Originally posted by Krollspell
reply to post by MariaUpsideTown
Why are the odds too great? How would you calculate these odds?
What if the shape of a human being is like a universal shape of success? I mean, the dinosaurs had hundreds of millions of years to develop into
intelligent beings with culture and handicraft, fx, but that didn't happen. We succeeded (by coincidence or because we were just better suited). If
indeed the human shape is a guarantee for success, then it makes perfect sense that most of the reported alien encounters are with aliens that look
somewhat human.
[edit on 14-1-2009 by Krollspell]
If our configuration is something along the lines of the "optimal" one then I hypothesize that abiogenesis is how life started, because for us to
reach the "golden mean" of evolution with our specific shape and configuration we would have to start evolving using the same rules as everyone
else. This would also be a definitive case against many of the worlds religions too.
But I digress. We were talking about assumptions people make about aliens and UFOs and discussing the logic and possibilities associated.
Another question that will remain unanswered:
If "reptilians" are aliens, why have they supposedly "been living here for a long time" ? Some people are also saying they evolved here, which
means they aren't aliens; except culturally, kind of like when you enter US customs, there is a line titled "aliens" for people coming from another
nationality.
In which case you Americans only have to look north to Canada which is home to about 30,000,000 aliens.
Thus; a request:
Can we redefine aliens as "extraterrestrial aliens" ?
Granted we are always discovering new things in the ocean and in rainforests, the amazon, etc; a massive population of "more intelligent than us"
(reptillians/whatever) beings all over the planet is unlikely as there would have been some historical or hard evidence available.
In reference to calculating the chance of life on other planets; (this fellow has his own theory:
www.jb.man.ac.uk...
But let us explore mine first)
First off there is an experiment on abiogenesis;
en.wikipedia.org...
First off, it took us 2.4 Billion years to go from the 3rd rock from the sun to, the 3rd rock from the sun with benefits (Where we are today).
So let's say it takes 2.4 billion years, we need to know how common the conditions for abiogenesis are;
www.asktheatheists.com...
"Approximately one in a trillion, for every 100 years"
We'll need to know how long "stuff" has been around for it to create abiogenesis conditions.
How old is the universe?
en.wikipedia.org...
13.8 Billion years
How many planets are there?
answers.yahoo.com...
Our galaxy has 4 trillion planets, the universe has roughly 125 billion galaxies.
4,000billion * 125billion = 500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Which is
5* 10^23 or "half a Yotta"
en.wikipedia.org...
What are the chances of an earthlike planet existing? (
www.brighthub.com... will get us better numbers
eventually)
How many planets are giant planet systems? most of them
newsinfo.iu.edu... lets be pessimistic and say that most =
95%
How many suns are similar to ours? (granted it might not be nesssesary for life to occur) one new one is found each year
"5% of giant planet systems could have similar conditions to earth"
www.physorg.com...
The final variable I can think of is that since the universe is 13.8 million years old, what is the average age of the planets themselves, because we
are "late bloomers" as far as the universe is concerned.
Let's just cut the age of the universe in half and be pessimistic about the average age of planets;
so we will say that we have 6.4 billion years to play with numbers for possible abiogenesis;
Let's review the variables really quick(assuming life always begins the way ours did):
6.4 billion years available
0.5 yotta planets
1/trillion chance of planet having life every 100 years
2.4 billion years for us to get to where we are now from abiogenesis
95% planets are giant planets
5% of giant planets could have similar conditions to earth
??% of stars are solo, and simliar to ours
I started doing the math, then realized that each star has a life expectancy, and the chances of a civilization existing at the same time as us also
limits this equation.
If someone can find out the last variable (% of stars like ours that are solo) and wants to do the math, go ahead, i'll work the equation out later
when I have time, so we can plug that last variable in.
There will be another variable as well which will be the "longevity" of an evolutionary line, or rather, how long life lasts before the nearby sun
destroys it.
We'll talk more soon I promise.