Peter Schiff Predicts Imminent Doom

I like this guy.

Mostly because we share the same view of the problem.

I just posted on this the other day on another thread;

www.abovetopsecret.com...

If anything, the media should be more clear about the fact that we cannot simply "consume" our way out of this crisis. Clearly, people are somehow deriving the idea that if only people would go to the mall and buy stuff, everything would be okay. This is not the case. We are not in this mess because people were failing to consume. We are in this mess because for the last couple decades we have been undermining the American worker by sending jobs overseas, and allowing corporations free reign to lend money to people at insane interest rates without checking to see if these people can in fact afford to pay it back. We have been undermining the basis of our economy, the American taxpayer and consumer by cutting their throat, (making it harder for them to find jobs that pay enough to support our consumerist lifestyle) and then bleeding them from every possible angle with insane credit policies. And our "cure" for this bloodletting is bleeding them further by having tax dollars bail out the vampires that have bled them too greedily in the first place, and then further cutting jobs.

You dont need to be a genius to figure this out, but you do need common sense. Something that our leaders, political or corporate, seem in very short supply of.

Originally posted by MystikMushroom
All I can say is buying actual "GOLD" or "SILVER" is a BAD IDEA. The USA in the past has made it illegal to own such precious metals, and the sale/trade of them as well.

Foreign currency seems the best bet...but which currency?

Myth: Americans are as dumb as they vote. Only 21.9% of the gold coin then in circulation was surrendered. Black-market trade already exists. An abundance of Gold & Silver moves quietly between private hands.

It's a race to the [currency] bottom MM...but maybe you can get hold of a Merrill client list and spread the word before it's too late!

****

Right on Gold

Wrong on Bonds

Merrill Lynch says rich turning to gold bars for safety

reply to post by Jim Scott

America does not have a problem. It has a solution for the world that will stabilize all. Print money now.

Well, could I have a couple of billions of that?

You know I've been short of $$$ for my Monopoly game...

Originally posted by questioningall


I sure hope people have listened to him and have been getting out of the U.S. dollar.

I hate to break it to you, but this has to be the most ironic "advice" ever. You state that this gentleman predicts a future American Crisis, yet, at the same time he advises everyone to pull out of the United States Dollar based Currency. Do you not realize that by pulling out of the United States Dollar, you are in fact bringing about the very "crisis" of which he speaks?

Such simplistic views about the global economy as I see expressed here makes me realize that the average person does not understand global economics or politics. There is no such thing as the U S economy; we are part of the global economy and our currency has been the backbone of it. When the US dollar collapses (as it appears to be doing as I write this), the entire world economy will collapse (as it is doing). There will be no "safe" currencies.

How does one prepare for this worldwide economic disaster? First, figure out how to live in a world where money is worthless. Second, forget about the government coming to the rescue with a plan that puts everything back to the way it used to be. Third, (and perhaps this should be first) make yourself right with God for death may be the only way out for millions, maybe billions, of people. I am not suggesting mass suicides here - what I am saying is that most of us will not be able to survive the results of the current trends. We are too dependent on money and the things it buys.

However; if you are able to expand your awareness of the ultimate creative consciousness, you will accept that death is not an end, it is merely a transition to another phase of "being". The fear of leaving this materialistic world where money is everything will be gone and you might be able to live your final days in peace. Once you understand that the creative force of "God" is in you, you will be able to lose everything you own and still have all that you will ever need to go on to the next phase.

reply to post by TheAgentNineteen


Not exactly true. It may happen whether or not the average American pulls out of the dollar, if all the big guys see it coming and pull out first it wont matter what the average guy does or doesnt do. And the big guys should see it coming. It was my first thought when they brought up the bailout. Any one with any understanding of economics should have seen the looming possibility of a collapse of the dollar when they started pumping money into the system. I actually initially suspected they were destroying the currency on purpose to usher in a Amero or some such. (Which they may be, but I now suspect this is incompetence at its worst, not evil genius at its best.)

The problem is, for the average American, you most likely will not be able to get out. It is not easy to buy large amounts of foreign currencies outright, (countries dont WANT their people dumping their home currency) and if you buy gold it isnt always easy to get actual gold. (Hence the article on the novelty of the rich insisting on physical possession. ) And, if you do buy foreign currency how will you know which currency to buy? Who is really safe right now?

One thing I disagree with Schiff about is how much easier this will be on other countries currencies and economies. America wasnt alone in its foolishness. And letting corporations run wild was not the answer then, nor is it now. The problem is in part that corporations have been influencing our government polices to too great a degree. It isnt that government has been meddling too much in corporate issues, but that corporations have been meddling to much in national issues. A lot of the "bigger government" is serving industry. And a lot of our military spending has been to protect economic interests for the big players in the money game.

And i seriously doubt that other countries will find that their situation is much better. For the same reason as I mentioned above. Corporate and business interests have been running their nations as well, and just as poorly as they have been here. We may have been the most excessive, and the most foolish in this regard, but we are hardly alone. Sure, Asia has been growing rapidly, but in large by sending us stuff to buy. I think they are in fact as he said the next big consumer market, but that wont happen overnight as their manufacturing jobs (due to lessened demand here and in Europe) are lost and their people cut back on spending as well in the next couple of years.

No one is getting out of this unscathed. The rich will do better of course than the poor overall, but that should surprise no one. We would have been much better off, in my opinion, to let the businesses collapse, have our depression, and rebuild. The collapse of the dollar worries me much, much more.

And, for those of you who think I am wrong. I HOPE I am wrong. I PRAY I am wrong. To any God who will listen. No one wants to be wrong more than I do. I do have a slight tendency to take a dimmer view of things, and I would love for something wonderful to happen.

[edit on 9-1-2009 by Illusionsaregrander]

Jim Scott, you suggest that the way out of the crisis is to print more money. This is exactly what not to do!

I am not sure if you are aware that the money supply has already been increased massively, with no impact on the economy, because of the Fed's operations. At the moment this sits as reserves on banking balance sheets, and has not flowed through to the real economy. This is why you dont see an inflation problem right now. Thanks to the wonders of fractional reserve banking, once these reserves being to be lent out by banks there will be a large increase in money and a large increase in inflation to match.

Printing more money will simply exacerbate the problem.

The ready supply of credit, effectively printing money, is one of the main factors that lead us to this point in the first place. The ready supply of credit fuels asset bubbles. A solution of printing more money will simply lead to inflation, more bubbles and an even worse problem down the road. Oh, and it will lead to further devaluation of the US dollar (which is the main topic of this thread).

Unfortunately, the Fed and English central bank are actually following your line of thinking and are preparing to further increase the money supply to "unfreeze credit markets". Seemingly without the foggiest idea of what that will lead to.

Those speaking of deflation, not sure what you are referring to. The Fed wont let the money supply contract so there wont be a deflation. The increase in money supply will lead to price inflation coupled with dollar devaluation (each dollar is worth less, and so you need more of them to buy goods). I'd worry more about rampant inflation of prices.

[edit on 9-1-2009 by zvezdar]

I don't know if I believe this guy or not, but it is plausible. I can easily see how such a scenario was created to introduce the Amero or possibly even a global currency, assuming the rest of the world tanked even worse. If everything did go south, China would be primed to stabilize quickest, considering they are a production based nation, large population, and communist government. If the US or other parts of the world could no longer export from China, they would retool and make things to sell internally or for mere survival.

I think if what he says is completely true, no matter where else you may invest or what other currency you may hold, if you are an American, you would likely be in a desperate position. While investing in some tangible gold and silver could be useful , I think it would be better for people to invest in the 'tools' necessary for getting through any such crash. Food stores or the means to grow/raise enough food to support yourself and family, security for your home and property, firearms and training in their use for both protection and hunting, common luxuries and other critical items for bartering (cigarettes, alcohol, seeds, medicines etc), and if possible a means to provide some limited power such as a small solar panel or wind system.

These investments are more likely to guarantee your survival through any economic crisis. Once the government and economy would stabilize, a currency or PM might have some value to people, but all the while, food, protection and small semblances of normalcy will always have value.

reply to post by zvezdar


I was one of those speaking of "deflation" improperly because I was thinking the decrease in value in the dollar, not economic deflation. I corrected it. Selecting the right word for the concept in my mind doesnt always work as well for me at this time of night.


Edit to add;
Oops did it again. Time for bed for sure.



[edit on 9-1-2009 by Illusionsaregrander]

Originally posted by zvezdar
Jim Scott, you suggest that the way out of the crisis is to print more money. This is exactly what not to do!

Those speaking of deflation, not sure what you are referring to. The Fed wont let the money supply contract so there wont be a deflation. The increase in money supply will lead to price inflation coupled with dollar devaluation (each dollar is worth less, and so you need more of them to buy goods). I'd worry more about rampant inflation of prices.

[edit on 9-1-2009 by zvezdar]

I agree with you on this (all of the post actually) & I fully expect to see inflation in the UK & US, but I think there will be a period of price deflation first, not caused by economic elements, but rather by companies selling off everything that they own just to try & raise cash to stop themselves from going under.

We've already seen this in the UK to a degree over Christmas, the time when most retailers make the bulk of their annual profits, with almost all of them having sales prior to Christmas & dropping prices by 50% (some were even doing 70% off). For general retailers on the highstreet this means that they were selling at cost, just churning the products around to get cash in & not actually making money to pay the bils in the coming weeks & months.

Since the first day back after Christmas we've had retailers going bust every day, some of them are national chains & established household names, & I suspect it will get very much worse.

reply to post by stone7959


After receiving my master's degree in financial markets and trading from IIT in 2000, I've considered myself to be somewhat of an expert regarding financial markets and trading. Sure, I only graduated with a "B" average, but I defend my grades based on the fact that I worked on the OTC derivatives desk, for Bank of America's, global corporate and investment banking. We sold SWAPs.

I learned during those days that the average investor will never receive information that they can expect to benefit from in the short term. There are too many people in the business who will act on inside information before any of you will get to.

That being said...the only person who can reasonably expect to see a benefit, if any, from Schiff's advice is Peter Schiff and whom ever he's working for. The rest of you will be left trying to pass on a losing position to the next guy; like he's trying to do to you now.

reply to post by questioningall


What I mean is this....I read somewhere (i can't find it now) that in exchange for developing oil fields in Saudi Arabia it was agreed that crude oil would always be priced in dollars.

the agreement may have been for 100 years or something, but I am sure that some type of agreement stating this exists, at least between the Saudi and the American.

That being said...if and when crude is not priced and traded in dollars it is not something that should reasonably be expected in the short term. A component of the high oil prices last year was directly linked to the weakness of the dollar. When the Global financial system crashed everyone moved to the dollar, strengthening it and applying downward pressure on crude prices, in addition to weak demand.

I suppose now that the global financial sector is reasonably stabilized its come time to put the dollar in play again. In November 2007 James Saft, of Reuters fame, issued a opinion piece calling for the dollar to be sold. The dollar was sold and Oil skyrocketed. Oil is to weak and oil exporters are hurting, it makes more sense to me that they've concocted a series of problems to bolster oil prices and shore up their state budgets.

I'd like to suggest that international fiscal and monetary policy have nothing at all to do with the current problems, but instead the global economic and financial system is under constant bombardment from enemy forces. Peter the schill is one of their key pieces.

I really enjoy reading the ATS site. But, it is a "conspiracy site" and the predictions of Peter Schiff are the fodder of such sites. I am sure he'll be correct on some of his points and wrong on others. As much as we'd like to believe we have dummies running the American economy - and we could do a much better job - l don't think so. We have tremendous changes going on in the world economy. Manufacturing on a large scale is not profitable in the US as it is in other parts of the world. Economics dictate things will flow to where they are most efficient. Individuals get hurt when changes of this magnitude happen. I don't think it's the end of the world, but it might be the end of the world our parents and grandparents knew. In times of great change, great opportunities arise. Keep your eyes open, shake off the gloom, and chill out.

He has been wrong on the demise of the dollar as a result of the crisis tho.
If we were playing Scrabble we could rearrange TARP to spell TRAP. A lot of people have gone into precious metals as a proxy for cash and are vulnerable to a deflationary trap that could result in selling out in the spring at lower lows or a big gut check if a) the stock market goes down w/o the fear caused by a sudden crash as b) the economy continues to decline and the $ pumped into the system (monetary aggregate) goes into a financial black hole due to a lack of velocity (bank, corporate and household hoarding of cash). After such a shakeout and before the potential inflationary implications of the failure of all fiat $ (not just the us dollar) will be the time to buy them. The shortage of cash metals suggests a stealth bubble top to me in an environment where hedge funds etc are dishoarding and deleveraging. Timing is everything. But Gold at 550-600 and Silver at 666-777.

Originally posted by Tippys Dad

Economics dictate things will flow to where they are most efficient.

Which economics are those that dictate that things will flow to where they are most efficient?

It sounds as if you are discussing capitalism, and the idea that the "invisible hand" will correct the markets and bring about efficiency, however, we do not practice capitalism.

We like the WORD capitalism in the west, it gives us a philosopher to draw upon to justify what we do, but in order for the invisible hand to do its work you need certain conditions to be met, perfect information, perfect competition, etc.

When you have government making policies that favor some competitors over others, and media influencing the information one receives, and large oligopolies you are not going to have efficiency in a market.



[edit on 9-1-2009 by Illusionsaregrander]

Originally posted by huckfinn

I'd like to suggest that international fiscal and monetary policy have nothing at all to do with the current problems, but instead the global economic and financial system is under constant bombardment from enemy forces. Peter the schill is one of their key pieces.

I am not arguing against you at this point, mostly because I do not yet see where you stand or how you came to that conclusion, but I do have a question.

How can you separate fiscal and monetary policy from global economics in a world where business interests have so much influence over governments both here in the US and abroad?

And, just curious, who in your opinion are the enemy forces? And, if they are unidentifiable, by name, in what sector do you see them operating?

[edit on 9-1-2009 by Illusionsaregrander]

Originally posted by Illusionsaregrander

Originally posted by huckfinn

I'd like to suggest that international fiscal and monetary policy have nothing at all to do with the current problems, but instead the global economic and financial system is under constant bombardment from enemy forces. Peter the schill is one of their key pieces.

I am not arguing against you at this point, mostly because I do not yet see where you stand or how you came to that conclusion, but I do have a question.

How can you separate fiscal and monetary policy from global economics in a world where business interests have so much influence over governments both here in the US and abroad?

And, just curious, who in your opinion are the enemy forces? And, if they are unidentifiable, by name, in what sector do you see them operating?

[edit on 9-1-2009 by Illusionsaregrander]

I'll try an provide answer as clear as possible...When a individual, company or state invests its resources, it is buying a Potential future. The stock indices and individual stocks, as a definition, are an estimation of the present value of that potential future. The central bank can modify rates which can increase or decrease the present value of the potential future. The government can boost spending or cut taxes and to encourage investment in a potential future. But the government and central banks cannot insure the existence of these potential futures. What happened last fall was the collapse of a Potential future, and a lot of individuals and companies had bought it. How can governments or central banks stop it from happening? Are they in the business of making specific dreams come true?

Mid September 2008, the probability that a certain future was possible reached zero. As far as anyone knew that potentiality was gone and there was nothing in site to replace it with. The wealth that had been invested in it, gone. Everyone fled with what they had left.

Not everyone however buys into the same potential future. Someones future was destroyed. Noone, not even the government, can step in a prop up a potential future because not everyone has the same vision of the future. Furthermore to that the Government's role is not creating a future for us, but to provide a framework of security so that we create futures for ourselves. Saying that governments and central banks should have been able to do something about what is going on is like saying the government should know what all of our visions look like. Even if they could do this someone will see what they are doing, realize there's a problem and flee. Causing a collapse anyway.

When this guy Schiff speaks he does so based on his vision of what the future looks like. His future involves a desolate US economy for some reason and he wants whoever hears his voice to position themselves to take advantage of his vision.

Schiff's vision is just more of the same. Same thing he's been pushing for most of his career. I am not buying it. I am not buying gold at $850/ounce. Mexico made a contract deal last year to buy oil at $120/barrell for 3 years. That alone probably triggered the violence going on down there.

Could it be possible that his future as a leading financial expert is dependant upon the complete collapse of the western system and a switch to the east for financial and economic leadership in the world? If you don't buy what he's talking about and instead buy what you're talking about, you'll be far better off.

Its obvious that companies and individuals were carrying financial nukes on their balance sheets. He's trying to sell more.

According to his own words...the guy is on a sinking ship with a life preserver. I am not.

THere's a simple way to look at this IMHO........

Who do you believe?

I belive the people who predicted the current crisis 2 yrs ago...Schiff, Celente, Walker, Beck ....etc

reply to post by SonicInfinity
Lighten up on the earthquakes. That window is still open. Besides this thread is about the economy, and ain't nobody said nothin 'bout no web bots! (Article my local paper today, reported by the AP, about increased earthquakes in yellowstone.

reply to post by questioningall

I'm going to have to disagree with you on this. Gold has never kept pace with inflation, when you average it out. My guru says "pay off your credit cards, get 3-6 months basic living expenses, and then start investing 15% of you monthly income into a retirement account.
Believe it or not, the economy, and the stock market will recover. We may have to kick some serious butt in Washington so they learn to live within their means the way the rest of us have to, but the economy will turn around. This is not the first recession, or depression, if that's what you choose to call it, that this country has had, and it won't be the last.
Some last longer than others.
I happen to think that the government throwing money at the problem is not the thing to do.
I have paid off my credit cards. I am not yet investing for retirement, because I just got my emergency fund where I want it. I am stockpiling food. Canned goods, frozen meats, boxed meals that can be fixed by boiling water over an open flame, in case of a power loss. (Remember, it's winter, and ice storms happen. My home is all electric, but I have a fireplace, and I have a really good bar-b-que grill and a stack of wood).
It's always a good idea to be prepared, but don't panic.
While I disagree with questioningall's reasoning, she is doing the right thing by being pro-active.
As should we all.