity.

CNBC' Mark Hanes might offer a more coherent definition: What Is "Fair Value?"

GL

I've looked around, and can't seem to find a chart showing how the market does whenever B. Obama speaks. Anyone have one?

Trading Day 2/18/2009

Ok well looks like the market is going to open higher. We hit that double bottom from yesterday so naturally there will be a bounce. I tend to feel the bounce will not stick. I feel we will bounce and then collapse through the floor of the Nov lows. So bulls prepare for a nice day for you you need it......

www.stocktiming.com...

here's a good chart and commentary pertaining to oversold/undersold indicators and trends and a few analogy's to where we are today....obviously any major news that is unaccounted for in the mkts can steer these indicators into higher standard deviations from neurtal

but the basic argument suggests that the market will not go much lower in the near term, but the post from yesterday also balances this logic out with the belief that should INSTITUTIONAL selling pressures increase (click the link for tuesday) then we could go lower (and this could happen if we get a close below the DJIA nov. lows (7400's) or the SPX nov lows (740'ish)

and P.S obama's administration and the fED seem abit scared to give the bondholders of the big investment banks the HAIRCUTS they need on their bad debt! instead they would like US taxpayers to finance these people. who are the bond holders well some are Foreign central banks, Foreign soverign wealth funds, Foreign govt's as well as some politically connected investment funds domestically. Hopefully taking them to the barber will not cause us to lose their support in the gov't bond markets...or the fed will just buy the debt in that case. rock in a hard place

[edit on 18-2-2009 by cpdaman]

I know you're partial to Silver tjeffersonsghost...just a heads-up. J.P. Morgan, the iShares SLV custodian is only 1.5MM ounces shy of it's maximum inventory capacity (264.5MM ounces) as specified by the SLV prospectus.

For reference, yesterday SLV added 4.93MM ounces for a current inventory of approx 263MM oz.

Point being, unless PM's correct to lower levels here (a possibility), we could see increased volatility in the POS until an additional SLV custodian is assigned.

SLV custodial guidelines can be found on page 31 of the iShares prospectus.

GL

reply to post by OBE1


Means that more Silver will be hitting the physical market as they can't dump on SLV any longer.

Any idea how close they are to the cap on GLD?

With respect to GLD, I'm not aware of a 'cap' on HSBC' custodial liability. Current inventory is listed at just over 33MM oz.

Around the beginning of 07, JPM changed its SLV custodial liability from 1BB oz..to..264,550,265oz. At the same time, all references to the term 'Bullion' were dropped from the original prospectus.

Initially: The Trust is designed to provide a vehicle for investors to own interest in silver bullion.

Today: The iShares are intended to constitute a simple and cost-effective means of making an investment similar to an investment in silver.

Are SLV shares backed by actual bullion...or a combination of bullion/derivatives? Questions still abound regarding the integrity of SLV/GLD 'deliveries'.

GL