Has the Die Off begun?

As I scan and read the headlines in the newspaper and the web, the knot grows in my stomach as the prospect that the great Die-Off predicted by the Olduvai theory has begun!

The Olduvai Theory states that industrial society will only last 100 years (1930-2030) and the decline begins in earnest around 2008!

Olduvai Theory

The decline begins in three sections:

The Olduvai Slope (1979 - 1999) energy per capita declines by 0.33%
The Olduvai Slide (2000 - 2011) Middle East wars and Peaking Oil Production (2005 - conventional)
The Olduvai Cliff (2012 - 2030) Mass Black Outs, Starvation and Die Off!



Note 1: (1930) the beginning of Industrial Civilisation
Note 2: (1979) all time peak of world energy production per capita
Note 3: (1999) the end of cheap oil
Note 4: (2000) eruption of violence in the Middle East
Note 5: (2006) all-time peak in world oil production
Note 6: (2008) OPEC crossover when more than 50% of oil comes from the OPEC nations
Note 7: (2012) permanent blackouts spread worldwide
Note 8: (2030) world energy production falls to 1930 level



Right now we are in the slide and it appears we are, the US is involved in two wars in the middle east, EU is sending naval forces to deal with the Pirates of Somali, Iran and Israel are racheting up their rhetoric and Convential Oil Peaked in May of 2005. I would say we are in the slide and we were previously in the slope.

The slope was a slow decline of living standards, people used their houses for ATM's, wages stagnated, government budgets went into deficit spending. All the while the West tried to maintain its lifestyle even trying to export its inflation through globalization of the economy, using the cheap labor of Asia.

Now we are entering the end of the slide and headed towards the cliff!

Recently things have seemed to increase in magnitude, scope for the worst. The world is unable to put Humpty Dumpty back together and nothing seems to stop the global financial disaster that is upon us. The step decline in Oil which has essential peaked is suffering severe demand destruction!

There is also indications that species of animals are in a rapid die-off all over the globe.

Species Die-Off

Hunger, riots and unrest has descended upon the globe, from China to Africa. Right now about 1 in 6 go without enough food!

The Silent Tsunami!

I expect in the coming months and years you will see some of the greatest unrest especially in the third world and it will spread to the urban areas of the west. By the end of this period starvation may claim up to a billion or more people. We no longer have the wear with all to support almost 7 billion people, its sad, but unfortunately true we have overpopulated like bacteria in a petri dish. The link below has even more resources than I can mention to explain the coming die off.

The Die-Off!

Still, skeptical, consider during the next period there will be black outs and that right now hugh investment is need in our electrical grid to avoid this scenario.

Electrical Grid Failure?

Maybe, alternative energy and re-investment in the existing system can mitigate the problems and make the cliff only a steep slope, only time will tell.

My advices to everyone is to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. This is scarry stuff that I hope is not true, but the signs are all there!



[edit on 12/7/08 by mel1962]

[edit on 12/7/08 by mel1962]

[edit on 12/7/08 by mel1962]

[edit on 12/7/08 by mel1962]

[edit on 12/7/08 by mel1962]

[edit on 12/7/08 by mel1962]

That's really scary. I've felt for a while that our lifestyles are unsustainable, and I remember having the weirdest feeling a couple of years ago...and this is based purely on my instincts and not on any elegant theory...that we are headed backwards. I was in a Folk Museum in Belfast where they had reconstructed early 20th C housing as it had been, very basic, tiny little houses, with no technology to speak of, and I had immense future flashes that we would be going back to that kind of life.

We really need to look at individual alternatives now, and make sure that we can heat and eat on a personal basis, without looking to the grid to supply us. Not easy I know, but recently here we have all become very aware of how much it costs to keep warm in sub zeros. I think I'm feeling the same knot in my stomach that you had.

The really irritating issue is that we have all the knowledge and resources to make this solvable...we're just not investing in them or using them. I'm wondering how watertight this theory is....how easy is it to alter the path? Are there previous models of society that this has been based on? Isn't the technological progression of the last 100 years fairly unique? Sorry...too many questions...I hope you get lotst of replies. Star and flag for you.

Cait

[edit on 7-12-2008 by caitlinfae]

reply to post by caitlinfae


Yes, I am afraid the only people that will be untouched by this maybe the Amish!

But, it is very strange how suddenly, the move towards being green and sustainablity have entered the daily discourse. Perhaps away for the powers to be to mitigate the impacts here in the West. But, i am afraid the third world will be the sacraficial lamb of most of the mitigation at least in the beginning. No wonder they are building a wall on the Mexican Borders.

In deed, I heard 20,000 troops are going to be posted inside the US and they are building holding camps in the SW US. Its all starting to make since, but very creepy!

I really don't think that our world population growth is sustainable. Below is a graph showing world population growth over time, in my opinion what goes up, must come down and it appears world population is peeking.

Add to everything else, that there is a shortage of water. In fact over 1 billion our without potable water. The world may not only be fighting oil wars, but potential water wars.

Where's the water?

The largest countries in population, India and China could suffer the most and would be in the middle of the die off. If you look at the map below the West appears to have sufficient water, but the rapidly developing B.R.I.C. countrie are all in trouble except for Russia, see map below.



When you compare this to the world hunger map, its not surprising that the areas of hunger are matched closely with the potable water supplies. See map below.




Where ever the die off begins in earnest will be quickly isolated as disease and sanitary conditions quickly deteriorate as the dead can not be buried or burned quick enough. It will be a feeding fest for the scavengers, cannibalism may even be prevalent.

The countries most at risk appear to be located in Africa, but India is very vulnerable and China is not too far behind. Given the current economic situation, I would expect the worldwide food riots early in the year will resume with vengence as donations and food from the west dries up.

more fear mongering.

first of all. there is no food or water shortages. the big companies make these "shortages" to keep people buying more.

next over population doesn't exist. do the math yourself. the world is a big place dont be blinded by their agenda.

Originally posted by N. Tesla
more fear mongering.

first of all. there is no food or water shortages. the big companies make these "shortages" to keep people buying more.

next over population doesn't exist. do the math yourself. the world is a big place dont be blinded by their agenda.

I can't quite agree with you, there is too much evidence to the contrary. You can not have unrestrained growth forever, at some time the planet has to have a sustainable population.

Just ask the guy who cut down the last tree on Easter Island!

[edit on 12/7/08 by mel1962]

reply to post by mel1962


yes there are limits but i think its a little hasty to say we have reached ours. there is still much unused territory and supplies.

our world is one big economy and economy runs on supply and demand. make the people believe there is less demand goes up and with that so do sales.

reply to post by N. Tesla


I would have agreed with you a few years ago, but there is too much competition with the West and BRIC countries for resources. It was one of the reason for the run up in prices on Oil, Food and Metals.

Now I fear with Oil Peaking that the "Green Revolution" that has feed the world will be in decline, thus less food.

reply to post by N. Tesla



Agreed for the most part with ya. I know there are a few studies out there which show that if we were to change tactics slightly, a population of over 10 billion people could be sustained comfortably by changing the way we feed ourselves, WITHOUT using any more land than is already being used.

I am a big time meat eater, love my meat lol but i can change my ways if need be to sustain myself and family on a more fruit/veggie diet. Just a matter of changing attitudes, for everyone.

So, sure, if things are as they are CURRENTLY, there will be trouble eventually. But if people would get smart about things, it could be changed, and pretty easily.


People would rather be focused on doom and gloom, though, I guess, and think that we're all dead. I'd rather think that we could change if people start to speak up

reply to post by Jomina


I not focused on Doom and Gloom, rather its "looking beyond the horizon" to see what is down the road. I predicted the economic crisis over two years ago to my colleagues and was labeled 'doom and gloom", but not any more.

I am looking to see the future unfiltered by the Main Stream Media who never gets it right. I want to know, what the powers to be know, so that I can prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. Its in my families best interest to do this and share with others at ATS.

I hope that I am wrong, I really do! I didn't like being right of the financial meltdown and I just don't have a good feeling about the future.

lol

i thought it was 2012?

Originally posted by ConservativeJack
lol

i thought it was 2012?

Well, well Mr. C-Jack, I appreciate your humor . . . maybe those Mayans know more than we give them credit!

Originally posted by N. Tesla
reply to post by mel1962

 

yes there are limits but i think its a little hasty to say we have reached ours. there is still much unused territory and supplies.

our world is one big economy and economy runs on supply and demand. make the people believe there is less demand goes up and with that so do sales.

I don't know about your theory, but it looks like there maybe some food riots developing because of the economic situation in Africa and some say it may even hit the US.

Riots in Kenya????

US Food Riots in 2012 Predicted!

FYI - Gerald Celente has been very accurate in his predictions.

Originally posted by Jomina

Agreed for the most part with ya. I know there are a few studies out there which show that if we were to change tactics slightly, a population of over 10 billion people could be sustained comfortably by changing the way we feed ourselves, WITHOUT using any more land than is already being used.
... ...
So, sure, if things are as they are CURRENTLY, there will be trouble eventually. But if people would get smart about things, it could be changed, and pretty easily.

People would rather be focused on doom and gloom, though, I guess, and think that we're all dead. I'd rather think that we could change if people start to speak up

I think it's silly to think that oil production, climate change and efficient agriculture are linked to the decline or survival of the human species.
There is hunger, yes, but it's not caused by any of the above. The abundant yields of an American farmer will not make a starving person half way around the globe feel any less hungry.
The decline of our species though is DIRECTLY linked to it's overall medical condition. Here is some pertinent info:
- Some 50% of Africa's population is HIV+
- Much of the First World population has compromised immune systems
due to heavy metal and toxin build up in their bodies caused by the
consumption of processed foods and the environment, thus becoming
prone to cancers etc. etc.

I think when s*** hits the fan, it would be caused by some virus that will decimate homo sapiens to a small isolated surviving colony. This may well be some type of indiginous primitive tribe in South America or Melanesia.