Alaska - Mt Redoubt Volcano could erupt within days

Hey everyone,
I just moved from Alaska after living there for 12 years. Two years of that was on the Kenai Peninsula which is close to Redoubt. If there is anyone that will get a lot of ash it will most likely be the towns of Kenai and Soldotna and outlying areas. Anchorage will get ash too I am sure, but probably not in large quantities. However, this is all unpredictable too due to wind currents. Even a little ash can cause havoc. That stuff is heavy when it gets wet and very conductive. Here is a picture of the last eruption:

Eruption Link:
www.gso.uri.edu...

That eruption occurred between 1989-1990 and lasted 5 months. en.wikipedia.org...(Alaska)

It will be interesting to see if this eruption is bigger than the last one.

[edit on 1/28/2009 by wrangell76]

[edit on 1/28/2009 by wrangell76]

reply to post by wrangell76


'
Wow, that picture looks like a nuke bomb went off. It has the mushroom cloud look.

reply to post by questioningall


Yeah it does for sure...Just think, that eruption was smaller than St. Helens. Yikes!

(second line)....

[edit on 1/28/2009 by wrangell76]

Latest update from AVO

Intermittent volcanic seismicity continues to be recorded at Redoubt.
Volcanic unrest continues at Redoubt. Seismicity currently remains above background and the possibility of an eruption exists.

AVO

"Seismicity is still above background levels, though it's not the same as it was a few days ago. We'll continue to be keeping a close eye on it," said Matt Haney, a seismologist with AVO.

Large holes in the snow cover had been melted near the summit and AVO posted several photos of steaming fumaroles, or vents in the side of the mountain.

Michelle Coombs, a geologist at AVO, said that measuring the rotten egg-smelling sulfuric gas, along with the far less offensive carbon dioxide being emitted from the mountain, can tell observers what's going un underneath the summit cone.

"Carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide's main source is magma," Coombs said. "First of all their presence tells us there's magma at some depth, and the abundance of the gasses can tell how much and how deep it is."

A rise in the concentration of emissions could forewarn of a pending eruption.

Data collected on Tuesday however, appeared to be inconclusive.

Coombs said that a lack of wind made measurement of the plume difficult as the gasses were diffusing into the atmosphere.

"We definitely confirmed that there's sulfur dioxide, but that's maybe all we can say," Coombs said.

... scientists at the observatory have two theories as to what may be going on underneath the volcano

One theory is simply that old magma from the 1989-90 eruption shifted, allowing gasses that were trapped beneath to suddenly begin escaping.

The second, and more likely theory in Coombs' opinion, is that there's been a new injection of magma.

Coombs explained that about 4 to 6 miles below the volcano is a magma reservoir.

"It's not just below surface waiting to erupt. Often these systems can get boosted from great depths to intermediate depths. From there it's very hard to tell if it will continue to rise to the surface," Coombs said.

The best bet for predicting an eruption will be the use of several seismometers located around the peak, recording every twitch the mountain makes and sending it back to AVO in real time.

Should the volcano erupt, it won't spew magma like the volcanoes of Hawaii, but will instead inject ash into the atmosphere.

If the wind's blowing in the right direction this could make for a scenic view, however, if the wind directs the ash cloud toward the peninsula, residents can expect ashfall.

During its last eruption, some areas of the peninsula saw ash up to five millimeters deep.

For central peninsula residents monitoring the volcano's changing moods, Scott Walden, emergency management coordinator for the Kenai Peninsula Borough, urged people to monitor weather band radios, television or radio stations and to be prepared.

Walden said he and his staff were prepared for an eruption should one occur.

source

reply to post by violet


I live near Anchorage and the only thing we have to worry about in the city is ash cementing our carburetors. That's where most of the damage come from the last eruption. The worst danger that exists for infrastructure from this eruption is some mild earthquakes (mild due to the fact that the epicenter is just over 100 miles away). As far as loss-of-life; maybe if a jetliner pilot was stupid enough to fly into the ash cloud someone might die.

reply to post by ll__raine__ll

I live in anchorage and i was here when it erupted in 1990 they never told us to evacuate, just to ride it out. probably tell us the same thing this time, lets just hope we don't get as much ash this time. I hope it blows. we could use some excitment around here.

Redoubt again eh?

I remember the 89 eruption, watching the news there was a story about a KLM 747 jetliner flying right through that ash cloud, in the television reports they showed images of the plane, all of the paint was sandblasted off, along with anything that was not made of metal (plastics or fibreglass)

The best part of the story, they survived. All four engines died, and they made it... read about it here in an archived report...

LEAD: All four engines of a KLM Boeing 747 temporarily shut down yesterday when the jumbo jet flew through a cloud of ash from the erupting Redoubt Volcano in Alaska, Government officials reported.

All four engines of a KLM Boeing 747 temporarily shut down yesterday when the jumbo jet flew through a cloud of ash from the erupting Redoubt Volcano in Alaska, Government officials reported.

The huge airliner descended from 25,000 feet to 12,000 feet in eight minutes before the crew was able to restart two of the engines, and all four were operating when the plane, traveling from Amsterdam to Tokyo, landed at 12:25 P.M. in Anchorage, where it had been scheduled to stop for refueling.

None of the 231 passengers and 14 crew members on board the plane, Flight 867, were hurt.

query.nytimes.com...

Lets hope the air-traffic controllers at Anchorage are on top of things this time if it erupts.

AVO issued a very long Information statement.

The most likely scenario is an eruption silmilar to or smaller than the '89/'90 eruption, occurring within days to weeks.

If an eruption is expected within hours, the color code will go from orange to red.

They have 4 possible scenarios:

Interpretation and Hazards

Based on our current understanding of Redoubt's past eruptions, both historical and from the geologic record, and our analysis of the current episode of unrest, AVO considers the following future scenarios as possible:

1) Failed Eruption: No eruption occurs because magma does not reach the surface. Earthquake activity, gas output, and steaming slowly decrease over several weeks or months. Continued heat flux may cause continued, modest melting of snow and ice on the edifice and subsequent increased, but not hazardous outflow into the Drift River.

2) Eruption similar to or smaller than 1989-90: Unrest continues to escalate culminating in an eruption that is similar to or smaller than the one that occurred in 1989-90. An eruption such as this would likely spread volcanic ash throughout Cook Inlet and other parts of south-central Alaska depending upon the prevailing winds. Communities around the volcano, especially to the east, northeast, and southeast, would likely experience trace to several millimeters (less than 0.4 inches) of ash fall as a result of discrete explosive events. Such events could also generate pyroclastic flows that swiftly melt snow and ice to form mudflows, or lahars, that would likely travel east down Drift River, possibly reaching and flowing into Cook Inlet. If summit lava domes form, as they did in 1989-90, they may repeatedly collapse and generate pyroclastic flows that would likely travel north from the summit crater and form lahars. Smaller lahars could also form in other drainages if hot debris accumulated on other flanks of the volcano. An eruption consisting of multiple explosive events, episodic lava-dome growth and collapse, and lahars may last weeks to months

3) Larger Explosive Eruption: A significantly larger eruption could occur, perhaps similar to eruptions that are thought to have taken place prehistorically. Such an eruption might involve the production of larger ash clouds, pyroclastic flows on several flanks of the volcano, and larger lahars more frequently reaching Cook Inlet down Drift River and affecting other drainages around the volcano as well.

4) Flank Collapse: The intruding magma or other processes could destabilize a portion of the Redoubt edifice that could result in a large volcanic landslide. At least twice in the last 10,000 years, debris flows generated by such landslides have reached Cook Inlet. It is also likely that a landslide of this type would be accompanied by an eruption. Because of the scarcity of these events in the geologic record, a flank collapse and eruption is considered very unlikely. A flank collapse may be accompanied by visible deformation of the edifice and AVO will be looking for such signs.

Based on all available monitoring data and AVOs knowledge of the volcano, scenario number two, an eruption similar to or smaller than that of 1989-90, appears to be the most probable outcome at this time. We consider one and three to be somewhat less likely, and scenario four to be much less likely.

Comparing the time frame of pre-eruptive activity in 1989-90 (the only other eruption for which seismic data were available) with the current unrest, we would expect such an eruption to begin within the next few days or weeks. It is likely that the onset of an explosive eruption would be preceded by a further increase in seismicity. An explosive eruption would be accompanied by a sharp increase in seismicity. Should earthquake activity or other monitoring data suggest that an eruption is expected within hours, or is underway, AVO would move Redoubt from its current Aviation Color Code ORANGE to RED, and Alert Level WATCH to WARNING.
.

Full statement

Latest official volcano observation:

2009-01-29 08:01:58
Seismicity remains above background levels and appears to have increased slightly over the last few hours.

AVO is currently staffed 24 hours per day to monitor Redoubt Volcano. The Aviation Color Code remains at ORANGE and the Volcano Alert Level remains at WATCH.

Source: Alaska Volcano Observatory

reply to post by welivefortheson

HAARP Again? Seriously?

Some of you people really need to get a life. HARRP is no more a threat to you or the planet than Algore is.

As to burying Anchorage on Ash....sheesh get a grip. Redoubt is 100 miles SW of here. Worst case would be an inch or two max. Even Kenai which is 38 miles from the volcano only got a couple of inches in 89.

If you want to worry about something worry what could happen to the oil platforms in Cook Inlet should a explosive event occur on the East side of Redoubt. A large enough pyroclastic flow could generate a Tsunami to the East, impacting any of the oil platforms in the area as well as the towns of Kenai and Nikitski which are directly across the Inlet from the volcano.

Worry about something that is real for a change.

I had a dream last night of a volcano, my dreams usually portend events 2 days ahead. We will see.

Hello from Volcano Central

I'm sitting in my office in Anchorage. Nothing yet. I let my Wife know to pick up some dust masks. We always have a few weeks food and plently of supplies so I'm good to go.

One of my employees was here for the 89-90 eruption and he said they got about an inch of ash and it interfered with things for a couple of days. We are actually a ways away and Homer is probably the town that needs to worry.

My Driver was also here for the big earthquake and tells me that it was so bad the trees were slapping the ground. I'm glad I did not live here then.

Anyway, I'll make sure you guys get a blow by blow when it happens. I just hope it holds off until after I get my crew paid and get home tonight. You can't drive or it ruins your car. I was in Portland, Oregon right after St. Helens and helped clean up ash. I was also there when it went the second time but the ash went the other way.

Originally posted by Anonymous ATS
I hope it blows. we could use some excitment around here.

Not this kind. Every day I have to close my office costs me about $4,000. Even one day is too much for this Kids wallet.

Originally posted by antar
I had a dream last night of a volcano, my dreams usually portend events 2 days ahead. We will see.

Now THAT's how you put a prediction out there. Not how most whackos around here do it.
Here's to hoping that occasionally someone does actually have glimpses of the future. Reality all the time with no bits of magic is boring.

Originally posted by Bigfoot209th

Originally posted by antar
I had a dream last night of a volcano, my dreams usually portend events 2 days ahead. We will see.

Now THAT's how you put a prediction out there. Not how most whackos around here do it.
Here's to hoping that occasionally someone does actually have glimpses of the future. Reality all the time with no bits of magic is boring.

Well, with all due respect antar, after there are seismos showing harmonic tremors and beading, with the AVO issuing code orange, it's just a wee bit late to start up with predictions based on dreams, don't ya think?

Seismicity seems to be picking up:

www.avo.alaska.edu...

The AVO mentions this in their last update:

Seismicity at Redoubt remains above background levels, and has increased slightly over the past hour.

www.avo.alaska.edu...

Is it too late to tell you about my dream? (jk)

If anyone is interested in following this closely you can get twitter updates on Redoubt from alaska_avo. Here is the link for it ...Redoubt Twitter

Is it only wind/weather or is seismic activity starting from 06:15 UTC getting worser?
Link to Redoubt RSO webicorder


[edit on 2009/1/30 by Shirakawa]

reply to post by Shirakawa


That clearly is a sustained harmonic tremor. One of several that have happened so far, and a big reason no doubt for the code orange. And note that they are issuing this despite inconclusive evidence of increased gas emissions. And that right there should be a lesson to us all that prior to eruption, increased emissions may not necessarily be evident. Something to keep in mind at YS, for sure.

Wow, there's several ATS'ers from Alaska, and Anchorage region even. It's nice to see that I'm not the only crazy Alaskan on the boards...

We've been bagging our computers at work in the evenings, in the event that Redoubt goes kerblooey. Most electronics, actually. Putting Visquine (SP?) on the copiers and large standing printers.