Peter Schiff Predicts Imminent Doom

reply to post by Power_Semi


Yeah i dont disagree with what you are saying, particularly asset prices will fall as part of the correction and as bankruptcies occur there will be fire sales and the like. Thats part of what must happen for a correction to take place. I dont think you will see massive corrections across a wide range of sectors, its playing out almost like dominos falling rather than everything falling at once and so that has left us with a small amount of inflation in prices overall. I'd say that will continue, i wouldnt expect to see negative inflation rates.

My concern is that this will contribute to the hysterics over deflation within central banks and governments, leading to increased stimulus packages and further loosening of monetary policy. You can see it in the writings of guys like Krugman, they believe that price deflation must be avoided at all costs. Problem is that the only way you can correct prices that have been inflated within a bubble is to let them fall; these guys dont seem to get that message.

So I dont see it as being a prolonged period of price deflation across all sectors of the economy, simply because these guys will almost certainly overreact and send us quickly into the next inflationary period with even worse consequences than the current problems. They are doing everything posisble to try and prop up asset prices using the same tools that got us into this mess to begin with. Almost seems like an institutionalised insanity has taken hold.

Originally posted by huckfinn


How can governments or central banks stop it from happening? Are they in the business of making specific dreams come true?

I think you are being too simplistic here. Firstly, govts can and do influence the flow of funds into particular assets classes through legislation and regulatory requirements. This has the effect of inflating certain classes to the detriment of others and hence creating bubbles that will correct in the future as investors realise that the prices arent being dirven by fundamentals.

Additionally fiscal and monetary policy also directly affects the underlying businesses and economies that those businesses are trading in. If a central bank is cutting its interest rates to stimulate economic growth and spending it directly affects the underlying businesses within the economy. It also has the effect of bringing forward earnings/spending that may have resulted in the future to a current period. That changes the investor's view of what the future is likely to provide (ie raises earnings expectations into the future, as recent data is always used as a guide and they dont relaise that the accelerated growth is almost always bringing forward furture income, and so reducing the income to come as the cycle busts).

I think thats enough of a demonstration of the ffects that can happen.

When this guy Schiff speaks he does so based on his vision of what the future looks like. His future involves a desolate US economy for some reason and he wants whoever hears his voice to position themselves to take advantage of his vision.

I agree with you here, this is Schiff's vision of the future. Unfortunately none of us can predict what will happen and so its just one possibility. Also, just because he was right about what is happening now doesnt mean he is right about what will happen tomorrow. Too much skill is attributed to those who get it right once when most others are wrong, while forgetting that they were wrong while others were correct. Far more randomness than is given credit for (and the views i put forward about the future are subject to the same thing; i only say what i think and could easily be very wrong. In fact i am almost certain to be wrong about a lot of things).

I am not buying gold at $850/ounce.

Neither am i, smells like another bubble brewing to me. Similar to oil a year ago. An old saying goes "when you see the stupid money coming in, get out".

A former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member (now Professor at the London School of Economics) advises Americans to prepare for a massive collapse in the dollar within two to five years as investors around the world dump their US assets.

"The past eight years of imperial overstretch, hubris and domestic and international abuse of power on the part of the Bush administration has left the US materially weakened financially, economically, politically and morally," he said. "Even the most hard-nosed, Guantanamo Bay-indifferent potential foreign investor in the US must recognise that its financial system has collapsed."

Willem Buiter warns of massive dollar collapse The Telegraph, 06 Jan 2009

Former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Dr. Paul Craig Roberts discussing demolition of the dollar last March:

Google Video Link

[edit on 9-1-2009 by EvilAxis]

reply to post by Jim Scott


OMG you are a genius you solved the whole problem all by your own self! You are completely right - Print more money from thin air to stabilise the economy. Nice waste of the ald brains cells there. Any more wisdom you would like to add? Maybe this time try thinking with your brain not with your A$$!

reply to post by kcfusion


Wow, what a nice way to disagree with someone. You're parents must be very proud.

Gold showing the characteristics of a Bubble

A speculative mania?

Really?

The past 2wks has been a Battle-Royal @ $880 key resistance...with Gold unable to hold a break. Eventually, the bulls will win this one, but first, spec longs will have to summon enough confidence to return to the market in earnest. Another reference might be the XAU/HUI indices. Please, take a peek at a 1yr, then come back and report that Gold is in bubble-mode.

I would encourage everyone reading this thread to poll their friends, relatives, neighbors. Ask if they own physical Gold...or...ask if they have even minimal exposure to any form of Gold in their portfolios...let alone substantial exposure.

You may be surprised.

Edit add: Father, Irwin Schiff, is serving a 13 year sentence for tax crimes at the Federal Correction Institution at Terre Haute, Indiana. Release date: October 7th, 2016.

Brother Andrew, runs a pr agency...handles media relations for P. Schiff.

FWIW

[edit on 10-1-2009 by OBE1]

reply to post by questioningall


What he says is true yes... but... if everybody stops using american currency and starts getting rid of it the economy will certainly collapse without a faint of a doubt

I see this morning that www.paynoincometax.com... has been suspended.

When I posted that url last night, the web page was active. Featured was a letter from Irwin Schiff dated 2008 discussing his recent transfer to the Federal penitentiary in Terre Haute, Indiana, along with some commentary on the US income tax code.

Spooks never sleep?

I'm no expert, but it seems to me with the writing on the wall - the only wise thing to do is put your money into survival supplies, and gold/silver!

What good will your fortune be when it tanks and you didn't use it to buy necessities?

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
As things go on and on and Peter Schiff explains his positions more and more and I think his position is a fallacy somewhat. We will be getting massive inflation and the economy will continue to get worse but it will not be armageddon. The rest of the world is doing the SAME exact things. My economics teacher once was talking about treasuries and she said that they are safe as long as the U.S. government and economy is safe, if it isn;t, well, we are all screwed wherever you are anyway.

Honestly, how can he think foreign stocks of all things would be safe if the U.S. collapsed. It is crazy.

The hardest thing for Americans to realise is that they are not the end all and be all of the planet - you have only been a super power for 30 years, you ascended to this position as a result of taking advantage financially from the second world war by assisting europe militarily and financially through loans on very unfavourable terms.

beyond that you have spent the vast majority of your history being everyone biatch - seriously - nothing much. Since the collapse of the soviet union in has taken little more than ten years for America to fall into ruin and you will return to your STANDARD global position - right now your country is less than the EU, it is significantly less than the any asian union with your GDP not being much more than that of Japan.

Your overstimation of your ownself worth is a very typical american trait, one that has been deserved for an exceptionally dhort period of time and has already finished, amserica is perhaps the shortest living world power EVER.

The world will not collapse without america, all considered and respected thinkers on the issue would see it as a period of great flourishing of the planet since your success has implicitly relied on the subordination and oppression of all others, your initital success comes directly from the misry of others - so trust me when I say to you it would be the best thing that could happen to the world if america went balls up - not just logically and empricially but emotionaly - yes we ALL want you gone, from australia, europe, asia, africa and especially south america.

You are unaware of this as you are blinded by your ignorance, arrogance and overestimation of your own self worth.

Originally posted by TheAgentNineteen

Originally posted by questioningall


I sure hope people have listened to him and have been getting out of the U.S. dollar.

I hate to break it to you, but this has to be the most ironic "advice" ever. You state that this gentleman predicts a future American Crisis, yet, at the same time he advises everyone to pull out of the United States Dollar based Currency. Do you not realize that by pulling out of the United States Dollar, you are in fact bringing about the very "crisis" of which he speaks?

The small amount of money everyone in the U.S. has would not affect the dollar by all of us getting out of it. If we got into metals - the dollar strength would not be affected.

BUT - when other countries that have trillions tied up in loans with us....if they stopped buying our debt via T-bills - then that would be what would cause our fall.

So, lets look at what is going on..... China and other countries who have financed us, are now pulling back, as they have their own economies to worry about and pouring money down a black hole - doesn't do them any good.

So, now that we know it is other countries that will affect the value of the dollar and not the small amount us individuals have - and the fact those countries are going to worry about their own countries within the next few months - that is what will cause the dollar death.

So....will you be protected when that happens? Will you have something from what the value of the dollar is right now? Will you be able to still get by with your dollar value being 10% of what it is right now?

Thus, protect yourself with your value of the dollar right now, with about the only thing out there of investment value in todays market.....
precious metals!

Take the advise of economist or leave it, but after the SHTF don't complain - as you have been forewarned.

www.safehaven.com... all kinds of info on metals

I'd like to point out something about America, we have been the wealthiest nation on Earth for over 700 years. Before this was the United States, and before the 7 years war, this was France and Portugal. Louis, the King of the West was and is the richest man in the world, owning and controlling most of the Western Hemisphere of this planet. For most of the 700 years with the exception of far eastern Asia, the world knew nothing of this place. Because you weren't allowed to know, fool.

The past seven years and the current state of things was nothing more than an attempted robbery and attempted murder that went bad. And those poor saps that invested everything into that adventure and lost are having a difficult time coming to terms with the new reality.


Huckleberry Finn took all their money and left them with nothing.

Most people and I think Peter Schiff included, don't understand what is happening.

This is not something that is just a consequence of over-borrowing and spending, yes that is what has caused this current downturn, but this is an engineered plan, within an engineered plan...for the one world government to take control over the affairs of the world.

In other words, if they have control of critical infrastructure (banks,insurance,transportation, etc) through partial or full ownership through all the buyouts-bailouts, they can pretty much get you to jump through a hoop, or jump off a cliff if they so choose. Join the one world government or else!

That is the plan, it is happening now, and yes many do know about it. But you wont find the real "enlightened ones" standing on a soap box yelling all this conspiracy stuff through a megaphone.

We will discuss it here on ATS for sure, but many wont be demonstrating against it, as we were fore-warned, and it was inevitable.

We knew it was coming... it has been planned for thousands of years, we are fine with the outcome however painful it may be.

reply to post by audas


You need to work on your facts. The US GDP is about 13.8 trillion, Japan is 4.3; ours is more than 3 times as much. The European Union is about 16.9 trillion, and that is comprised of 27 countries that only manage to beat the US's by 3 trillion.

Now, I don't think anyone is claiming that the entire world will fall into ruin if the United State's economy collapses, but most of the world's financial markets will. Look at what has been happening over the past several months; some countries stock indexes have fallen over 50% due to this US centric crisis. How do you think most first world nation's citizens will react if all their savings disappear? Social chaos would be very possible.

Originally posted by audas

The world will not collapse without america, all considered and respected thinkers on the issue would see it as a period of great flourishing of the planet since your success has implicitly relied on the subordination and oppression of all others, your initital success comes directly from the misry of others - so trust me when I say to you it would be the best thing that could happen to the world if america went balls up - not just logically and empricially but emotionaly - yes we ALL want you gone, from australia, europe, asia, africa and especially south america.

I am curious, since you seem to have such a handle on history, could you name me a European nation, (or any nation) that has had success that was not based on the subordination and oppression of others?

Originally posted by audas
You are unaware of this as you are blinded by your ignorance, arrogance and overestimation of your own self worth.

That is partially correct. You are right that there are Americans who are unaware of how our nation rose to a position (no matter how short lived) of power. However, your implication that America is somehow different in this is nothing short of hypocrisy.

I would lay out the facts for you, but my experience has told me that I only waste my own time doing so. If you want to believe the utter crap you are told by your media about your own nobility, then you will. I just find it rather "ignorant, arrogant and an overestimation of your own self worth" to sit in the holier than thou seat when all we are doing is the same thing every nations leaders everywhere have done when presented the opportunity. Especially as your use of language indicates some connection to Britain, and they are the last people on the planet that have any right at all to talk about building on oppression and misery as if they were exempt.

Do I personally think it is right? No, I dont, I think we should figure out a way to live, (all of us) that is NOT based on the benefiting from the misery of others. But dont act as though your nation is any different. All Americans arent stupid enough to take you at your word, some of us actually know some historical facts about other countries.



[edit on 10-1-2009 by Illusionsaregrander]

Originally posted by mecheng
reply to post by Realtruth

 

Here's the kicker... Many of us have been told over and over that social security will be gone by the time we retire, and therefore we need to put 15% of our income into 401k or we won't be able to retire.

Smart or not, the overwhelming majority of my savings is in my 401k. Consequently I only have a few limited choices of where to put it - invest in different mutual funds or move it into more conservative government bonds.

So it's not exactly as easy for most, if they are like me, to simply 'get out of the dollar'.

If you want to save, use a savings account. If you want to gamble buy stocks/401k. You would think this is easy but it is not. People think they can "save" and make a # load of money out of that savings at the same time. God humans are dumb.