Shipping rates hit zero - meaning? Go get shopping now for goods needed

If this doesn't make you go out and buy what you need NOW - then nothing will.

Industry sources said they have never seen rates fall so low. "This is a whole new ball game," said one trader.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which measures freight rates for bulk commodities such as iron ore and grains crashed several months ago, falling 96pc. The BDI – though a useful early-warning index – is highly volatile and exaggerates apparent ups and downs in trade. However, the latest phase of the shipping crisis is different. It has spread to core trade of finished industrial goods, the lifeblood of the world economy.

Trade data from Asia's export tigers has been disastrous over recent weeks, reflecting the collapse in US, UK and European markets.

There have been discussions about the BDI before on threads, which is the bulk commodities shipping. But now it has gone to the finished goods shipping.

Grains etc. had been piling up everywhere and not getting shipped to be made into food.

Now the finished product shipping has gone down to nothing.

For those who have not believe and have not listened in the last few months, about needing food for months to survive, you need to listen now.

The grocery store shelves will now actually start being depleted - without being restocked.

A report by ING yesterday said shipping activity at US ports has suddenly dived. Outbound traffic from Long Beach and Los Angeles, America's two top ports, has fallen by 18pc year-on-year, a far more serious decline than anything seen in recent recessions.

"This is no regular cycle slowdown, but a complete collapse in foreign demand," said Lindsay Coburn, ING's trade consultant.

Idle ships are now stretched in rows outside Singapore's harbour, creating an eerie silhouette like a vast naval fleet at anchor. Shipping experts note the number of vessels moving around seem unusually high in the water, indicating low cargoes.

It became difficult for the shippers to obtain routine letters of credit at the height of financial crisis over the autumn, causing goods to pile up at ports even though there was a willing buyer at the other end. Analysts say this problem has been resolved, but the shipping industry has since been swamped by the global trade contraction.

This is serious, think about all the foods you buy that are not made here.

"They have already hit zero," said Charles de Trenck, a broker at Transport Trackers in Hong Kong. "We have seen trade activity fall off a cliff. Asia-Europe is an unmit­igated disaster."

Shipping journal Lloyd's List said brokers in Singapore are now waiving fees for containers travelling from South China, charging only for the minimal "bunker" costs. Container fees from North Asia have dropped $200, taking them below operating cost.

Link to source:
www.telegraph.co.uk...







[edit on 14-1-2009 by questioningall]

Once again star and flag
My buddy has been telling me that there is stuff in the docks that are not going anywhere.
I will keep an eye on this one for sure.
I am fine as we have 2 yrs of food stored.

This literally pops up every 3 months, and literally someone tells us its time run to to the grocery store and panic buy because the shelves will be empty. Never happens.

The OP's last attempt to scare everyone about the shelves being empty also didn't occur:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Other threads that were also wrong:
www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...

And this list goes on, and on, and on.

Shipping rates won't hit zero. At a certain point shippers will simply not go below X price, and people who want to make money (which is..all businesses) will pay it just as they did when shipping rates were sky high.

I do love the ATS mentality though. If shipping rates are high, that means a food shortage is coming. If they are low, that also means a food shortage is coming.

[edit on 14-1-2009 by LowLevelMason]

reply to post by LowLevelMason

I think its better to have a smoke detector then not have one and go to bed after taking 3 valiums.


[edit on 14-1-2009 by DrumsRfun]

Originally posted by DrumsRfun
reply to post by LowLevelMason

 

I think its better to have a smoke detector then not have one and go to bed after taking 3 valiums.

Invalid metaphor - a house fire is actually a probable event. Not likely, but still probable. Preparing for food shortages in 2009, the apocalypse, or any other event means you are preparing for things that are not likely at all to happen.

You prepare for things that are possibilities for wherever your live. On the west coast of the US that would be something like earth quakes, on the east coast hurricanes. You don't go out and buy a radiation hazmat suit because someone predicts a nuke is going to hit the country.

reply to post by LowLevelMason


You have your opinions and I have mine...fair enough.
2 lines

reply to post by LowLevelMason



That thread you provided is correct and it was based on the Baltic Dry Index, and there were many links to provide that information and confirm it. That index is provided on raw materials, now the information in this thread is provided on the finished goods.

Hey - it is up to everyone individually to read what they will and come to their own conclusions.

I find it amazing that you are doubting the info. - it has not come from me, but from valid and real sources.

So - don't go out and stock up - that is your decision, but I think others will find the thread informative that finished goods shipments have now gone over the cliff.

I was around galveston harbour the other day. I was offshore and I counted over 30 tankers just anchored up offshore doing nothing. I have never seen so many tankers sitting offshore in my life. Something is up and the people that don't prepare are foolish to say the least. Oh when I counted the tankers in the anchorage it was only as far as I can see which means if there was more parked out of my sight then those were not counted.

reply to post by questioningall


Nothing has "gone over the cliff" and just like your last thread, this won't result in empty shelves. I am not disputing the data, I am disputing your conclusion that the data must mean chaos is coming. The data is clear: shipping is cheap. And that is great news.

There's nothing at all wrong with being prepared and having a well stocked storage of supplies. At the same time, it's prudent to stock things you'll actually use during "normal" times rather than having a huge storage of MREs or dehydrated chicken livers purchased purely because you sense a coming apocalypse and they store well. I have a pretty decent stockpile, but it's entirely composed of things my wife uses on a fairly regular basis anyway. Yes, I have some stuff like palets of canned milk and dry beans that we don't use very often, but 90% of the goods are used often enough that we have a steady rotation of food items from the store to the storeroom then to the kitchen, wash, rinse, repeat and nothing gets wasted.

That used to be called being prudent and prepared. Now it seems like the concept has been hijacked by doomsday prophets and people actually look at you funny when you walk out of Costco with several cases of canned green beans.

At the same time, I really do think that there's just a little too much hyperbole and fearmongering going on about the pending doom & imminent empty store shelves. Having actually seen empty store shelves before, following a natural disaster which snared stores' abillities to get supplies (2006 massive wind storm in the Puget Sound, complete with week long widespread power outages, feul shortages, and freezing temps) I can tell you that it's a whole lot more than just "a few items here and there which are sold out" even at the beginning of a real shortage you're looking at whole aisles which are empty, not just a shelf here and there.

Originally posted by LowLevelMason
reply to post by questioningall

 

Nothing has "gone over the cliff" and just like your last thread, this won't result in empty shelves. I am not disputing the data, I am disputing your conclusion that the data must mean chaos is coming. The data is clear: shipping is cheap. And that is great news.

Not my words of "over the cliff"

They have already hit zero," said Charles de Trenck, a broker at Transport Trackers in Hong Kong. "We have seen trade activity fall off a cliff. Asia-Europe is an unmit­igated disaster."

Oh, sorry, he said "off a cliff" - I used "over a cliff" - my bad.

So I will now say as in the article "shipping has gone off a cliff".

reply to post by jkm1864


Where I live in the UK it is the same.
Along the bristol channel there are tankers just anchored up.Some since just before christmas still there and some more just arrived.

Maybe there is something in what the OP has said.Or as I have been thinking,it could be something to do with the somali pirates situation.

I would just like to add that the US is one of the world's major food suppliers; we have a very large agriculture industry. If anyone should be worried about this particular news it would be those people in foreign nations that are dependent on importing food, not people in the US.

reply to post by Anonymous ATS


But you miss the part of us shipping our grains and raw foods to China to be made into finished boxed products. Look at the baby formulas etc.

I would have thought we would not have to worry either, but since the wonderful tax breaks Bush put in place and loop holes, it has been more beneficial for big companies to have the food products produced elsewhere. You may be surprised at how much food we get from China.

I know I need to go out and buy a tiller for gardening. I bought seeds, but am wondering if seeds you buy from the store now are GM seeds.
Anyone know that answer?

I read a thread a while back about how we would start noticing shelves not being stocked....well, I'm noticing. . For the past few weeks every time I have gone to Walmart the shelves are really sparse. Things that are always in stock...gone or only a few. And it is a variety of things...not things that one would think would be low because of holidays. One of the associates said she had never seen anything like it before and she didn't understand why they were out of so much. So...no fearmongering here...just my observation.

And for those saying don't worry about it....you don't prepare just for some doomsday scenario you do it for life situations. I try to buy extra as often as possible because anything could happen. My friend was just one of many that got layed off and didn't see it coming and they have 5 kids. Can't find a job because everyone is either laying off or on a freeze. She had been there a while too....a lot of them had. People are loosing their jobs left and right around here and most are already barely getting by. So if, God forbid it happens to one of us...atleast I know i have extra put aside so i don't have to worry about my kids meals.

reply to post by LowLevelMason


I think you mean that a house fire is Possible but not Probable as possible simply alludes to the fact that it's not impossible for your house to burn down, it's simply not likely to happen, or Improbable.

Exchange "House" for "World economy" and it still applies.

It is possible.

Perhaps not Probable.

Then again, these are dark times and uncharted, and very well could be Probable, but no one can be so sure.

If you could explain why that means there will be no food, I'd appreciate it.

Two lines.

Originally posted by questioningall
This is serious, think about all the foods you buy that are not made here.

Foods like what? Ramen Noodle? Processed garbage? Tainted baby formula?

All the delicious, nutritious food we need is grown and raised right here in the USA.

This could be a great thing for this country... we buy American, support our country's economy, and eat healthy.

[edit on 15-1-2009 by craig732]

[edit on 15-1-2009 by craig732]

Originally posted by questioningall
reply to post by LowLevelMason

 

...Hey - it is up to everyone individually to read what they will and come to their own conclusions.
I find it amazing that you are doubting the info. - it has not come from me, but from valid and real sources.
So - don't go out and stock up - that is your decision, but I think others will find the thread informative that finished goods shipments have now gone over the cliff.

Very well said. To add...what downside is there to having a stock of food on hand? If nothing transpires that causes disaster, you just eat the food. No loss. Being prepared is a personal choice for sure. Just understand that as with Katrina, don't expect the good 'ol goverment to come to your aid.

My suggestion is to buy freeze-dried and dehydrated foods in sealed oxygen free #10 cans which have a shelf life of 10-20 years. Over the last year I bought a months supply of this type food every month to acheive a years supply in storage. Two great companies to deal with are:
store.honeyvillegrain.com...
beprepared.com...
Don't forget water in your preparedness plan. One can live several weeks without food but you'll die in 4 days without water. Water storage info is covered in the following article:
beprepared.com...
ATS members need to consider the future right now...Good luck!


[edit on 15-1-2009 by romanmel]

[edit on 15-1-2009 by romanmel]

Originally posted by craig732
All the delicious, nutritious food we need is grown and raised right here in the USA.

This could be a great thing for this country... we buy American, support our country's economy, and eat healthy.

Not to mention the fact that whenever there is an opportunity to be had in this country, entrepreneurs come out of the woodwork. If there were a shortage of food, people would suddenly be mass-producing food and you'd find it on Craigslist and eBay.