Imminent Yellowstone 'Supervolcano' Now 'Unlikely'

If Yellowstone blew its top a good amount in the region would be toast, the rest of the US down wind would have to deal with ash fall out (read..tiny shards of glass). The real trouble comes for the rest of the world when the temps drop, and we cant grow crops.

The dangers are real. Is it going to happen tomorrow, next month, 10 years from now? I don't know.

there are lots of folks waiting to acuse you of fear mongering, generally
speaking that is and it would seem that now might not be the time for
it to blow as in world wide catastrophic event..but who knows really and
if a forum saved a few who would otherwise hang around until the
last half hour then it would not be a waste..difficult thing, controlling
fear and it is often used as a tool most likely or controlling device
itself. even if it does scare me a little bit i want to read about it and
i'd rather have the info on hand than to have it banned outright.
i wonder how many out there who actually can prepare for whatever
won't. i cannot but would do so and even if it could not save me it
might save somebody else. many probably think it shows a lack of
faith to try to prepare for some unprovable future ..don't know but
the farmers had to prepare with winter storage. if our supply chain
suddenly broke etc..where would that leave us..empty handed? i
don't think one has to be cult minded to prepare with faith in mind
and the knowledge that it may not actually save them in the end.
njl

reply to post by antonia

.my uncle lived out near settle washington, some smaller city to the south... this was in like late 80's on a clear day, yuo can see Mt.st.helens from his backyard WAY off in the distance, on the horizon... H is moving bck to that area, from Portalnd Oregon, Works for a cement company. When i was yonger, like 1985, he was out thier, and bought me back a small jar of acualy mt.st. helens dust..still have it now, from watching history channel, didnt mt.st.helens get active, then quiet down, not a peep, and split seecondly, in 1980 the entire north side collpase,...without warning..it covered towns.. perhaps same thing could happen at yellowstone.... things nice n quiet...life is peachy then BANG!!! rudest awakening EVER...
never been thier, yellowstone but would love too...it is kinda idiotic though, when yuo think about it, millioons of people go thierr every year, and dont realize they are in fact, standing right ontop of a volcano!

reply to post by silo13


not to be off topic but there are NO buffalo in yellowstone- they are bison which are an entirely different species. back on topic i believe something is going onthere that could be bad or maybe just nothing- but something to definitely watch out for- too hard to predict nature- watch your local news weather- only job i know of where you can be wrong 99% of the time and still keep your job or just give vague predictions so you are covered either way

My first post here...

Nothin to see folks etc..

Im relieved.

Basicallly I thought it was an attempt to outdo my TU24 post.


Just kiddin folks... just kiddin

Mungo

Originally posted by _Phoenix_
I don't know much about this volcano, but your comment is not the first I've seen saying, "we all will die?"

Do you mean the entire world? I don't get it.

a large part of the center and nothern US is going to be toast within hours. air would be so dark with tiny particles you couldn't see and certainly not able to breath. first to go ppl with lung/heart issues, then the healthy adults. the rest of the world would be getting the consequences within days. in a month the entire planet would be cooler and a bit darker and then you get crop failures, species going extinct, etc. in less than a couple of years we'd have the collapse of the human civilization as the stored up food resources dry out.

obviously there would be survivors and eventually they will rebuild but i wonder how much will be left after a few decades or maybe a period as long as the dark ages of violence and all that great stuff.

that's why i'm saying no need to worry we wont know what hit us. and we cant do a thing to stop it. just like we wouldn't be able to stop an asteroid coming for earth. so nobody will ever officially tell you to evacuate in either case because it's pointless!

Originally posted by silo13
Imminent Yellowstone 'Supervolcano' Now 'Unlikely'

I hope they are right. Funny (or prophetic) I seem to remember that in the Yellowstone Eruption movie the people in charge said the exact same thing in order to keep people calm as certain death and destruction approached.

Firstly, the largest thread about this has not been "scaremongering", but I suppose most of you would know this if you were able to read more than ten pages before having a cerebral meltdown.

That thread scientifically discusses the events and probable outcomes, and the majority in the thread seemed to agree that an eruption of the caldera was not likely. What was likely is a hydrothermal explosion.

Yes there were a few momentary visitors to the thread prophesying the "end of days" BS we see all too often, but the vast majority never actually thought for any considerable time that an eruption of the caldera was imminent or likely.

As for YS itself, the entire quake swarm is still a mystery, so saying this is over is based on what exactly?
There was no (or very little) activity prior to it.

This could be the end of any activity we see in our lifetimes at YS, or it could be the creation of a Hydrothermal event. It could be the start of something more, or the end of something else.

One thing is for sure; for those of us interested in the Earth, this event is fascinating, and has taught us all a great deal about many aspects of geology.
For those who put the entire thing down to "scaremongering", or didn't actually bother to read much about it, good for you, you've not progressed a jot from a week ago!

reply to post by detachedindividual


Lol I actually followed the whole thread and I do find the subject interesting. I still stand by my opinion and I'm sorry if that offends you in some way.

Originally posted by ryox82
reply to post by detachedindividual

 

Lol I actually followed the whole thread and I do find the subject interesting. I still stand by my opinion and I'm sorry if that offends you in some way.

I am just a little miffed that people immediately assume scaremongering and deny all else.

I accept that most subjects here suffer a degree of sensationalizing, but the Yellowstone discussions didn't as far as I can see. The majority of it was well investigated and extremely detailed in scientific data. To suggest that it was somehow all "doom and gloom" BS as usual just shows that the thread and information wasn't actually followed.

reply to post by detachedindividual


I see where your frustration comes from. There was plenty of data being analyzed I agree with that much. There are just so many variables with Yellowstone. It is such a complex system. The other problem is the length of time between eruptions. Its not something that has been able to be measured accuratley. We have an approx. Date that says we are overdue and that's about it.

Was this recent spat of activity odd? Yes. Instead of it being an impending super eruption isn't it just as likely that it is rising magma and hot water? The magma wouldn't have to be rising all the way to the surface to affect water temps and pressure. I hear its pretty hot stuff!!

There are too many questions and not enough answers yet to be able to make that judgment and I feel we need more time to try and see a larger trend

reply to post by detachedindividual


Hey there! Got your u2u but unfortunately haven't posted enough to send one back. I do agree tho. I actually saw not too long ago that there was a big fuss about why the coordinates, when plugged into Google sky, pulled up stars with a blacked out section right at those coordinates. 2 more posts and I'll be u2u'ing you right back but didn't want you to think I was ignoring you.

reply to post by bigfoot1212

not to be off topic but there are NO buffalo in Yellowstone- they are bison which are an entirely different species

Silly Me! I always get confused which species died out the last time Yellowstone erupted!
(Couldn't resist)!

All kidding aside it's good information to know.
Ya never can tell when it will come in handy.

Ok so I'm still poking at you but it's all in fun.

I'm just so glad every-single-living-thing is still romping bucking squirming slithering and flitting all around Yellowstone it just puts me in a great mood! (And I'm glad all the animals are ok too!)!



Thanks for your post!

*P*E*A*C*E*

Originally posted by silo13
Imminent Yellowstone 'Supervolcano' Now 'Unlikely'

The recent "swarm" of small earthquake tremors happening in Yellowstone National Park are not likely to be a sign of a pending "supervolcano" eruption as some fear, according to a top scientist at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.

Dr. Jacob Lowenstern of the U.S. Geological Survey said Monday that the earthquake activity in Yellowstone most likely will continue for weeks, "and then will end without any other related activity."

I most surely hope these people are right!

You Hope?

This is not fact.. this is premonition. That scientist also relies on unlikely which is also not fact.

I'm confused why he's not stated what the swarms are from if they are monitoring it... why keep the "facts" hidden? So as not to allow us to use our own perception of what may be happening?

Scientists are only as useful until they are disproven.. keeping the "facts" hidden only allows speculation and control.

Due to lack of facts.. I'm keeping an eye on what's transpiring there regardless of what some "scientist" thinks I should believe.

It's not fear mongering.. but good old caution.. without this "warning" of what may transpire, I would not have known some precautions to take.

Earthquake Swarm at Yellowstone Supervolcano: Update

James Pethokoukis says:

So what is the latest with the ongoing earthquake swarm at the Yellowstone supervolcano caldera? Here is my just-completed email chat with Dr. Jacob Lowenstern of the U.S. Geological Survey, top scientist at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory:

How would you characterize the recent level of seismic level? Terms like "swarm" are pretty alarming. How would place this level of activity in historical context to what the USGS/YVO have tracked before?

Lowenstern: Swarm refers to seismicity when there isn't a typical mainshock/aftershock sequence. In other words, the events are more similar in size. Swarms are very common at Yellowstone. This one is clearly bigger than normal, and is the largest since 1985. There were also some large swarms in the 1970s, but the seismic network was much cruder at that time and we weren't able to locate earthquakes as well.

Me: What might be the markers/indicators leading up to a major volcanic/seismic event? Do you think this is leading to a volcanic eruption of some sort? What does your gut tell you?

Lowenstern: The most likely "bad" things that could happen would be triggering of a larger earthquake or some sort of steam explosion set off beneath the lake. At this point, any kind of volcanic eruption is a long shot. That's why we haven't called for a volcano advisory. None of our other monitoring indicators show anything that is nearly so anomalous as the earthquakes. At this point, the most likely thing is that the swarm will continue, perhaps for weeks, and then will end without any other related activity.

Me: It is all or nothing? I mean, do we either get lots of small quakes leading to nothing vs. a supervolcano? Could there be grades of eruptions or events?

Lowenstern: There are LOTS of things in between. There have been 80 volcanic eruptions at Yellowstone since the last "supervolcano" eruption 640,000 years ago and hundreds of large steam explosions, some near the Lake. It is FAR more likely that we'd have a steam explosion or a small volcanic eruption than a supereruption. By the way, the last time a volcanic eruption occurred at Yellowstone was 70,000 years ago.

Me: So if we were leading up to a major event, what sorts of indicators might we expect to see? We haven't seen one in a long time.

Lowenstern: It is certainly an issue that the truly major events are not known on a human timescale. We've mostly witnessed the precursors to smaller eruptions. But before any kind of an eruption we'd expect a whole lot of change in the ground deformation as measured by GPS. Nothing has changed over the past week. We'd also expect larger earthquakes and a bunch of steam explosions before magma ever made it to the surface.


Me: What do you make of this comment from one of my readers: "It's not that there's lots of quakes or even that they're all within a mile or two of each other, the worrisome part is that they are all a few hundred yards apart from the surface down to 7.2 km defining a single chimney under high pressure causing radial fractures along its entire length. NPS says the magma chamber is as high as 8 km and if it is that close to the chimney reaching to 7.2 km, we may be in for an eruption. We need more info on this location and USGS should deploy the best seismic testing equipment in the Lake NOW."

Lowenstern: That is pretty fanciful. We've got a team of seismologists looking at the data. The swarm is over a 7 km length right now. None of the earthquakes are that big, so it may be that fluid pressure is moving around as rocks break and thus breaking new rocks. It's also important to realize that when your seismic stations are 10s of kms apart, you can't get good resolution on the depth. The best located earthquakes right now are shallower than 5 km, but greater than 3 kms. Most of the shallower reported depths are probably inaccurate.

*P*E*A*C*E*

reply to post by Willbert

You Hope?

This is not fact.. this is premonition. That scientist also relies on unlikely which is also not fact.

Hi Willburt

Of course I hope this man is correct.
And, he works for the United States Geological Survey - if he isn’t right then who is?
Yet because no one controls Mother Nature, even scientists, I choose to have Hope in the predictions of the one who’s not an alarmist, with the most credentials.

I'm confused why he's not stated what the swarms are from if they are monitoring it... why keep the "facts" hidden? So as not to allow us to use our own perception of what may be happening?

There's no *hidden* anything.
There’s so many scientists and people watching, recording and reporting on these earthquakes you can spin around and point a stick and you’ll find someone else with more facts.

Scientists are only as useful until they are disproven..

I wouldn’t tell a scientist that.

Due to lack of facts.. I'm keeping an eye on what's transpiring there regardless of what some "scientist" thinks I should believe.

There are no lack of *facts*.
There is a lack of someone to accurately align the facts we have and say with 100% accuracy what will happen, or not.
No one can do that.
And yes, it’s good to keep an eye on things regardless of what anyone tells you - in any situation needing caution - not just volcanoes.

It's not fear mongering.. but good old caution.. without this "warning" of what may transpire, I would not have known some precautions to take.

I never said it was fear mongering.

Regardless, what physical precautions can anyone take to protect yourself in the event of a *super volcano* going off?
I don’t think many.
But, there are always spiritual and emotional precautions to take, and those are all that matter in the end anyway.

So if this whole warm of quakes caused a swarm of people to get in touch with their belief system, tell someone close to them they love them, to not take each day for granted but as a gift - then it was all worth it wasn’t it!

*P*E*A*C*E*


[edit on 6-1-2009 by silo13]

reply to post by whaaa

The US government dosen't have a very good track record in telling the citizens of this country the truth. Could this just be spin and disinfo to keep the rabble from going nutz?

Hi Waaa
Could be.
I'm glad it's not my call to make that decision.
I don't know what would be better - to tell - or not.
Those boots are too big for me to fill.

Would I want to be told?
Hell, I don't even know that!

*P*E*A*C*E*

reply to post by whoshotJR

damn I'm feeling even less safe now.
My own prediction for 2009! We have a higher chance of Yellowstone going boom then we do a an Obama assassination or them ruling he can't be potus.

WhoshotJR,

To quote you, "damn I'm even feeling less safe now"...



*P*E*A*C*E*

reply to post by whaaa

Volcanism is very complex, like the weather, and pays absolutely no attention to what has happened in the past.
Volcanism and plate tectonics are related but volcanism is like the crazy brother in law that can blow up and cause havoc for the slightest provocation.
Mt. St. Helens had a swarm of small earthquakes before the deadly eruption. In that case it was just a warning not a release of geologic forces.
Mother nature never pays much attention to the hopes or prayers of man.

All in all my problem I have is I tend to agree with you.
But, there is still hope.
Thanks for your post.

*P*E*A*C*E*

reply to post by ryox82


Hi Ryox82 - good to see you joining in!

I say there is nothing wrong with us looking at the data here, but don't get too wound up. Hell, if the thing really blows, we are toast anyways. Sit back, enjoy the show, and don't forget to just live without fear!

That's kind of what I meant in another post - I mean - what could we do anyway - we'd be *toast*.

*Live Without Fear*

Cant' get much better advice than that!

I hope you continue to post on ATS - your posts are most welcome and refreshing in the point of view.



*P*E*A*C*E*