Whats going on at yellowstone?

reply to post by redhatty

Yes, according to the experts you're absolutely right. As has been discussed extensively within this lonnng thread , a hydrothermal explosion is (say the scientists) a far more likely event than a volcanic one and in fact, historical data show that they have been the most common events within the Yellowstone region in the past. As I and others have mentioned previously and referenced to expert statements, they have also given the opinion that the most likely location for such an event is the northern region of Yellowstone Lake.

Edit: Please forgive me if the following sounds picky because I don't mean it to be and it's no criticism of yourself; it's just to clarify an important difference in terminology, especially if it's mentioned in any releases by scientists about Yellowstone: what scientists would be concerned about is a hydrothermal explosion, rather than a hydrothermal eruption. Hydrothermal eruptions happen all the time in Yellowstone, with Old Faithful being a good example. However, the word "explosion" manifests quite a different scenario and that's the problem, because they are comparatively uncommon with that area. According to expert studies, there are probably several very small ones each year that might hurl a few rocks around and make craters up to a few meters across, but a larger one could result in the same effect that made Yellowstone Lake bigger when a 5-km-wide (3 miles) crater was blasted out.

That's what we're hoping doesn't happen...

With all respect and with no offense intended,

Mike

[edit on 2/1/09 by JustMike]

Originally posted by maeveoc
Take a look at the world map, you can draw a straight line between the Puerto Rico quakes and the Southern Alaska quakes and guess what just happen to fall right on that line...yep, you guessed it Yellowstone.

I wonder if what we are actually witnessing is plate movement and that is what is causing all of this in the bigger picture?

World Quake Map
[edit on 1-1-2009 by maeveoc]

Hi there,

basically you're talking about the concept of "antipodal theory", which considers the effects of waves of energy (various kinds) from quakes travelling through the earth to trigger activity in other places on the globe. This is what I used to successfully predict a quake shortly before Christmas and I explain the process and method (and give some references and a descriptive map) in this post on the "Experiment in Alternative Forms of Earthquake Prediction" thread.

Although here in this particular Yellowstone thread were are not focused on predictions but rather observations, it is worth considering what possible effects seismic/volcanic activity in other regions may be having on Yellowstone -- and of course vice versa. Studying what is happening in Yellowstone only (ie in isolation) could lead us to miss some vital factors that are related to its current activity, so your observation is (IMHO) quite valid and worth considering. Ditto other posters who have mentioned/mused over the apparent increase in volcanic activity in other parts of the world -- or, to put it more precisely, the fact that some volcanoes have "awoken" and begun erupting again after long periods of quiescence. eg In the Kamchatkas.

Mike

[edit on 2/1/09 by JustMike]

It should be noted that all the earthquakes have been intense and concentrated in one area, which happens to be above the magma chamber. The scariest part of this story is the “harmonic tremors” that scientists have picked up. They are a low level constant rumbling, which usually indicates magma movement.

Ground surface deformation can give clues to magmatic processes at depth and is a reliable indicator of an impending eruption

"How will we know if we should start worrying? The real warning signs will be rapid changes in the shape of the ground as well as volcanic gases leaking from the ground, neither of which have been sighted—yet."

And is should be noted that a day and a half ago the USGS started pulling the eq's from their list and have not posted all of them that have occurred, according to other sites that have different seismographs and are noting more activity than USGS is publicly posting.

link

Apologies this link doesn't match the page that matches the text I posted. it was in this blog someplace and had more than the 3 comments showing.

Here's the link to the source
link

[edit on 2-1-2009 by violet]

reply to post by JustMike


I'm afraid to say it, but after watching one of "those" documentaries, I am now considering the possibility that this might be a precursory warning of something bigger.

It seems that there is also a large magma chamber under that spot too. And another off to the West, where other readings have been appearing.
IIRC the larger chamber is right under the space between YUF, LKW and YML.

I don't know, perhaps I was just suckered in with the sensationalist talk in the documentary, but it was backed up with relevant science too.

Nah, I'm still going with Hydrothermal. At least until we see bigger quakes.

But even then, I'm far enough away to survive the following years with some kitchen farming in grow-bags and a roost of chickens in the garage.



*Goes to search for a book called "Ultimate Indoor Farming"*

reply to post by Mushussu

Yes, the Juan de Fuca fault may well have an influence in all this. We have no way of determining how much, but it is known that as the Juna d. subducts under the Nth American plate and is turned into magma, that magma under great pressure has to go somewhere. Some of it most definitely has aided in the creation of the volcanoes along the PNW, but it is not unreasonable to consider that there may be "tentacles" of magma that reach much further inland.

There is the argument that the plume under Yellowstone is stationary relative to the globe and that the Nth American plate is moving across it, but even that does not deny the possibility that magma from the subducted part of the Juan de Fuca plate could be either adding to the plume or at least increasing the pressure on it.

Is it just me? The more I search for updated news stories on Yellowstone, the fewer I find dated later than Dec 30th. In fact, I tried to go back to a couple from yesterday that I had earmarked and they are gone.

reply to post by Penster


Please, stop with the conspiracies of they are hiding information. Saying that they are now removing news stories is going a bit far. A quick Google News search shows a whole slew of stories.

news.google.com...

Well after watching all this unfold, i have come to the thinking that something could happen in 4 minutes, 4 weeks, 4 months, or 4 years.

Let's just keep an eye on what is going on there, and maybe mothing will happen. Apparently there have been several days in this swarm cycle where activity dropped down to low levels and then it picked back up again.

With the northward treck of the quakes now extending to the northern lip of the lake, let's hope that things quiet down. If the activity flairs up again, along a northward line, then in my mind the possibility of a hydrothermal event increase....

All in all it is still very interesting, and will be even more interesting to see what happens to the activity over the next few days, and weeks..

A hydrothermal blast, explosion, with a possible “conduit” from the lake till nearly the extremity (what the eq’s suggest) of the hidden caldera is certainly not a good thing. Especially if that blast is going to happen in Yellow Stone lake.

I would rather go for nothing happening at all and wish everyone a happy new year.

Btw great thread and lots of good information.


One little remark.
Harmonic tremor means magma is on the move but that does not mean there is going to be an eruption.

Niddy

reply to post by dustystrings

sure
but what will happen if the eruptions (and thus eventually the magma) will move below the fault lines?
will they break even further?

Originally posted by MoorfNZ
For those using GEE - what are the three different readings for each station telling me - i.e. TA.G17A has three real-time readings suffixed BHE, BHN and BHZ?

I've just discovered that on 3-component broadband seismographic stations:

BHE detects seismic movements going along the east-west axis
BHN detects seismic movements going along the north-south axis
BHZ detects seismic movements going along the vertical (up-down) axis

This is my source.

Interesting reading - Earthquake-Volcano Interactions Over Long Distances and Time Scales

earthweb.ess.washington.edu...

reply to post by th0br0


It honestly seems to me that this is going to hydrothermal in nature. It looks that way from all of the data and background info that has been posted.

Yellowstone is an enigma, and after watching and keeping an eye on it for years now the only thing I can safely say is that just when you think something is going to happen it doesn't, and when you least expect it they are closing areas due to C02, and/or strange hydrothermal events...

In short... YVO is a major mystery, and even with todays technology we really don't know more than just taking educated stabs in the dark.

reply to post by detachedindividual

Well, the experts would agree with you that this could be precursory to something bigger, but they've said that the odds of the "big one" are very small indeed. So -- yeah. Going with the hydrothermal explosion scenario is good science. Doesn't mean it will happen though (and I know you know that but new readers might not), and even if it does the scale of it is hard to estimate.

That dome on the lake bottom is a concern. The reports state that it doesn't exceed a height of more than 30 metres (90-odd) feet above the surrounding lake floor, and apparently it's relatively small in area at about "the size of seven football fields" (so I read), but if it cracked open and let lake water in...well, it could get quite lively there.

It is interesting to note that lake outflow (discharge) is well up on the norm for this time of year so we'd have to wonder at it. It means either there is an increase in inflow to the lake (unlikely I think as it's frozen over), or else dome is getting bigger -- or some new feature is literally coming up. It's also interesting to note that peak outflows on that graph correspond to the times when the helicorders have been most active, eg on Dec 29, Dec 31, and right now.

Mike

Well, there are two quakes for 1/2/09 on there, that show up on all the webicorders. They just aren't triggering the auto response reports for some reason. They look small, but they are on there..

One thing that bugs me is all the noise on the webicorders on and around the lake.. if you look to this site theinterveners.org... (posted before in here), there isn't nearly so much "noise", and it goes back many years. Why is this snowstorm/windstorm causing the noise now? Surly the wind blew and it bilzzards occurred last year and the one before ad infinitum.......

That is one thing I don't get!

[edit on 2-1-2009 by dustystrings]

reply to post by JustMike


On the water outflow (I admit it's something I haven't really looked into), could it be simply the constant movement increasing the levels?
Surely constant ground movement would alter the stability of the lake and the movement would cause a momentary (but in this case each moment combines to create a constant) pressure and a change in level?
Like a plastic bowl filled to the brim, tap the side and it'll spill over.
Of course with such a large body of water such a thing would be multiplied accordingly, so what seems like an immense outflow change could be a reasonable response when scaled.

Did that make any sense?

I think I need to go and look into that data a little, see if I can learn a little more about the water aspect.

Hmm, maybe the geologists can turn up the "gain" of the webicorders in order to make them more sensitive, but why do that if the records are being corrupted by wind?

Doesn't make any sense

And searching theinterveners.org..., I have yet to find anything that resembles the activities of the last few days... 5 years of daily charts on there....

[edit on 2-1-2009 by dustystrings]

I've just noticed that the readings on LKW seem to be calming a little, but the readings on YML and YMP are the same if not increasing. Looking at a map displaying faults there is a sequence of faults running between those stations.

I know it had been mentioned that the events appeared to be moving North, but this is the first time I have seen clear evidence of that.

Just thought it was worth pointing out in case anyone hadn't noticed it. I haven't seen this contrast before now.

reply to post by detachedindividual

I've just started analyzing the data now and hopefully in a couple of hours I'll have something to present in graphic form that we can all then consider -- including the scenario you've mentioned. I don't think that seiche (water sloshing) would be responsible for the marked increase in discharge as the quakes are too small and the discharge appears to be more cyclic and in line with the overall (even non-quake) activity on the helicorders, but it could be a factor for sure and I thank you for raising it.

When I've got some data in a form that can be studied then I'll post it and we'll see what everything thinks. It'll take a while to prepare because I have to print off and hand-calibrate the graph/s and write up the charts, and also -- it's lunch time.

reply to post by detachedindividual

Please also check the other helicorders further afield. You'll see that some of them are showing activity well beyond what they have displayed in recent days. It would appear that this activity is spreading.

Regards,

Mike