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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO; commonly referred to as simply El Niño) is a global coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon
The atmospheric signature, the Southern Oscillation (SO) reflects the monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia
For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above average precipitation in the Northern Rockies, Northern California, and in southern and eastern regions of the Pacific Northwest. Below-average precipitation is expected across the southern tier, particularly in the southwestern and southeastern states.
ENSO conditions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean have now been neutral for several months, but some indices are more indicative of a cool ENSO phase. All sea surface temperature indices are neutral but there has been some cooling across the central tropical Pacific. Trade winds are now stronger than normal across the entire tropical Pacific, particularly in the western half of the basin and the SOI has been strongly positive since August, with the 30-day average at +17 on 29 November. There is now cooler-than-average water in the subsurface from the dateline to the South American coast. Our ENSO Wrap-up has more details.
Recent El Niños have occurred in 1986-1987, 1991-1992, 1993, 1994, 1997-1998, 2002-2003, 2004-2005 and 2006-2007
La Niña also formed in 1995, and in 1999-2000. The last La Niña was a minor one, and occurred 2000-2001.
Originally posted by gallopinghordes
Tell me all about the colder and wetter weather in Washington. We're tired of it but at least we won't have a drought this year.
Originally posted by beaverg
Nice, this does put the local fluctuations between bone chilling cold weather and the unseasonably warm weather in perspective. Overall I'd say it's an accurate depiction of the weather patterns for me locally. Looks like you put quite a bit of time in it too, good post.
Originally posted by Solomons
That particular el nino was on the news a while ago saying it would disrupt weather patterns..not a surprise to me,but i haven't been noticing much in the way of strange weather in uk.
[edit on 27-12-2008 by Solomons]
Originally posted by OzWeatherman
Originally posted by Solomons
That particular el nino was on the news a while ago saying it would disrupt weather patterns..not a surprise to me,but i haven't been noticing much in the way of strange weather in uk.
[edit on 27-12-2008 by Solomons]
Thats because the UK is only really affected by the ENSO that occurs in the Atlantic ocean. It occurs on a much smaller scale than the pacific ENSO. Anyway we are in a La Nina period rather than an El Nino one at the present
Originally posted by Lasheic
A friend of mine was recently telling me that it was due to Global Warming, and I tried to argue just the point you made (although, not quite in as much detail).
Originally posted by Lasheic
reply to post by OzWeatherman
Well, I have little doubt that global climate change is a real phenomena. The globe heats and cools in (regular?) cycles.
Again, I don't doubt that mankind is having some sort of an impact. It seems rather naive to me to think that cause and effect relationships halt when talking about mankind's changes to atmospheric composition - however minor they may or may not be.
That took several million years though, iirc, and insofar as our current trend in climate change - again, I don't doubt that it's happening. I just don't know to what degree that we're pushing it along, nor do I think the data is there to justify the doomsday scenarios.
As far as my friend is concerned, she's not very science minded. I doubt she's even understand the concept, and would continue to rely on news-bites and headlines to inform her. Again, to a degree, she seems to think the Earth is "alive" in a sense... a sort of Gaia... and that we're pissing it off. This is a concept that I wholly reject and until we'd be able to get past that - there's no point in arguing data.