Alaska - Mt Redoubt Volcano could erupt within days

reply to post by TrueAmerican


We are getting more complete info locally. Redoubt is still expected to go over the next two weeks. Those spikes you see are constant activity. Redoubt is far from silent.

I've been learning about what things mean and even got some questions answered directly from the AVO team.

They talk to the local TV and Radio daily. Nothing has changed in their prediction. I had a long conversation with a man who has been here through 3 prior eruptions. He tells me that the only problem is with the ash blowing around and that won't happen this time due to the time of year.

If anyone is waiting for us to blow up, that is not what is about to happen. We will have a nuisance for a day or two and have to change our cars air filters a time or two. At most we should see 1/10 of an inch of ash or less.

reply to post by Blaine91555


Well I gotta say Blaine, you being there and being affected are taking it better than I am. Your original concern was a bit infectious. But it's funny how now you are the bearer of soothing words. Hats off to you bro! I think I read somewhere on there though that they expect the actual eruption to be preceded by more sustained harmonic tremors. And since we haven't seen any of those in days, it is possible the magma reached where it was going, and the cap is holding. For now.

I just caught them talking about Redoubt on our local news in Vancouver, BC on CTV.

I thought they played it up to sound more serious comparing it to "when St Helens blew" and saying "Officials in Alaska, Yukon and here in BC are bracing for the possible eruption of a volcano" and said it would effect our air quality and flight schedules.

They had the last eruption date wrong though!

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
reply to post by Blaine91555

 

Well I gotta say Blaine, you being there and being affected are taking it better than I am. Your original concern was a bit infectious. But it's funny how now you are the bearer of soothing words. Hats off to you bro! I think I read somewhere on there though that they expect the actual eruption to be preceded by more sustained harmonic tremors. And since we haven't seen any of those in days, it is possible the magma reached where it was going, and the cap is holding. For now.

i would disagree, i see some HT around 14:30 to about 15:10 UTC today (although not sustained), although not too big ...

[edit on 5/2/09 by geogeek]

reply to post by geogeek


I'd be curious to see if they actually consider that a harmonic tremor. My opinion is I doubt it. It is NOTHING compared to what was happening days ago. Those are the kind I was referring to. Intense, sustained, and saturating the graph. Those are so much of nothing relatively speaking, I am surprised you'd even mention it. But hey, it's always fun to disagree for the sole sakes of disagreement. I just got better things to do.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


HT down deeper in the plumbing is not going to necessarily saturate the recorders the way you want to see it , but it does indicate that fluids/and or melt are on the move .... Take it for what is worth (or not ...)

is it HT ? , well there are 2 options :
1) Wind Noise
2) HT ...
since it lasts only

A long and strong harmonic tremor (that's what it looks like to me) just occurred on RSO seismic station on GEE! It looks like it's not over yet.

[edit on 2009/2/5 by Shirakawa]

reply to post by Shirakawa


has it started to pop ?? ... d**n , no webcams ....

[edit on 5/2/09 by geogeek]

Latest update

2009-02-05 11:38:25
Starting at 11:18 AKST this morning, a strong burst of seismic tremor was recorded at Redoubt stations. Radar data show that no eruption occurred.

Tremor is ongoing but has decreased in amplitude

AVO

reply to post by Shirakawa


Yes, now that is pretty clearly a sustained harmonic tremor.

www.avo.alaska.edu...

And even that is considerably smaller than some we've seen already at Redoubt. This is why my post above to geogeek, which I really felt just to be nitpicking at me.

OBVIOUSLY there are deeper movements that don't register like this one. But a more critical issue is when they are closer to the top, which is much more indicative of impending eruption. So I stand by my statement, geogeek. Believe what you want.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Another update:

2009-02-05 12:26:13
Unrest at Redoubt Volcano continues. Seismic activity remains elevated well above background levels. Starting at 11:18 AKST (20:18 UTC), a burst of more intense seismic tremor occurred. This episode lasted for about 4 minutes and was the most most energetic since January 30. Radar and pilot observations confirm our analysis that no eruption occurred. Web camera and satellite images from this morning have been obscured by clouds

reply to post by violet


What's your point violet? That merely reflects what I've been saying. Yeah it was the biggest since January 30, but so what. It still didn't saturate graphs the way some others did. You posted this thread January 27th. Go read the OP. The Sunday they are referring to is January 25th. And it was the intense tremors leading up to the 25th that caused them to initiate the WATCH. Several larger sustained HT's happened from inception to the 30th. And they were much longer sustained and more intense than this last one. I just don't get it. I really should stick to music.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

Every one of those seismic bursts indicats higher pressure building and the more likely that the puppy will blow its top.. Volcanos here are different than most.. We have, in a sense, pressurized, explosive, eruptions due to that great ring of fire. Alaska is a VERY seismic region, obviously so it's always releasing pressure and rebuilding pressure i.e. our wonderful mountain ranges. If Redoubt does not blow er top I will be very, very suprised!

reply to post by geogeek

:-) Dont you love being right!

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
reply to post by violet

 

What's your point violet? That merely reflects what I've been saying. Yeah it was the biggest since January 30, but so what. It still didn't saturate graphs the way some others did. You posted this thread January 27th. Go read the OP. The Sunday they are referring to is January 25th. And it was the intense tremors leading up to the 25th that caused them to initiate the WATCH. Several larger sustained HT's happened from inception to the 30th. And they were much longer sustained and more intense than this last one. I just don't get it. I really should stick to music.

My point was posting a new update
I bolded the parts I deemed important for others following this volcano's activity.

I made no comment to you directly, just used your post as a 'reply to".
Nobody is arguing with you! No need to be so sensitive.

To Violet, Thank you for this thread!

To Geogeek, on January 30th I watched 4 to 5 hours of sustained graph filling that started after a period where I saw the webcam steam plume disappear.

Last night AVO mentioned the plume disappearing on the cam (which we couldn't see well on the net) and today the many-hour of graph filling happened again.

Do you think there's a correlation or is this coincidence? If there is a known correlation, what does it mean? Does it help separate HT from sustained quake periods?

Visuals of plumes no longer visible; followed by graph-filling.

Thank you Geogeek!

edit typo

[edit on 5-2-2009 by Trexter Ziam]

Originally posted by violet
I made no comment to you directly, just used your post as a 'reply to".

You think I am letting you off that easy? Not a chance. That IS a comment to me directly, otherwise you wouldn't have used my post to try to counter me. And you've done that before in this thread. I let the last one slide but not this time. Usually people don't reply to someone unless it directly involves what that person has said. Next time how about just hitting reply, not reply to, unless you are specifically talking to me! There's already enough confusion around here running rampant. Thanks!

Originally posted by TrueAmerican

You think I am letting you off that easy? Not a chance. That IS a comment to me directly, otherwise you wouldn't have used my post to try to counter me. And you've done that before in this thread. I let the last one slide but not this time. Usually people don't reply to someone unless it directly involves what that person has said. Next time how about just hitting reply, not reply to, unless you are specifically talking to me!

Yes it was a reply to your post in discussing the seismic activity, but was not directed at you personally with me being argumentative. I should have just hit reply to someone else's post who isn't so sensitive or reading into things that aren't there. ... but really who cares?

reply to post by Trexter Ziam


hard to know what is happening in the plumbing system ... I would just put it down to statistical chance/fluke , unless U start seeing more negative correlations between HT & stream plumes ( another way of saying I have no clue, really ...)


I wouldn't draw any conclusions at this point/time about any apparent correlations .... maybe later it will be safer to draw a conclusion or two




[edit on 5/2/09 by geogeek]

New Update.

Redoubt Volcano Latest Observations 2009-02-05 15:23:55 A sustained burst of volcanic tremor has just occurred, but this did not result in any eruptive activity and no ash emission has occurred. AVO is monitoring and evaluating the situation closely. Redoubt is still at aviation color code ORANGE and volcano alert level WATCH

She must be close now?