posted on Dec, 9 2008 @ 07:04 PM
This is actually a great idea. Only problem is that we have to issue debt in order to fund such an undertaking. While short term treasury rates are at
0, a 30 year term would command for at least 3%. In order to do this we would have to be able to create and print our own money. Then it would be the
perfect solution.
The goverment would buy every primary home mortgage (by decree) at full loan value, including all pooled mortgages and credit lines. They would
refinance them under this program at full loan value and would also originate all new primary mortgages. If you don't need help you just get to pay
1.5% equivelant payments on your original loan schedule. If you can't afford the new payment, which would basically be half of the old, then you lose
the house. Everyone would get a chance before this happened as everyone would qualify automatically for the refinance and given a bit of time(3
months) to start to paying. New originations would require proving creditworthiness.
For reference the payment on a 30 year $200,000 1.5% loan would be $690 a month. $440 actually goes toward principal the first month. If you currently
are paying 6.5% on a $200,000 your payments are around $1250 with less then $200 going to principal in the first payment.. This is a substantial
difference and would pretty much save most homeowners. If someone couldn't pay even this lower payment, then there really is no helping them. At
these rates the resale of the home would do quite well as house values would be put right where they were a few years ago. Some type of cap would have
to be out on these loans giving the goverment much of any profit if the property is resold which would discourage wholesale house price inflation past
the levels of the last bubble.
This would stop the foreclosures. It would give homeowners and renters more money to spend in the rest of the economy. It would allow the banks to get
full value for their loans. It would also allow them to raise funds to repay the bailout loans. They would also have much improved leverage ratios
allowing for a smooth transition to higher reserve requirements. The feared derivative meltdown would never happen although the banks with teh worst
practices would probably still go under, but with little effect on the economy.
Banks would be out of the loop on making profits on future primary home loans, except if they choose to act as a processor for a fixed fee. They would
still be free to make loans on virtually anything else. Basically all they are doing now is taking goverment money at low rates and relending it to us
at much higher rates. Lets cut out the middleman and cut the risk of these events reoccuring in the future. Alternatively they could do a 4% mortgage
for 90% of current value and have the same effect.